TI: Bogut for Horford Poll (Time to move on Herb?)

[Swan Vox]

And importantly, as unrealistic as either scenario is, it's more realistic envisioning this one-year mini-rebuild scenario.

If you somehow have to sell it to Herb Kohl as a short-term fix, then we can figure out a "win-now" for him that might just work.

Bogut/Stephen Jackson for Horford/Hinrich expiring. (I'd argue we should get an extra asset coming back but that would be the worst case I'd settle for and I think 100% gets that deal done from the Hawks perspective)

We then would have $18 million +/- of cap room next year. Tell Kohl we are going to draft BPA with our top 5 pick, then sign free agent Chris Kaman to a 4-year/$35mm deal and Ray Allen to a 2-year/$18 million dollar deal.

Then we roll next season with a lineup of Horford, Kaman, Ray, Delfino, Jennings, top 5 pick, Moute, Leuer, Sanders, Harris, Udrih, Livingston. That team should be enough win now to keep Herb's interest.

ETA: By dumping both Bogut and Jackson, we might just get the #1 overall.

This.

It's assuming a lot of things, but I'd much rather have my aging wing be Ray Allen than Stephan Jackson. This has the added benefit of bringing back a gate attraction in Allen.

Add to that a legit PF in Horford, a High-lotto wing / Big man, and a serviceable center in Kaman and we have a much better chance at winning than Bogut, Jackson and a mid-first round pick.

Which would you rather have:

-Bogut
-Jackson
-Mid-first rd pick

or

-Horford
-Allen
-Kaman
-High-lotto pick

(I know this is assuming a lot of dominos falling correctly, but I like it)

[ampd]

If we are going to attempt one of these 1-2 year rebuilds now is the time. Our contracts are structured perfectly for it.

We don't even have to necessarily go after Ray and Kaman if there are better opportunities out there. They key is to not do what Hammond has done in the past with these situations (like with Redd several times, Sessions, etc) and simply do nothing and waste the assets.

[brettski]

Here's another stat for you all:

Games played average per season:

Al Horford: 76.5
Tim Duncan: 75.2

Andrew Bogut: 66 (minus whatever "pube" games you want to count against him)

The guy is great when he shows up...but he just cannot be counted on physically or mentally to do that consistantly. It's the same attitude that victims of domestic abuse use for staying in the relationship..."well, he treats me well...sometimes." Andrew is a fan-abuser, plain and simple.

It's time to move on.

Misleading given Horford is about to miss the next 50 odd games........

[paulpressey25]

This.

It's assuming a lot of things, but I'd much rather have my aging wing be Ray Allen than Stephan Jackson.

Just bookmark this thread.

Then the next time when I go into one of my swamp fever rants on Hammond, we've got something to refer back to. So many of the Hammond defenders always claim that these critiques of Hammond are done with the benefit of hindsight and that no other good options were really available.

Here is another "real-time" plan that is very realistic. If we had guts and smarts, we'd pull it off.

Horford/Kaman/Ray is >= Bogut/Jackson. And the most important part is we maybe end up with Barnes, Drummond, Davis, Lamb, etc. Take your pick.

[raferfenix]

I think the Hawks might trade Horford for Bogut even if Al was healthy.

They have to make a decision on him or Josh Smith long term if Horford were to ever play his natural position, and apparently Smith is lighting it up this season.

The fact that the Hawks were aggressively pursuing Dwight Howard shows that they were ready to take a bold and risky move to shake up their roster by getting bigger.

Bogut helps give them a more conventional roster, while also not having to gut their roster or having to risk their prime acquisition walking after a year.

[raferfenix]

This.

It's assuming a lot of things, but I'd much rather have my aging wing be Ray Allen than Stephan Jackson.

Just bookmark this thread.

Then the next time when I go into one of my swamp fever rants on Hammond, we've got something to refer back to. So many of the Hammond defenders always claim that these critiques of Hammond are done with the benefit of hindsight and that no other good options were really available.

Here is another "real-time" plan that is very realistic. If we had guts and smarts, we'd pull it off.

Horford/Kaman/Ray is >= Bogut/Jackson. And the most important part is we maybe end up with Barnes, Drummond, Davis, Lamb, etc. Take your pick.

I'd be all for dumping Jackson for expirings, provided it doesn't put Jennings into a funk where he immediately starts publicly clamoring to get out.

Jackson is an extremely popular player though, and it seems like him and Jennings have a good relationship. I'm all good keeping him around if it doesn't screw up our draft positioning.

[Scoops]

Can injured players even be traded? I think I'm asking that question because in video games it never lets you trade guys who are hurt.

[ampd]

Don't like this trade idea.

If you are going to following OKC model and Portland model than you need multiple picks. This would be a great draft to get multiple number 1 picks. If you are moving Bogut then you need a #1 pick out of it. This would give the Bucks two picks in the first round of a deep draft.

I would look to try and move Bogut to teams like Sac, Washington, Minnesota etc... for a number 1 and fillers.

I agree that this is a lateral move.

Portland is following the OKC model? They responded to losing Roy who was their best player before his knees gave out, and their #1 draft pick Oden, by giving up first rounders for Gerald Wallace and another 1st and Andre Miller for Felton.

Batum was drafted 25th overall. Matthews was undrafted by the Jazz and signed in free agency. They traded Steve Blake (hardly massive value) for Camby. They traded another 1st for felton. They gave up Tyrus Thomas and a 1st to draft Aldridge. They signed Jamaal Crawford and Kurt thomas in free agency.

Portland's current team was not even mostly built by tanking or even trading the assets gained by tanking other than arguably Aldridge. They have had horrible injury luck with the guys they tanked for or drafted outside of Batum. Mostly they have just been really shrewd with their player acquisitions in a way we haven't.

