2023 Draft Discussion Part 4

[WuTang_CMB]

Too many unknowns with this roster right now so it's hard where we will land. Ideally we want BPA. If I had to guess we are going guard or wing that are 2 way potential players. If Cason doesn't fall, I'd guess Sidy, Hawks, Bilal, Kobe, Rupert in no order

[WuTang_CMB]

Watch on YouTube

[Yallbecrazy]

I'm only able boxscore watching but Coulibaly with another solid game. 10 points, 7 rebs. 3-5 fg, 1-1 3pt, 3-3ft. I worry 13 won't be high enough to get him.

Don't worry, he's not going in the lottery.

[Kevin Willis]

I'm guessing one of these guys is a Raptor

Kobe
Bilal
Hawkins
Sidy
Maybe(Miller and George)

Is this a top 7-8 draft, my excitement level falls off around there. I'll be stamped regardless

Possibly Dick. A team might not like his D or fall in love with someone else. It's possible Dick lands in our lap. It will all depend on draft order and team need. Dick is definitely what this team needs if available and can play SG.

No doubt Dick has slide potential. Could be this year's AJ Griffin.

I can absolutely see him slide because some players are going to do really well at the combine and workouts. Tankathon has him at 9 but ahead of Hendricks, Wallace, GG Jackson, Sensabrough, Bufkin, Hawkins. Some of them will pass him. OKC, Orlando and Dallas pick right ahead of us and I can see them passing on him.

[Yallbecrazy]

I'm guessing one of these guys is a Raptor

Kobe
Bilal
Hawkins
Sidy
Maybe(Miller and George)

Is this a top 7-8 draft, my excitement level falls off around there. I'll be stamped regardless

Possibly Dick. A team might not like his D or fall in love with someone else. It's possible Dick lands in our lap. It will all depend on draft order and team need. Dick is definitely what this team needs if available and can play SG.

Is Dick a 6'8 Korver that's more athletic and handles? Giddey that can shoot the lights out with a little less passing? Dick seems to make the right basketball plays. I think he'd already be the 6th man on the team, fighting to start at SG.

Dick has Stls > TOs!!!

Is there a swingman in a tough conference, that has more dunks than Dick?

Dick was considered even with Brandon Miller for a good chunk of the season with some of the draft evaluators I respect more having Dick slightly ahead. Then Miller got super hot for a month and moved into the top 3 discussion and despite struggling after that hot month he stayed there.

Dick had the same struggles as Miller, but didn't have that hot month. They are fairly similar players.

[Psubs]

Possibly Dick. A team might not like his D or fall in love with someone else. It's possible Dick lands in our lap. It will all depend on draft order and team need. Dick is definitely what this team needs if available and can play SG.

Is Dick a 6'8 Korver that's more athletic and handles? Giddey that can shoot the lights out with a little less passing? Dick seems to make the right basketball plays. I think he'd already be the 6th man on the team, fighting to start at SG.

Dick has Stls > TOs!!!

Is there a swingman in a tough conference, that has more dunks than Dick?

Dick was considered even with Brandon Miller for a good chunk of the season with some of the draft evaluators I respect more having Dick slightly ahead. Then Miller got super hot for a month and moved into the top 3 discussion and despite struggling after that hot month he stayed there.

Dick had the same struggles as Miller, but didn't have that hot month. They are fairly similar players.

Miller shot more 3's with a 7.5 per game, which may explain how Dick has a slightly higher FG% than Miller. Let's make note that Brandon Miller is 20.5 years old, which is sophomore aged. Is Miller going to be like Carmelo that can shoot the 3?

[ItsDanger]

Gradey Dick is primarily an off ball scorer while Miller projects as both on and off ball scorer. Gordon Hayward is a terrible comp to Dick, Hayward had a much more versatile offensive game. I'd project Gradey around 15 or so, more ideal for a team with 2 key scoring options already in place. Currently, I feel our roster has NONE. This is a problem, and everyone better acknowledge that this team needs shot creation in half court. Only a completely unselfish and cohesive team can overcome that deficiency.

If you let Fred & Gary walk in whatever method, what is the ideal player at #13 for Scottie/OG/Pascal/Poeltl? It has to be a combo guard. Someone with ball handling and someone who can chase & get around screens on defense.

Personally I think fixing this roster is too difficult with their biases to consider. Rebuild would be easier.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Gradey Dick is primarily an off ball scorer while Miller projects as both on and off ball scorer. Gordon Hayward is a terrible comp to Dick, Hayward had a much more versatile offensive game. I'd project Gradey around 15 or so, more ideal for a team with 2 key scoring options already in place. Currently, I feel our roster has NONE. This is a problem, and everyone better acknowledge that this team needs shot creation in half court. Only a completely unselfish and cohesive team can overcome that deficiency.

