Post Mortem #27 - Minnesota Timberwolves

[Black Jack]

You need two star offensive players to win a title generally. And the Timberwolves have one star player.

Look at the last few title winners:
Boston - Tatum, Brown
Nuggets - Jokic, Murray
Warriors - Curry, Klay
Bucks - Giannis, Jrue
Lakers - LeBron, Davis
Raptoers - Kawhi, Siakam

Even title losers like last years Mavs have two star offensive players.

Not sure why Minny thinks Ant plus role players can ever win a title? Even Jordan needed a Pippen.

That's a very loose definition of ‘offensive star’ if you count Jrue, post-injury Klay and 2019 Siakam. At that point you might as well include Randle.

Middleton is probably the #2 guy on the Bucks title actually - 24 ppg in the 2021 finals.

And Wiggins and Klay both put up 17-18 ppg in 2022.

And Giannis, Curry and Kawhi were ATG's playing at or near their peak. Ant isn't at the level those guys were at during those runs.

I mean, who else can create their own shot on the Wolves? They don't have anyone that's even a shaky #2 offensive player on a title winner like a 21 Middleton or a 22 Klay or Wiggins. Bottom line.

Randle looked good to start this playoffs but it seems clear now that he's not that guy.

[The-Power]

You need two star offensive players to win a title generally. And the Timberwolves have one star player.

Look at the last few title winners:
Boston - Tatum, Brown
Nuggets - Jokic, Murray
Warriors - Curry, Klay
Bucks - Giannis, Jrue
Lakers - LeBron, Davis
Raptoers - Kawhi, Siakam

Even title losers like last years Mavs have two star offensive players.

Not sure why Minny thinks Ant plus role players can ever win a title? Even Jordan needed a Pippen.

That's a very loose definition of ‘offensive star’ if you count Jrue, post-injury Klay and 2019 Siakam. At that point you might as well include Randle.

Middleton is probably the #2 guy on the Bucks title actually - 24 ppg in the 2021 finals.

And Wiggins and Klay both put up 17-18 ppg in 2022.

And Giannis, Curry and Kawhi were ATG's playing at or near their peak. Ant isn't at the level those guys were at during those runs.

I mean, who else can create their own shot on the Wolves? They don't have anyone that's even a shaky #2 offensive player on a title winner like a 21 Middleton or a 22 Klay or Wiggins. Bottom line.

Randle looked good to start this playoffs but it seems clear now that he's not that guy.

Well, I just reacted to you calling these secondary guys ‘star offensive players’ because I don't see them as such at all. That in and of itself doesn't say anything about how they compare to the second best offensive option of the Timberwolves, or how the rest of the teams compare.

I agree with you that Randle is ‘not that guy’ but neither were 2022 Klay or Wiggins, and the others I have mentioned, if one looks at it objectively. I mean, if you include Wiggins of all players (awesome as he was for us) then we're actually already pretty much in Jaden McDaniels territory.

I also agree with you that Edwards is not a Giannis, Curry or Kawhi level player. But that's a different conversation to have because I simply challenged your claim that a team needs ‘two star offensive players to win a title’ and the subsequent names you listed which to me felt at odds with the definition of offensive stars.

[Slim Tubby]

Solid season. Got a bit lucky in the first round, but they won 49 games, did way better after the trade than expected and were 3 wins away from the Finals. Couldn't defend the Thunder and OKC got into Ant pretty badly on defense, which took his scoring game down a peg.

That's a pretty good year for the TWolves, really.

What was lucky in the first round? That they drew the Lakers? Seemed like they were clearly the better team.

That they drew the Lakers and survived a fairly mediocre performance from Ant in the doing, yes.

This is madness. In case you missed the Memo, the Wolves blew the doors off of the Lakers and the greatest "Big 3" in NBA history.

Sent from my N152DL using RealGM mobile app

[tsherkin]

This is madness. In case you missed the Memo, the Wolves blew the doors off of the Lakers and the greatest "Big 3" in NBA history.

They handled their business against LA. They were lucky that LA was so depleted, and they were lucky they had injured Luka instead of semi-healthy AD in the frontcourt. And that Reaves sucked. That was the point, that they were lucky because they didn't face a better team.

[Black Jack]

That's a very loose definition of ‘offensive star’ if you count Jrue, post-injury Klay and 2019 Siakam. At that point you might as well include Randle.

