Milwaukee vs Philadelphia: Who wins in a Playoff Series

[LloydFree]

Milwaukee didn't learn a thing from losing that playoff series last year. They doubled down on the same formula instead of making improvements. Two guys and a bunch of one dimensional, standstill shooters works well in the regular season, but not deep into the playoffs. Bad teams can't defend that. Good teams run those "shooters" off the line and make them score off the dribble, then force the "playmakers" to shoot jumpers. The Celtics did that to the '18 Sixers and the Raptors did that to the '19 Bucks. Bucks just gonna do the same thing with older, lesser players and hope it works I guess.

True but the Sixers have probably been even worse with that these last couple years. The Sixers playoff offense two years ago was running around in circles until someone chucked up an off-balance 3, and last year it was mostly 'try the fastbreak, then try Embiid (or Embiid+Redick), then just let Butler do whatever he feels like.' Plus Embiid still gets massively thrown off when he doesn't have space to pull of his moves and Harris needs to be red hot to score against locked-in defenses. Lot of work to do to get some kind of system or systems that actually preps their talent to face up against real defenses.

That's not true. The 76ers have run two totally different offenses the last two years. The 76ers were the Bucks in 17/18. Covington, Redick, Belinelli, Saric, Illyasova... A bunch of average to above average, 3 point shooters, who couldn't put the ball on the floor against tough close-outs. Last year the 76ers ditched all of that and acquired players that could score off the dribble, and run pick-n-roll. They submarined their own offense by falling into the trap of letting Butler run the offense for longer and longer periods in the 4th quarter. Butler isn't a PG or a good shooter. He's an ISO scorer, who is good against most defenders not named Kawhi Leonard.

This year, without Butler, the 76ers have guys all over the court that can shoot, put the ball on the floor against close-outs, who are unselfish, and will move the ball when necessary. Totally different from the last two rosters. You can debate whether they'll be better, but they didn't double down on the same failure. That's for sure.

[HotelVitale]

True but the Sixers have probably been even worse with that these last couple years. The Sixers playoff offense two years ago was running around in circles until someone chucked up an off-balance 3, and last year it was mostly 'try the fastbreak, then try Embiid (or Embiid+Redick), then just let Butler do whatever he feels like.' Plus Embiid still gets massively thrown off when he doesn't have space to pull of his moves and Harris needs to be red hot to score against locked-in defenses. Lot of work to do to get some kind of system or systems that actually preps their talent to face up against real defenses.

That's not true. The 76ers have run two totally different offenses the last two years. The 76ers were the Bucks in 17/18. Covington, Redick, Belinelli, Saric, Illyasova... A bunch of average to above average, 3 point shooters, who couldn't put the ball on the floor against tough close-outs. Last year the 76ers ditched all of that and acquired players that could score off the dribble, and run pick-n-roll. They submarined their own offense by falling into the trap of letting Butler run the offense for longer and longer periods in the 4th quarter. Butler isn't a PG or a good shooter. He's an ISO scorer, who is good against most defenders not named Kawhi Leonard. This year, without Butler, the 76ers have guys all over the court that can shoot, put the ball on the floor against close-outs, who are unselfish, and will move the ball when necessary. Totally different from the last two rosters. You can debate whether they'll be better, but they didn't double down on the same failure. That's for sure.

Think you just repeated what I said (in bold), with the difference that I'm maybe less optimistic Brown's going to force the team to play a real offense that will be useful against good defenses. I still think he'll run the hell out of the dribble h/o offense and Embiid isos from 12-15 ft against weak centers, even though we know those aren't sustainable against good teams. There's a chance now to do something totally different and run a regular pn'r drive/kick offense and figure out how to make their shooter/drivers work with Embiid, but I'm skeptical it'll happen (also worried about how Simmons fits into all that).

[bebopdeluxe]

Why do people think the Sixers got better? They turned a Top 10 player in the league into 33 year old Al Horford.

How much better will Brook Lopez get - huh? How about Bledsoe?

Even Giannis is entering his SEVENTH year. Over 500 NBA games played

Embiid and Simmons have less than 175 games of NBA experience EACH. You think they have another level they can reach? Huh?

