NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24 (Part 4: MVP Thread's Revenge)

[The-Power]

an update for @DoctorMJ

Luka's last 10 games: +17, +6, +18, +18, +19, +25, +9, -13, +13, +11
the only negative game was -13 vs Indy in a 20 pt loss

most of these games are since the deadline trades and all with Kyrie

Huh, who would have thunk it?

Not sure what's there to ‘call out’. If you didn't believe in plus-minus patterns before, you shouldn't start just because it looks better for the player you support over a small sample. If you generally believe in plus-minus patterns, a small sample should not override the much larger sample we do have available.

That being said, of course this could be the start of a trend and Luka turning the corner when it comes to plus-minus based impact. So if that proves sustainable over a larger sample, I'm sure that Doc MJ will happily acknowledge that because – unlike some of Luka's fans seem to believe – he's not biased against their favorite player. It's simply too early to override all that could be observed before and, importantly, it also wouldn't mean that the previous data or conclusions were incorrect – it could just mean that Luka has found a way (possibly aided by a renovated roster) to impact the game more or more consistently.

Either way, the recent pattern certainly isn't some kind of ‘gotcha’ moment in the debate about Luka's regular season impact.

[Exp0sed]

an update for @DoctorMJ

Luka's last 10 games: +17, +6, +18, +18, +19, +25, +9, -13, +13, +11
the only negative game was -13 vs Indy in a 20 pt loss

most of these games are since the deadline trades and all with Kyrie

Huh, who would have thunk it?

Not sure what's there to ‘call out’. If you didn't believe in plus-minus patterns before, you shouldn't start just because it looks better for the player you support over a small sample. If you generally believe in plus-minus patterns, a small sample should not override the much larger sample we do have available.

That being said, of course this could be the start of a trend and Luka turning the corner when it comes to plus-minus based impact. So if that proves sustainable over a larger sample, I'm sure that Doc MJ will happily acknowledge that because – unlike some of Luka's fans seem to believe – he's not biased against their favorite player. It's simply too early to override all that could be observed before and, importantly, it also wouldn't mean that the previous data or conclusions were incorrect – it could just mean that Luka has found a way (possibly aided by a renovated roster) to impact the game more or more consistently.

Either way, the recent pattern certainly isn't some kind of ‘gotcha’ moment in the debate about Luka's regular season impact.

Oh, I didn't suggest he's biased whatsoever, I'm merely following up
obviously it's a small sample but I predicted this would happen and suggested it as a method to test the two differing models, so far so good

edit: small sample for sure, but let's say for agument's sake that this trend continues - don't u think that's a "gotcha" moment?
Luka has never played alongside an actual NBA level roster, until the deadline, 6+ seasons of data all from such flawed rosters, and for those 6+ seasons he has failed to impress in +-, def not MVP caliber +-, but the minute he gets an actual NBA level roster, with a healthy co-star and NBA level players at every position (on the bench as well),suddenly his +- "normalizes" to fit the eye test?
that's a heck of a coincidence

but yes, the sample is def way too small we'll see if this trend continues up to the end of the season

i'll keep following up

[shi-woo]

I'm just curious to where people rank Murray? A lot of the MVP conversation is being predicated by stars with lack of support this year (Joel, Luka, Giannis) or too much support (Tatum) yet in every podcast and blog I see guys like Dame, Brown, Zingus, and Kyrie are all ranked ahead of Jamal. I also find it weird that in terms of bench, Denver has by far the worst bench out of all the contenders, and most pundits and fans agree. It's weird to hear arguments when we all agree Jokic is playing on a team with less Top end and back end talent than most of his peers on contending teams. It's a wholly unique experience.

I just don't see any real argument for anyone else right now, it's just one of those years like LeBron in the early 2010's. We're just looking for a reason to say No.

The only real reason this is even a discussion after the Bucks horrific start to the Doc campaign and Joel injury is voter fatigue. Luka is a worthy candidate, but again, I'd be shocked if people really voted for him because they think he's the most important player and doing the most work.

Nuggets have essentially stayed cool calm and collect in the Top 3 all year. Luka is battling for the play in, same with Joel's team, and Giannis and the Bucks have been a disaster all year in the media, even if their record doesn't reflect it. It would be so weird to see the MVP fighting or even getting knocked out of the play-in game...