If you let Fred & Gary walk in whatever method, what is the ideal player at #13 for Scottie/OG/Pascal/Poeltl? It has to be a combo guard. Someone with ball handling and someone who can chase & get around screens on defense.

Personally I think fixing this roster is too difficult with their biases to consider. Rebuild would be easier.

Yeah I've cooled on him, I don't think Masai should touch Dick. There's definitely something there but we still need to be looking for multidimensional talents. Dick is pretty multidimensional in certain regards for a guy who is a shooting specialist mainly because of his size and hustle (helps him get credited with boards and steals at a really good rate for a shooter) but it ends there and the shooting is the overwhelming plus ability of his kit. There are very real question marks about his ability to eventually defend 1v1 even just adequately at the NBA level but at the same time you can easily envision this kid becoming one of the best shooters in the league and he seems to really enjoy the game of basketball and given his endless hustle on the court you'd like to think he's gonna work to improve on that end and add some strength to his body.

I don't even know at this point, at the end of the day he makes more sense for a team with an established system that needs a shooting specialist. Elite shooters (Dick has the fundamentals in place to become one in the NBA) will always be valuable. Will Masai see Dick as much of an upgrade over Wieskamp? How well would Dick have performed this past year on a team lacking talent? I think he would have been more exposed defensively.

And finally even though I believe Masai is starting to understand that position and fit cannot be ignored, I don't believe that will in any way affect the Raptors continuing to want two-way players or guys who at least can be adequate defenders if their offense is advanced enough to excuse that side of the ball slightly. I'd be very surprised if the Raptors take Dick and also agree that there is a chance that he falls to the late teens.

[goinrogue]

My guess is Masai loves Rupert or Sidy.
This year’s guy the whole board loves - Kobe?

[dozo]

I'm only able boxscore watching but Coulibaly with another solid game. 10 points, 7 rebs. 3-5 fg, 1-1 3pt, 3-3ft. I worry 13 won't be high enough to get him.

Don't worry, he's not going in the lottery.

He's currently viewed as long-term project by NBA teams. If he's the raptors guy trading down should be considered. The jazz 16th & 28th picks for the 13th would be a dream seneriaro. Coulibay and one of Colby Jones/Sasser is a nice haul.

[Dalek]

Playing Sherlock today and I have been looking at the draft lottery teams and trying to figure out the most likely landing spots for players based on the projected pick:

(6) Orlando Magic - Keyonte George - on a team desperate for scoring potential at guard you draft Keyonte likely the best guard scorer in the draft; him working out with Paolo B is interesting.

(7) Indiana - Jarace Walker - Could look at him as the OG type defender they have always been dreaming of.

(8) Washington Wizards - Anthony Black - they need a PG and a player who will help run the offense and let Beal be a scorer.

(9) Utah Jazz - Gradey Dick - high upside tall shooter fits into what they are trying to do. They could be interested in upgrading from Colin Sexton who is not a traditional PG but I think after the success of Hayward they will want Gradey.

(10) Dallas Mavs - Taylor Hendricks - long-rumored to be a good fit and he could slot into the Dorian Finney Smith role that is missing for them

(11) Orlando Magic - Cam Whitmore - A huge athletic wing that fits their defensive profile.

(12) OKC Thunder - Leonard Miller - rebounding, playmaking big to play with Chet. Weirdo guy OKC would value.

It leaves Cason Wallace out of the mix in the top 12. His ideal landing spot is Toronto because of our system and culture. Utah is really the only problem. To me, Wallace and Bufkin are 1a and 1b. They both defend well, or good enough shooters and drivers. I prefer Wallace because you can see that he is stronger but Bufkin has more burst/quick twitch.

[ATLTimekeeper]

Posting how there are 100 NBA players above that height and weight threshold is irrelevant since every single SF-PF-C is above that threshold. The only numbers having any significance (if they exist) will be ones which show the guards over 6'4 200 lbs that play 20+ or 30+ minutes a game and how such guards vastly constitute a greater percentage of NBA guards getting big minutes and vastly constitute the all-star caliber guards among the entire guard pool.

If you bump that number to 6'5 you have even less of a point and quite frankly I could care less about 1 inch of height on a player.

It's relevant because it shows how good you have to be to be a high minute guard in this league. Guards above 6"4 (no weight included) are about 50 around 30 minutes a night, and 100 around 20+ minutes. One inch doesn't mean much when discussing random prospects, but you can work backwards to look at how good you have to be to make it as a smaller player. If Bufkin were dominant, I would have high confidence in him as a prospect. He had half a season of being good. Less confident.

What are guards 6'4 and below in terms of 30+ mins a night and 20+ mins a night?
And guards 6'5 and below in terms of 30+ mins a night and 20+ mins a night?

Not too sure what you mean here.

I use 28+ minutes/night because that's roughly a 30 minute player.

