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Remember the way Shaedon Sharpe skyrocketed up boards? There were questions about redshirting, then it felt almost surprising that Sharpe would be eligible to enter the 2022 NBA Draft. Sharpe ultimately entered the pre-draft process while maintaining his college eligibility—he then stayed in the draft, and was selected by the Portland Trail Blazers with the seventh pick. That’s not the typical trajectory for a Top 10 pick, but the raw talent Shaedon possessed was enough for teams to feel comfortable with taking him high in the draft without any production at the college level
This year, teams will have to wrestle with this question: “How high is too high for Cedric Coward?”
After playing in just six games, Cedric suffered a torn labrum. That injury required surgery, with a recovery window of 4-6 months. That effectively ended his lone season with Washington State. Despite having a low Minutes Percentage, Coward graded out favorably in essentially every field. It might be a bit optimistic to assume that if he played the rest of the year the way that he began it that he would have continued to produce the way that he did.
When compared Kon—who is getting buzz in the Top 3-to-7 range among most reputable draft outlets—Cedric gives him a run for his money in a number of areas. Coward is almost +3 in Offensive Rebound Percentage. He is almost +7 in Defensive Rebounding Percentage. He is around +16 in Free Throw Rate. He is almost +5 in Block Percentage.
Even in the areas where Kon is graded higher than Cedric, it is relatively marginal. What stands out to me is that Cedric has a higher Assist Percentage than Kon, though he hasn’t been used in as much of an on-ball role. Also, Coward’s Effective Field Goal Percentage and True Shooting Percentage are in line with those of hyper-efficient big men, though he took 8.5 three-point attempts per 100 possessions.
This season, Cedric Coward ranked in the 97th percentile in Points Per Possession (PPP) offensively on 1.161 PPP. This came on only 87 credited offensive possessions. What makes that grade so interesting, is that Coward graded out in the 96th percentile at Eastern Washington—scoring 1.140 PPP. That was on 429 credited possessions. Sure, the conference at Eastern Washington wasn’t the best, but he did score 16 points against Ole Miss, 21 points against Cincinnati, and 14 points against Stanford that season. Even going back to his first season with Eastern Washington, Cedric ranked in the 99th percentile on 204 credited possessions.
In other words, Coward has been a very good and efficient scorer his entire time playing Division I basketball.
Cedric does not operate as a lead initiator at this point in his career, and one could argue that he was working his way into being comfortable in that role prior to injury. Despite the perceived weakness, Coward showed solid improvement in this decision-making, albeit in a small sample size...The trajectory in his playmaking was going wonderfully, with his Assist-to-Turnover (ATO) ratio improving from 0.78 to 1.41. The improvement in this regard really helped to solidify the connective role he could play early on in the NBA.
What makes Cedric such an intriguing project isn’t just him being a good floor spacer with some upside to become better on that end. Coward has utilized his 7’2”+ wingspan and 8’10” standing reach to be an impactful defender. Cedric Coward possesses quick hands to go along with his length.
A few things worth noting right about now. 1) Cedric tied for the ninth-largest hands at the NBA Draft Combine—tying with big men like Danny Wolf, Asa Newell, Ryan Kalkbrenner, Johni Broome, Yaxel Lendeborg, and Alex Condon. 2) Coward posted a Steal Percentage of 1.4—and recorded Steal Percentages of 1.6 and 2.1 the previous two years, respectively...Cedric’s 38.5-inch max vertical leap graded out ninth in the NBA Draft Combine—tying with consensus Top 5 pick V.J. Edgecombe. In terms of block history, Cedric recorded a Block Percentage of 5.3. This actually topped his previous two seasons of 3.7 and 3.2 (both still very good), respectively.
So, what do we do with all of this information? I’m conflicted.
Cedric Coward has shown a continuous upward trajectory that consists of increased production with increased levels of competition. His player type is one of the most coveted in the NBA. There are concerns surrounding his handle, but I feel they are overstated. Even if Coward isn’t an on-ball maestro yet, he isn’t the type of person you would bet against developing a good enough one. Every NBA team would love to have a 6’6” wing that has good size and athleticism, who connects on the majority of their jumpers, and can defend at a good clip. Literally every team.
I have Cedric 12th on my board right now, in a tier that extends up to #8. This isn’t just catching up with the crowd. This is film-based, intel-based analysis on a player who had a fair amount of questions centered on whether or not he would want to return to college.
With the noise surrounding Cedric Coward’s draft stock, the draft community is coming to grips with the idea that he will likely be drafted. We’re having to dive into his tape and the intel on him again, trying to measure how valid the noise might be. There are no certainties when it comes to evaluation, but Coward is as valid a lottery-level talent as there is in this class.
rake Powell, Maxime Raynaud, Ben Saraf, Danny Wolf