Middleton is probably the #2 guy on the Bucks title actually - 24 ppg in the 2021 finals.

And Wiggins and Klay both put up 17-18 ppg in 2022.

And Giannis, Curry and Kawhi were ATG's playing at or near their peak. Ant isn't at the level those guys were at during those runs.

I mean, who else can create their own shot on the Wolves? They don't have anyone that's even a shaky #2 offensive player on a title winner like a 21 Middleton or a 22 Klay or Wiggins. Bottom line.

Randle looked good to start this playoffs but it seems clear now that he's not that guy.

Well, I just reacted to you calling these secondary guys ‘star offensive players’ because I don't see them as such at all. That in and of itself doesn't say anything about how they compare to the second best offensive option of the Timberwolves, or how the rest of the teams compare.

I agree with you that Randle is ‘not that guy’ but neither were 2022 Klay or Wiggins, and the others I have mentioned, if one looks at it objectively. I mean, if you include Wiggins of all players (awesome as he was for us) then we're actually already pretty much in Jaden McDaniels territory.

I also agree with you that Edwards is not a Giannis, Curry or Kawhi level player. But that's a different conversation to have because I simply challenged your claim that a team needs ‘two star offensive players to win a title’ and the subsequent names you listed which to me felt at odds with the definition of offensive stars.

Wiggins had a sollid run as a #2 option that playoffs. He was far more dependable than this year's Randle. And 2022 Curry is a level or two above this year's Ant.

My point stands - tell me who on the Wolves is a #2 option on a title winner? I'm not seeing it. And that's why I think Minny needs to keep their options open on the entire roster outside of Edwards.

[TheZachAttack]

The Timberwolves desperately need more ball-handling, initiation, and shot creation around Ant. Teams can overload on Ant without much worry at all. I would also like to see them get younger, more athletic, and play faster. They have some of the pieces internally to do this with Rob, Shannon, and Clark. They also have #17 and #33 in the draft.

From my perspective, Naz/NAW/Randle are all expendable depending on the contract they want. In an ideal world, they trade Gobert but I don't see how that happens. In Game 4, the Thunder doubled Edwards on over 60% of his possessions and face guarded him all over the floor -- the Wolves struggle to punish or even get defenses into rotation despite how much they overload on Ant (more-so than other star players because of the lack of threats).

They desperately need more ball-handling, initiation, and for that matter consistent shooting -- which they do have to some extent -- but IMO is inconsistent because they don't have enough ball handlers and initiators that can let their play finishers by play finishers. The whole rotation was basically slotting up 1-2 spots in advantage creation and initiation -- this is the biggest thing that burned them.

In addition, the Wolves own their own FRP next year. If there is a year to at least "risk" a step back. It's next year.

The other option, if advantage creation is difficult, is to just become an amazing 3 point shooting team and be more consistent. I think that I would try to go after KD + Tyus Jones. I wonder if Randle + Gobert could get you KD since the Suns basically have to try to compete. They could convince themselves that Booker/Beal/Randle/Gobert could work.

KD + Tyus + the potential of the 17th / 33rd picks + Rob/Shannon/Clark is a decent retool even if in this scenario they were to lose Randle/Gobert/NAW.

[Mamba81p]

Middleton is probably the #2 guy on the Bucks title actually - 24 ppg in the 2021 finals.

And Wiggins and Klay both put up 17-18 ppg in 2022.

And Giannis, Curry and Kawhi were ATG's playing at or near their peak. Ant isn't at the level those guys were at during those runs.

I mean, who else can create their own shot on the Wolves? They don't have anyone that's even a shaky #2 offensive player on a title winner like a 21 Middleton or a 22 Klay or Wiggins. Bottom line.

Randle looked good to start this playoffs but it seems clear now that he's not that guy.

Well, I just reacted to you calling these secondary guys ‘star offensive players’ because I don't see them as such at all. That in and of itself doesn't say anything about how they compare to the second best offensive option of the Timberwolves, or how the rest of the teams compare.

I agree with you that Randle is ‘not that guy’ but neither were 2022 Klay or Wiggins, and the others I have mentioned, if one looks at it objectively. I mean, if you include Wiggins of all players (awesome as he was for us) then we're actually already pretty much in Jaden McDaniels territory.

I also agree with you that Edwards is not a Giannis, Curry or Kawhi level player. But that's a different conversation to have because I simply challenged your claim that a team needs ‘two star offensive players to win a title’ and the subsequent names you listed which to me felt at odds with the definition of offensive stars.

