Rui Hachimura 2.0

[DCZards]

PIF, I’m going to bring up a question I raised a few days ago regarding Kuz. Is Rui a SF or PF? Which one of those positions is he playing when he’s on the court with Kuz or Deni?

Personally, I find it increasingly useless (maybe even misleading) to evaluate players by position when one so-called PF might play a very different role for his team than another. Most people would label both Kuz and Brandon Clarke PFs, but just think about how different their roles and skill sets are. So it stands to reason their #s might differ accordingly.

[nate33]

PIF, I’m going to bring up a question I raised a few days ago regarding Kuz. Is Rui a SF or PF? Which one of those positions is he playing when he’s on the court with Kuz or Deni?

Personally, I find it increasingly useless (maybe even misleading) to evaluate players by position when one so-called PF might play a very different role for his team than another. Most people would label both Kuz and Brandon Clark PFs, but just think about how different their roles and skill sets are. So it stands to reason their #s might differ accordingly.

I agree with all of this. At the very least, PIF ought to be averaging the production of a SF and a PF when coming up with a comp for Kuzma. It makes little sense to compare Kuzma to a guy like Clarke because the occupy such different roles and different areas on the basketball court.

Frankly, PIF's system that apparently compares guys by their nominal position, which is mostly determined by size, is totally outdated in today's NBA. I've seen other advanced analyses where they compare guys by role, such as "post player", "primary ball handler", "movement shooter", "rim runner", "stationary shooter", etc., regardless of their height. That makes a lot more sense to me.

[Kanyewest]

Who you guys taking Rui, Derrick Jones or Daniel House?

I can't wait for posters to double down on their bad takes because they can't admit they were wrong. Btw, for all the people who say that removing Hachimura from team is addition via substraction...

Read on Twitter

It's worth pointing out that in 7 of those 13 losses without Rui, we were also missing Beal. I'd say the absence of Rui hurts when Beal isn't around, because we really lack scoring. But if Beal plays, the absence of Rui hasn't been that significant of a factor.

Agreed. Also the bench play without Rui is much worse without Delon Wright.

[doclinkin]

Bro got angry because of the trade news

I think it notable that both Sacto and PHX look to have significant cap room opening up. Both Rui and Kuz played well in front of these teams. Saying "Trade for me? No. Too bad for you. Somebody's gonna pay me."

Kuz especially given that both teams have been linked to him in trade rumors. He is auditioning for a bidding war.

[payitforward]

But, we have to judge Rui -- as we would any other player! -- by his numbers over a longer stretch than 2 games.

What a Rui hater ...... he has made 88/1774 (48 percent),141/395 (36 percent.3pt) ,319/409 (FT) as an NBA player. You must think its easy to be a forward and come in the NBA and make baskets easily. Guaranteed this is more than a 2 game stretch. This is a 24 yr old player doing what he's been doing since he got in the NBA,score baskets efficiently. We know why Rui gets so much hate here with all the dog whistles and talk about his intelligence . He has to do better to get the recognition others get for less production.

You know... I've tried being polite w/ you. Civil. It's no use.

Everything you write above is false. Not the numbers but what they mean. Rui's 3 pt % is below average -- not average & not above average but below average for a 4 (also for a 3). That is not evidence that he can "score baskets efficiently." It's proof that so far he can't.

His 2 pt FG% on his career is .518. Average for a 4 is .56 -- so far he can't score baskets efficiently in that way either. His career FT%, on the other hand is .780 -- that's a bit above the average for a PF.

Talk is cheap -- yours is I mean. Numbers don't lie. Rui was great the other night -- absolutely fantastic. You know how a person can tell that is the truth? By looking at the numbers.

You know how a person can tell that you have not the faintest idea of what you're talking about? Look at the numbers. That's what they say -- that you are someone who has no idea what he's talking about.

Btw, no one talks about Rui's intelligence. Sometimes people talk about his bbiq, which has nothing whatever to do with his intelligence. Rui came late to the game; his deficient bbiq is obvious to anyone who has watched a lot of basketball for a long time -- which I've done.

I've watched a whole lot more basketball than you, for example. No doubt about that. Tell me, for example, did you watch Bill Russell & the Dons win the national title back in the 1950s? I did. Live. I was at the championship game.

[DCZards]

Hey PIF, you haven’t responded to the question I’ve raised at least twice about the value and wisdom of comparing the stats of NBA players based on “position” in this modern age of “positionless” bball.

Should we be comparing the stats of, for example, “PFs” who have very different oncourt roles and responsibilities?

What say you?

[doclinkin]

Also what site do you use to determine who is and is not PF vs SF. And what the 'averages' are for each position.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

But, we have to judge Rui -- as we would any other player! -- by his numbers over a longer stretch than 2 games.

