Draft Lottery 2025 Tonight @ 7pm TSN

[AkelaLoneWolf]

As in Harper is too good to trade for an aging star? Ya I thought about that. Might be best to run it back organically. I don't think 76ers are a player for Giannis. What would they trade besides 3rd? Embiid? would Milwaukee even want him?

you've got a point for salary match purposes. sixers at a crossroads. they could probably get decent assets for embiid if they tried to pivot. pg13 prob close to untradeable tho. harper + maxey can make a fearsome combo in about 3 years.

Embiid is not tradeable

disagree. someone will pay. he should be healthy next year.
also what is the cap implication with having the 9th pick. how much extra space do we have under the first apron now.

[JB7]

spurs and mavs getting gifted the top two picks

nba scriptwriters can be a bit less obvious

Wait until Giannis gets gifted to one of the ‘desirable’ markets.

[Raps in 4]

spurs and mavs getting gifted the top two picks

nba scriptwriters can be a bit less obvious

Wait until Giannis gets gifted to one of the ‘desirable’ markets.

And they too magically win the lottery next year! Horst is probably on the phone right now with Silver asking for assurances that they are going to get the #1 pick next year if they ship Giannis to the Lakers (they'll need to swing a 3-way to get their pick back, but Silver will pull the necessary strings).

[PushDaRock]

you've got a point for salary match purposes. sixers at a crossroads. they could probably get decent assets for embiid if they tried to pivot. pg13 prob close to untradeable tho. harper + maxey can make a fearsome combo in about 3 years.

Embiid is not tradeable

disagree. someone will pay. he should be healthy next year.
also what is the cap implication with having the 9th pick. how much extra space do we have under the first apron now.

31 now and played 58 games the last 2 seasons with injuries to his left knee along with an extensive injury history even before that, what gives you optimism he will be healthy next year?

What team is giving up assets for him with 3 years and 193m left on his deal?

[Potential]

Sorry but I'm out on maluach again. I'd prefer to trade the pick in a package for a future superstar player in the league like Reed Sheppard

[ConSarnit]

you've got a point for salary match purposes. sixers at a crossroads. they could probably get decent assets for embiid if they tried to pivot. pg13 prob close to untradeable tho. harper + maxey can make a fearsome combo in about 3 years.

Embiid is not tradeable

disagree. someone will pay. he should be healthy next year.
also what is the cap implication with having the 9th pick. how much extra space do we have under the first apron now.

I don’t see how Embiid gets moved. He’s owed $240m over the next 4 years. He likely has a degenerative knee condition and guys don’t come back from that. That type of injury only gets worse (see: Dwyane Wade and Brandon Roy). He’s looking like an extremely toxic contract right now.

The 9th pick doesn’t change a whole lot salary wise. We should have about $3m under the tax and $10m under the 1st apron. I’d be very surprised if we go over the tax line given the projection of the team. We need to move salary if we want to round out the roster (especially for a backup big). Even if we go into the tax I’d assume we’d make a deadline salary dump to avoid it but we don’t have any contracts that I would just want to flat out dump at the moment. Maybe that’s Boucher if he comes back at the vet min.

[PushDaRock]

Embiid is not tradeable

disagree. someone will pay. he should be healthy next year.
also what is the cap implication with having the 9th pick. how much extra space do we have under the first apron now.

I don’t see how Embiid gets moved. He’s owed $240m over the next 4 years. He likely has a degenerative knee condition and guys don’t come back from that. That type of injury only gets worse (see: Dwyane Wade and Brandon Roy). He’s looking like an extremely toxic contract right now.

The 9th pick doesn’t change a whole lot salary wise. We should have about $3m under the tax and $10m under the 1st apron. I’d be very surprised if we go over the tax line given the projection of the team. We need to move salary if we want to round out the roster (especially for a backup big). Even if we go into the tax I’d assume we’d make a deadline salary dump to avoid it but we don’t have any contracts that I would just want to flat out dump at the moment. Maybe that’s Boucher if he comes back at the vet min.

yikes I was thinking his extension already kicked in next season, 4 years is even worse lol

[bboyskinnylegs]

damn, the Bulls lost out on Flagg because of a coin toss

[billy_hoyle]

Lol I'm not saying the draft necessary wasn't rigged, but some of you really need to understand how statistics and probability work

If we're going to talk statistics and probabilities, the math says there's a 0.012% chance that the top 3 picks played out the way they did. That's a 1 in 8,319 chance. The NBA lottery has been around for 40 years, so you'd have to repeat the entire history of the NBA lottery 200 times for this to ever happen again.

You have a 2-3x higher chance of getting a perfect SAT score (1 in 3,400).
If you played high school sports, the odds of you going pro or to the Olympics is 1 in 1,400, so 6x more likely than this top 3 lotto.
You're about 10x more likely to have been born with an extra finger or toe (1 in 500-1000).
You're also about 10x more likely to catch a foul ball at a random baseball game you attend.
Getting a hole in one is about a 1 in 12,500 chance.

We're talking about some prettttty low probabilities here.

The probability of any specific order of 3 teams, even if it was WAS, UTA, CHA or something like that, is extremely low

This.

