Prospect Thread: Deni Avdija

[Soul Rebel]

It's hard to grasp selecting him at 3, but Mitch and his people spent a great deal of time overseas for the past year.

I've seen Ingles comps, as well as a more athletic Diaw. It just seems so hard at 3 to take a guy that could just as much be the next Hezonja. Deni's FT and 3-pt % are downright awful and he seems like a Jack of all Trades/Master of None kind of wing. Though at 19, he still has just as much room to improve as any of the other top prospects with major question marks.

Seem like any of the top guys are all gambles and dependent on team/fit/style of play.

[wilson115]

Deni's FT and 3-pt % are downright awful and he seems like a Jack of all Trades/Master of None kind of wing. Though at 19, he still has just as much room to improve as any of the other top prospects with major question marks.

Still divided about this kid, and for much the same reasons. What is his role exactly? Not enough to say he can pass/handle or shoot threes or defend, what is his "impact" skill exactly? Are we drafting him as a primary ballhandler? Does he have the athleticism and physical profile to deliver the "D" part of 3-and-D? Joe Ingles is a useful player, but even a coach like Snyder has trouble giving him consistent minutes next to a guy who really can get his own shot and so needs the ball like Mitchell.

https://fansided.com/2020/07/29/nylon-calculus-spotting-nba-market-inefficiency/

[Vanderbilt_Grad]

Shooting 3s and passing translate directly into those Floor Spacer and Creator roles you quoted. I just don't know if he can do it in the NBA or not.

Batum, Joe Ingles, and such are interesting guys to talk about in regards to Deni. In his best case he strikes me as the 2nd or 3rd best player on a good team.

[MasterIchiro]

Shooting 3s and passing translate directly into those Floor Spacer and Creator roles you quoted. I just don't know if he can do it in the NBA or not.

Batum, Joe Ingles, and such are interesting guys to talk about in regards to Deni. In his best case he strikes me as the 2nd or 3rd best player on a good team.

Is there a best player on a good team candidate in this draft? It's not clear at all. So if Deni is the second option on a good team or the 1st option on a not so great team like the Gordon Hayward Jazz, maybe that is a steal. It's possible we're setting the bar too high if we want a first option on a good team from this particular draft, even at 3. I'm at peace with the limitations of this draft and I'd be thrilled to find a #2 option. We have next draft plus trades.

[HornetJail]

Shooting 3s and passing translate directly into those Floor Spacer and Creator roles you quoted. I just don't know if he can do it in the NBA or not.

Batum, Joe Ingles, and such are interesting guys to talk about in regards to Deni. In his best case he strikes me as the 2nd or 3rd best player on a good team.

That sounds like a Charlotte pick then

that isn't a good thing

[BigSlam]

It's possible we're setting the bar too high if we want a first option on a good team from this particular draft, even at 3. I'm at peace with the limitations of this draft and I'd be thrilled to find a #2 option.

I couldn’t agree with this more.

In this draft if we can land someone who is a contributor to overall team success for the next 7+ years I’ll be stoked.

Doesn’t have to be “the” guy, just “a” guy who grows well with the team and is a part of our build in meaningful and positive way.

If that guy this year is Deni and he turns out to be a solid, all around fun guy and good > great player who is easy to root for and like then that’s a plus result for me.

I just don’t want another Kaminsky or Monk type player who doesn’t make it past their rookie contract with us.


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[yosemiteben]

I missed that post by MI but I completely agree with that sentiment as well.

[Hornet Mania]

Honestly with a draft this shaky I could live with just coming up with a guy as solid as PJ was last year. I could be totally off but my gut tells me a solid half of the lotto will be Stanley Johnsons and Mario Hezonjas. Our team isn't just lacking a star, it's also lacking enough above-average players.

[SWedd523]

I missed that post by MI but I completely agree with that sentiment as well.

As long as they don't go into the draft specifically looking for someone who projects as a "solid contributor for 7 seasons".

I'm still all for picking whomever appears to have the greatest overall talent and future impact, even if that is accompanied by that nebulous "risk".

[MasterIchiro]

I missed that post by MI but I completely agree with that sentiment as well.

As long as they don't go into the draft specifically looking for someone who projects as a "solid contributor for 7 seasons".

I'm still all for picking whomever appears to have the greatest overall talent and future impact, even if that is accompanied by that nebulous "risk".

+1 for "nebulous". That is a nice word.

[MasterIchiro]

I've settled on Avdija as my top preference at pick 3. Outside of Edwards falling (never say never), I'm all aboard the Avdija train. The man has chutzpah!

Edwards (pipe dream)
Avdija 1a
Toppin 1b

If Edwards goes #1 and Warriors take Avdija #2, I'm for trading Ball to the highest bidder, Bulls, Pistons, Knicks, Suns etc.

Every top tier player has areas of serious concern and that's where makeup comes into scouting. If you watch Avdija interviews and read reports about his approach, he's a total gym rat and basketball addict. His passion is off the charts. Those are the players most likely to develop their strengths and overcome flaws, setbacks, slumps, adaptation to opposing schemes, learning and cultivating team concepts etc.