What a Rui hater ...... he has made 88/1774 (48 percent),141/395 (36 percent.3pt) ,319/409 (FT) as an NBA player. You must think its easy to be a forward and come in the NBA and make baskets easily. Guaranteed this is more than a 2 game stretch. This is a 24 yr old player doing what he's been doing since he got in the NBA,score baskets efficiently. We know why Rui gets so much hate here with all the dog whistles and talk about his intelligence . He has to do better to get the recognition others get for less production.

You know... I've tried being polite w/ you. Civil. It's no use.

Everything you write above is false. Not the numbers but what they mean. Rui's 3 pt % is below average -- not average & not above average but below average for a 4 (also for a 3). That is not evidence that he can "score baskets efficiently." It's proof that so far he can't.

His 2 pt FG% on his career is .518. Average for a 4 is .56 -- so far he can't score baskets efficiently in that way either. His career FT%, on the other hand is .780 -- that's a bit above the average for a PF.

Talk is cheap -- yours is I mean. Numbers don't lie. Rui was great the other night -- absolutely fantastic. You know how a person can tell that is the truth? By looking at the numbers.

You know how a person can tell that you have not the faintest idea of what you're talking about? Look at the numbers. That's what they say -- that you are someone who has no idea what he's talking about.

Btw, no one talks about Rui's intelligence. Sometimes people talk about his bbiq, which has nothing whatever to do with his intelligence. Rui came late to the game; his deficient bbiq is obvious to anyone who has watched a lot of basketball for a long time -- which I've done.

I've watched a whole lot more basketball than you, for example. No doubt about that. Tell me, for example, did you watch Bill Russell & the Dons win the national title back in the 1950s? I did. Live. I was at the championship game.

MC Hammer put it best, “(You) Can’t touch this!”

PIF, we’re blessed to have someone wise of years engage in such spirited debate. You’ve touched my life personally. God is Good All the Time. Happy New Year.

I see Rui as a scoring specialist (only) He’s very good at a specific few things and (oblivious) deficient in others.

PIF, was gonna make a joke about “How accurate were the chariot races in Ben Hur”. But I want to always be respectful.

[AFM]

Good god if my calculations are correct....PIF is 120 years old!

[payitforward]

PIF, I’m going to bring up a question I raised a few days ago regarding Kuz. Is Rui a SF or PF? Which one of those positions is he playing when he’s on the court with Kuz or Deni?

Personally, I find it increasingly useless (maybe even misleading) to evaluate players by position when one so-called PF might play a very different role for his team than another. Most people would label both Kuz and Brandon Clark PFs, but just think about how different their roles and skill sets are. So it stands to reason their #s might differ accordingly.

I agree with all of this. At the very least, PIF ought to be averaging the production of a SF and a PF when coming up with a comp for Kuzma. It makes little sense to compare Kuzma to a guy like Clarke because the occupy such different roles and different areas on the basketball court.

Frankly, PIF's system that apparently compares guys by their nominal position, which is mostly determined by size, is totally outdated in today's NBA. I've seen other advanced analyses where they compare guys by role, such as "post player", "primary ball handler", "movement shooter", "rim runner", "stationary shooter", etc., regardless of their height. That makes a lot more sense to me.

Look... first of all, I have written at least 100 times that NO set of stats totally suffices as a measurement of a player. Not of Kuz, & not of anyone else either.

When you look at these statistical metrics, all you can do is compare one to another -- not to reality but to an alternate metric.

& what would be a good basis of comparison? How about using their statistical relationship to wins -- i.e. do regression analysis to discover that relationship. If there's an obvious problem there -- as for example with PER -- then look at another.

As far as the fact that roles differ -- no doubt they do. But, even in the most extreme example (say between Ja Morant & Anthony Davis), we still want to be able to ask & answer this question: "who is a better NBA player, AD or JM?"

Not to mention, of course, that the 2 people to whom I'm responding also have their ideas of who's a "superstar," who's a "star", who's "an above average starter," who's "a journeyman," etc. & both use the same kinds of numbers I or anyone would use to come up with those designations.

Similarly, not 2 weeks ago, nate, you quoted Kuz's numbers in what was then the last (I think) 15 games -- the very same numbers I use!! -- to support the idea that he was playing really well.

Adjustments based on position also make sense. You don't ask that a SG get the number of rebounds you want a Center to get! Still, in this case too, any sensible person keeps in mind that the numbers will never describe someone 100% -- most obviously they aren't able to properly weigh defense, but it's also true that they don't capture dependencies. I.e. cases where what A does makes something easier for B.

In the case of Kuzma, however, it really doesn't much matter what way you look at his performance. He's not good compared to an average NBA 3 or 4.

