Last 10 seconds - Lebron vs Kobe

[Rapcity_11]

Stats can easily be manipulated, and any statistician or analyst will tell you so. It's guys like Gongxi who clearly don't actually do much statistical analysis who think otherwise.

That definition is horrifically flawed because by its definition it's completely irrelevant to whether a shot is actually really a game winning opportunity or not. If I hit a shot with 30 seconds left to put my team up by one, the other team likely has at the minimum two shot attempts. The last 30 seconds is an eternity in basketball, and while performance there absolutely DOES matter, it'd be akin to saying that your performance in the 2 minute drill in football tells you which QB you'd want for the final play with 3 seconds left. Last 5 minutes/5 points is even worse; it'd be like your performance in the last 7 minutes of a football game.

And you must be kidding about LeBron's lack of fanboys.

Show me some manipulation then, if it's so easy.

First off, they use the final 24 seconds, not 30. What does it matter what happens after the shot is made? How your team defends after the fact is irrelevant to the shot that was just taken. If the teams gets the stop or not, the previous go ahead shot was still clutch. Using your football example, if a QB leads a drive down the field and scores with 15 seconds left to take the lead and then his defense/special teams blows it, is he any less clutch?

The last 5 mins/5 points is useful because is provides a much bigger sample size. The definition of clutch isn't perfect but it's certainly a reasonable definition.

I honestly don't see that many Lebron fanboys. Everybody in Cleveland hates him now, and the Heat don't really have many fans. Kobe's fanboys are far more numerous.

Kindly look up data dredging. Statistical manipulation is so absurdly easy and common that I shouldn't need to "show" you any. Ever built a financial deck? Statistical manipulation is highlighting that a corporation has seen massive revenue growth while ignoring the fact that there has been no growth in profits, or that a company is the industry leader... with the following 6 qualifiers. More innocuously, statistical manipulation can be unintentional, and the product of a poorly defined data set, or a flawed way of looking at the data.

And no, I don't find 30 seconds to be particularly clutch, or 5 minutes/5 points clutch at all. And to extend the football analogy, if Brett Favre drives down the field in the 2 minute drill and then throws the game-sealing interception, then no, he's not clutch. Clutch is when its for all the marbles and all the pressure is there, not when there is still plenty of time to recover. 5 minutes/5 points is just as arbitrary as 4th quarter/10 points.

Kobe fanboys being more numerous is completely irrelevant to LeBron having a legion of rabid fanboys that would defend him to the death if they could.

We clearly have different definition of what manipulation is. What you are suggesting, like the revenue vs. profit example isn't even close to manipulation. It's up to the person looking at the statistic to consider it's context and what it represents. Misleading is the word you are looking for.

Continuing with football, you completely ignored my scenario of the QB getting the go ahead score then his defense blowing it.

Clutch has no precise definition. That's your opinion. What you can't argue is that 5 mins/5 points is an important part of the game.

And I read that blog response to Abbott a while back. It wreaks of Laker/Kobe bias. Abbott's piece is certainly more objective.

I don't see those Lebron fanboys anymore, but hey who cares...?

[Gongxi]

Stats can easily be manipulated, and any statistician or analyst will tell you so. It's guys like Gongxi who clearly don't actually do much statistical analysis who think otherwise.

No one ever said stats can't be manipulated. I'm laughing at the "stats lie!!!" line. If something is lying between stats and your memory, I promise you it's your memory. Be aware.

[joelafan]

Heres wiki definiton on the word clutch - A "clutch" athlete is one who performs well in pivotal or high pressure situations. This includes many instances where a good performance means the difference between a win and a loss. Being on many championship teams (preferably with different franchises, or in different seasons with different teammates) seems to help a player's reputation for being clutch, but it is no guarantee in and of itself. Seizing upon one's opportunities in pressure situations is the common thread among all "clutch" players, though, as a player's poor past performance will be forgotten if he/she can make one big play under pressure. Of course, the opposite of being "clutch" is being a "choker," or one who is, by definition, never clutch, a player doomed to fail in any and all pressure-packed situations.

i lold.

