Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIX

[wall_glizzy]

As a matter of interest, Ruz, compare JJJ's numbers to those of Davis Bertans. They are remarkably similar in a bunch of areas.

Bertans' numbers are a lot better overall -- mostly because he's a more efficient scorer & because Jackson commits a whole lot of fouls -- which makes me wonder, btw, just how gifted a defender he really is.

Neither you nor I is high on Rui, but he was far better as a rookie than Jackson was in his 2d year. Despite JJJ's 3-pt. proficiency.

Now, Jackson is almost 2 years younger than Rui (20 months), but he's played over 3000 NBA minutes, & he wasn't really a better player his 2d year than he was as a rookie.* I'd be happier about trading for him if he'd shown more movement in the direction of that upside everyone is so sure he has.

* Better 3 pt. %, worse 2pt. %, lower FT% & got to the line less, TS% 59.3 vs 59.2. Fewer rebounds. All else about the same overall.

You don't think that increasing his 3P% from 35.9 to 39.4 while more than doubling his 3PA rate (from 4.7 to 10.6 per 100 possessions) is improvement?

Agree that getting the foul rate down is the single biggest step he could take towards realizing his rim protection potential, but I think that's fixable. He fouled at the same rate as Mitchell Robinson this past year - I think this is just going to be the new learning curve for the new breed of giant springy dudes who are being pulled out to the perimeter in switch-heavy schemes.

[nate33]

A probably unrealistic trade idea:

Washington trades:
R.Westbrook
R.Hachimura
D.Bertans
2021 1st

Philadelphia trades:
B.Simmons
T.Harris

The Wizards jettison their vets and actually get serious about building around youth by acquiring Simmons while retaining Beal, Avdija and Bryant. The Sixers unload the horrid contract of Harris, get Westbrook who is the ball-handling threat to complement Embiid's post game, and they add Bertans as a floor spacer and Hachimura as a promising forward prospect while getting a good pick in a strong draft.

The Wizards end up loaded with big, playmaking, defensively interchangeable wings (Beal, Brown, Avdija, Harris, Simmons, Bonga) to place around their one true center (Bryant).

[trast66]

A probably unrealistic trade idea:

Washington trades:
R.Westbrook
R.Hachimura
D.Bertans
2021 1st

Philadelphia trades:
B.Simmons
T.Harris

The Wizards jettison their vets and actually get serious about building around youth by acquiring Simmons while retaining Beal, Avdija and Bryant. The Wizards unload the horrid contract of Harris, get Westbrook who is the ball-handling threat to complement Embiid's post game, and they add Bertans as a floor spacer and Hachimura as a promising forward prospect while getting a good pick in a strong draft.

The Wizards end up loaded with big, playmaking, defensively interchangeable wings (Beal, Brown, Avdija, Harris, Simmons, Bonga) to place around their one true center (Bryant).

I don’t think PHI does it because too much injury risk for Embid and Morey wants nothing to do with Westbrook. And I don’t really see that Bertrans or Rui have that much value.

But even if Philly agreed are we really up to building around Simmons? It can be done but I don’t think we have the leadership and coaching to do it, he’s so unique.

I agree with getting serious about youth movement, but I don’t see how we do that without trading Brad. If paired this trade with a Brad trade that brought back another young top 60 or so and improving player that fits with Simmons and a Jrue H type draft haul, I might be on board if strong protection on that 2021 outgoing.

[MDStar]

A probably unrealistic trade idea:

Washington trades:
R.Westbrook
R.Hachimura
D.Bertans
2021 1st

Philadelphia trades:
B.Simmons
T.Harris

The Wizards jettison their vets and actually get serious about building around youth by acquiring Simmons while retaining Beal, Avdija and Bryant. The Wizards unload the horrid contract of Harris, get Westbrook who is the ball-handling threat to complement Embiid's post game, and they add Bertans as a floor spacer and Hachimura as a promising forward prospect while getting a good pick in a strong draft.

The Wizards end up loaded with big, playmaking, defensively interchangeable wings (Beal, Brown, Avdija, Harris, Simmons, Bonga) to place around their one true center (Bryant).