Here's the thing: winning a basketball comes down, essentially, to two things. The first is scoring efficiency (TS%), the second is number of opportunities to score. If this is not utterly obvious, there's no basis for discussion.

If your team posts a higher TS% than the opposing team, you have a chance to win. If your team gives itself more chances to score (measured by FGAs & 1/2 FTAs) you have a chance to win. If you do both, it is mathematically impossible to lose. If you do neither, it is mathematically impossible to win.

Guys who shoot a below average TS% (like Kuz), turn the ball over more than average (like Kuz), & get fewer steals than average (like Kuz) help you lose not win. Period.

The 3 things Kuz does best -- defensive boards, assists, holding down # of fouls -- also help. But not nearly as much as the above.

The other notable aspect of his play -- above average number of points per time on the floor -- is simply NOT a measure of how good a player is. Not independent of that player's TS%.

Kyle Kuzma isn't a very good player, I'm sorry. You can find players similar to him in style who are good. You can find players different in style who are good. Neither affects the conclusion.

[prime1time]

Most of the criticism that Hachimura receives on this board is criticism of his role, not criticism of him as a player. There are posters on this board who simply see no value in people who can come off the bench, score and do nothing else well. Go down the list of any 6th man scorer and they would probably trash them.

[tleikheen]

There are posters on this board who simply see no value in people who can come off the bench, score and do nothing else well. Go down the list of any 6th man scorer and they would probably trash them.

Since training camp Rui has been praised by his team mates but what team mates think of Rui is not to be trusted by Rui haters who hover to trash his play and intelligence.
Minus his 1st game back where he was on a minutes restriction Rui is avg 20 ppg in 25 mpg. How many of you think its not a coincidence Rui is playing good now that Barton is out of the rotation?

[doclinkin]

PIF, was gonna make a joke about “How accurate were the chariot races in Ben Hur”. But I want to always be respectful.

HA!

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Happy New Year, doc!

[doclinkin]

How many of you think its not a coincidence Rui is playing good now that Barton is out of the rotation?

This part I absolutely agree with. Rui is not helped by playing next to deficient players. Also playing next to Delon Wright or Jordan Goodwin have helped hide Rui's particular shortfall: team play and defense.

My feeling with Rui is, he has the talent to be so much better. He lags behind in on court awareness, and in my opinion his offseason should be spent not at 'Big Guard Camp" but in a low-post skills and frontcourt camp. He needs to know how to box out, set solid screens, create space to get his shot off underneath, and most importantly be effective on positional defense. The knock on his BBIQ has nothing to do with his intelligence, it is his late exposure to the game. He learned offense by watching highlights of Carmelo Anthony in FIBA play, and patterned his game off of him. Learned team ball playing with the notoriously poor Japanese national team. Learned college ball while learning English, and literally did not understand what his coaches were saying in time-outs and practice.

My read on Rui is that he learns by observation and imitation. But you can't learn team defense off videos, he needs a defensive role-model to learn how to utilize his innate gifts. His habits on that side of the ball are improving, but have been atrocious. For the first few years it looks like he literally did not know what to do on defense if he was not matched up on the perimeter. His defense amounted to: Stand around watching, make a half hearted swipe at the ball if a player passed by him. He plays well in on-ball defense, except that he is too easy to get picked off the ball on a switch to set up whatever match-up opponents want.

My thing on Rui has been, maybe he is the 'late bloomer' that Tommy said he is when he drafted him. And if so maybe we re-ink him at a rate that proves to be a bargain when he does start to put it all together. He has been a collection of maybes. Previously my thought has been maybe other teams look at the possibilities and offer a better return in trade than his on court effect has been, gambling that they can get more out of him. The recent nixed trade swaps seem to show that yeah scouts have added up the maybes to a net negative. So no, we don't get any value out of trading him. The way get value then: ink him low, then develop him. If you pay him based on projections off what he does well, you don't get the best value. You have to be straight up about his deficiencies. His negative effect on team play is not an illusion or a fluke.

Rui can score. He has improved on figuring out what is and is not a good shot. Veterans say the hardest skill to learn, in order to become a star, is consistency of excellence. Any player can have a good game, or even a streak of good games. You have to be able to look at what went well in that streak, then do more of that, stack a streak on top of a streak until you have a career. Rui's career has been a do-si-do in improving skills -- that backslide when the team personnel or coaches change. Personally I don't think Rui should be satisfied with being a bench scorer. I don't think fans should be either. He has starter talent. Star talent even. IF he could work to develop it. The place where he needs the most development is not as a face-up scorer, but in using his remarkable strength, soft hands, powerful base, athletic ability, to go get the ball. Rebound. Put his body on somebody. Box out. Make a sharp and timely cut. Do something to help the team even when the ball is not in his hands. At both ends. At no point in the game should he be passive, to stand around wait for something to happen. He can show aggressive action when he has the ball, or is matched-up one on one. You want him to be able to show that same energy consistently. The good thing is that if his primary shortfall is inexperience, that is the one area where he can improve just by lasting long enough in the game to figure it out. And the fact that he can score efficiently means that as long as he stays healthy he will keep getting chances.