[azuresou1]

Stats can easily be manipulated, and any statistician or analyst will tell you so. It's guys like Gongxi who clearly don't actually do much statistical analysis who think otherwise.

No one ever said stats can't be manipulated. I'm laughing at the "stats lie!!!" line. If something is lying between stats and your memory, I promise you it's your memory. Be aware.

Oh really? It's my memory?

Whoever, ya know, verifiable evidence and statistics point to. Not to what some dudes randomly think based upon their selection bias and anecdotal memory.

Crazy concept, I know: let the facts guide you to your conclusion.

Statistics can easily be manipulated, which is why up till recently all the LeBron fanboys floated the "LeBron is super clutch" argument based off 82games horrifically flawed definition of 'game winning shot' instead of taking account what their eyes told them, which is that LeBron almost always bricks gamewinners.

No, you **** up.

XFD.

Anyways, going back to football, no, if the QB scores with 15 seconds left, he is still clutch, even if his defense loses. That's why the basketball definition we are looking at is with 10 seconds left. However, 30 seconds is such a mammoth window of time that it really is quite similar to the 2 minute drill in football, given that basketball has so many timeouts and clock stoppages. 30 seconds is enough for 8-9 offensive possessions between the two teams; 10 seconds is enough for probably 2, 3 at most.

5 minutes/5 points really isn't important because it's so arbitrary. If the Lakers are blowing a huge lead late in the 4th and Kobe comes back in and drills a three while up 6 with 2 minutes left, how is that less clutch than him making a routine basket in the flow of the offense with the Lakers up 5 with 5 minutes left? It's not.

Abbott's article reeks of bias, and that blog response is biased as well, but at least acknowledges its weaknesses.

[Rapcity_11]

Stats can easily be manipulated, and any statistician or analyst will tell you so. It's guys like Gongxi who clearly don't actually do much statistical analysis who think otherwise.

No one ever said stats can't be manipulated. I'm laughing at the "stats lie!!!" line. If something is lying between stats and your memory, I promise you it's your memory. Be aware.

Oh really? It's my memory?

Whoever, ya know, verifiable evidence and statistics point to. Not to what some dudes randomly think based upon their selection bias and anecdotal memory.

Crazy concept, I know: let the facts guide you to your conclusion.

Statistics can easily be manipulated, which is why up till recently all the LeBron fanboys floated the "LeBron is super clutch" argument based off 82games horrifically flawed definition of 'game winning shot' instead of taking account what their eyes told them, which is that LeBron almost always bricks gamewinners.

No, you **** up.

XFD.

Anyways, going back to football, no, if the QB scores with 15 seconds left, he is still clutch, even if his defense loses. That's why the basketball definition we are looking at is with 10 seconds left. However, 30 seconds is such a mammoth window of time that it really is quite similar to the 2 minute drill in football, given that basketball has so many timeouts and clock stoppages. 30 seconds is enough for 8-9 offensive possessions between the two teams; 10 seconds is enough for probably 2, 3 at most.

5 minutes/5 points really isn't important because it's so arbitrary. If the Lakers are blowing a huge lead late in the 4th and Kobe comes back in and drills a three while up 6 with 2 minutes left, how is that less clutch than him making a routine basket in the flow of the offense with the Lakers up 5 with 5 minutes left? It's not.

Abbott's article reeks of bias, and that blog response is biased as well, but at least acknowledges its weaknesses.

Your sig says everything I need to know about you. Typical Kobe homer that will spin anything to make Kobe look the best. Frustrating.

If a QB scores with 1 minute left, it was clutch. If a basketball players makes a shot with 11 seconds left, it was clutch.

And no response on my first point in my previous post about manipulation...

Abbott's article was fine. What was so biased about it?