SMFH

Those two - with less than 200 games of NBA experience each - are ALREADY all-stars...and they can get BETTER.

WHY DO PEOPLE KEEP IGNORING THIS?

Because Simmons hasnt improved dramatically since he was drafted, there are very real concerns about Embiid being healthy in the playoffs and Giannis has gotten better every single year

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And so because Simmons did not “improve dramatically” on his FREAKING ROY season, he is done? That’s it?

Do you know how ridiculous that sounds?

Yup - 160 games...22 years old...ZERO future improvement. Got it.

And what are these “very real concerns” about Embiid? Dude played 34 of their first 35 games...primarily because they had JACK to back him up. How do you think 1) losing 15-20 pounds (which it sounds like he may have already done); 2) having AL FREAKING HORFORD backing him up, which 3) allows the Sixers to give Embiid the “Kawhi treatment” and deliver him to the playoffs?

This ish is ridiculous. People getting all yanged up about the Lopez brothers and Wes Matthews, but saying that Simmons and Embiid can’t/won’t get better.

Only on RealGM.

[76ersForLife]

I
Butler on the other hand was easily their best offensive player in the regular season and playoffs. His loss is going to hurt.

He wasnt remotely close to being the best offensive player. In case u didnt know they have this guy named Embiid who avg damn near 30 ppg.

Against Milwaukee it was even more pronounced he avg 35 ppg against them so on what planet is Butler better than that?

[Isocleas2]

Too close to call atm, these are clearly the best two teams in the East though. I'd probably take whoever has homecourt in 7.

[Antinomy]

The 76ers no longer have a Greg Monroe sized hole at the 5 whenever Embiid sits with Horford although I'm not sure he's going to be at the same level as his Celtics peak. The worry is shooting in this lineup. The team is going to play big but 4 v 5 on offense with Simmons.

I think it's too early to say without seeing how the 76ers gell this season. Right now, I think Milwaukee gets the benefit of the doubt.

Sure they fixed their problem at the 5, but they’ve created a massive shot creation & spacing problem. While also creating a potential fit issue with Simmons style not matching with their personnel.

The Bucks didn’t get worse. In terms of scheme, they swapped out 1 shooter for 2 shooters. Brogdon would only shoot when he was wide open & teams knew he would drive with his head down anytime he put the ball on the floor. He wasn’t a playmaker. People saw his stat line & acted like they watched the Bucks all year.

[Antinomy]

I feel like Brogdon was a big part of the Buck's core. They got Wes Matthews, and replaced Mirotic with Bender...........
Philly lost Butler and Redick, but they got Josh Richardson and Horford...
It's close, but I'm currently leaning towards Philly.

Mirotic was terrible for them besides 1 game vs Boston. Bender won’t even be in the rotation.....

[LloydFree]

True but the Sixers have probably been even worse with that these last couple years. The Sixers playoff offense two years ago was running around in circles until someone chucked up an off-balance 3, and last year it was mostly 'try the fastbreak, then try Embiid (or Embiid+Redick), then just let Butler do whatever he feels like.' Plus Embiid still gets massively thrown off when he doesn't have space to pull of his moves and Harris needs to be red hot to score against locked-in defenses. Lot of work to do to get some kind of system or systems that actually preps their talent to face up against real defenses.

That's not true. The 76ers have run two totally different offenses the last two years. The 76ers were the Bucks in 17/18. Covington, Redick, Belinelli, Saric, Illyasova... A bunch of average to above average, 3 point shooters, who couldn't put the ball on the floor against tough close-outs. Last year the 76ers ditched all of that and acquired players that could score off the dribble, and run pick-n-roll. They submarined their own offense by falling into the trap of letting Butler run the offense for longer and longer periods in the 4th quarter. Butler isn't a PG or a good shooter. He's an ISO scorer, who is good against most defenders not named Kawhi Leonard. This year, without Butler, the 76ers have guys all over the court that can shoot, put the ball on the floor against close-outs, who are unselfish, and will move the ball when necessary. Totally different from the last two rosters. You can debate whether they'll be better, but they didn't double down on the same failure. That's for sure.