Avdija. Final answer.

He's going to make a whole team better so what more could you want from a high lotto pick?

[BigSlam]

Every top tier player has areas of serious concern and that's where makeup comes into scouting. If you watch Avdija interviews and read reports about his approach, he's a total gym rat and basketball addict. His passion is off the charts. Those are the players most likely to develop their strengths and overcome flaws, setbacks, slumps, adaptation to opposing schemes, learning and cultivating team concepts etc.

Sounds a lot like the last guy we selected #3 overall.....who didn’t develop his strengths and overcome flaws, setbacks, slumps, adaptation to opposing schemes, learning and cultivating team concepts etc.....and that didn’t work out so well.


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[MasterIchiro]

Every top tier player has areas of serious concern and that's where makeup comes into scouting. If you watch Avdija interviews and read reports about his approach, he's a total gym rat and basketball addict. His passion is off the charts. Those are the players most likely to develop their strengths and overcome flaws, setbacks, slumps, adaptation to opposing schemes, learning and cultivating team concepts etc.

Sounds a lot like the last guy we selected #3 overall.....who didn’t develop his strengths and overcome flaws, setbacks, slumps, adaptation to opposing schemes, learning and cultivating team concepts etc.....and that didn’t work out so well.


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Beal went 3. MKG was a pipe dream on one side of the ball.

[BigSlam]

Every top tier player has areas of serious concern and that's where makeup comes into scouting. If you watch Avdija interviews and read reports about his approach, he's a total gym rat and basketball addict. His passion is off the charts. Those are the players most likely to develop their strengths and overcome flaws, setbacks, slumps, adaptation to opposing schemes, learning and cultivating team concepts etc.

Sounds a lot like the last guy we selected #3 overall.....who didn’t develop his strengths and overcome flaws, setbacks, slumps, adaptation to opposing schemes, learning and cultivating team concepts etc.....and that didn’t work out so well.


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Beal went 3. MKG was a pipe dream on one side of the ball.

I wasn’t referencing Beal or Kidd-Gilchrist.


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[Hornet Mania]

Every top tier player has areas of serious concern and that's where makeup comes into scouting. If you watch Avdija interviews and read reports about his approach, he's a total gym rat and basketball addict. His passion is off the charts. Those are the players most likely to develop their strengths and overcome flaws, setbacks, slumps, adaptation to opposing schemes, learning and cultivating team concepts etc.

Sounds a lot like the last guy we selected #3 overall.....who didn’t develop his strengths and overcome flaws, setbacks, slumps, adaptation to opposing schemes, learning and cultivating team concepts etc.....and that didn’t work out so well.


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I'm not an expert on Avdija by any means but from what little I've seen of him his defense and passing seems worlds better than Ammo. I was super against the Morrison pick, I have some hope for Avdija just because it looks like he can do more than score.

[yosemiteben]

I really don't think I can get on board with drafting a wing that shot sub 60% on free throws on fairly large volume.

[bravor]

Agents doing their fine to hide the weaknesses of their clients. Not specific to Avdija, the same could be said for Maledon (for France) and many others.
But no, defensively he is not reliable. He is not Spanoulis bad (not playing of players's position obviously) but if you get Avdija, you get a point foward with some real clutch skillset. He's not gonna turn into a two way player, no matter how you try.

He is still a nice player, most likely a good teammate. But i surely hope for something better for the Hornets. For me his upside is limited (basically a better Ingles?). If Siskauskas was still playing i would pick the lith' over him any day, no matter how tragic/comical this league has became when it concerns the rules of the game and defense.

[MasterIchiro]

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I'm not totally sold on Deni at this point, but he is interesting.

I understand using FT% as a predictor of shooting but not in isolation of other stats like actual shooting and three point shooting. The sample that demands the most weight is his league shooting. I don't find his FT% particular useful as a predictor given his floor numbers.

66.5 FG % in Israel Premier league 2019-2020
35.3 3PT% in Israel Premier league 2019-2020

He won MVP because of his ability to shoot (and elevate play of teammates).

You can check the sample sizes and find confidence or fixate on his FT%. Like I said, it's something he can overcome, especially if we look at his shooting from the floor.

https://basketball.eurobasket.com/team/Israel/Maccabi-Fox-Tel-Aviv/159?Page=3

[DY_nasty]

....how did he elevate the play of his teammates?

that team has experience at every position. if anything they elevated him

some of those arguments don't work the same with international hoops

[yosemiteben]

Poor FT shooting is objectively a major red flag. What's the last guy you know that shot sub 60% from FT that turned into even an average NBA shooter?

I look at those stats and, moreso than the terrible FT%, the first thing that pops out to me is that he scored 4 ppg in 14 mpg in 26 Euroleague games. He averaged right at 1 FGM per game. He shot 27% from three.

His Israeli league shooting is better, but far from impressive, and from what I've read that is a very, very not impressive league. So basically he was extremely underwhelming in the better league he played in (Euroleague), was better in the crappy league he played in (Israeli), but in both he shot below 60% FT.

That does not convince me that he's worth a top 3 pick or that he projects favorably to be a reliable NBA scorer.