Miami Heat Speculation Thread - 2020 and beyond...

[Seabass777]

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We need to sign this mother F, and give him a nice 2 year deal with a team option

[Wiltside]

Nice dream, but there's no way to fit all 4 in the salary cap. No way at all.

It's EITHER Oladipo OR Giannis. Unless Bam or Jimmy are gone.

I wouldn't put it completely out of the realm of possibility. If what's been said about Oladipo not really being interested in being the guy on a team and prioritising winning over money. I could see him coming. I saw this video today and thought it was pretty crazy that Oladipo is even speculating about a team with him Bam and Giannis together.

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We can retain Jimmy, Herro, Bam and Robinson and still sign Giannis to a max or close to it and still have roughly 17-19mil to offer a guy like Oladipo. Maybe the combination of playing alongside Jimmy, Bam, Giannis, Robinson and Herro plus playing in Miami where he wants to be, plus no state income tax are all enough for Oladipo to take that pay cut.

Might be wishful thinking but who knows.

Sadly, we can't. Look at the numbers.

For 2021-2022 (Projected cap 109Mil) :

Butler = $36,016,200
Ryan Anderson (streched) = $5,214,583
Herro = $4,004,280
Bam's cap hold - $15,346,476
Robinson's cap hold : $2,122,822

= 62.6 Mil

Giannis Max (as a free agent) = 32.7

= 95.3

That leaves 13.7 Mil in cap space (for Oladipo), and that's after cutting KZ Okplala, cutting Silva, Cutting 2020 draft pick, No cap holds for anyone and no other player on the roster. Obviously cutting players on rookie deal doesn't make any sense. And Obviously There's not enough $ for Dipo.

There’s a couple of assumptions built in there though.

- the cap stays at $109m. Possibly true but it could still potentially increase slightly.

- Fat Andy’s creative accounting. I recall some dodgy incentives being used for Dion, JJ and KO contracts to get them lower against the cap.

- you’re assuming that Bam/Giannis wouldn’t give back some small amount of salary each for Vic. If absolutely maximizing money isn’t the prime objective or motivator of either, I could see them doing a Wade and reducing their salary very slightly to accommodate a high level teammate (like Wade did for UD). Given the lack of state income tax, the net result for Vic may be similar to a higher deal elsewhere.

- Vic’s willingness to take around a $15m per deal. I could see him going for a 3/45 with a PO in the 3rd year and opting out and getting paid above market at that point to make up for the lower money at the start.

It would basically mean we fill out the remainder of the roster with minimum salary guys, but we’d have a fair few ring chasing vets that could play a role, as well as the buyout market later on in the season.

I dunno, just based on what you wrote I’m not seeing that many obstacles for it happening. Well, outside of the player committing and being ok to leave a little salary on the table

[3ballbomber]

Question....

Say Giannis requests a trade this offseason. Could a third team come in in order for us not to give up players such as Bam, Herro, Duncan & Jimmy?

[twix2500]

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[puppa bear]

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He has to say that. If you read between the lines on the quotes it sounds like he wants to be here, but also wants the financial security of a long-term deal. He’s a FA, so it’s what he’s supposed to say. It will help him get the most guaranteed money For next year.

[twix2500]

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[twix2500]

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[RexBoyWonder]

I wouldn't put it completely out of the realm of possibility. If what's been said about Oladipo not really being interested in being the guy on a team and prioritising winning over money. I could see him coming. I saw this video today and thought it was pretty crazy that Oladipo is even speculating about a team with him Bam and Giannis together.

Read on Twitter

We can retain Jimmy, Herro, Bam and Robinson and still sign Giannis to a max or close to it and still have roughly 17-19mil to offer a guy like Oladipo. Maybe the combination of playing alongside Jimmy, Bam, Giannis, Robinson and Herro plus playing in Miami where he wants to be, plus no state income tax are all enough for Oladipo to take that pay cut.

Might be wishful thinking but who knows.

Sadly, we can't. Look at the numbers.

