Trade Talk (Part 14): 2023-24 Edition

[shrink]

Could the Over 38 Rule be of our benefit, you think?

No. If we sign him to 3 years at 7 million a year, then we pay him 10.5, 10.5 and 0. That is bad in every year we need him, and he is probably retired by the third year.

Well said, and this specifically was what the rule was meant to prevent - compensation after retirement. But before they closed that loophole, that was probably the closest thing to frankenwolf’s deferred salary.

Interestingly, Mike’s birthday is October 11th, and the season is considered to start on Oct 1, so he’ll be over 38 for most of his second season, but he won’t be considered to be in the “old group” in his next two seasons. He’s still a kid!

[TimberKat]

I think we could sign Conley to 2 years at 8m each and we will still be under 2nd Apron. I don't think Jones is better and we just need some reliable backup. After two years, Gobert's contract will drop off and we have more flexibility.

This number is from spotrac is for 11 players and includes Shake, Troy, and Josh who are all unguaranteed. $185,361,322

That is before our draft picks are signed and without Kyle or Mike. The tax line is 172 million and the 2nd apron is 190 million.

I was counting on the 2nd is higher than 190m (like 195m) because I read earlier that it was base on a very conservative cap estimate. We will also drop Milton. Likely drop Moore and Minott for cheaper 2nd rounder or 2 way contract. Miller will take KA's spot. Our 10 players will be Ant, KAT, Gobert, JMcD, Conley, Naz, NAW, TBJ, Miller, JMcL. Plus 4 cheapest filler possible.

[winforlose]

I think we could sign Conley to 2 years at 8m each and we will still be under 2nd Apron. I don't think Jones is better and we just need some reliable backup. After two years, Gobert's contract will drop off and we have more flexibility.

This number is from spotrac is for 11 players and includes Shake, Troy, and Josh who are all unguaranteed. $185,361,322

That is before our draft picks are signed and without Kyle or Mike. The tax line is 172 million and the 2nd apron is 190 million.

I was counting on the 2nd is higher than 190m (like 195m) because I read earlier that it was base on a very conservative cap estimate. We will also drop Milton. Likely drop Moore and Minott for cheaper 2nd rounder or 2 way contract. Miller will take KA's spot. Our 10 players will be Ant, KAT, Gobert, JMcD, Conley, Naz, NAW, TBJ, Miller, JMcL. Plus 4 cheapest filler possible.

Minott is plenty cheap. We keep him. We will likely trade Moore into space because he is guaranteed for next year. Miller instead of Kyle seems likely.

[tester551]

I wonder if Jevon Carter would be available if Bulls start changing the team

they just signed him during offseason to 2+1 deal so doesn't seem likely they would move him but he's only playing 14 mpg and they have other guard options

as crazy as it sounds, Carter would become the Wolves best perimeter defender, all due respect to NAW, Jaden. JC is absolute pitbull

Blazer fan coming to see what yall need/want as the trade deadline approaches.

Sounds like you need a backup PG? (Carter or Jones?)

Do you think your ownership would allow the team to go into the tax?
What would you be willing to give up for the PG?

[winforlose]

I wonder if Jevon Carter would be available if Bulls start changing the team

they just signed him during offseason to 2+1 deal so doesn't seem likely they would move him but he's only playing 14 mpg and they have other guard options

as crazy as it sounds, Carter would become the Wolves best perimeter defender, all due respect to NAW, Jaden. JC is absolute pitbull

Blazer fan coming to see what yall need/want as the trade deadline approaches.

Sounds like you need a backup PG? (Carter or Jones?)

Do you think your ownership would allow the team to go into the tax?
What would you be willing to give up for the PG?

Wolves are very likely to spend the next seasons in the tax, so trying to avoid repeater starting this season. It is very unlikely we enter the tax.

Wendell Moore Jr, Shake Milton, Kyle Anderson, and Luka Garza (two way but drops 38 in G fairly regularly.)