Very interesting trade Nate! Not sure who says "no" or "yes" for that matter. lol. We're giving up 4 of our top 7 (not included Beal, Advija and Bryant) current assets for Ben, which is tough. I guess it becomes a ceiling question. If we hit on one of Hachi, Deni or next years #1, with the current roster, I think we're close to really competing. Does Ben, Beal and Harris, with only Deni as our lone strong prospect, to be followed by TBJ, match the hope for the future? I really have no idea.

[nate33]

A probably unrealistic trade idea:

Washington trades:
R.Westbrook
R.Hachimura
D.Bertans
2021 1st

Philadelphia trades:
B.Simmons
T.Harris

The Wizards jettison their vets and actually get serious about building around youth by acquiring Simmons while retaining Beal, Avdija and Bryant. The Sixers unload the horrid contract of Harris, get Westbrook who is the ball-handling threat to complement Embiid's post game, and they add Bertans as a floor spacer and Hachimura as a promising forward prospect while getting a good pick in a strong draft.

The Wizards end up loaded with big, playmaking, defensively interchangeable wings (Beal, Brown, Avdija, Harris, Simmons, Bonga) to place around their one true center (Bryant).

I don’t think PHI does it because too much injury risk for Embid and Morey wants nothing to do with Westbrook. And I don’t really see that Bertrans or Rui have that much value.

But even if Philly agreed are we really up to building around Simmons? It can be done but I don’t think we have the leadership and coaching to do it, he’s so unique.

I agree with getting serious about youth movement, but I don’t see how we do that without trading Brad. If paired this trade with a Brad trade that brought back another young top 60 or so and improving player that fits with Simmons and a Jrue H type draft haul, I might be on board if strong protection on that 2021 outgoing.

The one reason why I think this is at least plausible for Philly is that Harris's contract is even worse than Westbrook's. It's about $8M a year less, but it's 1 year longer.

If you believe Westbrook for Harris is a slight win for Philly, then the rest of the trade is Hachimura + Bertans + 2021 1st for Simmons. That doesn't seem totally out of line, although probably not enough for Simmons.

EDIT: Come to think of it, Westbrook is very much like Simmons on offense. Simmons is obviously the better defender, and much younger.

[payitforward]

A probably unrealistic trade idea:

Washington trades:
R.Westbrook
R.Hachimura
D.Bertans
2021 1st

Philadelphia trades:
B.Simmons
T.Harris

The Wizards jettison their vets and actually get serious about building around youth by acquiring Simmons while retaining Beal, Avdija and Bryant. The Wizards (Sixers) unload the horrid contract of Harris, get Westbrook who is the ball-handling threat to complement Embiid's post game, and they add Bertans as a floor spacer and Hachimura as a promising forward prospect while getting a good pick in a strong draft.

The Wizards end up loaded with big, playmaking, defensively interchangeable wings (Beal, Brown, Avdija, Harris, Simmons, Bonga) to place around their one true center (Bryant).

nate, you are constantly surprising & inventive! My jaw dropped as I read this, given how strong your support has been for both Rui & Bertans.

That said, I don't like this trade. For one thing, Tobias Harris' contract is just too, too, too bad. He's not a good player
Though I'm not terribly high on Rui, I expect him to be as good as Tobias Harris pretty soon. Plus, there is no way that I'd be willing to deal our R1 pick next year.

I'd give Westbrook & Hachimura for Simmons, but I don't think Daryl Morey would do that deal. For that matter, I'd add Bertans in that deal too. That wouldn't pass muster in the trade machine.

To tell the truth, I can't imagine a trade in which I'd take back Tobias Harris.

[payitforward]

...If you believe Westbrook for Harris is a slight win for Philly....

I'd call that a colossal win for Philly!

[nate33]

nate, you are constantly surprising & inventive! My jaw dropped as I read this, given how strong your support has been for both Rui & Bertans.

That said, I don't like this trade. For one thing, Tobias Harris' contract is just too, too, too bad. He's not a good player
Though I'm not terribly high on Rui, I expect him to be as good as Tobias Harris pretty soon. Plus, there is no way that I'd be willing to deal our R1 pick next year.

I'd give Westbrook & Hachimura for Simmons, but I don't think Daryl Morey would do that deal. For that matter, I'd add Bertans in that deal too. That wouldn't pass muster in the trade machine.

