The 2013 NBA Free Agency Thread

[Dat2U]

Greg Oden is one of those guys like Phil Jackson . . . you have to be interested if you are a serious basketball team (which I'm not sure the Wiz are). I'd certainly rather put the money we are using on Vesely and Singleton into a higher risk/higher reward option like Oden and cut those one of both of those two loose. Then he is only competing with Seraphin and whoever we get as a 5th big with a second round DC or an Earl Barron type and there should be minutes behind our veteran bigs with a possibility of starting next year with Okafor's contract runs out if he shows a lot. With the defense we showed last year, the young guns at guard, and the big situation, it should be sellable to Oden's camp if our medical staff thinks he is ready.

It would make a lot of sense from Oden's perspective if Okafor wasn't on the roster and instead we had a starting-caliber PF (other than Nene). That way Oden could get starter's minutes but we'd still have the luxury of giving him periodic breaks because Nene and Seraphin could handle all the center minutes if necessary.

Overall, I'm not particularly interested. It's possible that he could come back. It's possible, but less likely that when he comes back, he'll actually be better than Okafor. But if so, I think the likelihood is that he won't last an entire season, and if he does, he probably will be too banged up to be much good in the playoffs.

I don't think any team is going to go in with the expectation that Oden is going to come in and start. Dude hasn't played competitive basketball in over 2 years. Right now the first step for Oden is proving he can still play at an NBA level. Secondly, proving he can stay healthy. I think any good staff would put him on a minutes limit initially, make sure he doesn't push him self too hard or too fast.

I think he's worth a look, but he's probably going to get to pick & choose where he goes. I suspect he's looking at a one year deal with a team like Miami, Dallas, or maybe even Phoenix because of their medical staff. If he comes here, he'll probably end up retiring half way through the season.

[montestewart]

I think he's worth a look, but he's probably going to get to pick & choose where he goes. I suspect he's looking at a one year deal with a team like Miami, Dallas, or maybe even Phoenix because of their medical staff. If he comes here, he'll probably end up retiring half way through the season.

LA and NYC and, to a lesser extent, Chicago and Boston, attract players and top personnel (well, maybe not NYC with the latter) because they are huge markets with rich NBA history. Miami is a little smaller, but still a big market, an attractive destination, and with a rich recent NBA history.

Small market Pacers, Spurs, Grizzlies are among the likely playoffs final four, and small market Denver did pretty well this season too. Among markets comparable to Washington, Golden State and Houston seem on the ascent and Dallas is perhaps poised to rebuild on the fly.

Depending on how it is calculated, Washington is ranked 4th to 8th largest metropolitan area, yet based on Grunfeld's and Leonsis' demeanors and occasional comments, you'd think DC was a small market that hasn't a chance to attract talent. There are things they can do to change perceptions about DC, like making smart roster moves and creating top flight medical, training and player development programs, and selling those moves.

I don't see that happening until EG is gone and Leonsis lucks into a dynamic, visionary GM and has the sense to stand back and let him work.

[rockymac52]

Rip Hamilton thinks he can play until he is forty. His skills have declined but he looked very decent against Miami in playoff minutes.

I wonder if his ego would allow him to settle into a very limited role behind Beal? Would Rip sign a 1-year deal?

I think Rip's the type of player at this point in his career that would be willing to accept a much smaller role, even on an average or below average team, just to prolong his career and continue to play the game he loves. So I think it's very reasonable that Rip would be willing to sign a 1 year contract with us to be Beal's primary backup.

But as much as I love the guy for what he's accomplished over his career, I think we should pass. That is, unless it's a 1 year deal for the vet minimum and he's genuinely willing to get only 15-20 minutes per game off the bench. If that's the case, then there's really no harm in giving him a shot.

But as far as his actual abilities, they've greatly diminished. Rip is often lauded as the prototypical midrange shooter coming off screens, in the Reggie Miller role. But I don't think that's actually been accurate, as while he has made a living off of that shot, he hasn't been all that efficient shooting off screens at all in his career, and more troubling, he's steadily declined in this regard since 2008. In fact, Rip's actually in the bottom half of the league in efficiency shooting off screens.

Obviously no one would be upset with a short and cheap Rip deal, and as I indicated earlier, I'd be in favor of giving him an opportunity as well, but I'm not expecting much from him (and that's all when he's healthy, which is a huge issue as well).

[rockymac52]

As for Oden, I'm the type of guy who always falls in love with a player like him, with the serious injury history and star pedigree - a player we could theoretically get for a massive discount if he is able to come back 100% healthy and play to his potential. But in my mind, I know this is a terrible idea 9 times out of 10.