Wiggins had a sollid run as a #2 option that playoffs. He was far more dependable than this year's Randle. And 2022 Curry is a level or two above this year's Ant.

My point stands - tell me who on the Wolves is a #2 option on a title winner? I'm not seeing it. And that's why I think Minny needs to keep their options open on the entire roster outside of Edwards.

What if Wiggins that year was a product of curry/warriors ? How do you know Randle wouldn’t do the same. Randle at least led a team into playoffs, something Wiggins never did.
In my mind an offensive star should still look like an allstar as a #1

[Black Jack]

Well, I just reacted to you calling these secondary guys ‘star offensive players’ because I don't see them as such at all. That in and of itself doesn't say anything about how they compare to the second best offensive option of the Timberwolves, or how the rest of the teams compare.

I agree with you that Randle is ‘not that guy’ but neither were 2022 Klay or Wiggins, and the others I have mentioned, if one looks at it objectively. I mean, if you include Wiggins of all players (awesome as he was for us) then we're actually already pretty much in Jaden McDaniels territory.

I also agree with you that Edwards is not a Giannis, Curry or Kawhi level player. But that's a different conversation to have because I simply challenged your claim that a team needs ‘two star offensive players to win a title’ and the subsequent names you listed which to me felt at odds with the definition of offensive stars.

Wiggins had a sollid run as a #2 option that playoffs. He was far more dependable than this year's Randle. And 2022 Curry is a level or two above this year's Ant.

My point stands - tell me who on the Wolves is a #2 option on a title winner? I'm not seeing it. And that's why I think Minny needs to keep their options open on the entire roster outside of Edwards.

What if Wiggins that year was a product of curry/warriors ? How do you know Randle wouldn’t do the same. Randle at least led a team into playoffs, something Wiggins never did.
In my mind an offensive star should still look like an allstar as a #1

Let's say Randle is better than peak Wiggins. Well, the Warriors still had Klay, yes post injury but still hitting shots. And also Poole who was a solid shot maker off the bench. If your argument is Ant's role players were as good as the 2022 Warriors role players, I disagree. Yes Curry has gravity. But I'm not seeing where the Wolves have a championship level roster.

Put it this way if you added another guy who can create offense against conf finals / finals level defense to current Wolves then you have a contender. I just don't believe this current roster has what it takes to counter when teams collapse on Ant.

Look at the other rosters top two offensive players that made the conf finals:
Pacers - Halliburton, Siakam
Knicks - KAT, Brunson
Thunder - SGA, JDub

I don't think Randle is that type of player, he needs to be the 3rd or 4th option on a title winner, not 2nd. Bottom line.

I mean, they traded KAT because their payroll forced them to. In an ideal world they would keep him. Ant and KAT is a championship level 1-2 punch. Ant and Randle...is not.

[MNRunLeft]

Look at the other rosters top two offensive players that made the conf finals:
Pacers - Halliburton, Siakam
Knicks - KAT, Brunson
Thunder - SGA, JDub

I don't think Randle is that type of player, he needs to be the 3rd or 4th option on a title winner, not 2nd. Bottom line.

I mean, they traded KAT because their payroll forced them to. In an ideal world they would keep him. Ant and KAT is a championship level 1-2 punch. Ant and Randle...is not.

If you look at the playoffs as a whole and not simple the conference finals its fair to argue Randle has been better in the playoffs than KAT.

[Black Jack]

Look at the other rosters top two offensive players that made the conf finals:
Pacers - Halliburton, Siakam
Knicks - KAT, Brunson
Thunder - SGA, JDub

I don't think Randle is that type of player, he needs to be the 3rd or 4th option on a title winner, not 2nd. Bottom line.

I mean, they traded KAT because their payroll forced them to. In an ideal world they would keep him. Ant and KAT is a championship level 1-2 punch. Ant and Randle...is not.

If you look at the playoffs as a whole and not simple the conference finals its fair to argue Randle has been better in the playoffs than KAT.

Nobody's drafting Randle over KAT for their playoff run. Flaws and all, one of those guys is an elite scorer and the other is not.

[garrick]

This is madness. In case you missed the Memo, the Wolves blew the doors off of the Lakers and the greatest "Big 3" in NBA history.

They handled their business against LA. They were lucky that LA was so depleted, and they were lucky they had injured Luka instead of semi-healthy AD in the frontcourt. And that Reaves sucked. That was the point, that they were lucky because they didn't face a better team.