Did Portland tank? Sure they did. Is that the main reason why they currently have more talent? No.

[RiotPunch]

Can injured players even be traded? I think I'm asking that question because in video games it never lets you trade guys who are hurt.

Wondered the same thing for the same reason.

[KingCammo]

You guys give Hammond crap for shuffling the deck and then want to do exactly the same thing yourselves. Horford is with Bogut in that 2nd tier centre range and isn't likely to join the Dwight's of the league.

How exactly does Horford put us in a better situation than the crappy mediocre one we're already in? What makes you think we'd tank hard enough to land a stud when all evidence of the past seasons has shown to the contrary even with Bogut out?

Fact is, you tankers are living in the same noddy land that the optimists are. Kohl, this organisation, will not tank. It sucks, but it's true.

[ampd]

How exactly does Horford put us in a better situation than the crappy mediocre one we're already in?

He doesn't. What he does is set us up to do a mini spurs tank for 1 season, grab a top 5 draft pick (maybe better) and add him to our crappy situation hopefully adding our Tim Duncan (analogically at least).

[MickeyDavis]

You guys give Hammond crap for shuffling the deck and then want to do exactly the same thing yourselves. Horford is with Bogut in that 2nd tier centre range and isn't likely to join the Dwight's of the league.

How exactly does Horford put us in a better situation than the crappy mediocre one we're already in?

The whole point you're missing about getting Horford is that since he's out for the rest of this season we'll get a top 5 pick as well.

[Swan Vox]

You guys give Hammond crap for shuffling the deck and then want to do exactly the same thing yourselves. Horford is with Bogut in that 2nd tier centre range and isn't likely to join the Dwight's of the league.

How exactly does Horford put us in a better situation than the crappy mediocre one we're already in? What makes you think we'd tank hard enough to land a stud when all evidence of the past seasons has shown to the contrary even with Bogut out?

Fact is, you tankers are living in the same noddy land that the optimists are. Kohl, this organisation, will not tank. It sucks, but it's true.

This team as-is would be lucky to win 10 more games the rest of this season without Bogut.

The benefit of all this is adding a high-lotto pick to the young talent base, while at same time allowing Herb to save face by having a "win-soon" plan.

[KingCammo]

How exactly does Horford put us in a better situation than the crappy mediocre one we're already in?

He doesn't. What he does is set us up to do a mini spurs tank for 1 season, grab a top 5 draft pick (maybe better) and add him to our crappy situation hopefully adding our Tim Duncan (analogically at least).

What makes you think we'd tank hard enough to land a stud when all evidence of the past seasons has shown to the contrary even with Bogut out?

[KingCammo]

You guys give Hammond crap for shuffling the deck and then want to do exactly the same thing yourselves. Horford is with Bogut in that 2nd tier centre range and isn't likely to join the Dwight's of the league.

How exactly does Horford put us in a better situation than the crappy mediocre one we're already in?

The whole point you're missing about getting Horford is that since he's out for the rest of this season we'll get a top 5 pick as well.

What makes you think we'd tank hard enough to land a stud when all evidence of the past seasons has shown to the contrary even with Bogut out?

[KingCammo]

You guys give Hammond crap for shuffling the deck and then want to do exactly the same thing yourselves. Horford is with Bogut in that 2nd tier centre range and isn't likely to join the Dwight's of the league.

How exactly does Horford put us in a better situation than the crappy mediocre one we're already in? What makes you think we'd tank hard enough to land a stud when all evidence of the past seasons has shown to the contrary even with Bogut out?

Fact is, you tankers are living in the same noddy land that the optimists are. Kohl, this organisation, will not tank. It sucks, but it's true.

This team as-is would be lucky to win 10 more games the rest of this season without Bogut.

The benefit of all this is adding a high-lotto pick to the young talent base, while at same time allowing Herb to save face by having a "win-soon" plan.

Bogut only played 36 games in the 2008-09 season and we still couldn't tank hard enough to get a top 5 pick. Even with a crappier team! **** that was a frustrating season.

[Swan Vox]

You guys give Hammond crap for shuffling the deck and then want to do exactly the same thing yourselves. Horford is with Bogut in that 2nd tier centre range and isn't likely to join the Dwight's of the league.

How exactly does Horford put us in a better situation than the crappy mediocre one we're already in? What makes you think we'd tank hard enough to land a stud when all evidence of the past seasons has shown to the contrary even with Bogut out?

Fact is, you tankers are living in the same noddy land that the optimists are. Kohl, this organisation, will not tank. It sucks, but it's true.

This team as-is would be lucky to win 10 more games the rest of this season without Bogut.

The benefit of all this is adding a high-lotto pick to the young talent base, while at same time allowing Herb to save face by having a "win-soon" plan.

Bogut only played 36 games in the 2008-09 season and we still couldn't tank hard enough to get a top 5 pick. Even with a crappier team! **** that was a frustrating season.

We have a secret weapon this year:

[beyond_the_arc]

Horford is not as good and only 18 mos. younger than Bogut. No way I simply swap the two of them as the only thing that makes sense is the two of them playing side by side.

[Baddy Chuck]

I like Horford more then Bogut as well because it gives us the option to draft/sign a center as well. If you don't have a center, Horford's your center but if you do, Horford can move to the PF with ease. How nice would it have been in 07-08 to move Bogut to the PF and draft Lopez, Horford can give us that ability.

[Baddy Chuck]

Horford is not as good and only 18 mos. younger than Bogut. No way I simply swap the two of them as the only thing that makes sense is the two of them playing side by side.

He may not be quite the shotblocker Bogut is but he is still a good defender and is 2x the offensive player Bogut is. There's 2 other guys that would be the Bucks best player on the Hawks and Horford still puts up more PPG then Bogut on a much better shooting percentage.