The way I see it, I really hope Oden is 100% healthy again. I want to see him have a successful career in the NBA, and I'd love him to return to his true star center potential. Of course I'm skeptical, and I don't actually think he's going to end up having a productive career because of his injuries.

But here's the key point (for us): if we are able to sign Oden, it's because no one else wanted him.

Theoretically, if he was able to prove that he was 100% healthy and ready to dominate at the NBA level, we might be able to sign Oden if we offered him considerably more money than any other team, but again, that's a red flag. More likely, it seems clear that if Oden does actually want to return to the NBA, that it's going to be on a 1 year deal because of his injury history. His goal would be to come back for a year, prove that he's healthy and very good, and then seek a bigger, longer contract the next summer.

It seems logical that Oden would prefer to sign with a contending team, or perhaps the hometown Cavaliers or Grizzlies (he's still very close with Conley and goes to Grizzlies games a lot). I don't want to belittle our current roster or our city, but there's just no way Oden prefers to be here than with a contender, or a team with a personal connection, or perhaps the Suns and their magical medical staff.

So if we ended up in a position to sign him, it's almost definitely because he's not healthy and no one else wants him. Pass.

[Nivek]

Richard Hamilton was AWFUL last season, and has been in decline for several seasons now. Wizards can find someone better.

Oden should sign with Phoenix so he can work with their medical/training staff.

[verbal8]

It seems logical that Oden would prefer to sign with a contending team, or perhaps the hometown Cavaliers or Grizzlies (he's still very close with Conley and goes to Grizzlies games a lot). I don't want to belittle our current roster or our city, but there's just no way Oden prefers to be here than with a contender, or a team with a personal connection, or perhaps the Suns and their magical medical staff.

So if we ended up in a position to sign him, it's almost definitely because he's not healthy and no one else wants him. Pass.

I think given his injury history, even if is health checks out, I would say the going rate for him will likely be the full MLE.

Memphis could offer that if interested, so they would be the front-runners. However they may figure they need the MLE on two players or one player with less risk. The Spurs also could have interest and the full MLE to offer. A lot of the big market/contender teams like the Lakers and Knicks could have interest, but only have the Lux Tax MLE to offer.

The Cavs might be one of a few teams willing to use cap space on Oden, which could beat any MLE offers. The Suns might be another they have cap space(although it may be less than the MLE) and desperately need talent.

However you also have to factor in what other players are available. A potential match for Oden may think that Bynum is a better risk/reward - although a more expensive one. Brand might be on the other side, lower cost, risk and reward.

[Liverbird]

He would be so smart to sign with PHX if they have interest.

[Deeptu McPullup]

It appears that the Wizards are one of only four teams projected to be over the cap that would be able to work out a sign and trade for a big money player.

That leaves a realistic sign-and-trade market [for players who would earn more than $10m per season] to the following 4 teams: LA Clippers, Minnesota, Toronto, Washington.

http://www.slcdunk.com/2013/1/11/327721 ... -jefferson

There's a veritable stampede of squads with enough cap space to sign expensive players outright, so it's not a huge deal, but still.

I consider us a dark horse to go after Milsap for the following reasons.

1) He'd fit very nicely starting in a three man rotation with Nene and Okafor. It has to be attractive to him for on-court reasons.
2) Utah has stated publicly that they're t̶a̶n̶k̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶W̶i̶g̶g̶i̶n̶s̶ prepared to take a step back next year as they develop youth.
3) We have lots of matching salary available on expendable, expiring and inexperienced bigs, some of whom pass well and don't shoot much, making them good fits with Favors and Kanter.
4) Perhaps most importantly, they have more available cap space than is even remotely convenient. Seriously, how are they going to spend more than $30 million and tank? It isn't a great market for BOYDs as supply and demand is slanted towards too much money chasing after too little talent. Anyway, it's not 'either or' given how much money they have; they can do both, sign a point guard and still have money left over.
5) Ted said the words "free agency" on the air of one of our final games of the season and he wasn't talking about Webster.
6) There only being four teams eligible for a S&T greatly increases Washington's leverage in agreeing on compensation with the Jazz. 'Sota and the Clippers are right out in terms of fit too.
7) Vesely and Satoransky are both young Caucasians with the potential of sending Salt Lake's young ladies into a jersey buying binge of bubbly blushing. I kid, I kid....

That's enough converging for us to be a dark horse, IMO.

However, it's not a big percentage play given how much money is out there and you've got to hate giving Millsap the fourth year that you just know he's going to get.

[nate33]

Interesting notion, Deeptu.