The Wolves also had a huge mismatch at Center where Gobert was feasting on whichever center the Lakers were playing out there.

Against OKC they didn't have that advantage.

[AbeVigodaLive]

This is madness. In case you missed the Memo, the Wolves blew the doors off of the Lakers and the greatest "Big 3" in NBA history.

They handled their business against LA. They were lucky that LA was so depleted, and they were lucky they had injured Luka instead of semi-healthy AD in the frontcourt. And that Reaves sucked. That was the point, that they were lucky because they didn't face a better team.

To be fair... did the Timberwolves have anything to do with Reaves sucking?

I get that modern-day basketball analysis online centers around what did Team A did wrong instead of what Team B did well. (Because it's easier.) But the narrative around Minnesota's luck in winning 80% of its playoff games is a bit weird.

It would be one thing if they sneaked past either the Lakers or the Warriors. But they were 8 - 2... with an average margin of victory that matches the record and eye test. Neither series was remotely close.


[Note: Along those lines, most or almost all of the "Lakers SUCK!" mantras came after the series... further illustrating my point. The Lakers were the favorites. The Lakers had the matchup advantages. Etc.]

[AbeVigodaLive]

This is madness. In case you missed the Memo, the Wolves blew the doors off of the Lakers and the greatest "Big 3" in NBA history.

They handled their business against LA. They were lucky that LA was so depleted, and they were lucky they had injured Luka instead of semi-healthy AD in the frontcourt. And that Reaves sucked. That was the point, that they were lucky because they didn't face a better team.

The Wolves also had a huge mismatch at Center where Gobert was feasting on whichever center the Lakers were playing out there.

Against OKC they didn't have that advantage.

Rudy Gobert had 14 points and 25 rebounds vs. the Lakers.





... over the first 4 games combined!

That's 3.5 ppg and 6.1 rebounds.

Somewhere, Mark West and Ervin Johnson are beaming, now thinking they were "feasting" at the center position back in the day.

[Ambrose]

They are in an interesting spot. Seems likely two of NAW, Naz and Randle are going to be out next season. Lots of people have floated moving on from Conley or Gobert. The strength of this team the last few years has been their depth, and it's possible next year that takes a legitimate hit.

However, they also have some young guys who could grow and make that a non-issue. TSJ, Clark, Miller, Dilly and maybe even Minott are all at least a little intriguing, and they have pick 17. I could see next year being one where they don't have the same level of success as the last two, but they are better positioned after that to take a step up.

Unless they trade for KD. Then I believe they're screwed.

[ConSarnit]

Middleton is probably the #2 guy on the Bucks title actually - 24 ppg in the 2021 finals.

And Wiggins and Klay both put up 17-18 ppg in 2022.

And Giannis, Curry and Kawhi were ATG's playing at or near their peak. Ant isn't at the level those guys were at during those runs.

I mean, who else can create their own shot on the Wolves? They don't have anyone that's even a shaky #2 offensive player on a title winner like a 21 Middleton or a 22 Klay or Wiggins. Bottom line.

Randle looked good to start this playoffs but it seems clear now that he's not that guy.

Well, I just reacted to you calling these secondary guys ‘star offensive players’ because I don't see them as such at all. That in and of itself doesn't say anything about how they compare to the second best offensive option of the Timberwolves, or how the rest of the teams compare.

I agree with you that Randle is ‘not that guy’ but neither were 2022 Klay or Wiggins, and the others I have mentioned, if one looks at it objectively. I mean, if you include Wiggins of all players (awesome as he was for us) then we're actually already pretty much in Jaden McDaniels territory.

I also agree with you that Edwards is not a Giannis, Curry or Kawhi level player. But that's a different conversation to have because I simply challenged your claim that a team needs ‘two star offensive players to win a title’ and the subsequent names you listed which to me felt at odds with the definition of offensive stars.

Wiggins had a sollid run as a #2 option that playoffs. He was far more dependable than this year's Randle. And 2022 Curry is a level or two above this year's Ant.

My point stands - tell me who on the Wolves is a #2 option on a title winner? I'm not seeing it. And that's why I think Minny needs to keep their options open on the entire roster outside of Edwards.

Player A) 21ppg on 62 TS%

Player B) 17ppg on 54 TS%

Without looking it up please tell me which one was ‘22 Wiggins and which one is ‘25 Randle

[AbeVigodaLive]

Was Wiggins really the #2 on that Warriors squad for an extended period?

