2019 Offseason, June 30th 3PM PT.

[Wizenheimer]

I don't know how many 28+ year old RFA's we will have, but we will lose all our FA's anyways because we cannot afford to pay them. Dumping CJ for a lottery pick in order to resign Hood+Kanter+Layman is not a "chicken little, lets all freak out" type move. I just don't think CJ is that essential to the success of the team - in terms of Win Shares per minute CJ ranks 9th on the team.

among Blazer rotation players, CJ is also 10th in TS%; 9th in FT rate; 5th in assist rate; and 9th in BPM

he looks good in volume stat gauges, but only because he uses so many possessions and attempts so many FG's. He ranks in the top-20 in the NBA in FGA, salary, and contract, but can't crack the top-100 in PER, TS%, assist rate, winshare/48, BPM or RPM. He averages 1.16 points/shot while the rest of the team averages 1.23. Dame averages 1.35, the same as Nurkic. Aminu and Layman average 1.33. Kanter averages 1.32, Hood 1.21, & Curry 1.18.

Portland has several more efficient scoring options than CJ. Cj's 'ability' to create his own offense has always been used to hype his value, but that ability has been overrated and has an inflated value for Portland because the Stotts flow offense breaks down so often, probably because management has done a weak job of adding passers and facilitators to the team

add all that to CJ's terrible defense and your point that CJ isn't 'essential' seems fairly accurate. However, I seriously doubt that Portland could trade CJ for just a TPE. He'll have a 27.6M salary....Blazers would have to take back salary as an offset, maybe a lot of it.

[Malapropism]

Counter-point on McCollum's efficiency though, wouldn't his efficiency be better if he didn't have to take as many bailout possessions from Stotts's flow offense?

[Wizenheimer]

Counter-point on McCollum's efficiency though, wouldn't his efficiency be better if he didn't have to take as many bailout possessions from Stotts's flow offense?

maybe, but last season, according to 82games, only 10% of his shots were taken in the last 3 seconds of the shot clock. Dame was at 7%

a problem is, if the shot clock is running out, it's a good bet that CJ's dribbling is one of the reasons why

[d-train]

More than any other player on the team, CJ gets the ball without a full shot clock and his job is to create a shot after the offense failed. And, I can't think of many other players I would want in this situation ahead of CJ.

[Sinobas]

No, you are wrong. If all you give away is CJ and Turner, you are still $9.3M over the cap. You need to give away more to get under the cap.

Their salaries next year will combine for 46 of the teams 126 mil in committed salary. The projected cap for next year is 109 mil. So how does 126-46= 118?

I thought my explanation was clear.

126+ Salaries
24.7+ Cap holds (Aminu, Layman, Hood, Curry, & 1st rnd pk)
46- CJ & Turner
9.16+ MLE
3.6+ BAE
117.46= Total
108- Salary cap
9.46= Over cap

We are over the cap unless you renounce the $9.16M MLE and the $3.6M BAE. I suppose in a world where we give away CJ we might also renounce a $9.16M and $3.6M exception in exchange for $3.3M cap room.

I"m talking about creating space to keep our bench together (and Aminu for that matter). So the point is, if we clear CJ and Turner, we could use that MLE and the money allocated to the cap holds to resign those guys without going into the luxury tax.

[Sinobas]

No, you are wrong. If all you give away is CJ and Turner, you are still $9.3M over the cap. You need to give away more to get under the cap.

Their salaries next year will combine for 46 of the teams 126 mil in committed salary. The projected cap for next year is 109 mil. So how does 126-46= 118?

His numbers are pretty out of whack it seems. Maybe he's including the Blazers FA cap holds? Like I said though, paying attention to cap holds is pretty pointless considering its not a serious roadblock to negotiations or even signing a player to a deal as long as you know which players you're ok losing for a high priced FA.

Yes, counting a cap hold against your space is sorta silly in this context, because you either use it to retain a player you want to retain or you renounce it. Cap holds only come into play when you're talking about retaining your own players plus going out and trying to land a big free agent.

[DusterBuster]

I'm not sure where Cleveland is currently slotted to land in the lottery right now, but if they land in the 4-8 range, I wonder if they'd consider CJ for the pick? Assuming their owner is still against tanking as much as he claimed after losing LeBron, it may not be totally out of the question that he'd make that deal to try and get the Cavs back into the Eastern Conference playoff mix with a duo of CJ and Love.