How I see it right now is it's Jokics quite handily unless the Mavs go on an absolute scorcher and somehow get Top 4 in the West. If that doesn't happen, and we get a voter fatigue year, than its Luka vs Tatum and no one else. Tatum for the stats and his team is absolutely dominating the NBA this year, and Luka for just being the one man show.

Rewarding Giannis with a 3rd MVP after all the time he's spent in the media this year complaining, would be a travesty when there are clearly deserving candidates.

[Ron Swanson]

OKC has 7 players with a positive BPM this season. Denver has a whopping 3. OKC has been pretty stacked this year.

The 2009 Cavs had 6 guys with a positive BPM. Who cares?

You've been pissing on Jokic for years, not sure why.

He is the best player in the game and his team are Champions, and it is all due to him.
SGA is a phenomenal player, Luka is out of this World, and Giannis is Giannis.
If Jokic gets MVP no one will ever be able to say anyone else was robbed.

What on earth are you talking about? I had Jokic as my MVP the last 3 seasons lol. And SGA leading a bunch of 21 and 22-year old kids with "no other All-Star or 20-PPG scorer" to +8 SRS somehow isn't all/mostly due to him? The statistical case for SGA has been laid out plenty the last several months, but it's like some of you guys just immediately default to "he must be biased" because some people don't accept every flimsy narrative argument in favor of Jokic like the second bolded one. The irony.

[jg77]

Is this a Luka and Jokic thread or MVP discussion? Seems like SGA would be in the lead and talked about more in here.

[B-easy]

Is this a Luka and Jokic thread or MVP discussion? Seems like SGA would be in the lead and talked about more in here.

Luka has more fans than SGA. In reality it's between Jokic and SGA. I have Jokic as slightly ahead of SGA and well ahead of Luka and Giannis.

[CharityStripe34]

Rewarding Giannis with a 3rd MVP after all the time he's spent in the media this year complaining, would be a travesty when there are clearly deserving candidates.

Not saying he will, because he's been mostly 3-4 in most people's lists this season, but say the Bucks start going on some win streaks and he keeps up his production (or slightly increases) he wouldn't be "rewarded for complaining" lol. He's having one of his most efficient seasons ever and is a huge reason why the Bucks' season hasn't totally derailed despite all the head-coaching transition.

My guess is that either SGA or Jokic will win, and Giannis will end up third or possibly fourth if voters decide to reward Luka's crazy run to try and keep Dallas afloat.

[Wolfgang630]

I don’t think Giannis will win an mvp until he’s older. It’s like that “old man leads his team to a top 2 seed MVP”

[CobraCommander]

Luka making a push for the mvp

Not from 8th in the west- playing great but too many other guys are playing better and winning. Right now I think the consensus he 4th

https://www.nba.com/news/kia-mvp-ladder-updates-2023-24

lol at "too many" and there is no concensus if you use one blog... Majority sites have Luka ahead of Giannis most of the season including now, not particularly after a Feb when Bucks went 5w-5l whereas Mavs were 7w-2l. I am ok with him above luka actually but you have been always campaigning him above SGA, which has no reasonable base whatso ever.

At this point I think it’s honestly Jokic and then you can bundle Luka Giannis and SGA into a group -

Then the field -

Who ever does something amazing over the next 18-20 games will come in SECOND

Jokic deserves to be a 3 time mvp champion- it would be a shame if he didn’t get considering the historic run he is on. Jokic needs to be considered with Shaq, Hakeem,KAJ,Timmy, Russ and Wilt as the best bigs ever -

[CobraCommander]

Is this a Luka and Jokic thread or MVP discussion? Seems like SGA would be in the lead and talked about more in here.

Luka has more fans than SGA. In reality it's between Jokic and SGA. I have Jokic as slightly ahead of SGA and well ahead of Luka and Giannis.