[ElGee]

Stats can easily be manipulated, and any statistician or analyst will tell you so. It's guys like Gongxi who clearly don't actually do much statistical analysis who think otherwise.

...

That definition is horrifically flawed because by its definition it's completely irrelevant to whether a shot is actually really a game winning opportunity or not. If I hit a shot with 30 seconds left to put my team up by one, the other team likely has at the minimum two shot attempts. The last 30 seconds is an eternity in basketball, and while performance there absolutely DOES matter, it'd be akin to saying that your performance in the 2 minute drill in football tells you which QB you'd want for the final play with 3 seconds left. Last 5 minutes/5 points is even worse; it'd be like your performance in the last 7 minutes of a football game.

And you must be kidding about LeBron's lack of fanboys.

Curious about a few things:

(1) Who are these "fanboys?" I didn't think anyone outside of Miami liked LeBron

(2) Statistics represent something. In basketball, they are unbiased in that they measure every play evenly. The problem with them is they only measure what they measure (they're incomplete). The onus would be on you to show how these stats are being "manipulated" (independent of whether a financial company or journalist or drug company has misrepresented stats in the past).

(3) Every point in a basketball game counts the same. Period. What we call "clutch" needs to be arbitrary, so picking a cutoff point that fits the criteria is reasonable. 5 minutes in close games is fine. So is 3 minutes in 3-point games. So is the final minute. They are all arbitrary, they will just tell you something slightly different.

And yes, your performance in the last 7 of a football game (with only 1 or 2 possessions left??) could be considered clutch. If you want the definition of "clutch" to be "any time it really feels like my team NEEDS a good play," then "clutch" would be any point in the game in which the win probability of the team doesn't approach 1 (ie most of the game).

[azuresou1]

I'm actually not a Lakers or Kobe fan, try harder. Your ad hominem is also completely irrelevant to the points at hand.

Yes, if a QB scores with 1 minute left, it's clutch, and if a basketball player makes a shot with 11 seconds left, it's clutch as well. Did you miss the entire segment on offensive possessions left and why hitting a shot with 10 seconds left is more clutch than hitting a shot with 30 seconds left?

ANYONE who does any sort of work with stats will tell you how easily it is to manipulate stats to support your point. Why are we even having the debate about 30 seconds vs. 10 seconds, or 5 min/5 points? Because those are constraints/specifications which can/have been manipulated to provide a story.

[azuresou1]

Stats can easily be manipulated, and any statistician or analyst will tell you so. It's guys like Gongxi who clearly don't actually do much statistical analysis who think otherwise.

...

That definition is horrifically flawed because by its definition it's completely irrelevant to whether a shot is actually really a game winning opportunity or not. If I hit a shot with 30 seconds left to put my team up by one, the other team likely has at the minimum two shot attempts. The last 30 seconds is an eternity in basketball, and while performance there absolutely DOES matter, it'd be akin to saying that your performance in the 2 minute drill in football tells you which QB you'd want for the final play with 3 seconds left. Last 5 minutes/5 points is even worse; it'd be like your performance in the last 7 minutes of a football game.

And you must be kidding about LeBron's lack of fanboys.

Curious about a few things:

(1) Who are these "fanboys?" I didn't think anyone outside of Miami liked LeBron

(2) Statistics represent something. In basketball, they are unbiased in that they measure every play evenly. The problem with them is they only measure what they measure (they're incomplete). The onus would be on you to show how these stats are being "manipulated" (independent of whether a financial company or journalist or drug company has misrepresented stats in the past).

(3) Every point in a basketball game counts the same. Period. What we call "clutch" needs to be arbitrary, so picking a cutoff point that fits the criteria is reasonable. 5 minutes in close games is fine. So is 3 minutes in 3-point games. So is the final minute. They are all arbitrary, they will just tell you something slightly different.