For 2021-2022 (Projected cap 109Mil) :

Butler = $36,016,200
Ryan Anderson (streched) = $5,214,583
Herro = $4,004,280
Bam's cap hold - $15,346,476
Robinson's cap hold : $2,122,822

= 62.6 Mil

Giannis Max (as a free agent) = 32.7

= 95.3

That leaves 13.7 Mil in cap space (for Oladipo), and that's after cutting KZ Okplala, cutting Silva, Cutting 2020 draft pick, No cap holds for anyone and no other player on the roster. Obviously cutting players on rookie deal doesn't make any sense. And Obviously There's not enough $ for Dipo.

There’s a couple of assumptions built in there though.

- the cap stays at $109m. Possibly true but it could still potentially increase slightly.

- Fat Andy’s creative accounting. I recall some dodgy incentives being used for Dion, JJ and KO contracts to get them lower against the cap.

- you’re assuming that Bam/Giannis wouldn’t give back some small amount of salary each for Vic. If absolutely maximizing money isn’t the prime objective or motivator of either, I could see them doing a Wade and reducing their salary very slightly to accommodate a high level teammate (like Wade did for UD). Given the lack of state income tax, the net result for Vic may be similar to a higher deal elsewhere.

- Vic’s willingness to take around a $15m per deal. I could see him going for a 3/45 with a PO in the 3rd year and opting out and getting paid above market at that point to make up for the lower money at the start.

It would basically mean we fill out the remainder of the roster with minimum salary guys, but we’d have a fair few ring chasing vets that could play a role, as well as the buyout market later on in the season.

I dunno, just based on what you wrote I’m not seeing that many obstacles for it happening. Well, outside of the player committing and being ok to leave a little salary on the table

Well nothing is certain but I try to be realistic :

1. I doubt the cap will be much then 109$ considering the current situation. Even if it does end up a bit higher, It wouldn't really solve the issue unless in a very significant spike.

2. Again, creative Bonuses can buy you a little space, but nothing close to what we'll need to clear enough room for the "bubble big 4". BTW we all know Andy is fat, do we really need to refer to him as "fat Andy"

3. Wade gave up money for UD, his long time right man, brother from another mother. I don't expect Dipo to give up money for guys making more then him, guys he hardly knows and never played with.

4. Let's be real, we won't cut KZ. And we won't dump a rookie we just drafted in 2020. So that 13.7 number will actually be closer to 8 or 9 Mil in free cap space. I don't think it's realistic to think Bam or Giannis would give up enough guaranteed money for Dipo, a guy they have no history with and frankly a guy that isn't proven in the higher levels.

Unless Dipo has a really bad year which really kills his value for free agency, I can't see how we can squeeze him in.

[Bishop45]

There's going to be a chitstorm of fake Giannas rumors, as there already is. Need the Russian bots to start a fusillade of fake Harden rumors and see how Tillman reacts-- he seems like a lowkey conspiracy theorist

[Kobewade11]

I wouldn't put it completely out of the realm of possibility. If what's been said about Oladipo not really being interested in being the guy on a team and prioritising winning over money. I could see him coming. I saw this video today and thought it was pretty crazy that Oladipo is even speculating about a team with him Bam and Giannis together.

Read on Twitter

We can retain Jimmy, Herro, Bam and Robinson and still sign Giannis to a max or close to it and still have roughly 17-19mil to offer a guy like Oladipo. Maybe the combination of playing alongside Jimmy, Bam, Giannis, Robinson and Herro plus playing in Miami where he wants to be, plus no state income tax are all enough for Oladipo to take that pay cut.

Might be wishful thinking but who knows.

Just wanted to clarify something so people dont watch this clip and get too carried away. The host is Nigerian, Oladipo is Nigeran, I’m sure the question was posed what would it be like linking up with some of the top Nigerian players on one team (Giannis, Bam) and not just Oladipo speculating on his own.

[DayofMourning]

Yuck guys. So many replies quoting page long essays the past two pages. Be kind and snip out the posts you are not directly replying to, or use quotes. Its a PITA to scroll through the redundant posts on the ole phone.

[Bishop45]

Season is barely cold yet, but wow. We legit had the Basketball version of a Moneyball SZN--from start to finish

I meant to post in the farewell thread, but now that it comes to mind:

Watch on YouTube

[DayofMourning]

It was fun Jae, but you missed your paycheck from the Heat in my eyes when you crashed down to Earth as a shooter. I think you bring in cost controlled KZ, who has big time potential as a defender and let him develop over the course of the season. You lose a lot of quality vet savvy, but Jae deserves a quality long term deal, and in our case, we can't scrap our plans to give it to him.