I think it’s not just that Luka and Jokic have more fans

Because Jokic has NO fans… Jokic has people that he convinced over a long period of time that he is the Best player on earth-

I spend time in Denver and even some people there don’t appreciate him like they should because they can’t comprehend how Jokic can be the best basketball player on earth - and possibly one of the best players ever maybe a true top 5 all time

Luka has more fans for obvious reasons - gaudy @$$ numbers -dude driving a tank to the game- he talking crap like Kobe- and again he wants the smoke… everyone loves a brash young gun slinger…. Luka also has humbled a worthy rival in Booker… other than Booker and Luka… I can’t think of another rivalry of equals where both guys took it personally. Luka made fans by stepping up there. Love or hate him… you gotta say you were entertained. Also Luka drops 40 and you yawn- if Luka scores 19 you like WTF did he get hurt?!? I wasn’t sold on Luka but I’m sold - Luka is an entertainer- love or hate him - he requires you to have an opinion.

Sga is a boring dude - no hate - but he is young kahwi - you love his game but he ain’t gonna try to get 70- he tries to win and get out and let the bench players get some run like a proper gentleman. You respect SGA - he is just a really nice guy - great game - no BS… just ball - almost like a robot like Kawhi. I wonder if SGA will be what Kawhi was if he stayed healthy.

Either way Sga is second in MVp obviously- but what is there to talk about - sga just plays basketball and carries himself like a professional- not really much to debate

[dygaction]

Not from 8th in the west- playing great but too many other guys are playing better and winning. Right now I think the consensus he 4th

https://www.nba.com/news/kia-mvp-ladder-updates-2023-24

lol at "too many" and there is no concensus if you use one blog... Majority sites have Luka ahead of Giannis most of the season including now, not particularly after a Feb when Bucks went 5w-5l whereas Mavs were 7w-2l. I am ok with him above luka actually but you have been always campaigning him above SGA, which has no reasonable base whatso ever.

At this point I think it’s honestly Jokic and then you can bundle Luka Giannis and SGA into a group -

Then the field -

Who ever does something amazing over the next 18-20 games will come in SECOND

Jokic deserves to be a 3 time mvp champion- it would be a shame if he didn’t get considering the historic run he is on. Jokic needs to be considered with Shaq, Hakeem,KAJ,Timmy, Russ and Wilt as the best bigs ever -

What you listed, Shaq 1, Hakeem 1, Timmy 2, let's not go to much earlier when there were less teams and overall talents... I agree he deserves three or might have been mistreated last year, but it does not mean SGA should be deprived of his fair evaluation. Nuggets are about the same as last year while OKC are A LOT better from playin to leading the west. They have won 41 games by now whereas had 40 wins last year. SGAs adv stats are there with Jokic's. There have to be some consistent standards. You can say Luka/Giannis are close, but SGA is clear up there with Jokic right now.

[Kurtz]

lol at "too many" and there is no concensus if you use one blog... Majority sites have Luka ahead of Giannis most of the season including now, not particularly after a Feb when Bucks went 5w-5l whereas Mavs were 7w-2l. I am ok with him above luka actually but you have been always campaigning him above SGA, which has no reasonable base whatso ever.

At this point I think it’s honestly Jokic and then you can bundle Luka Giannis and SGA into a group -

Then the field -

Who ever does something amazing over the next 18-20 games will come in SECOND

Jokic deserves to be a 3 time mvp champion- it would be a shame if he didn’t get considering the historic run he is on. Jokic needs to be considered with Shaq, Hakeem,KAJ,Timmy, Russ and Wilt as the best bigs ever -

What you listed, Shaq 1, Hakeem 1, Timmy 2, let's not go to much earlier when there were less teams and overall talents... I agree he deserves three or might have been mistreated last year, but it does not mean SGA should be deprived of his fair evaluation. Nuggets are about the same as last year while OKC are A LOT better from playin to leading the west. They have won 41 games by now whereas had 40 wins last year. SGAs adv stats are there with Jokic's. There have to be some consistent standards. You can say Luka/Giannis are close, but SGA is clear up there with Jokic right now.

The "won a lot more games than the year prior" credit usually goes to the coach. Daigneault will win the COY award most likely (unless Finch snipes it).

