Shams: Watson to CLE, Strus to LAC, picks to DEN

[Vae Victus]

I think it's telling that LAC would rather have Max Strus and the corpse of Bradley Beal than Mathurin

I mean, getting him back for the QO isnt a bad outcome. Just means the other players on the roster are more available to trade for the highest offer.

I mean shoot, any team that offers him a reasonable deal is pretty much a shoe in to steal him (like 3 years 39mil). But youre right, its been crickets. If i'm the Clips id sign him to a 1+1 deal (starting at 10mil) so that he can preserve his bird rights and that i can trade him, otherwise on the cheaper QO his trade value is nil as he can refuse trades due to taking away his bird rights.

Mathurin and his agent is NOT having a good offseason.

Mathurin would also have the right to veto any trade if he signed a 1+1 deal, as if he was traded, he would lose his full Bird Rights and would drop back down to "non-Bird Rights". It would likely only matter much if he blew up a bit after a trade.

Oh i thought the Clips (who currently have his bird rights) can extend it a bit if they extend him, but i guess not. Well shoot, he's in a rough place as im sure the Clips dont mind keeping him for the 8.8mil QO, now it comes down to other teams valuing him enough to sign him to a deal he wants (unlikely) or high enough to make the Clips not match... which they might as well, to preserve a trade asset.

[Laimbeer]

Cavs have really hurt their depth.

[toooskies]

Cavs have really hurt their depth.

You're not wrong. They essentially let four guys go (Schroder, Strus, Wade, Ellis) in order for it to be possible to acquire Watson. Not all of that was done explicitly with Watson in mind, but the Cavs probably have 7 guys they believe in (starters + Merrill + Tyson) and then a bunch of guys with at least a little potential.

[nykballa2k4]

I hate that the first is unprotected. Don't mind trying to roll a hard six, but I'm not emptying my wallet to do it.

I hope Watson works out. If he doesn't, it's going to be hard to justify keeping Altman around.

I mean Cavs are as all in as all-in gets so this deal makes sense. I said in previous threads that I felt that Watson was the perfect fit for the Cavs, just didn't think it possible. They made it possible at great cost. Denver should have gotten Tyson in the deal, but I can see why Cavs would resist that especially with the high variance 2031 on the table. PW sort of came out of nowhere, so Denver can't cry too much about getting such as asset for what amounts to found money.

[mcfly1204]

Cavs have really hurt their depth.

You're not wrong. They essentially let four guys go (Schroder, Strus, Wade, Ellis) in order for it to be possible to acquire Watson. Not all of that was done explicitly with Watson in mind, but the Cavs probably have 7 guys they believe in (starters + Merrill + Tyson) and then a bunch of guys with at least a little potential.

It could be worse, we could be looking at starting John Collins and Paul Reed...

All jokes aside, 5 of the top 6 players in minutes played from the Knicks series are returning, with the sixth (Strus) being replaced by Watson. They lack experience off the bench, but getting guys like Proctor, Porter, Tomlin, and Tyson extended burn during the regular season could set them up well come playoff time. The biggest hole I see at this point is in the form of a backup 4 who can spend some minutes at the 5.

[R-DAWG]

I’m terms of value, the nuggets did great here. An unprotected pick for a role player? Sure it’s 4 years out, but that’s actually better than a guaranteed late first next year.

Unfortunately, they backed themselves into a position where they are shedding talent for future assets during the prime of a MVP player. The level of cap mismanagement here is just awful.

Is it really cap mis management as much as the reality of a window closing? Zeke Naji is really the only bad contract on the roster, and they were in a position where they needed to lock up one of Braun or Watson last summer. Now in hindsight, they would have gotten Braun on a cheaper deal this summer but there was risk in that.

The healthy version of their starting lineup - Murray-Braun-Johnson-Gordon-Jokic - is still championship level. Jillian Strawther and Spencer Jones are solid bench pieces and Bagley and Tyus Jones are solid for the back of the rotation.

Now sure - you wish you could turn the 13.5mm your paying Naji/Jones into the 20.5mm that Watson is making this year. Sure. In hindsight, could you have waited and knocked down Brauns number by 10-20% sure, but that could have also gone the other way.