To tell the truth, I can't imagine a trade in which I'd take back Tobias Harris.

I loved Bertans at $7M a year. But Bertans at $16M a year is merely a fairly-valued asset. He is absolutely on the table in any trade discussion.

I like Hachimura more than that haters on the board like you and Ruzious do but I'd certainly give him up in a trade where we upgrade to Simmons. There isn't room in the lineup for both Hachimura and Simmons anyhow.

My thinking about the pick is that, with Simmons on board, we will make the playoffs and it would only be the 16th or so pick we are giving up.

I'm not big fan of Harris, but he is only 28 years old (4 years younger than Westbrook) and when he wasn't playing on that weird, congested Philly team, he was worth 20 points and 8 boards per 36 with a TS% of .590. It's not like the guy is worthless.

The goal of this trade is to get a young star-caliber player like Simmons to play alongside Beal - a guy young enough that Beal can see a future that is better than now so we opts to remain in DC.

[Ruzious]

One good thing about signing RoLo to a little over-market contract is that with him and Ish, we have a couple of medium expiring contracts that can be used as filler to help work out a major trade.

Gotta give Harris' agent a ton of credit. Harris is a decent player, but that contract he's on is so absurd. And his contract before that was also high.

[payitforward]

...I'm not big fan of Harris, but he is only 28 years old (4 years younger than Westbrook) and when he wasn't playing on that weird, congested Philly team, he was worth 20 points and 8 boards per 36 with a TS% of .590. It's not like the guy is worthless....

He's not worthless, but he wasn't worth what you are thinking. On his career prior to Philly, Harris averaged just under 18 pts & just under 7 rebounds per 36 minutes. In 2018-19 he posted a 59.1% TS% -- his best ever. Career average is 56.1%

...The goal of this trade is to get a young star-caliber player like Simmons to play alongside Beal - a guy young enough that Beal can see a future that is better than now so we opts to remain in DC.

Which makes perfect sense. But, I think Harris sinks the boat, to tell the truth.

Simmons is a tremendous player, & he's better than Westbrook is likely to be. But if Westbrook returned to his form of 2018-19 (speculative, of course; but in fact I think he is likely to), the difference between him & Simmons wouldn't be nearly enough to make up for what it costs us in wins to substitute Harris for Bertans. On top of which we'd be down two young players in the deal: Rui & the 2021 pick.

Now... it could turn out differently, of course. But, there are too many kinds of risk involved for me.

In any case... Houston's owner traded for Westbrook over Morey's objections. Hard for me to imagine he'd be excited to acquire him at his next stop.

[nate33]

Here is my grand plan to trade Westbrook at the Trade Deadline this year. This assumes that Westbrook has had a bit of a bounce back year so there is a market for him. I'm proud of this one. I think it really works for everyone.

Washington trades: Westbrook
Washington receives: Eric Bledsoe, Lou Williams

LA Clippers trade: Patrick Beverley, Marcus Morris, Lou Williams
LA Clippers receive: Westbrook, Semi Ojeleye

Boston trades: Semi Ojeleye, TPE
Boston receives: Marcus Morris

New Orleans trades: Eric Bledsoe
New Orleans receives: Patrick Beverley

Why for Washington: We turn Westbrook's mammoth 3-year, $44M per year contract into Bledsoe's reasonable 3-year, $18M per year contract (with a $3.9M buyout for that third year). I think Bledsoe is a nice fit as a reliable, affordable, win-now PG who could take some of the ball-handling duties off of Beal but would mostly defer to Beal as the primary scorer. He is also one of the better defensive PG's in the league and he's 2 years younger than Westbrook. Lou Williams' deal expires this summer. If he could be flipped somewhere else for anything at all, we'd do it. This deal saves $26M a year going forward. And on our team, I'm not sure that Bledsoe is much of a downgrade from Westbrook since we're already good offensively and mostly need defense.

Why for the Clippers: This assumes that the Clippers don't think they have enough to beat the Lakers, so they go all in on a "Big Three" before Kawhi and Paul George have the chance to opt out. The trade leaves them a bit thin at forward so they get back Semi Ojeleye as a body to replace Morris. The Clippers may or may not include picks in this transaction depending on how well Westbrook played with Washington and how desperate the Clippers get, fearing Kawhi might leave. The Wizards could also throw in Neto if the Clippers wanted another backup PG (they have Reggie Jackson).

