Amen & Ausar Thompson - Potential 2022 NBA Draft Guys

[Hal14]

So Boozer has played two OTE elite teams. Much better numbers then the Thompsons.

Then their is another 15 year old Quaintance that is the next best prospect in OTE. He was a #30 prospect in highschool. The Thompsons numbers are better then his but their not top 5 in the NBA draft at 5 years older better numbers.

https://deanondraft.com/2023/02/02/how-good-are-the-thompson-twins/

instant loss of credibility by posting a Dean on draft link. That guy is a troll.

[The Moose]

Read on Twitter

?t=VYtUUKP8a59BX9_uBokrGQ&s=19

The Thompson Twins rim fg% drops over 20% from non half-court to half-court attempts?

Ausar is supposedly a generational athlete while shooting 26% on halfcourt layups and has 5 dunks in the halfcourt for the entire season

Season is only like halfway over. Saying "entire season" makes it seem like you're reaching.

And I'm not sure if you've watched any OTE games but the spacing is horrible. Teams pack it into the paint, keeping them out of the paint and when they do get to there's 2 (if not 3) defenders there.

And it's also not fair to the twins to filter out transition plays. That's a big selling point for them as prospects. They're so fast, so explosive and athletic and use their instincts so well for leaking out and passing it ahead on the break, that they're able to get lots of easy buckets in transition.

Why are we penalizing them for being really good at something?

Is transition not a part of NBA basketball? Last time I checked, it was.

Running data and filtering out transition baskets for the twins is like filtering out 3 pointers for Brandon Miller or filtering out blocks for Wemby.

I said “has 5 dunks for the whole season” the ‘has’ implies present tense. as in an ongoing season.
It isn’t a reach at all, for one everybody here is aware the season isn’t over , for two, even if it’s halfway through the season , that is a paltry amount for a “generational athlete” which is a major selling point for him as a top 5 prospect.

If he’s a generational athlete , it isn’t helping him
1) generate easy attempts at the rim
2) finish efficiently at the rim
When I think of a generational athlete , I think of someone like Duke Zion , who was basically unstoppable at the rim

I’m not penalizing them for being great in transition, they are undoubtedly good transition players, it just doesn’t make someone a top 5 prospect. Hamidou Diallo is a guy I watch a lot, he’s outstanding in transition and is probably a top 5-10 overall athlete in the league, but he’s more or less a useless player in the half court and it makes it really difficult for him to consistently have an impact on the game.

[buzzkilloton]

So Boozer has played two OTE elite teams. Much better numbers then the Thompsons.

Then their is another 15 year old Quaintance that is the next best prospect in OTE. He was a #30 prospect in highschool. The Thompsons numbers are better then his but their not top 5 in the NBA draft at 5 years older better numbers.

https://deanondraft.com/2023/02/02/how-good-are-the-thompson-twins/

instant loss of credibility by posting a Dean on draft link. That guy is a troll.

Stats in that article are the only thing credible to look at with the Thompsons. Not impressive at all compared to more then one 15 year old now. Gotta be in denial at this point to not be concerned.

[Hal14]

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[CptCrunch]

Can someone help me understand why the Thompsons weren't in the last draft?

They were 19 by 12/31/2022, were one year removed from high school (was playing in OTE).

By all accounts, they should be eligible for early entry into the draft with the last class.

[clyde21]

Can someone help me understand why the Thompsons weren't in the last draft?

They were 19 by 12/31/2022, were one year removed from high school (was playing in OTE).

By all accounts, they should be eligible for early entry into the draft with the last class.

because they haven't graduated HS at that point yet, they were still taking HS courses

[916fan]

So 15year old Cam Boozer played this same team that the Thompsons struggled against 3 months ago. He put up 28 and 20 vs them and dominated them. Now I'm not certain its all the same guys on the team or whatever but its OTE and the same team name.

I get Boozer is a phenom. Thing is the Thompsons are going to be 20 on draft night. If Amen is a 3 pick in this years draft he should be dominating all the same as a 15 year old.

Watch on YouTube

Here's my extremely hot take, Cam Boozer would be able to play rotational NBA minutes right now as a 15-year-old. He's THAT good. But your point still stands.