But I really don’t think there is roster mismanagement here, it’s just the reality of an aging title contender.

Also - they have some moveable salary and a 1st round pick to move - maybe the lesser of CLE/DEN 2031 1st and Naji’s salary can bring back a year 3 or 4 rookie scale guy to replace Watson from a team that doesn’t want to pay said player. And From a pure cap perspective - Zeke Naji for Sadiq Bey works. Not sure if he’s with a 1st from Den or if Den has enough in terms of 2nd for New Orleans to justify eating the extra year of Naji.

[jayjaysee]

I’m terms of value, the nuggets did great here. An unprotected pick for a role player? Sure it’s 4 years out, but that’s actually better than a guaranteed late first next year.

Unfortunately, they backed themselves into a position where they are shedding talent for future assets during the prime of a MVP player. The level of cap mismanagement here is just awful.

Is it really cap mis management as much as the reality of a window closing? Zeke Naji is really the only bad contract on the roster, and they were in a position where they needed to lock up one of Braun or Watson last summer. Now in hindsight, they would have gotten Braun on a cheaper deal this summer but there was risk in that.

The healthy version of their starting lineup - Murray-Braun-Johnson-Gordon-Jokic - is still championship level. Jillian Strawther and Spencer Jones are solid bench pieces and Bagley and Tyus Jones are solid for the back of the rotation.

Now sure - you wish you could turn the 13.5mm your paying Naji/Jones into the 20.5mm that Watson is making this year. Sure. In hindsight, could you have waited and knocked down Brauns number by 10-20% sure, but that could have also gone the other way.

But I really don’t think there is roster mismanagement here, it’s just the reality of an aging title contender.

Also - they have some moveable salary and a 1st round pick to move - maybe the lesser of CLE/DEN 2031 1st and Naji’s salary can bring back a year 3 or 4 rookie scale guy to replace Watson from a team that doesn’t want to pay said player. And From a pure cap perspective - Zeke Naji for Sadiq Bey works. Not sure if he’s with a 1st from Den or if Den has enough in terms of 2nd for New Orleans to justify eating the extra year of Naji.

It’s very hard not to call Braun a bad contract to me.

If they hadn’t extended him, Watson would’ve been locked up and Braun probably costs like 50% of the deal he is on, even if it’s only 2-3 years..

[toooskies]

I’m terms of value, the nuggets did great here. An unprotected pick for a role player? Sure it’s 4 years out, but that’s actually better than a guaranteed late first next year.

Unfortunately, they backed themselves into a position where they are shedding talent for future assets during the prime of a MVP player. The level of cap mismanagement here is just awful.

Is it really cap mis management as much as the reality of a window closing? Zeke Naji is really the only bad contract on the roster, and they were in a position where they needed to lock up one of Braun or Watson last summer. Now in hindsight, they would have gotten Braun on a cheaper deal this summer but there was risk in that.

The healthy version of their starting lineup - Murray-Braun-Johnson-Gordon-Jokic - is still championship level. Jillian Strawther and Spencer Jones are solid bench pieces and Bagley and Tyus Jones are solid for the back of the rotation.

Now sure - you wish you could turn the 13.5mm your paying Naji/Jones into the 20.5mm that Watson is making this year. Sure. In hindsight, could you have waited and knocked down Brauns number by 10-20% sure, but that could have also gone the other way.

But I really don’t think there is roster mismanagement here, it’s just the reality of an aging title contender.

Also - they have some moveable salary and a 1st round pick to move - maybe the lesser of CLE/DEN 2031 1st and Naji’s salary can bring back a year 3 or 4 rookie scale guy to replace Watson from a team that doesn’t want to pay said player. And From a pure cap perspective - Zeke Naji for Sadiq Bey works. Not sure if he’s with a 1st from Den or if Den has enough in terms of 2nd for New Orleans to justify eating the extra year of Naji.

It’s very hard not to call Braun a bad contract to me.

If they hadn’t extended him, Watson would’ve been locked up and Braun probably costs like 50% of the deal he is on, even if it’s only 2-3 years..