Why for Boston: Boston is sitting on a massive TPE obtained in the Hayward transaction and don't have much to spend it on. Morris, as a legit, two-way, starting-caliber forward is probably about as good of a player as they can get. He fits their system and fills a positional void as a backup forward who can close games. Semi Ojeleye is sent out to free a roster spot. He's an expiring UFA anyhow, so no value lost.

Why for New Orleans: Eric Bledsoe and Lonzo Ball are an incompatible fit in their backcourt. They're both defensive-minded PG's who can't shoot. Lonzo is the future and Bledsoe costs too much to play behind him. This trade moves Bledsoe for a smaller, shorter contract (Beverley is owed $14M for the next 2 years). And Beverley would be a good culture guy and he shoots better to space the floor.

[queridiculo]

Here is my grand plan to trade Westbrook at the Trade Deadline this year. This assumes that Westbrook has had a bit of a bounce back year so there is a market for him. I'm proud of this one. I think it really works for everyone.

Washington trades: Westbrook
Washington receives: Eric Bledsoe, Lou Williams

LA Clippers trade: Patrick Beverley, Marcus Morris, Lou Williams
LA Clippers receive: Westbrook, Semi Ojeleye

Boston trades: Semi Ojeleye, TPE
Boston receives: Marcus Morris

New Orleans trades: Eric Bledsoe
New Orleans receives: Patrick Beverley

I guess my question would be, what are we doing with the money, how does that help us?

The bet on the Westbrook deal is "culture" and adding an All-Pro to the roster. Bledsoe may be an adequate replacement I suppose, but the money we save sort of puts us into cap no-man's land, and exactly what would this move signal to Beal?

I also very much doubt that Ainge would be taking on Morris awful deal a year after they let him walk in free agency. They reportedly turned down Myles Turner + FRP for Gordon Hayward, more than likely due to salary cap considerations.

If the Celtics aren't thrilled about the idea of paying Turner $18 million per, I have a really tough time convincing myself that they'd spring for Morri's $16 million p/a.

One more thing to consider, Ballmer's got money to spend, but 3 max deals, ouch, that's going to hurt.

If you could find a way to flip the destination for Bledsoe to the Clippers, and Westbrook to New Orleans you might be on to something.

I'd much rather add Ball to the Wizards roster, than Bledsoe.

[pcbothwel]

Nate, Boston will have ~133M committed to 12 players next year (including draft pick) with the tax around 136M. I cant see them taking on Morris's contract and going 12M over the tax.

My only issue is if Westbrook does indeed bounce back, then the timing is VERY odd. I think the 21/22 season deadline would be far more likely for a Russ trade. That said, It's solid value for Westbrook. It's just difficult to profile how good the young guys will be for both us and NOP and that will really dictate the direction of both franchises.

[NatP4]

My expectation is that Westbrook gets traded at the deadline next season after they give it a shot this year. They will draft a PG in the 2021 draft I would expect.

[payitforward]

Now, Jackson is almost 2 years younger than Rui (20 months), but he's played over 3000 NBA minutes, & he wasn't really a better player his 2d year than he was as a rookie.* I'd be happier about trading for him if he'd shown more movement in the direction of that upside everyone is so sure he has.

* Better 3 pt. %, worse 2pt. %, lower FT% & got to the line less, TS% 59.3 vs 59.2. Fewer rebounds. All else about the same overall.

You don't think that increasing his 3P% from 35.9 to 39.4 while more than doubling his 3PA rate (from 4.7 to 10.6 per 100 possessions) is improvement? ...

Of course it is. In fact, his TS% went up from 59.1% to 59.3%. That's an improvement -- by definition. It's just not a big one.

OTOH, his offensive rebounds went down. & that's a deterioration, the opposite of an improvement, also by definition. Ditto his defensive boards (slightly). Other things went up (slightly). Or down. Overall, there was no improvement from year 1 to year 2. If anything (but I wouldn't harp on it) a slight deterioration.

JJJ will be better as soon as he's actually better. Not until then.