[916fan]

there is no way im takin basketball advice from a he/him

nah this comment is completely unnecessary and uncalled for. i hope you realize how ignorant your comment is and learn from this... this whole thread is full of cringe.

[peZt]

So they are already 20 years old, playing against HS kids, barely dominating and are considered top 5 talents??

If the NBA draft has shown anything it's that youth performance against High School competition and FIBA tournaments mean NOTHING. You can be the most dominant youth performer ever, doesn't mean you'll be a good pro. Case in point all the Euro busts of the last 10 years. What do all the international Busts of the 10 years have in common? They all dominated youth competition but never proved anything against pro's. They were solely drafted based on their performance against 16 year olds. Dragan Bender, Hezonja, Ntilikina, Exum, Papagiannis, Hayes, Avdija and so on.
DO NOT Waste a top 10 pick on a player who dominates youth competition but hasn't proven anything at the College/Pro level yet. And the twins aren't even dominating.

[SeattleJazzFan]

So they are already 20 years old, playing against HS kids, barely dominating and are considered top 5 talents??

If the NBA draft has shown anything it's that youth performance against High School competition and FIBA tournaments mean NOTHING. You can be the most dominant youth performer ever, doesn't mean you'll be a good pro. Case in point all the Euro busts of the last 10 years. What do all the international Busts of the 10 years have in common? They all dominated youth competition but never proved anything against pro's. They were solely drafted based on their performance against 16 year olds. Dragan Bender, Hezonja, Ntilikina, Exum, Papagiannis, Hayes, Avdija and so on.
DO NOT Waste a top 10 pick on a player who dominates youth competition but hasn't proven anything at the College/Pro level yet. And the twins aren't even dominating.

not really even "barely" dominating. rather i'd say they are playing pretty well.

[big-shot-ROB]

I haven't watched anything outside of highlights from them. Even those are leaving me quite cold. I just don't see it.

[clyde21]

there is no way im takin basketball advice from a he/him

nah this comment is completely unnecessary and uncalled for. i hope you realize how ignorant your comment is and learn from this... this whole thread is full of cringe.

[SeattleJazzFan]

there is no way im takin basketball advice from a he/him

nah this comment is completely unnecessary and uncalled for. i hope you realize how ignorant your comment is and learn from this... this whole thread is full of cringe.

out of curiosity, what makes this thread full of cringe?

also, sticks and stones - you and rest of the world would do well to take to heart a phrase i learned when i was 5 and stop getting so offended for every reason under the sun.

[peZt]

there is no way im takin basketball advice from a he/him

nah this comment is completely unnecessary and uncalled for. i hope you realize how ignorant your comment is and learn from this... this whole thread is full of cringe.

out of curiosity, what makes this thread full of cringe?

also, sticks and stones - you and rest of the world would do well to take to heart a phrase i learned when i was 5 and stop getting so offended for every reason under the sun.

Things like sharing the LinkedIn page of a Twitter dude for example cause you don't agree with their opinion. It's all kinds of embarassing stuff here, not really about the Twins but about Twitter Scouts that people disagree with.

-------

Back to topic. It's not just Europeans that bust all the time when they are drafted solely based on their performance against 17 year olds before proving themselves with the pros. The Thompson Twins are essentially playing HS Ball.

Let's take a look at how reliable High School rankings are.
http://www.espn.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/playerrankings/_/class/2014/order/true
This was regarded as a strong class at the time. If you had drafted based on the High School rankings, you would've had a 80% chance to draft a bust in the Top 10.

http://www.espn.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/playerrankings/_/class/2019/order/true

90% bust chance

Even in one of the best High School classes of the decade, you had a higher chance of drafting a bust than not if you had drafted according to the High School rankings
http://www.espn.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/playerrankings/_/class/2020/order/true


Teams and GM's will keep on making the same mistakes cause of fear of missing out on a gem, but drafting out of High School / Fiba Tournaments without any Pro or College experience is the biggest guarantee of drafting a bust. Looking back at the last 10 High School Rankings, basically the average bust ratio if their ranking would've been their draft position is like 70%. You have a 70% risk of drafting a bust if you go by High School rankings. And the mock position of the Twins is essentially a High School ranking.