So here's the thing: Christian Braun still shot 65% from two last year. So even while shooting an absurdly low 30% from three (small sample due to injuries), he still posted over 60% true shooting, still had a really strong plus-minus and on-off (Jokic effect), is still an above-average defender. All the impact stats like Braun better than Watson.

If Braun returns to form shooting the ball (career 36.5% 3-point shooter) then he again doesn't look so bad next year.

[jayjaysee]

Is it really cap mis management as much as the reality of a window closing? Zeke Naji is really the only bad contract on the roster, and they were in a position where they needed to lock up one of Braun or Watson last summer. Now in hindsight, they would have gotten Braun on a cheaper deal this summer but there was risk in that.

The healthy version of their starting lineup - Murray-Braun-Johnson-Gordon-Jokic - is still championship level. Jillian Strawther and Spencer Jones are solid bench pieces and Bagley and Tyus Jones are solid for the back of the rotation.

Now sure - you wish you could turn the 13.5mm your paying Naji/Jones into the 20.5mm that Watson is making this year. Sure. In hindsight, could you have waited and knocked down Brauns number by 10-20% sure, but that could have also gone the other way.

But I really don’t think there is roster mismanagement here, it’s just the reality of an aging title contender.

Also - they have some moveable salary and a 1st round pick to move - maybe the lesser of CLE/DEN 2031 1st and Naji’s salary can bring back a year 3 or 4 rookie scale guy to replace Watson from a team that doesn’t want to pay said player. And From a pure cap perspective - Zeke Naji for Sadiq Bey works. Not sure if he’s with a 1st from Den or if Den has enough in terms of 2nd for New Orleans to justify eating the extra year of Naji.

It’s very hard not to call Braun a bad contract to me.

If they hadn’t extended him, Watson would’ve been locked up and Braun probably costs like 50% of the deal he is on, even if it’s only 2-3 years..

So here's the thing: Christian Braun still shot 65% from two last year. So even while shooting an absurdly low 30% from three (small sample due to injuries), he still posted over 60% true shooting, still had a really strong plus-minus and on-off (Jokic effect), is still an above-average defender. All the impact stats like Braun better than Watson.

If Braun returns to form shooting the ball (career 36.5% 3-point shooter) then he again doesn't look so bad next year.

The Jokic effect would work on other guys who wouldn’t need to get 25 mil a year over it. Braun played like
87% of his minutes with Joker last season. I know he was coming back from injury, but that’s crazy to get to shadow the best player in the world and still be meh on the court. A lot of stats might get tricked by him paired with Joker so much.

I am not saying he is a bad player. Just think Watson was the more important piece and Braun is overpaid. Specifically, paid a lot more than he would have been without extending early.

[toooskies]

It’s very hard not to call Braun a bad contract to me.

If they hadn’t extended him, Watson would’ve been locked up and Braun probably costs like 50% of the deal he is on, even if it’s only 2-3 years..

So here's the thing: Christian Braun still shot 65% from two last year. So even while shooting an absurdly low 30% from three (small sample due to injuries), he still posted over 60% true shooting, still had a really strong plus-minus and on-off (Jokic effect), is still an above-average defender. All the impact stats like Braun better than Watson.

If Braun returns to form shooting the ball (career 36.5% 3-point shooter) then he again doesn't look so bad next year.

The Jokic effect would work on other guys who wouldn’t need to get 25 mil a year over it. Braun played like
87% of his minutes with Joker last season. I know he was coming back from injury, but that’s crazy to get to shadow the best player in the world and still be meh on the court. A lot of stats might get tricked by him paired with Joker so much.

I am not saying he is a bad player. Just think Watson was the more important piece and Braun is overpaid. Specifically, paid a lot more than he would have been without extending early.

Watson looked great but in a small sample. His signing could go well or extremely badly for the Cavs-- lots of lost assets if he just ends up being DeAndre Hunter 2.0.

Braun has a longer, better track record. Higher floor, lower ceiling. Arguably last year was Braun's floor and the Nuggets still had a positive on/off with him on the floor and Jokic off, while the Nuggets were negative without Jokic overall. Braun + Jokic has a better plus-minus than just Jokic in every year of Braun's career. For Watson that was only true this year.

Denver is a lot better off having been paid to dump Watson than they would've been if they would have traded Braun at a loss.