[Wizenheimer]

I'm not sure where Cleveland is currently slotted to land in the lottery right now, but if they land in the 4-8 range, I wonder if they'd consider CJ for the pick? Assuming their owner is still against tanking as much as he claimed after losing LeBron, it may not be totally out of the question that he'd make that deal to try and get the Cavs back into the Eastern Conference playoff mix with a duo of CJ and Love.

Cavs are currently 3rd in the lottery hunt which means they have an equal 14% chance of #1 and 40% chance of top-3 with the other two worst teams

Cavs are really close to the tax-line right now and would be pretty close next season. So, the Blazers would have to take two of these contracts back to balance things out (first number is this year's salary):

Tristan Thompson $17,469,565 $18,539,130
Brandon Knight $14,631,250 $15,643,750
Jordan Clarkson $12,500,000 $13,437,500
John Henson $11,327,466 $10,482,396
Matthew Dellavedova $9,607,500 $9,607,500

pretty unappetizing. I left JR Smith and his current 14.7M salary off because next year is non-guaranteed and I'd be amazed if Cleveland would trade a top-5 pick AND go 10M over the tax line just to add CJ

[NYG]

With the Nurkic injury, does Portland keep Lillard/McCollum together again regardless of playoff performance?

[DusterBuster]

With the Nurkic injury, does Portland keep Lillard/McCollum together again regardless of playoff performance?

The likely scenario is that they will probably just run it back again and just see what happens next year. Sounds like the Blazers main priority this summer will be getting Lillard locked up with a supermax deal - something he's interested in as well.

As for CJ, if they do move him, I would imagine any CJ deal would likely be after a supermax for Lillard is completed. Probably the most likely scenario for the Blazers this summer though is they do the Lillard supermax, let Aminu walk, resign or find a couple cheap filler players that can help Portland weather the storm a bit and just roll it all back for next year and hope Nurk can be back by around the ASB, if even in just a limited capacity. So likely another year of "internal development".

That said, I do suspect they'll try and be aggressive in trading some of their big expiring contracts.... unfortunately there's about 40 EC's of 10+ mil floating around the league next year, so Portland won't be alone in doing that.

[Wizenheimer]

With the Nurkic injury, does Portland keep Lillard/McCollum together again regardless of playoff performance?

I think the rationale for trading CJ doesn't really change with Nurkic's injury

start with it's likely never to happen with Olshey as GM. But the reasons are there and have been for the last 3 years. And I think we were seeing how Dame and the team was performing without CJ to get plenty of hints the Blazers could do just fine without CJ. Yeah, the sample size is ridiculously small and home court skewed, but the ball movement and diversity of offense without CJ has been a mini-revelation, although rather predictable

now, if your suggestion is to dump CJ and do a mid-level tank without CJ and Nurkic...no. To start with, they couldn't tank enough to make it worthwhile in terms of a draft pick. And there's no reason to do that to Dame, his teammates, or the fans

I think DB is right and the Blazers will likely just tinker around with the back end of the rotation. They have almost no flexibility: if you count their draft pick, they'll only be about 4 million below the tax line with only 11 players. I don't even believe they'll use the full-MLE because that would hard-cap them at the apron. And they very likely won't be able to get an injury-exception for Nurkic because of CBA rules.

[HoopsFanAZ]

Does Olshey reach back to his Clipper days and grow brass ones?
Anthony Davis. CJ and Zach. And a pick. And even Evan Turner (apparently a friend of Jrue Holiday?).
Big package. Big guy to pair with the Bionic Bosnian Beast.

Other than this wishful thinking ... I need to see the 13+ game tryout, first, to suggest off season options.

[zzaj]

With the Nurkic injury, does Portland keep Lillard/McCollum together again regardless of playoff performance?

I think the rationale for trading CJ doesn't really change with Nurkic's injury

start with it's likely never to happen with Olshey as GM. But the reasons are there and have been for the last 3 years. And I think we were seeing how Dame and the team was performing without CJ to get plenty of hints the Blazers could do just fine without CJ. Yeah, the sample size is ridiculously small and home court skewed, but the ball movement and diversity of offense without CJ has been a mini-revelation, although rather predictable

now, if your suggestion is to dump CJ and do a mid-level tank without CJ and Nurkic...no. To start with, they couldn't tank enough to make it worthwhile in terms of a draft pick. And there's no reason to do that to Dame, his teammates, or the fans

I think DB is right and the Blazers will likely just tinker around with the back end of the rotation. They have almost no flexibility: if you count their draft pick, they'll only be about 4 million below the tax line with only 11 players. I don't even believe they'll use the full-MLE because that would hard-cap them at the apron. And they very likely won't be able to get an injury-exception for Nurkic because of CBA rules.