[dygaction]

At this point I think it’s honestly Jokic and then you can bundle Luka Giannis and SGA into a group -

Then the field -

Who ever does something amazing over the next 18-20 games will come in SECOND

Jokic deserves to be a 3 time mvp champion- it would be a shame if he didn’t get considering the historic run he is on. Jokic needs to be considered with Shaq, Hakeem,KAJ,Timmy, Russ and Wilt as the best bigs ever -

What you listed, Shaq 1, Hakeem 1, Timmy 2, let's not go to much earlier when there were less teams and overall talents... I agree he deserves three or might have been mistreated last year, but it does not mean SGA should be deprived of his fair evaluation. Nuggets are about the same as last year while OKC are A LOT better from playin to leading the west. They have won 41 games by now whereas had 40 wins last year. SGAs adv stats are there with Jokic's. There have to be some consistent standards. You can say Luka/Giannis are close, but SGA is clear up there with Jokic right now.

The "won a lot more games than the year prior" credit usually goes to the coach. Daigneault will win the COY award most likely (unless Finch snipes it).

Also can go to Chet and JW, but MVP is about best players on best teams and clearly SGA is the player on OKC.

[QPR]

The Nuggets probably end up with a better record than last season, and that's with a weaker bench and Murray missing games. Plus Jokic is pretty much the system - I think them staying at the top every year is an argument for MVP, not an argument against it.

[Exp0sed]

The Joker somehow managed to cut his To's this season. SGA has been herladed for his incredible 2.2 To's but Jokic is averging just 2.9 TO's with over 9 assists (and a better AST\TO ratio than SGA)
and he's got under 3 To's a game despite getting the most touches in the NBA and while constantly driving, bringing up the ball (at 6'11) and attempting a very "risky" passing portfoliio

crazy stuff, he's basically the best PG ever or rather - the ultimate floor general.

[dygaction]

The Joker somehow managed to cut his To's this season. SGA has been herladed for his incredible 2.2 To's but Jokic is averging just 2.9 TO's with over 9 assists (and a better AST\TO ratio than SGA)
and he's got under 3 To's a game despite getting the most touches in the NBA and while constantly driving, bringing up the ball (at 6'11) and attempting a very "risky" passing portfoliio

crazy stuff, he's basically the best PG ever or rather - the ultimate floor general.

Ast/to is a way to look at players for comparable positions but not across different functionality players. SGA scores 5ppg more at higher usage (32.9 vs. 29.3 usg% Jokic) and those have to be accounted for. TO% with usage considered are more reflective. While all top performers have very similar and good ~12 TO% (+/-1%), including Jokic, Embiid, Luka, Giannis, Hali, Mitchell, Steph, Durant..., SGA and Kawhi are at 8.3 and 8.4%, they just take much better care of the ball. Another outlier is Kyrie at 7.0%.

[Kurtz]

The Joker somehow managed to cut his To's this season. SGA has been herladed for his incredible 2.2 To's but Jokic is averging just 2.9 TO's with over 9 assists (and a better AST\TO ratio than SGA)
and he's got under 3 To's a game despite getting the most touches in the NBA and while constantly driving, bringing up the ball (at 6'11) and attempting a very "risky" passing portfoliio

crazy stuff, he's basically the best PG ever or rather - the ultimate floor general.

Ast/to is a way to look at players for comparable positions but not across different functionality players. SGA scores 5ppg more at higher usage (32.9 vs. 29.3 usg% Jokic) and those have to be accounted for. TO% with usage considered are more reflective. While all top performers have very similar and good ~12 TO% (+/-1%), including Jokic, Embiid, Luka, Giannis, Hali, Mitchell, Steph, Durant..., SGA and Kawhi are at 8.3 and 8.4%, they just take much better care of the ball. Another outlier is Kyrie at 7.0%.

I think Joker's assists are of by far the highest quality in the league (maybe Luka is there too). SGA's assists are more of a garden variety - penetration, kick-out. Lower risk of a turnover, but you're still relying on the shooter to make the shot (and OKC is exceedingly good at hitting the 3). Joker, on the other hand, has multiple assists for dunks/layups per game. These are inherently more susceptible to turnovers.

[Bob8]

an update for @DoctorMJ

Luka's last 10 games: +17, +6, +18, +18, +19, +25, +9, -13, +13, +11
the only negative game was -13 vs Indy in a 20 pt loss

most of these games are since the deadline trades and all with Kyrie

Huh, who would have thunk it?

Not sure what's there to ‘call out’. If you didn't believe in plus-minus patterns before, you shouldn't start just because it looks better for the player you support over a small sample. If you generally believe in plus-minus patterns, a small sample should not override the much larger sample we do have available.