Unless you have a clear, can't miss prospect like Kobe, KG or LeBron or whatever where it's obvious regardless of the competition that it's a Top Tier prospect, keep your fingers off a guy who comes straight out of HS. Especially HS prospects who don't even look that good in HS. And especially if they are already 20 years old and playing HS.

[clyde21]

Back to topic. It's not just Europeans that bust all the time when they are drafted solely based on their performance against 17 year olds before proving themselves with the pros. The Thompson Twins are essentially playing HS Ball.

why do u guys keep making a big deal about this? LinkedInfo is public info, and the entire point behind CptCrunch doing it was to show that the guy that the other poster was using in his appeal to authority argument doesn't have anymore qualifications than any of us do on this board.

it's not like the guy wanted to be private and Cpt doxed him. he's making himself a public figure.

[Braggins]

Back to topic. It's not just Europeans that bust all the time when they are drafted solely based on their performance against 17 year olds before proving themselves with the pros. The Thompson Twins are essentially playing HS Ball.

why do u guys keep making a big deal about this? LinkedInfo is public info, and the entire point behind CptCrunch doing it was to show that the guy that the other poster was using in his appeal to authority argument doesn't have anymore qualifications than any of us do on this board.

it's not like the guy wanted to be private and Cpt doxed him. he's making himself a public figure.

Those people having a meltdown over someone looking up the public credentials of a person who was being presented as an authoritative source in a discussion was one of the funnier things Ive seen on here recently.

[CptCrunch]

nah this comment is completely unnecessary and uncalled for. i hope you realize how ignorant your comment is and learn from this... this whole thread is full of cringe.

out of curiosity, what makes this thread full of cringe?

also, sticks and stones - you and rest of the world would do well to take to heart a phrase i learned when i was 5 and stop getting so offended for every reason under the sun.

Things like sharing the LinkedIn page of a Twitter dude for example cause you don't agree with their opinion. It's all kinds of embarassing stuff here, not really about the Twins but about Twitter Scouts that people disagree with.

-------

Back to topic. It's not just Europeans that bust all the time when they are drafted solely based on their performance against 17 year olds before proving themselves with the pros. The Thompson Twins are essentially playing HS Ball.

Let's take a look at how reliable High School rankings are.
http://www.espn.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/playerrankings/_/class/2014/order/true
This was regarded as a strong class at the time. If you had drafted based on the High School rankings, you would've had a 80% chance to draft a bust in the Top 10.

http://www.espn.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/playerrankings/_/class/2019/order/true

90% bust chance

Even in one of the best High School classes of the decade, you had a higher chance of drafting a bust than not if you had drafted according to the High School rankings
http://www.espn.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/playerrankings/_/class/2020/order/true


Teams and GM's will keep on making the same mistakes cause of fear of missing out on a gem, but drafting out of High School / Fiba Tournaments without any Pro or College experience is the biggest guarantee of drafting a bust. Looking back at the last 10 High School Rankings, basically the average bust ratio if their ranking would've been their draft position is like 70%. You have a 70% risk of drafting a bust if you go by High School rankings. And the mock position of the Twins is essentially a High School ranking.

Unless you have a clear, can't miss prospect like Kobe, KG or LeBron or whatever where it's obvious regardless of the competition that it's a Top Tier prospect, keep your fingers off a guy who comes straight out of HS. Especially HS prospects who don't even look that good in HS. And especially if they are already 20 years old and playing HS.

This is totally the wrong line of thinking. You cannot evaluate whether the using ESPN ranking verbatim as draft order produces 80 or 90% bust. You have to think that ESPN/247/Rivals has filtered out the tens of thousands of crap ballers in high school and compiled a list of the best ones (with the top 30 usually labeled as '5 star prospect'.

And in fact this process works so well in many years, when there is a clear best player, these ranking services manages to identify that player. In this frame of reference, high school ranking is an incredible predictor of NBA sucess given that lowly ranked players almost never make to the league and even if they do rarely become stars.