Think you just repeated what I said (in bold), with the difference that I'm maybe less optimistic Brown's going to force the team to play a real offense that will be useful against good defenses. I still think he'll run the hell out of the dribble h/o offense and Embiid isos from 12-15 ft against weak centers, even though we know those aren't sustainable against good teams. There's a chance now to do something totally different and run a regular pn'r drive/kick offense and figure out how to make their shooter/drivers work with Embiid, but I'm skeptical it'll happen (also worried about how Simmons fits into all that).

Being skeptical is reasonable. But I don't think there is much reason to believe there will be some massive problem with the offense. The 76ers problems in the playoffs have been more on the defensive side of the ball anyway. With Redick incapable of guarding anyone and Butler incapable of guarding Kawhi Leonard or D'Angelo Russell. The 76ers have scored both seasons, with two different types of personnel.

The 76ers had slightly above average offensive rating both seasons. I look at it as they replaced Redick, Covington and Saric with Tobias, Richardson and Horford. The players they have now are better than what had. Similar shooting, plus they can put the ball on the floor and make a shot. There is no way the offense will be worse with the current group, over those guys. Plus you don't have two defensive liabilities on the court all of the time.

[rrayy]

Philly. They lost butler but gained Horford and J-rich. Bucks went from brogdon to a washed up Wes Matthews

The Bucks won 60 games with him missing a quarter of the season and got to the ECF without him. You are massively overrating Brogdon.

[rrayy]

Bucks got weaker and the Sixers got better. add in the natural expected improvement of its two young stars and I think the Sixers just edge it. will be pretty close though.

Why do people think the Sixers got better? They turned a Top 10 player in the league into 33 year old Al Horford.

How much better will Brook Lopez get - huh? How about Bledsoe?

Even Giannis is entering his SEVENTH year. Over 500 NBA games played

Embiid and Simmons have less than 175 games of NBA experience EACH. You think they have another level they can reach? Huh?

SMFH

Those two - with less than 200 games of NBA experience each - are ALREADY all-stars...and they can get BETTER.

WHY DO PEOPLE KEEP IGNORING THIS?

Giannis is only 24 and only going to get better as he enters his physical prime. WHY DO YOU IGNORE THAT? Only Philly players can get better and not Giannis? What a joke.

[rrayy]

The Bucks didn’t get worse. In terms of scheme, they swapped out 1 shooter for 2 shooters. Brogdon would only shoot when he was wide open & teams knew he would drive with his head down anytime he put the ball on the floor. He wasn’t a playmaker. People saw his stat line & acted like they watched the Bucks all year.

Which means they also didn't see that the Bucks made the ECF while Brogdon didn't even play and also missed 1/3rd of the regular season. Brogdon was not the huge factor people are trying to make him out to be.

[RRyder823]

How much better will Brook Lopez get - huh? How about Bledsoe?

Even Giannis is entering his SEVENTH year. Over 500 NBA games played

Embiid and Simmons have less than 175 games of NBA experience EACH. You think they have another level they can reach? Huh?

SMFH

Those two - with less than 200 games of NBA experience each - are ALREADY all-stars...and they can get BETTER.

WHY DO PEOPLE KEEP IGNORING THIS?

Because Simmons hasnt improved dramatically since he was drafted, there are very real concerns about Embiid being healthy in the playoffs and Giannis has gotten better every single year

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And so because Simmons did not “improve dramatically” on his FREAKING ROY season, he is done? That’s it?

Do you know how ridiculous that sounds?

Yup - 160 games...22 years old...ZERO future improvement. Got it.

And what are these “very real concerns” about Embiid? Dude played 34 of their first 35 games...primarily because they had JACK to back him up. How do you think 1) losing 15-20 pounds (which it sounds like he may have already done); 2) having AL FREAKING HORFORD backing him up, which 3) allows the Sixers to give Embiid the “Kawhi treatment” and deliver him to the playoffs?

This ish is ridiculous. People getting all yanged up about the Lopez brothers and Wes Matthews, but saying that Simmons and Embiid can’t/won’t get better.