[RonaldSeikaly]

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I want Dipo here, but he’s not in category of the other two. He’s a $25m player, not a max guy


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[Miami590]

How long is Oladipo’s contract? That bum is not worth foregoing 2021 FA


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Only his cap hold would interfere

[MHeat0279]

Also, yes there is a degree of overlap between Bam and Giannis, but there also was an overlap with LeBron and DWade. That worked Ok, because we had the right complimentary pieces around them to succeed. The FO would find those pieces (Duncan and Herro is a good place to start).

Obviously it’s different going big/big rather than guard/wing, but you get my drift. Giannis is not a ‘plus’ shooter from outside, but he did average 1.4 treys per game (albeit on like 30%). He can continue to improve that part of his game.

Of course there’s no guarantee we get him. That’s why this is a speculation thread. He very well could re-up with the Bucks as early as this offseason and put all the speculation to bed. But given the playoff failures, I’d be surprised if he didn’t test FA. We have as good a shot as anyone if it gets to that, and it’d be negligent of us to not put ourselves in that conversation.

If it turns out that Bam and Giannis are redundant and can’t truly fit together on a championship team, we have a great trade piece to get the talent that would fit.

lets not get too crazy thinking he will not work with Bam, Giannis will be a monster with this team and the Heat will be serious contenders with the Freak in the line up.

[MHeat0279]

Let the silly season begin. We are NOT getting Giannis via trade this year.

Hell no we not getting Giannis via trade this year. He hasn't shown NO indication that he even thinking about leaving. There no reason to be optimistic at all.

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i think he is mentally committed to the Bucks for this season, if things do not work out this year for them i see him bolting to another team. The best thing we can hope for is for the Bucks to disappoint again in the playoffs, that will be the nail in the coffin for Giannis to leave.

[MHeat0279]

is it just me or if somebody can explain it, but i do not see Bam as a Max player yet, i think until he develops a nice jumper he should not be considered for a Max salary, but on the other hand scrubs are getting decent amount of millions per year, so who knows

[greg4012]

Let's talk about Christian Wood

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Smells like Hassan 2.0

I don't trust his 3 point shot, and he's a bad passer, which could easily makes his useless. Not Much of a defender.

Ibaka/Gallo are much safer bets.

He's the kind of guy I would happily try for the vet min, NOT the guy I'd invest real money in.

Disagree on a lot of this, but I get the concern of investing money in a small track record.

It's a very unique situation to potentially get a rising young asset without the obstacle of restricted free agency.

I understand concern over the Hassan phenomenon of a guy that was undrafted for a reason and flashed really great things but still had fatal flaws or couldn't put it all together.

But, as a counter, I think the Hassan experience shouldn't lead one to say that we should be dismissive of guys with great profiles flashing talent because they went undrafted (or second round) and/or bounced around teams and G League. Then we would be dismissing the likes of Nunn and Duncan Robinson, as well.

In those instances, fit needs to be prioritized. I think his fit is potentially perfect. I think his defensive deficiencies are overblown. For me, it comes down to 2 things with Wood:

(1) If the 3 ball is legit or not -- can't say I know for sure, but that's enticing if so.
(2) Understanding the person and the circumstances as to what caused him to bounce around at the end of rosters for a few years. I don't have that info. But, I don't need to. Miami Heat do need to if they want to adequately assess the situation.

I love the prospects of Ibaka or Gallo. In a vacuum, I prefer them. Neither will be cheap and IDK that either will accept one year deals. If the info regarding points 1 and 2 is positive based on the Heat's assessment (operating with more info than I have. I would probably rather add Christian Wood on a multi-year deal than the aging Gallo or Ibaka

[greg4012]

Need to give Boogie Cousins a long hard look if he’s healthy. Healthy Boogie and Bam front court is exactly what we need.

Need more versatility than Boogie offers to count on someone who will legitimately be a top 7 rotation player in the playoffs. But he's a nice Meyers upgrade for cheap