Do people not understand statistics?

To work backwards and re-create a specific outcome is going to look like astronomically small odds when you start with a 1.8% chance winning.

That's the hard part, but it's a possibility. We only had what? 5x the chance (or 6% more). Would it be rigged if we won? Collectively there was a ~15% chance that we were getting jumped by at least two teams above us in the standings.

[Kingsway_fan]

Utah and Washington will be back at it again next year - perennial tankers with nothing to show for it.
Lol at the TWo whiners... hopefully, this ends the deliberate tanking for Raps for years to come.

[bballsparkin]

you've got a point for salary match purposes. sixers at a crossroads. they could probably get decent assets for embiid if they tried to pivot. pg13 prob close to untradeable tho. harper + maxey can make a fearsome combo in about 3 years.

ya, and i don't think Giannis wants to go to Philadelphia unless the team is stacked. From what I've heard about Philly.

[bballsparkin]

Trade the pick

No.

[ImaBeatDatAzz]

Can someone explain how the hell spurs keep getting so lucky man

[bballsparkin]

[

This.

Do people not understand statistics?

To work backwards and re-create a specific outcome is going to look like astronomically small odds when you start with a 1.8% chance winning.

That's the hard part, but it's a possibility. We only had what? 5x the chance (or 6% more). Would it be rigged if we won? Collectively there was a ~15% chance that we were getting jumped by at least two teams above us in the standings.

It's possible sure. But can you doubt people for doubting the NBA. Lots of coincidences starting all the way back with Ewing to the Knicks. Honestly I don't even care about it. It makes sense from a business perspective. I have a problem with the too many 3 pointers and biased reffing.

[WhatsaTDot]

With the 8th pick, the Brooklyn Nets select, Khaman Maluach.

[bballsparkin]

Utah and Washington will be back at it again next year - perennial tankers with nothing to show for it.
Lol at the TWo whiners... hopefully, this ends the deliberate tanking for Raps for years to come.

Washington has done good in my opinion. They were run so badly it was needed. Utah I agree.

[sidsid]

We needed a worse coach to get us to that Philly spot in the tank rankings. Too bad we upgraded from Nurse to Darko. Well at least we enjoyed that little win streak before the deadline.

Worst possible scenario for the top 3. The two best prospects going out west again. Philly gets a trade chip that may end up out west too.

We just need to get rid of conferences all together.

[sidsid]

I keep hearing people say that we’d have to gut our team to lose. I believe at some point in the season we had the third worst record in the league. Do you think we’d have to trade every player to maintain that lead? People questioned why we were playing vets when we had that mini run in January. Could have been simple as trading Poeltl, Boucher and either Brown or Olynyk. You can arguably still make the trade for Ingram and the only difference is that you have more assets having moved Poeltl and Boucher. I’d still rather push the lottery probabilities in our favour than a half measure.

Except say you still don't win the lottery, now you're picking 7th rather than 9th and you don't have a starting center.

How could we survive without a starting center?

*checks notes

Raptors record since acquiring Poeltl: 70-120

(Mostly joking here. obviously I know we need a center but it’s been 3 seasons and it has paid exactly zero dividends for us)

A starting center that doesn't fit with our star forward and likely needs to be traded anyway. Really just goes back to how badly the structural problems of the Wemby draft decisions turned out. We needed star talent that year, not another role player. Now we're still looking for that star talent, but also have to fix spacing and defensive holes with an awkward lineup for both issues. We've somehow built a more complicated, ill fitting version of the Cavs liabilities.

[Mark_83]

I know it's AI generated but it's hilariously spot on.

https://m.youtube.com/shorts/mHkG9oQdbbo

[SirKen]

If we're going to talk statistics and probabilities, the math says there's a 0.012% chance that the top 3 picks played out the way they did. That's a 1 in 8,319 chance. The NBA lottery has been around for 40 years, so you'd have to repeat the entire history of the NBA lottery 200 times for this to ever happen again.

You have a 2-3x higher chance of getting a perfect SAT score (1 in 3,400).
If you played high school sports, the odds of you going pro or to the Olympics is 1 in 1,400, so 6x more likely than this top 3 lotto.
You're about 10x more likely to have been born with an extra finger or toe (1 in 500-1000).
You're also about 10x more likely to catch a foul ball at a random baseball game you attend.
Getting a hole in one is about a 1 in 12,500 chance.

We're talking about some prettttty low probabilities here.

The probability of any specific order of 3 teams, even if it was WAS, UTA, CHA or something like that, is extremely low

This.

Do people not understand statistics?

To work backwards and re-create a specific outcome is going to look like astronomically small odds when you start with a 1.8% chance winning.

That's the hard part, but it's a possibility. We only had what? 5x the chance (or 6% more). Would it be rigged if we won? Collectively there was a ~15% chance that we were getting jumped by at least two teams above us in the standings.

Do people not understand how billion dollar businesses work?

The probability of the order of 3 teams being anything like WAS, UTA, CHA was a BIG FAT ZERO, does not matter what the math tells you. Talk about math focused stats people missing the context again...

The post below put it perfectly.
viewtopic.php?p=118539730#p118539730