[nate33]

Nate, Boston will have ~133M committed to 12 players next year (including draft pick) with the tax around 136M. I cant see them taking on Morris's contract and going 12M over the tax.

My only issue is if Westbrook does indeed bounce back, then the timing is VERY odd. I think the 21/22 season deadline would be far more likely for a Russ trade. That said, It's solid value for Westbrook. It's just difficult to profile how good the young guys will be for both us and NOP and that will really dictate the direction of both franchises.

Boston traded away two 2nd round picks just to acquire that TPE. Presumably, they're planning on using it for something.

If Westbrook bounces back, my thinking is to sell high. The guy is 32 and can't keep this up much longer. If we mess around and wait until 21/22, he could get hurt or decline with age and suddenly become difficult to move. I also think that Clippers situation this year seems ripe. It's the perfect combination of expendable filler contracts, a deep-pocketed owner, a need for scoring and pace from the guard position, and a desperation to win now.

[pcbothwel]

Nate, Boston will have ~133M committed to 12 players next year (including draft pick) with the tax around 136M. I cant see them taking on Morris's contract and going 12M over the tax.

My only issue is if Westbrook does indeed bounce back, then the timing is VERY odd. I think the 21/22 season deadline would be far more likely for a Russ trade. That said, It's solid value for Westbrook. It's just difficult to profile how good the young guys will be for both us and NOP and that will really dictate the direction of both franchises.

Boston traded away two 2nd round picks just to acquire that TPE. Presumably, they're planning on using it for something.

If Westbrook bounces back, my thinking is to sell high. The guy is 32 and can't keep this up much longer. If we mess around and wait until 21/22, he could get hurt or decline with age and suddenly become difficult to move. I also think that Clippers situation this year seems ripe. It's the perfect combination of expendable filler contracts, a deep-pocketed owner, a need for scoring and pace from the guard position, and a desperation to win now.

1) Agreed, Boston traded two future late 2nds because they wanted to maintain flexibility in future transactions. But what does that have to do with Morris? Morris didnt sign that deal with a team with cap room. LAC signed him as they didnt have any other option in acquiring talent once Ibaka signed for the MLE. Morris will be a bad contract very soon IMHO and there will be better uses of that TPE available.
2) I love selling high. We all do. But im trying to play it out in real time and something doesnt jive. If Westbrook "bounces back", then that makes him a top 25 player in the league and we're competing for a 4-6th seed assuming Beal and the young guys dont flop. I just dont see how an organization can make that massive of a jump in both production and culture only to risk losing all the momentum so fast by moving Russ. He brings an energy and work ethic we haven't seen here before and I think you suck the air out of the room moving him too quickly.

[Ruzious]

I think if Westbrook has a good Westbrook type year, there will be teams interested in him - maybe not wisely but still interested - such as the Knicks. But if he's successful here in Washington and does well in the playoffs, he's probably not going to get traded - regardless of whether it would be smart to trade him. But as we've seen, anything's possible.

Gotta agree with the comments about Marcus Morris' contract - I don't see Boston wanting to take that on - though he did do well when playing for the Celtics - particularly in the 18-19 playoffs.

[payitforward]

If Westbrook bounces back, my thinking is to sell high. The guy is 32 and can't keep this up much longer. If we mess around and wait until 21/22, he could get hurt or decline with age and suddenly become difficult to move. I also think that Clippers situation this year seems ripe. It's the perfect combination of expendable filler contracts, a deep-pocketed owner, a need for scoring and pace from the guard position, and a desperation to win now.

I can see taking back Williams who is expiring. But, do we want Bledsoe at this point in his career?

If Westbrook has a good season (as I expect he will), I'd hope we could get back young players & picks for him. Somehow.

[Rafael122]

Paul went from having one of the worse contracts into being traded to Phoenix in hopes that they can contend or make the playoffs. All it takes is 1 good year, all it takes is 1 team to do something stupid.

The 2021 free agent class is looking terrible if all the big guns sign with their current teams. Davis didn't do a 1+1, James is staying put. The class could be headlined by a soon to be 30 year old Victor Oladipo so if Russ puts up a 25/8/8 type of year, I could see the Knicks calling next summer.