[BelgradeNugget]

So here's the thing: Christian Braun still shot 65% from two last year. So even while shooting an absurdly low 30% from three (small sample due to injuries), he still posted over 60% true shooting, still had a really strong plus-minus and on-off (Jokic effect), is still an above-average defender. All the impact stats like Braun better than Watson.

If Braun returns to form shooting the ball (career 36.5% 3-point shooter) then he again doesn't look so bad next year.

The Jokic effect would work on other guys who wouldn’t need to get 25 mil a year over it. Braun played like
87% of his minutes with Joker last season. I know he was coming back from injury, but that’s crazy to get to shadow the best player in the world and still be meh on the court. A lot of stats might get tricked by him paired with Joker so much.

I am not saying he is a bad player. Just think Watson was the more important piece and Braun is overpaid. Specifically, paid a lot more than he would have been without extending early.

Watson looked great but in a small sample. His signing could go well or extremely badly for the Cavs-- lots of lost assets if he just ends up being DeAndre Hunter 2.0.

Braun has a longer, better track record. Higher floor, lower ceiling. Arguably last year was Braun's floor and the Nuggets still had a positive on/off with him on the floor and Jokic off, while the Nuggets were negative without Jokic overall. Braun + Jokic has a better plus-minus than just Jokic in every year of Braun's career. For Watson that was only true this year.

Denver is a lot better off having been paid to dump Watson than they would've been if they would have traded Braun at a loss.

Really good analysis of Braun and Watson. To be fair to Watson he played when everyone else was injured so it could have lowered his on/off a little bit.
I would like just to add Cam Johnson in conversation. A lot of people tought Nuggets should have dumped him and kept Watson, but with Cam on and Jokic off Nuggets had +7.25 netrtg, I can't remember any Nuggets player was so positive in non Jokic minutes.
So at the end of the day I think Nuggets got what they wanted, kept players they wanted, and I hope PWat will work for Cavs as they hope he will.

[schaffy]

I’m terms of value, the nuggets did great here. An unprotected pick for a role player? Sure it’s 4 years out, but that’s actually better than a guaranteed late first next year.

Unfortunately, they backed themselves into a position where they are shedding talent for future assets during the prime of a MVP player. The level of cap mismanagement here is just awful.

Is it really cap mis management as much as the reality of a window closing? Zeke Naji is really the only bad contract on the roster, and they were in a position where they needed to lock up one of Braun or Watson last summer. Now in hindsight, they would have gotten Braun on a cheaper deal this summer but there was risk in that.

The healthy version of their starting lineup - Murray-Braun-Johnson-Gordon-Jokic - is still championship level. Jillian Strawther and Spencer Jones are solid bench pieces and Bagley and Tyus Jones are solid for the back of the rotation.

Now sure - you wish you could turn the 13.5mm your paying Naji/Jones into the 20.5mm that Watson is making this year. Sure. In hindsight, could you have waited and knocked down Brauns number by 10-20% sure, but that could have also gone the other way.

But I really don’t think there is roster mismanagement here, it’s just the reality of an aging title contender.

Also - they have some moveable salary and a 1st round pick to move - maybe the lesser of CLE/DEN 2031 1st and Naji’s salary can bring back a year 3 or 4 rookie scale guy to replace Watson from a team that doesn’t want to pay said player. And From a pure cap perspective - Zeke Naji for Sadiq Bey works. Not sure if he’s with a 1st from Den or if Den has enough in terms of 2nd for New Orleans to justify eating the extra year of Naji.

It’s very hard not to call Braun a bad contract to me.

If they hadn’t extended him, Watson would’ve been locked up and Braun probably costs like 50% of the deal he is on, even if it’s only 2-3 years..

I think Braun has a chance to get healthy/play better and maybe I think his contract turns more neutral. But they signed him at his high water mark for 25M/yr AAV. Even if last year doesnt go sideways on him with the ankle and shot, if he duplicates the prior year was he really going to get more than the 25? I dont see it. Good player, really nice as your 5th best starter as a guy who can space the floor and play defense who gives a ton of hustle all over the court. But I think theres a ceiling on what those guys make.