Let's assume Millsap wants 4 years, $40M. That's a 4-year deal starting at $9M with 7.5% raises. (I'm not crazy about him at that price, but let's assume EG has thrown caution to the wind in an attempt to save his job.) The new CBA actually gives us a bit more flexibility as the Trade Exception is now 150% of outgoing salary for under-the-luxtax teams. We would only need to send out $6.0M in salary.

Vesely's cap number is $3.34M. Seraphin's is 2.76M. Booker's is $2.35M. Singleton's is $1.62M. I suppose it's not out of the question for Utah to trade Millsap straight up for Vesely and Seraphin rather than let him walk for nothing. Seraphin isn't a great fit though. Maybe they take Vesely, Booker and a 2nd, and Millsap settles for 4-years, $38M. It's not much return for Utah, but as you point out, they don't exactly have any other viable sign-and-trade options. It's this or nothing at all.

If we drafted McCullom and resigned Webster, our roster next year would look pretty nice, going 8-deep with legit, starting-quality players:

PG Wall/McCullom
SG Beal/McCullom
SF Webster/Ariza
PF Millsap/Nene
C Okafor/Nene
End of bench: Seraphin, Singleton, Temple, 2nd round pick, maybe a Cartier Martin type of shooter

Millsap's contract would eliminate much of our cap flexibility going forward. Next summer, we would have just $8.5M in cap room to go with a lineup of Wall, Beal, Webster, Millsap, Nene, Singleton, McCollum, 2014 1st. The only real choice there would be to extend Okafor for another two years unless Seraphin had some kind of break out. We would probably have enough room under the luxtax to extend Ariza another 2 years as well if we wanted to go that route. In Summer 2016, all contracts would come off the books except Wall and Millsap (with Beal due for an extension).

[Deeptu McPullup]

let's assume EG has thrown caution to the wind in an attempt to save his job.

While I'm willing to suspend disbelief to some extent, this is a little bit too out there for me.

Let's assume Millsap wants 4 years, $40M. That's a 4-year deal starting at $9M with 7.5% raises.

It actually works out under the new CBA to where sign and traded guys can only get 4.5% raises now.

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q89

The new CBA actually gives us a bit more flexibility as the Trade Exception is now 150% of outgoing salary for under-the-luxtax teams. We would only need to send out $6.0M in salary. Vesely's cap number is $3.34M. Seraphin's is 2.76M. Booker's is $2.35M. Singleton's is $1.62M.

Yes, Vesely and Booker seem like the best fits for Utah with Seraphin being a bit awkward there as you mention. I could see them possibly liking Satoransky, especially if they had any hope for Vesely. They'd need to take Singleton as well, which they probably don't want much to do with.

If we drafted McCullom and resigned Webster, our roster next year would look pretty nice, going 8-deep with legit, starting-quality players:

PG Wall/McCullom
SG Beal/McCullom
SF Webster/Ariza
PF Millsap/Nene
C Okafor/Nene
End of bench: Seraphin, Singleton, Temple, 2nd round pick, maybe a Cartier Martin type of shooter

McCollum is indeed the obvious choice to make that squad competitive next year. Maybe I'm a homer, but I believe they'd be in the scrap for the 2nd seed. That roster is locked and loaded for 2014.

Millsap's contract would eliminate much of our cap flexibility going forward. Next summer, we would have just $8.5M in cap room to go with a lineup of Wall, Beal, Webster, Millsap, Nene, Singleton, McCollum, 2014 1st. The only real choice there would be to extend Okafor for another two years unless Seraphin had some kind of break out. We would probably have enough room under the luxtax to extend Ariza another 2 years as well if we wanted to go that route. In Summer 2016, all contracts would come off the books except Wall and Millsap (with Beal due for an extension).

Things indeed get wonky thereafter.

It peaks too soon unless free agent magic happens. A later peak would be forgoing McCollum, drafting a project big and then maybe signing someone younger next year (I'm interested in Patrick Patterson and Ed Davis, even if both are flawed). Alternatively, draft McCollum and trade him on while still on his rookie deal. I'm not a huge fan of strong teams that had been around the tax line suddenly going way under the cap and using the space; they usually lose more talent than they bring in (kind of like Dallas, though they needed to do it with all those old guys).

No matter what we do though, once Wall and Beal are on their second contracts, it's going to be an ongoing struggle to stay under the luxury tax with good bigs in the fold no matter who we're able to bring in. Like OKC is seeing with two mega-money perimeter players, it's one thing to get guys and another thing to keep 'em.

[LyricalRico]

PG Wall/McCullom
SG Beal/McCullom
SF Webster/Ariza
PF Millsap/Nene
C Okafor/Nene
End of bench: Seraphin, Singleton, Temple, 2nd round pick, maybe a Cartier Martin type of shooter

Count me in for this scenario. Deeptu mentioned it may make us "peak too soon", but I don't think so. Indiana has proven that if you can defend, you can go far in the East even if you don't have a superstar player. And I'd say that nate's projected roster is better overall than the one Indy is fielding against Miami right now.