But I mean, I don't think his fans should be satisfied that his 'role' is as a scorer who gives up at the defensive end more points than he adds on offense when the ball finds him. His fans more than anybody should be cheering him to go out there and make good things happen. Every minute he is on court. And take those minutes. Make it impossible not to play him.

[payitforward]

Good god if my calculations are correct....PIF is 120 years old!

That game was in the Spring of 1956. I was 13 at the time. Does that help place my age?

[payitforward]

Most of the criticism that Hachimura receives on this board is criticism of his role, not criticism of him as a player. There are posters on this board who simply see no value in people who can come off the bench, score and do nothing else well. Go down the list of any 6th man scorer and they would probably trash them.

It's absolutely great to see Rui playing so well since his return!

He didn't shoot all that well vs. the Magic, but no one shoots well every night. Unfortunately, I was in the Hudson River Valley that night & couldn't watch the game, but I did notice in the box that he grabbed 7 boards. At the same time, the 3 TOs stand in the way of calling it an outstanding outing. But, come on, these guys are not machines....

In any case, even including the Magic game, since his return Rui has scored 81 points on 52 FGAs & 16 FTAs. That's a .686 TS% -- !!!

No one could ask him to keep up that pace, but if these performances are anywhere close to what he can log consistently in the combo-forward role he seems to be filling since his return, that would be awesome!

But... it's not the case that he "can... do nothing else well." He's at least an average rebounder these days. &, even if he isn't an outstanding defender, he still doesn't commit a lot of stupid fouls.

Right now, Rui is looking like a solid NBA player. Is he, overall, "good" -- i.e. above average. Since his return, for sure! But we aren't going to judge him on a few games.

If he keeps it up at more or less this level, his season stats will tell us he's made it to that level.

Does this mean that picking Rui was a wise use of the #9 pick in the 2019 draft? No, sorry. OTOH, he's certainly been better overall than Cam Reddish, who was picked right after him. & better than PJ Washington too.

He's even been better than some guys picked before him in that draft. Still, there are just too many guys taken way after him who have been hugely better than him -- & who were being called out by several of us on the Board. All the same, things are looking up for Rui based on his recent games. A good thing!

[payitforward]

PIF, I’m going to bring up a question I raised a few days ago regarding Kuz. Is Rui a SF or PF? Which one of those positions is he playing when he’s on the court with Kuz or Deni?

Personally, I find it increasingly useless (maybe even misleading) to evaluate players by position when one so-called PF might play a very different role for his team than another. Most people would label both Kuz and Brandon Clark PFs, but just think about how different their roles and skill sets are. So it stands to reason their #s might differ accordingly.

I agree with all of this. At the very least, PIF ought to be averaging the production of a SF and a PF when coming up with a comp for Kuzma....

Two points here in response

1. Your last statement -- that it's likely better to average the numbers of 3s & 4s as a basis for comparison with Kuzma -- makes perfect sense. He's still not good, alas.

Plus, once you do that, well then you kinda have to do it for a whole lot of players. For example, I'm guessing you don't watch a lot of Memphis games. Adams, JJJ, Aldama, Tillman, Laravia, Roddy, & Lofton have combined to play 3164 minutes at (almost entirely) the 4 & 5. In 34 games.

Roddy does play some 3, but even taking that into account there's not much time left for Clarke at the 4: over 2/3 of his minutes are at the 3. I.e. if we bother to give these terms meaning, Brandon Clarke is almost always on the floor with one or more of the above players. In short, Brandon Clarke plays more minutes at the 3 than at the 4.

Given that Clarke is having an absolutely great season, just absolutely killing it, you don't really want me to compare his numbers with Kuzma's, do you nate?

Or with Rui's, Zards? & you are absolutely right that Rui, almost as much as Clarke, can be thought of as a 3 instead of a 4.

Trust me, you don't.

Which takes me to my 2d point.

2. It must be possible to compare Kyle Kuzma with someone. If with "an average 4" is unenlightening, then with whom? Who is a comparable player to Kyle Kuzma? The right person to compare with Kuz?

[nate33]

Since returning from injury 6 games ago, Rui is posting the following per-36 numbers:

25.5 points
6.4 rebounds
2.3 assists
1.3 turnovers
.688 TS%
.364 3P%

Actually, his play started picking up on the 10th game of the season. He was pretty bad for his first 9 games, but since then, he is averaging 23.2 points per 36 on a TS% of .639 (over 13 total games).

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Is it too early to say Rui is better than Kyle?