And yes, your performance in the last 7 of a football game (with only 1 or 2 possessions left??) could be considered clutch. If you want the definition of "clutch" to be "any time it really feels like my team NEEDS a good play," then "clutch" would be any point in the game in which the win probability of the team doesn't approach 1 (ie most of the game).

1. Feel free to hope over to General NBA Discussion and see the LeBron Defense Force in action.
2. Sure, the stats themselves don't lie, and I have never said they do. The manipulation portion comes in how the data is pulled, which is why 5/5 suggests that LeBron is tremendously clutch and Kobe is a horrible chucking ballhog, while last 10 seconds suggests that LeBron shoots gamewinners like Biedrins shoots free throws, while Kobe drills shots like nobody's business. What does each stat tell me about their respective clutch abilities in a void?
3. Your definition of clutch is different from mine, which is yet another instance of stat manipulation. I will disregard stats that I don't think indicate clutchness, like 5/5. You, on the other hand, will.

[Rapcity_11]

Stats can easily be manipulated, and any statistician or analyst will tell you so. It's guys like Gongxi who clearly don't actually do much statistical analysis who think otherwise.

...

That definition is horrifically flawed because by its definition it's completely irrelevant to whether a shot is actually really a game winning opportunity or not. If I hit a shot with 30 seconds left to put my team up by one, the other team likely has at the minimum two shot attempts. The last 30 seconds is an eternity in basketball, and while performance there absolutely DOES matter, it'd be akin to saying that your performance in the 2 minute drill in football tells you which QB you'd want for the final play with 3 seconds left. Last 5 minutes/5 points is even worse; it'd be like your performance in the last 7 minutes of a football game.

And you must be kidding about LeBron's lack of fanboys.

Curious about a few things:

(1) Who are these "fanboys?" I didn't think anyone outside of Miami liked LeBron

(2) Statistics represent something. In basketball, they are unbiased in that they measure every play evenly. The problem with them is they only measure what they measure (they're incomplete). The onus would be on you to show how these stats are being "manipulated" (independent of whether a financial company or journalist or drug company has misrepresented stats in the past).

(3) Every point in a basketball game counts the same. Period. What we call "clutch" needs to be arbitrary, so picking a cutoff point that fits the criteria is reasonable. 5 minutes in close games is fine. So is 3 minutes in 3-point games. So is the final minute. They are all arbitrary, they will just tell you something slightly different.

And yes, your performance in the last 7 of a football game (with only 1 or 2 possessions left??) could be considered clutch. If you want the definition of "clutch" to be "any time it really feels like my team NEEDS a good play," then "clutch" would be any point in the game in which the win probability of the team doesn't approach 1 (ie most of the game).

1. Feel free to hope over to General NBA Discussion and see the LeBron Defense Force in action.
2. Sure, the stats themselves don't lie, and I have never said they do. The manipulation portion comes in how the data is pulled, which is why 5/5 suggests that LeBron is tremendously clutch and Kobe is a horrible chucking ballhog, while last 10 seconds suggests that LeBron shoots gamewinners like Biedrins shoots free throws, while Kobe drills shots like nobody's business. What does each stat tell me about their respective clutch abilities in a void?
3. Your definition of clutch is different from mine, which is yet another instance of stat manipulation. I will disregard stats that I don't think indicate clutchness, like 5/5. You, on the other hand, will.

1. I'm on the Gen board plenty. I mostly see Lebron haters...
2. Um, Kobe always measures out very well in 5/5, just not quite on Lebron's level.

[Jay24]

:lol:

I bet these clowns think K. Love is top 5 in the league too.

"21/16/3/59% TSZ!! 25 PERZ!!!!!!!"

[KING JAMES1978]

People Forget that Kobe in the Playoff is 6-22 in winning shots in his career.
They use his winning shots in the Regular season to prove that he is clutch but at the big stage as a clutch player he is overrated as ****.6-22.

[KING JAMES1978]

I'm sure you guys have seen the stat of this year's Miami Heat: In the last 10 seconds of the 4th or overtime, with the Heat tied or down 1-3pts (one FG), the Heat are shooting 1-18 this season...