Would probably be a 2 for 1, not a 3 for 1 as we only have 822k before the tax with Mike Conley’s unlikely incentive seeming likely.

[wolves_89]

I wonder if Jevon Carter would be available if Bulls start changing the team

they just signed him during offseason to 2+1 deal so doesn't seem likely they would move him but he's only playing 14 mpg and they have other guard options

as crazy as it sounds, Carter would become the Wolves best perimeter defender, all due respect to NAW, Jaden. JC is absolute pitbull

Blazer fan coming to see what yall need/want as the trade deadline approaches.

Sounds like you need a backup PG? (Carter or Jones?)

Do you think your ownership would allow the team to go into the tax?
What would you be willing to give up for the PG?

The Wolves needs are depth PG and volume 3pt shooter, though I'm becoming a bit doubtful that we will make a trade for anyone that will end up in the regular rotation.

As far as the luxury tax, I would be very surprised if the team went over the line this season. The Wolves are almost certain to be a tax team for 2024-25 and 2025-26, so to avoid the repeater tax the team needs to stay under the luxury tax line this season.

I think Tyus Jones is a pipe dream as it would require trading Kyle Anderson and that seems less and less likely as the season progresses. Carter would be a nice pickup, but that would require the Bulls being willing to trade him for 2nd(s).

The problem with the trade deadline is that the Wolves don't have much matching salary, need to stay under the luxury tax line, and don't have any 1sts to trade.

[Danimals]

I don’t think we will extend Mike during the season. I think we will wait to see if Ant gets all NBA, and where the 2nd apron ends up for next season. Then see what we can offer him and stay under the 2nd apron.

I think the max the cap can go up is 10%. If that happens what will the 2nd apron be next year? Does someone know that calculation?

[shrink]

I think the max the cap can go up is 10%. If that happens what will the 2nd apron be next year? Does someone know that calculation?

I did some math, but I didn’t double check.

With the modest 4.4% increase, the second apron would be $190.84
With a 10% increase (the highest possible percentage with cap smoothing), the second apron would be $201 mil

Both KAT and Ant’s deals are tied to the 2024 salary cap, so both of their numbers would rise if the NBA uses the 10% number. If the salary cap would go from it’s current estimate at $142 mil (4.4%) to $149.6 (10%), then Towns first year at 35% of the cap would go from $49.7 to $52.4 mil. Ant’s first year at 25% would be $35.5 mil at (4.4%) and $37.4 mil at (10%). If Ant made All NBA, he would get 30% of the cap, so those numbers would be $42.6 and $44.9.

Please note that if the final number is 10%, we gain about an additional $10 mil under the second apron, however, raises for KAT and Ant will use up $4.6 of it. Still, that’s better for our flexibility, but maybe not ARod and Lore’s bank account, since raises are based on the first year of new contracts.

[winforlose]

I think the max the cap can go up is 10%. If that happens what will the 2nd apron be next year? Does someone know that calculation?

I did some math, but I didn’t double check.

With the modest 4.4% increase, the second apron would be $190.84
With a 10% increase (the highest possible percentage with cap smoothing), the second apron would be $201 mil

Both KAT and Ant’s deals are tied to the 2024 salary cap, so both of their numbers would rise if the NBA uses the 10% number. If the salary cap would go from it’s current estimate at $142 mil (4.4%) to $149.6 (10%), then Towns first year at 35% of the cap would go from $49.7 to $52.4 mil. Ant’s first year at 25% would be $35.5 mil at (4.4%) and $37.4 mil at (10%). If Ant made All NBA, he would get 30% of the cap, so those numbers would be $42.6 and $44.9.

Please note that if the final number is 10%, we gain about an additional $10 mil under the second apron, however, raises for KAT and Ant will use up $4.6 of it. Still, that’s better for our flexibility, but maybe not ARod and Lore’s bank account, since raises are based on the first year of new contracts.