Now you might be foolish enough to ask, oh CptCrunch, what about Damian Lillard, Dwyane Wade, Stephen Curry and all those 3 star high school kids who became stars in the league? I would now ask you to compile the ratio of stardom between 5 star and 3 star players. If you were analytically sophisticated, I would suggest using ordinal logistic regression (or any ordinal classifier) to identify the effect of high school rank. The answer would become clear afterwards.

[Hal14]

Back to topic. It's not just Europeans that bust all the time when they are drafted solely based on their performance against 17 year olds before proving themselves with the pros. The Thompson Twins are essentially playing HS Ball.

why do u guys keep making a big deal about this? LinkedInfo is public info, and the entire point behind CptCrunch doing it was to show that the guy that the other poster was using in his appeal to authority argument doesn't have anymore qualifications than any of us do on this board.

it's not like the guy wanted to be private and Cpt doxed him. he's making himself a public figure.

Who gives a sh&t about anyone's qualifications? There's plenty of amateur draft analysts/scouts out there who have put out content that is 10x better than some of the stuff that get put out by mainstream media.

Like I said before, if your content is good. If you make valid points that shows that you know your stuff, you did your research, you speak intelligently, you back up your points with data, you break down the prospects using actual game film, then I could care less what your qualifications are.

[NO-KG-AI]

out of curiosity, what makes this thread full of cringe?

also, sticks and stones - you and rest of the world would do well to take to heart a phrase i learned when i was 5 and stop getting so offended for every reason under the sun.

Things like sharing the LinkedIn page of a Twitter dude for example cause you don't agree with their opinion. It's all kinds of embarassing stuff here, not really about the Twins but about Twitter Scouts that people disagree with.

-------

Back to topic. It's not just Europeans that bust all the time when they are drafted solely based on their performance against 17 year olds before proving themselves with the pros. The Thompson Twins are essentially playing HS Ball.

Let's take a look at how reliable High School rankings are.
http://www.espn.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/playerrankings/_/class/2014/order/true
This was regarded as a strong class at the time. If you had drafted based on the High School rankings, you would've had a 80% chance to draft a bust in the Top 10.

http://www.espn.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/playerrankings/_/class/2019/order/true

90% bust chance

Even in one of the best High School classes of the decade, you had a higher chance of drafting a bust than not if you had drafted according to the High School rankings
http://www.espn.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/playerrankings/_/class/2020/order/true


Teams and GM's will keep on making the same mistakes cause of fear of missing out on a gem, but drafting out of High School / Fiba Tournaments without any Pro or College experience is the biggest guarantee of drafting a bust. Looking back at the last 10 High School Rankings, basically the average bust ratio if their ranking would've been their draft position is like 70%. You have a 70% risk of drafting a bust if you go by High School rankings. And the mock position of the Twins is essentially a High School ranking.

Unless you have a clear, can't miss prospect like Kobe, KG or LeBron or whatever where it's obvious regardless of the competition that it's a Top Tier prospect, keep your fingers off a guy who comes straight out of HS. Especially HS prospects who don't even look that good in HS. And especially if they are already 20 years old and playing HS.

This is totally the wrong line of thinking. You cannot evaluate whether the using ESPN ranking verbatim as draft order produces 80 or 90% bust. You have to think that ESPN/247/Rivals has filtered out the tens of thousands of crap ballers in high school and compiled a list of the best ones (with the top 30 usually labeled as '5 star prospect'.

And in fact this process works so well in many years, when there is a clear best player, these ranking services manages to identify that player. In this frame of reference, high school ranking is an incredible predictor of NBA sucess given that lowly ranked players almost never make to the league and even if they do rarely become stars.

Now you might be foolish enough to ask, oh CptCrunch, what about Damian Lillard, Dwyane Wade, Stephen Curry and all those 3 star high school kids who became stars in the league? I would now ask you to compile the ratio of stardom between 5 star and 3 star players. If you were analytically sophisticated, I would suggest using ordinal logistic regression (or any ordinal classifier) to identify the effect of high school rank. The answer would become clear afterwards.

Without these ranking services, most people wouldn't even know where to start with beginning to rank or even find out who is good enough to start watching videos of.