Only on RealGM.

Well I was being kind with Simmons. When a player doesnt really improve his first couple seasons (or since college) it's a giant red flag in regards to him ever drastically improving. Either realize that or dont. I don't care.

Embiid has health concerns. He just does. He doesnt need the Kawhi treatment. He needs the Kawhi treatment×2. If you want to stick your head in the sand about it be guest.

If you cant understand why people take these stances on them then that's on you



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[kingofthecourt67]

Think it’s too close to call without seeing how effectively Harris and Richardson efficiently able to score from the perimeter. I have been quite concerned about who takes the crunch time shots because it was a nice luxury to have Jimmy last season.

[blargh]

Milwaukee didn't learn a thing from losing that playoff series last year. They doubled down on the same formula instead of making improvements. Two guys and a bunch of one dimensional, standstill shooters works well in the regular season, but not deep into the playoffs. Bad teams can't defend that. Good teams run those "shooters" off the line and make them score off the dribble, then force the "playmakers" to shoot jumpers.

The Celtics did that to the '18 Sixers and the Raptors did that to the '19 Bucks. Bucks just gonna do the same thing with older, lesser players and hope it works I guess.

Except that the stats say that the Bucks were terrible on open shots during the series. The issue was the Bucks' didnt make shots and that made it easier for them to toss multiple bodies and wall off the paint for Giannis.

Ding Ding Ding. You are correct good sir

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Actually, the stats show that the Bucks 3pfg% stayed about the same for open/wide-open shot from regular season to playoffs: about 36% to 35%. Where the 3pfg% cratered was in contested tight shots, going from 28% in the regular season to 20% in the playoffs. Which basically reinforces the OPs statement: Bucks shooters were getting run off the line.

https://stats.nba.com/teams/shots-closest-defender-10/?Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&CloseDefDistRange=2-4%20Feet%20-%20Tight

[blargh]

Well I was being kind with Simmons. When a player doesnt really improve his first couple seasons (or since college) it's a giant red flag in regards to him ever drastically improving. Either realize that or dont. I don't care.

Embiid has health concerns. He just does. He doesnt need the Kawhi treatment. He needs the Kawhi treatment×2. If you want to stick your head in the sand about it be guest.

If you cant understand why people take these stances on them then that's on you

Simmons went from an indifferent defender at LSU to a league top15-level defender. Not all improvement is on the offensive side.

Embiid definitely has health concerns, but that’s why the Horford addition to manage is load could be very impactful.

[Catchall]

Philly has size, but their shooting isn't great. They didn't just lose Butler, they also lost Redick, who was an important piece of their offense. I don't really like the idea of Horford guarding modern 4s, and I don't see much scoring off their bench.

I think the difference is Giannis and his ability to break the paint. I went with the Bucks.

[freethedevil]

Philly are the best team in the league. bucks can contend though.

[PD28]

I'd take Sixers with Butler over Bucks, but right now I'm going Bucks in 6 or 7.

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[freethedevil]

Philly has size, but their shooting isn't great. They didn't just lose Butler, they also lost Redick, who was an important piece of their offense. I don't really like the idea of Horford guarding modern 4s, and I don't see much scoring off their bench.

I think the difference is Giannis and his ability to break the paint. I went with the Bucks.

They replaced the two with a better playmaker in hoford, good shooting in both hordard and richardson, and elite interior d(hoford) with elite permiter d(richarson).

I think they've gotten better and xonsidering that team was nearly good enough to win a chip with embid's health issues, This team prolly have the best shot at the title next year.

[freethedevil]

Bucks have more shooting, better defensively, better coaching, best player. Bucks bad match up for Philly, they can't check Giannis. Embiid doens't have stamina for 7 game series against us.

Philly have much better playmaking and their defense has significantly improved. Embid+Hoford+Simmons+Richardson can likely replicate what Gasol+Siakim+Kawhi were able to do against giannis. Your shooting might be better, but they may have better interior scoring with embid and simmons.


You have an edge with depth, but they clearly have the better lineup. I also think brown> bud in the playoffs is worth questioning. Brown did better against toronto than bud did.