So I think it was you who told me that now teams can sign free agents with trade exemptions. I am wondering if teams are allowed to combine trade exemptions as part of the process. For example, we trade Wendell Moore Jr for a 2nd round pick in 2030. Now we have his TPE and Dlo’s TPE. Can we use both on a buyout player?

[shrink]

So I think it was you who told me that now teams can sign free agents with trade exemptions. I am wondering if teams are allowed to combine trade exemptions as part of the process. For example, we trade Wendell Moore Jr for a 2nd round pick in 2030. Now we have his TPE and Dlo’s TPE. Can we use both on a buyout player?

I like the way you’re thinking, but no, they didn’t change that rule. Can’t combine exceptions.

[frankenwolf]

Question for capologists out there: Hypothetically, can we sign MC to a 3 year deal @ $45M total and then defer $30M, similar to the Ohteni or the Mets/Bobby Bonilla deal, so that his actual number is $5M/year?

Thanks, I'll hang up and listen

Nice try...

EDIT: Actually, hold on...we may have the Over 38 Rule come into play.

Posting my source below. According to the source because Mike’s birthday is after October 1, (October 11 is his actual birthday,) a 2 year extension does not trigger the rule. A 3 year extension would.

https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2018/06/hoops-rumors-glossary-over-38-rule.html

Thanks you guys and BlackMac for the info. It was just a shot

[Saltine]

Best case scenario with the cap going up 10%; the Wolves will have about $15 million to work with while staying below the second apron... and need to resign Kyle, Mike and lil jmac. If they are really lucky Mike will resign for the vet minimum (~$3.5m, only $2m against cap), which is about the only way they can keep Kyle.

[winforlose]

Best case scenario with the cap going up 10%; the Wolves will have about $15 million to work with while staying below the second apron... and need to resign Kyle, Mike and lil jmac. If they are really lucky Mike will resign for the vet minimum (~$3.5m, only $2m against cap), which is about the only way they can keep Kyle.

Kyle might take a pay cut to stay. I was thinking about it.

1. He is having a really bad offensive year.

2. If Kyle is not traded he will have 2 years with the Wolves. One more year, and he has full bird rights.

3. Playing championship basketball (or at least contending for one,) is not something easy to walk away from.

4. Assuming the Rudy stuff is buried he might be happy here.

[Klomp]

I think Kyle could be renegotiated down to the Milton/Brown range, while Conley could get a new deal around the Naz/current Kyle deal.

[winforlose]

I mentioned this in the former wolves thread, but should also raise it here. Roco is a likely buyout player as he is an expiring 12+ million and Philly would probably want to upgrade before the playoffs. If Roco is moved and bought out, he might be good playoff depth. Especially if we move Moore Jr for cap space.

[shrink]

Could Austin Rivers be our back up PG?

Knows the team and what Finch wants to run. He’d have a $1.4 mil cap hit for the rest of the season.

[winforlose]

Could Austin Rivers be our back up PG?

Knows the team and what Finch wants to run. He’d have a $1.4 mil cap hit for the rest of the season.

No. Just no. Please no.

[wolves_89]

Could Austin Rivers be our back up PG?

Knows the team and what Finch wants to run. He’d have a $1.4 mil cap hit for the rest of the season.

It seems like a bad idea to add a guy that no team in the NBA thinks is worth a minimum contract.

[shrink]

Could Austin Rivers be our back up PG?

Knows the team and what Finch wants to run. He’d have a $1.4 mil cap hit for the rest of the season.

It seems like a bad idea to add a guy that no team in the NBA thinks is worth a minimum contract.

Do we? Is he better than MacLaughlin as Conley insurance?

[wolves_89]

Could Austin Rivers be our back up PG?

Knows the team and what Finch wants to run. He’d have a $1.4 mil cap hit for the rest of the season.

It seems like a bad idea to add a guy that no team in the NBA thinks is worth a minimum contract.

Do we? Is he better than MacLaughlin as Conley insurance?

I'm not a McLauglin fan, but he's significantly better than Rivers. I'm not even all that sure that Rivers would be better than Nix.