We've seen some numbers and blah blah come out showing how Kobe isn't that clutch, or whatever with clutch being defined in various ways (last 5 minutes, last 2 minutes, each team up or down 5... etc).

I like the 10 second clutch stat (FGM-FGA in the last 10 seconds of the 4th or OT, with the player's team tied or down 1-3) as a different look on things than we've had in the past because:
A. That means it's basically last second shot time
B. It's when your team is tied or down one shot.. which is much different and feels different than you getting a FGA with your team up 3. In this definition, if you miss, you lose or go into OT for sure basically.

I took it upon myself to go through ESPN play-by-plays of Lebron and Kobe (for obvious reasons) to see what the stats show under this definition of clutch.

Lebron and Kobe's "Last 10sec" Clutch stats for 07-08 til present.

Lebron James
07-08: 5-11 (45.5%)
08-09: 1-4 (25%)
09-10: 1-8 (12.5%)
10-11: 1-8 (12.5%)
Total (through last 4 seasons): 8-31 (25.8%)

Kobe Bryant
07-08: 1-3 (33.3%)
08-09: 2-6 (33.3%)
09-10: 7-11 (63.6%)
10-11: 1-3 (33.3%)
Total (through last 4 seasons): 11-23 (47.8%)

I'll keep updating.

Kobe Bryant at the Playoffs.6-22
LeBron James at the Playoffs.5-9
As I hate LeBron after the decision I hate more when Kobe's fans continue to overrate him.
In the postseason he isn't clutch.

[joelafan]

People Forget that Kobe in the Playoff is 6-22 in winning shots in his career.
They use his winning shots in the Regular season to prove that he is clutch but at the big stage as a clutch player he is overrated as ****.6-22.

Haters going to hate.

[ElGee]

Stats can easily be manipulated, and any statistician or analyst will tell you so. It's guys like Gongxi who clearly don't actually do much statistical analysis who think otherwise.

...

That definition is horrifically flawed because by its definition it's completely irrelevant to whether a shot is actually really a game winning opportunity or not. If I hit a shot with 30 seconds left to put my team up by one, the other team likely has at the minimum two shot attempts. The last 30 seconds is an eternity in basketball, and while performance there absolutely DOES matter, it'd be akin to saying that your performance in the 2 minute drill in football tells you which QB you'd want for the final play with 3 seconds left. Last 5 minutes/5 points is even worse; it'd be like your performance in the last 7 minutes of a football game.

And you must be kidding about LeBron's lack of fanboys.

Curious about a few things:

(1) Who are these "fanboys?" I didn't think anyone outside of Miami liked LeBron

(2) Statistics represent something. In basketball, they are unbiased in that they measure every play evenly. The problem with them is they only measure what they measure (they're incomplete). The onus would be on you to show how these stats are being "manipulated" (independent of whether a financial company or journalist or drug company has misrepresented stats in the past).

(3) Every point in a basketball game counts the same. Period. What we call "clutch" needs to be arbitrary, so picking a cutoff point that fits the criteria is reasonable. 5 minutes in close games is fine. So is 3 minutes in 3-point games. So is the final minute. They are all arbitrary, they will just tell you something slightly different.

And yes, your performance in the last 7 of a football game (with only 1 or 2 possessions left??) could be considered clutch. If you want the definition of "clutch" to be "any time it really feels like my team NEEDS a good play," then "clutch" would be any point in the game in which the win probability of the team doesn't approach 1 (ie most of the game).

1. Feel free to hope over to General NBA Discussion and see the LeBron Defense Force in action.
2. Sure, the stats themselves don't lie, and I have never said they do. The manipulation portion comes in how the data is pulled, which is why 5/5 suggests that LeBron is tremendously clutch and Kobe is a horrible chucking ballhog, while last 10 seconds suggests that LeBron shoots gamewinners like Biedrins shoots free throws, while Kobe drills shots like nobody's business. What does each stat tell me about their respective clutch abilities in a void?
3. Your definition of clutch is different from mine, which is yet another instance of stat manipulation. I will disregard stats that I don't think indicate clutchness, like 5/5. You, on the other hand, will.