I'm actually curious if that's true or not. And if it is true, that's something that should be changed in future CBAs. If a team has to be short a player for a year because of injury, the team should be allowed an exception to add a player of the same value (or at least a portion of it).

I don't really see who that doesn't benefit--teams get to try and stay competitive and keep people coming to games, which is good for the NBA. From the players side, more players get paid out of the FA pool.

[zzaj]

Does Olshey reach back to his Clipper days and grow brass ones?
Anthony Davis. CJ and Zach. And a pick. And even Evan Turner (apparently a friend of Jrue Holiday?).
Big package. Big guy to pair with the Bionic Bosnian Beast.

Other than this wishful thinking ... I need to see the 13+ game tryout, first, to suggest off season options.

I feel like there is a better chance that Kevin Durant would want to be his own man and come to the Blazers to team up with Lillard, eventually Nurkic, and CJ...which of course would mean a MASSIVE tax payment for the Blazers. Which also means it has no chance of happening...same as trading for AD with any package that the Blazers could offer.

[Wizenheimer]

Spoiler:

With the Nurkic injury, does Portland keep Lillard/McCollum together again regardless of playoff performance?

I think the rationale for trading CJ doesn't really change with Nurkic's injury

start with it's likely never to happen with Olshey as GM. But the reasons are there and have been for the last 3 years. And I think we were seeing how Dame and the team was performing without CJ to get plenty of hints the Blazers could do just fine without CJ. Yeah, the sample size is ridiculously small and home court skewed, but the ball movement and diversity of offense without CJ has been a mini-revelation, although rather predictable

now, if your suggestion is to dump CJ and do a mid-level tank without CJ and Nurkic...no. To start with, they couldn't tank enough to make it worthwhile in terms of a draft pick. And there's no reason to do that to Dame, his teammates, or the fans

I think DB is right and the Blazers will likely just tinker around with the back end of the rotation. They have almost no flexibility: if you count their draft pick, they'll only be about 4 million below the tax line with only 11 players. I don't even believe they'll use the full-MLE because that would hard-cap them at the apron.

And they very likely won't be able to get an injury-exception for Nurkic because of CBA rules.

I'm actually curious if that's true or not. And if it is true, that's something that should be changed in future CBAs. If a team has to be short a player for a year because of injury, the team should be allowed an exception to add a player of the same value (or at least a portion of it).

what you are describing is the rule. teams can apply for the diabled player exception between July 15 and January 15. It's designed so teams can replace a player who will miss the rest of a season AND a majority of a remaining season. That last part is why the Jan 15 cutoff

Portland could apply for it in July, but a league certified doctor (or panel) would have to certify that "that the player is substantially more likely than not to be unable to play through the following June 15". Considering there was no nerve or tissue damage, it's unlikely Nurkic would qualify. Unless of course he had complications or a major setback

[NYG]

How much of a priority is getting below the luxury tax?

[Fitz303]

How much of a priority is getting below the luxury tax?

I'd have to assume that it's a high priority this next season. Worst case, I think they hover close above the tax line and wait until the deadline to drop below it, much like they had done the 2 seasons prior to this one.

[DaVoiceMaster]

If Portland can trade Leonard for a trade exception, could Portland resign Kanter, Hood and Curry using that $10 million exception and the MLE? Everyone ends up with roughly $1. Maybe you just sign them for a year and give them. Bit more the next summer when Turner expires.

[Fitz303]

If Portland can trade Leonard for a trade exception, could Portland resign Kanter, Hood and Curry using that $10 million exception and the MLE? Everyone ends up with roughly $1. Maybe you just sign them for a year and give them. Bit more the next summer when Turner expires.

You can't use TPEs to sign players. The closest you can get with that is using it in a S&T. Being that these are Blazer free agents, they'll only have the MLE and BAE as a best case scenario this offseason. None of those players will sign for the BAE. You'll likely be able to get one of them for the MLE.

Obviously my bias against Kanter truly hopes that the MLE is not used on him. My biggest hope is that Hood is able to be retained for less than the MLE, takes over as the starting SG, and McCollum is moved for someone along the lines of Aaron Gordon.

Unfortunately, I don't see much of a chance of the blazers re-signing Curry. He's playing too well at the right time for him. He'll get more than the BAE somewhere.

[DaVoiceMaster]

I'd like to find a way to bring all of the free agents back. Move Turner and Leonard at any cost (well, nearly any cost). Do you sacrifice CJ for capspace and picks?