He was the 4th leading scorer in the regular season and in each of the first two rounds. And that team also had Draymond Green.

He played very solidly in the WCF and Finals. But was it as "Wiggins is obvious the 2nd best and important player on the Warriors" ... or was it more "Holy cow, I did not expect this from Andrew Wiggins!"

I think that's a big differentiator comparing '22 Wiggins to '25 Randle. Wiggins had a great run during those playoffs and did multiple things well. Things he hadn't really done consistently before... or after.

[tsherkin]

Was Wiggins really the #2 on that Warriors squad for an extended period?

He was the 4th leading scorer in the regular season and in each of the first two rounds. And that team also had Draymond Green.

He played very solidly in the WCF and Finals. But was it as "Wiggins is obvious the 2nd best and important player on the Warriors" ... or was it more "Holy cow, I did not expect this from Andrew Wiggins!"

I think that's a big differentiator comparing '22 Wiggins to '25 Randle. Wiggins had a great run during those playoffs and did multiple things well. Things he hadn't really done consistently before... or after.

I don't know that I'd call Wiggins the #2, except when Klay was injured. He certainly wasn't in the 2022 playoffs. He was third in shooting volume, didn't shoot well from 3, was like 2% below playoff league-average scoring efficiency... He defended well. He was on fire against Denver, sucked against Memphis, was mediocre against the Mavs and sucked against Boston.

In the RS, he was a strong defender and a good corner 3pt shooter. In the playoffs, he was a strong defender who had one good series and would sprinkle a good game in here and there in the playoffs after the first round. I think he gets overplayed a lot because it was a storied run to the title, but people forget that how the return of Klay impacted everything for the Warriors.

But yeah, speaking of him as a #2 isn't really accurate any time Klay was playing.

[ConSarnit]

Was Wiggins really the #2 on that Warriors squad for an extended period?

He was the 4th leading scorer in the regular season and in each of the first two rounds. And that team also had Draymond Green.

He played very solidly in the WCF and Finals. But was it as "Wiggins is obvious the 2nd best and important player on the Warriors" ... or was it more "Holy cow, I did not expect this from Andrew Wiggins!"

I think that's a big differentiator comparing '22 Wiggins to '25 Randle. Wiggins had a great run during those playoffs and did multiple things well. Things he hadn't really done consistently before... or after.

He definitely wasn’t a “solid #2 offensive option” as some as positing in this thread. He averaged 16ppg on 54 TS% during the Warriors title run. That would put him in the realm of worst 2nd options of all-time. He did defend and rebound extremely well.

This doesn’t even really touch on the fact that he wasn’t even really GSW’s 2nd option. Klay and Poole both averaged more points, assists and better efficiency than Wiggins.

[Black Jack]

Well, I just reacted to you calling these secondary guys ‘star offensive players’ because I don't see them as such at all. That in and of itself doesn't say anything about how they compare to the second best offensive option of the Timberwolves, or how the rest of the teams compare.

I agree with you that Randle is ‘not that guy’ but neither were 2022 Klay or Wiggins, and the others I have mentioned, if one looks at it objectively. I mean, if you include Wiggins of all players (awesome as he was for us) then we're actually already pretty much in Jaden McDaniels territory.

I also agree with you that Edwards is not a Giannis, Curry or Kawhi level player. But that's a different conversation to have because I simply challenged your claim that a team needs ‘two star offensive players to win a title’ and the subsequent names you listed which to me felt at odds with the definition of offensive stars.

Wiggins had a sollid run as a #2 option that playoffs. He was far more dependable than this year's Randle. And 2022 Curry is a level or two above this year's Ant.

My point stands - tell me who on the Wolves is a #2 option on a title winner? I'm not seeing it. And that's why I think Minny needs to keep their options open on the entire roster outside of Edwards.

Player A) 21ppg on 62 TS%

Player B) 17ppg on 54 TS%

Without looking it up please tell me which one was ‘22 Wiggins and which one is ‘25 Randle

You may well have me

I'm a vibe guy and I definitely would prefer Wiggins 22 finals to Randles 25 WCF

[schnakenpopanz]

I know it might sound crazy to sme, but what if the Wolves decide to sell high, I mean very high on Edwards and Gobert? I think they could get a real big package, though it might not happen just to think about what would be possible is a good food for thought