1. Not on the Gen board too much, but I don't see a lot of support for him over there. ?

2. Think about what you're saying: "what does each stat tell me about something I don't have a concrete definition for?" You would need to identify what makes something clutch before you disregard clutch criteria, no? Also, not sure where you're getting this information about Kobe. He does quite poorly on *your* criteria, and quite well on the 82games criteria.

3. Wow. "Stat manipulation" and having a different definition of something are far different. (Furthermore, you don't even know my definition )

[KING JAMES1978]

People Forget that Kobe in the Playoff is 6-22 in winning shots in his career.
They use his winning shots in the Regular season to prove that he is clutch but at the big stage as a clutch player he is overrated as ****.6-22.

Haters going to hate.

Haters going to hate.I agree.Εspecially when people overrate players.Who is the clutch player?6-22 in his playoff career?Is he clutch really?

[Imadogg]

People Forget that Kobe in the Playoff is 6-22 in winning shots in his career.
They use his winning shots in the Regular season to prove that he is clutch but at the big stage as a clutch player he is overrated as ****.6-22.

Not trying to prove anything, I was wondering if there were playoff numbers somewhere, link?

I'm gonna probably look up playoff stats under this criteria too when I get time

[KING JAMES1978]

People Forget that Kobe in the Playoff is 6-22 in winning shots in his career.
They use his winning shots in the Regular season to prove that he is clutch but at the big stage as a clutch player he is overrated as ****.6-22.

Not trying to prove anything, I was wondering if there were playoff numbers somewhere, link?

I'm gonna probably look up playoff stats under this criteria too when I get time

Well say anything you want about Lebron.I don't care.But stop overrate Kobe.
In the postseason he isn't clutch.6-22.

[joelafan]

you havent watched game 4 Pacers and lakers finals have you? Is the numbers 6-22 bad sure. Does kobe raise his for the playoffs?? Aboustley. Is that clutch? I think so.. Stepping up in key moments like the playoffs sound pretty clutch.

[KING JAMES1978]

you havent watched game 4 Pacers and lakers finals have you? Is the numbers 6-22 bad sure. Does kobe raise his for the playoffs?? Aboustley. Is that clutch? I think so.. Stepping up in key moments like the playoffs sound pretty clutch.

So what?Shaq was out in OT and he was good.
But this doesn't change that he missed shots with Jazz '96,with Spurs '99,with Sixers 2001,with Kings 2002(game 5 & game 7),with Timberwolves 2003( 2 shots in the same game OT),with Spurs 2003,with Rockets 2004(game 1 & Game 4),With Suns 2006(game 6 because people remember only game 4),With Jazz 2009,with Orlando 2009(Hedo......),with Thunder 2010(game 6),with Suns 2010(game 5).
In the Playoff he is 6-22.

[azuresou1]

1. All the LeBron homers have been cowed these past few weeks.
2. This ENTIRE argument is stemming from Gongxi's laughable idea that "verifiable evidence and statistics" determine who is most clutch when clearly statistics can be manipulated to tell different stories. The data from 5/5 and last 10 seconds is both coming from the same source: NBA games. And yet they indicate different stories.

2009-2010 5/5
Lebron: 66.1 PP48, .488 FG%
Kobe: 51.2 PP48, .444 FG%

2009/2010 last 10 sec
LeBron: 1-8 FGA
Kobe: 7-11 FGA

Those to you don't indicate that statistics can be manipulated to tell different stories?

3. I'm not sure why you think stat manipulation has to be this intrinsically evil thing. And no, I don't know your full definition, but that you think 5/5 is valid and that I don't already would indicate our definitions are different.