That being said, of course this could be the start of a trend and Luka turning the corner when it comes to plus-minus based impact. So if that proves sustainable over a larger sample, I'm sure that Doc MJ will happily acknowledge that because – unlike some of Luka's fans seem to believe – he's not biased against their favorite player. It's simply too early to override all that could be observed before and, importantly, it also wouldn't mean that the previous data or conclusions were incorrect – it could just mean that Luka has found a way (possibly aided by a renovated roster) to impact the game more or more consistently.

Either way, the recent pattern certainly isn't some kind of ‘gotcha’ moment in the debate about Luka's regular season impact.

Debate about Luka's +/- is more or less debate about, who's watching Luka regularly and who's not. No numbers should replace what we're seeing.

[Homerclease]

an update for @DoctorMJ

Luka's last 10 games: +17, +6, +18, +18, +19, +25, +9, -13, +13, +11
the only negative game was -13 vs Indy in a 20 pt loss

most of these games are since the deadline trades and all with Kyrie

Huh, who would have thunk it?

Not sure what's there to ‘call out’. If you didn't believe in plus-minus patterns before, you shouldn't start just because it looks better for the player you support over a small sample. If you generally believe in plus-minus patterns, a small sample should not override the much larger sample we do have available.

That being said, of course this could be the start of a trend and Luka turning the corner when it comes to plus-minus based impact. So if that proves sustainable over a larger sample, I'm sure that Doc MJ will happily acknowledge that because – unlike some of Luka's fans seem to believe – he's not biased against their favorite player. It's simply too early to override all that could be observed before and, importantly, it also wouldn't mean that the previous data or conclusions were incorrect – it could just mean that Luka has found a way (possibly aided by a renovated roster) to impact the game more or more consistently.

Either way, the recent pattern certainly isn't some kind of ‘gotcha’ moment in the debate about Luka's regular season impact.

Debate about Luka's +/- is more or less debate about, who's watching Luka regularly and who's not. No numbers should replace what we're seeing.

What I see is Euro Harden leading his team to a play in game.

Luka isn’t close to the MVP discussion.

[zero rings]

an update for @DoctorMJ

Luka's last 10 games: +17, +6, +18, +18, +19, +25, +9, -13, +13, +11
the only negative game was -13 vs Indy in a 20 pt loss

most of these games are since the deadline trades and all with Kyrie

Huh, who would have thunk it?

Not sure what's there to ‘call out’. If you didn't believe in plus-minus patterns before, you shouldn't start just because it looks better for the player you support over a small sample. If you generally believe in plus-minus patterns, a small sample should not override the much larger sample we do have available.

That being said, of course this could be the start of a trend and Luka turning the corner when it comes to plus-minus based impact. So if that proves sustainable over a larger sample, I'm sure that Doc MJ will happily acknowledge that because – unlike some of Luka's fans seem to believe – he's not biased against their favorite player. It's simply too early to override all that could be observed before and, importantly, it also wouldn't mean that the previous data or conclusions were incorrect – it could just mean that Luka has found a way (possibly aided by a renovated roster) to impact the game more or more consistently.

Either way, the recent pattern certainly isn't some kind of ‘gotcha’ moment in the debate about Luka's regular season impact.

Debate about Luka's +/- is more or less debate about, who's watching Luka regularly and who's not. No numbers should replace what we're seeing.

On the contrary, if your eye test doesn't line up with the scoreboard (+/-), your eyes are probably missing a lot of what’s going on.

NBA history is full of players who were more “impressive” than they were “good.” Guys like AI, Tmac, Carmelo, and Nique all passed the eye test for millions of fans. None of them seemed to have much of an impact on winning.

The +/- argument against Luka is legitimate. Guys who are actual top 5 players don’t post mediocre impact stats over 5+ year stretches. And if you actually watch him play with a critical eye, it’s not hard to see why. He’s not a good defender, and he makes things worse by constantly arguing with the refs instead of getting back on D. He also doesn’t do much of anything when the ball isn’t in his hands, which negates some of his otherwise terrific offense.

Luka fans might be happy to ignore this stuff as they’re watching him, but the scoreboard doesn’t miss anything.