-Sammy- wrote:dhsilv2 wrote:-Sammy- wrote:
Miller only doubles+ Gervin's VORP if you leave out the latter's ABA years (as you noted), but that's moot for me, because I'm not particularly swayed by cumulative metrics such as VORP and win shares; Miller played more games, but his stats, averages, and honors are still dwarfed by Gervin's.
I'd bet that Miller's higher ranking is largely about a handful of memorable playoff games and his higher-profile optics.
People rank players differently. If we're discussing NBA only, I have Million unquestionably over Gervin because he was a high impact player for FAR longer. His career was simply massively more valuable than Gervins. The problem with accolades is that Miller was criminally underrated when he played.
As for who was better at their best? Again...it's not clear that it was Gervin.
Peak VORP 5.8 vs 4.9
Peak WS 12.5 vs 12.0
Both favor Miller as well.
Team success which is always a difficult thing to look at, but Miller made 6 conference finals to Gervin's 2. Miller's playoff stats were consistently better than his regular season stats conversely Gervin's were pretty much flat though he had a few really epic runs.
Gervin was your more traditional ball dominate scorer while Miller was the often undervalued off ball master before Curry. I don't have any issue with choosing either player as the better one, but don't say there isn't a case for Miller over Gervin. There isn't just a case, it's a very strong one. You don't have to agree, but I can't imagine someone can't look at the stats and their success and not realize that Miller was much better than his accolades (the man wasn't on an allstar team while BJ Armstrong made it for crying out loud).
No, I can't say there's no case; it looks like it comes down to which metrics one finds more relevant.
As for VORP, I acknowledge that the numbers on the high end favor Miller,
but taking each players total VORP and dividing it by games played, Gervin's is slightly higher. As for win shares, it's a somewhat dubious stat and my understanding is that almost nobody involved in basketball analytics gives it much regard anymore.
As to team success, as you acknowledged, it's difficult to speak on, but it's not overly-significant to me when the issue is individual player evaluation. And while it's true that Miller's playoff numbers increase more than Gervin's do,
Gervin's numbers still totally outclass Miller's. You may be right that Miller was underrated when he played, but I can't speak to the what-ifs; the fact is that Gervin's resume'
does trump Miller's, regardless whether any of us thinks it
should.I think there's also a tendency toward era recency bias in championing Miller as underrated; it's certainly true that he would do FAR better in this era of basketball than the one he played in, but what does tat tell us? Who's to say
this is the era all other eras should be measured against just because it's the most recent one?
If you take their VORP/games played it's like .037 for Gervin vs .047 (rounding down) for Miller. Career BPM is roughly 3.5 vs 2.5 favoring Miller and this doesn't change if we do or don't count ABA games.
As for playoff numbers...they don't outclass miller's. Just to be lazy including ABA. Playoff box score based stats.
Gervin's PER was 21.2, BPM 3.4, and WS/48 was .146
Miller PER 19.5, BPM 5.0, and WS/48 .180
Only PER which favors volume players, comes out with Gerving on top. The gap is however larger on BPM and WS/48. You can make a case if you want that we should favor PER because volume scorers are hard to find or something, but you can't claim there is a clear "out class" measure here.
As we are talking different pace and different eras, lets take per 100 playoff stats and again lazy so lets leave ABA in.
Gervin 33.5 PTS 8.5 TRB 3.6 AST ORtg 113
Miller 30.5 PTS 4.3 TRB 3.7 AST ORtg 119
A nice advantage in terms of rebounding but otherwise I see no outclassing here. The ORtg shows how much more efficient Miller was relative to era in his scoring/ball usage. I left out blanks and steals and turnovers but Gervin has a boost on blocks with a bit more turnovers. I don't think I'm skewing anything with this take.
And again this includes Miller playing until he was 39 years old. Gervin retired at 33.
If we adjust and take 24-32 age years on the per 100's we don't move the points much Gervin up to 33.7. Rebounds drop for Gervin as he rebounded MUCH more in his ABA days, so they drop to 7.2 vs 8.5. Meanwhile Miller's assists go up to 4.8 vs 3.9 for Gerin. We also end up with a bit of a gap in turnovers 3.9 for Gervin vs 3.0 for Miller. Also ORtg goes to 124 vs 111 widening that gap pretty massively.
So per 100 in the playoffs in their "prime" years we have something along the lines of this.
Gervin scored 3 points per 100 more while doing so with almost 1 less assist, almost 1 more turnover, and on good but still much lower efficiency.
I think the box metrics, leaving out rebounds and blocks for a second, show miller as the clear better offensive player. And per 100 is nice here because both played about 37 minutes a game for their career in the playoffs so there's no weird bench role or something skewing this.
Miller was simply MUCH better in his era than the media gave him credit for. Playing for the pacers in an era where we used dial up internet (if you even had it as I doubt you did at the start of his career) and where we were lucky to see a pacers highlight before the second half of sports center outside of the playoffs greatly hurt Miller. If you rank players on resume and not how good they were. You'd clearly take Gervin. If you rank players on stats however, you would take Miller. He has better stats.