And as nate mentioned we'd still have the option to keep the group together for a few years without paying the tax. Or we could use the non-taxpayer full MLE if we don't keep Okafor/Ariza longterm, not to mention we'd also still have S&T scenarios similar to the Milsap idea as long as we stay below the tax. So I don't think we'd be out of options at all.

[jivelikenice]

Deeptu - Quality scenario. We take ourselves out of the running for a bigtime FA next summer, but this scenario gives us depth at every position with McCollum backing up the guards, Ariza behind Webster, and a three man rotation up front. Nate, couldn't we decline the option on Singleton and have roughly $10 MM which could be used on a replacement for Okafor? With the big bame '14 FA class, maybe we trade for a contract from a team looking to get in on the FA spending that summer? Or maybe $10 MM can get you a Gortat in FA?

[nate33]

Deeptu - Quality scenario. We take ourselves out of the running for a bigtime FA next summer, but this scenario gives us depth at every position with McCollum backing up the guards, Ariza behind Webster, and a three man rotation up front. Nate, couldn't we decline the option on Singleton and have roughly $10 MM which could be used on a replacement for Okafor? With the big bame '14 FA class, maybe we trade for a contract from a team looking to get in on the FA spending that summer? Or maybe $10 MM can get you a Gortat in FA?

Yes. We could dump Singleton and generate about $10M in cap room.

Either way, I think we'd be best off using Bird Rights to retain Okafor and Ariza rather than shop for someone else in 2014. That way we could spend in the neighborhood of $16M on the two players ($10M a year on Okafor, $6M a year on Ariza) rather than be constrained by the $8-10M in cap room we would have. The free agency crop doesn't look all that exciting anyhow.

My long term goal would be to sign all the veterans to contracts that expire in 2016 (when Nene's also expires). That way, we'd have 3 good years of competitive playoff-caliber basketball with Wall, Beal, the 2013 pick and a bunch of good savvy vets. In 2016, we reboot with a younger core consisting of Wall, Beal, 2013 pick, 2014 pick, and enough cap room to sign a max contract big man.

[LyricalRico]

My long term goal would be to sign all the veterans to contracts that expire in 2016 (when Nene's also expires). That way, we'd have 3 good years of competitive playoff-caliber basketball with Wall, Beal, the 2013 pick and a bunch of good savvy vets. In 2016, we reboot with a younger core consisting of Wall, Beal, 2013 pick, 2014 pick, and enough cap room to sign a max contract big man.

Nice. Very nice.

[Rafael122]

Great shot at getting Porter in the draft I think means the end of Martell Webster's tenure in DC. Even if he accepted a lower salary, there's no way you're going to have $12 to $13 million tied up into 3 small forwards.

Re-sign AJ Price with the bi-annual exception.

Split the MLE and try and get a couple of guys to come off the bench. Preferably a back up 4, and a shooting guard.

[TGW]

We need to target Millsap as the #1 priority, with Carl Landry being #2. I'd also like to target Gortat and Scola. We simply cannot go into next season with that goof troop of a big man rotation we have now coming off the bench. It was embarrassing.

Ariza, Price, a backup guard better than what we had this year and a good big man coming off the bench would greatly improve this team.

[barelyawake]

The double b's - belinelli and Beaubois. Both can be had, both are undervalued (one because of injury), and together would make an amazing bench for us in case of injury.

[TGW]

The double b's - belinelli and Beaubois. Both can be had, both are undervalued (one because of injury), and together would make an amazing bench for us in case of injury.

I'd definitely take Bellinelli...he can play. Beaubois...not so much.

[BruceO]

so we have a trade exception? i know many teams have space and seem to be trying to create even more to compete against each other...who do you think we can get that will be dumped for space? what do we give back in return? ariza? something else? we also got a bunch of second rounders this year, last years and i think next years as well

[fishercob]

Great shot at getting Porter in the draft I think means the end of Martell Webster's tenure in DC. Even if he accepted a lower salary, there's no way you're going to have $12 to $13 million tied up into 3 small forwards.

Re-sign AJ Price with the bi-annual exception.

Split the MLE and try and get a couple of guys to come off the bench. Preferably a back up 4, and a shooting guard.

Disagree. We'd be fine for a season with all 3 of Mart3ll, Otto and Ariza. Next year we let Ariza walk and roll with Web and Otto. Plenty of minutes, especially when Ott slides to the 4 in small lineups.