Under 6"4, there are 23 guards.
Over 6"4, there are 56 guards.

So roughly 1/3 of the big minute guards in the league are below 6"4. So then that makes me question what calibre of player do you have to be under 6"4. Of the 23, 17 are all-stars or will likely be an all-star. Of the 23 under 6"4, of the available data most of their NCAA draft year BPMs are over 9. And of the ones unavailable, we know what kind of productive players Westbrook, Gordon, CP3, Lowry and Conley were in college. The lowest NCAA BPMs were Immanuel Quickley 7.3, Melton 7.2, Tyrese Maxey 4.4.

So for me I view Bufkin (6.7) closer to those players. Skill-wise fingers would be crossed for another Maxey, but I'd still bias toward bigger players and shy away from guards in this draft. I don't see much point in grading on a curve just because a lot of the guards suck in this draft and the Raptors need a guard.

[HumbleRen]

Watch on YouTube

That Bufkin talk was music to my ears.

[ArthurVandelay]

I'm only able boxscore watching but Coulibaly with another solid game. 10 points, 7 rebs. 3-5 fg, 1-1 3pt, 3-3ft. I worry 13 won't be high enough to get him.

Don't worry, he's not going in the lottery.

Time will tell. This time last year Dieng, Williams, and Agbaji weren’t going lottery either.

[WuTang_CMB]

my mock:

Houston - Wemby
Charlotte - Scoot
SA - Miller
ORL - Whitemore
DET - Hendricks
POR - Amen
Indiana - Dick
Wash - Walker
Utah - Keyonte George
Dallas - Cason W
ORL (from Chi) - Ausar Thompson
OKC - L Miller
TOR - Coulibaly or Bufkin

[Morse Code]

Still no love for Brice Sensabaugh. Ya hate to see it

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

It's relevant because it shows how good you have to be to be a high minute guard in this league. Guards above 6"4 (no weight included) are about 50 around 30 minutes a night, and 100 around 20+ minutes. One inch doesn't mean much when discussing random prospects, but you can work backwards to look at how good you have to be to make it as a smaller player. If Bufkin were dominant, I would have high confidence in him as a prospect. He had half a season of being good. Less confident.

What are guards 6'4 and below in terms of 30+ mins a night and 20+ mins a night?
And guards 6'5 and below in terms of 30+ mins a night and 20+ mins a night?

Not too sure what you mean here.

I use 28+ minutes/night because that's roughly a 30 minute player.

Under 6"4, there are 23 guards.
Over 6"4, there are 56 guards.

So roughly 1/3 of the big minute guards in the league are below 6"4. So then that makes me question what calibre of player do you have to be under 6"4. Of the 23, 17 are all-stars or will likely be an all-star. Of the 23 under 6"4, of the available data most of their NCAA draft year BPMs are over 9. And of the ones unavailable, we know what kind of productive players Westbrook, Gordon, CP3, Lowry and Conley were in college. The lowest NCAA BPMs were Immanuel Quickley 7.3, Melton 7.2, Tyrese Maxey 4.4.

So for me I view Bufkin (6.7) closer to those players. Skill-wise fingers would be crossed for another Maxey, but I'd still bias toward bigger players and shy away from guards in this draft. I don't see much point in grading on a curve just because a lot of the guards suck in this draft and the Raptors need a guard.

All this amounts to that if you were blindly drafting guards from a pool of prospects the guards that are 6'4 and under are roughly 33% less likely to log XXXX amount of minutes in the NBA. So if we were unable to evaluate them and just took a random swing, drafting a guard who is 6'5 or taller would result in a historical roughly 33% greater probability of the guard becoming an NBA starter instead of rotation player.

As true as that could be (assuming every player's listed height is completely accurate in your assessment of which guards qualify for each pool of players either 6'4 and below or 6'5 and above which is a big assumption) the question is should that change your philosophy in drafting players. To me, the answer is no.

Furthermore if Kobe Bufkin did not finish the season on the tear that he did in terms of efficiency, I absolutely would not be interested in him. The appeal partly involves the upward trajectory at the end of the year.

Edit: I don't even know why I used the word historical, those numbers are simply based on the current trends in the NBA and trends are in constant flux. There could be an influx of incredible guards in the coming years 6'4 and under for all we know. Proving that the league is trending towards bigger guards over the course of xxx year to xxx year involves different analysis to confirm.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Looking into BPM, Marcus Sasser had the 20th highest single season BPM for a guard since 2010 and he's sandwiched by guys like Marcus Smart and Fred Van Vleet even though Fred's season came as a 20-21 year old and not a 22 year old (Fred's BPM regressed his senior year though so there's that).

[DreamTeam09]

I don't see Grady falling, that's why I said I'm not really excited after the 7-8 range. If he were to fall to us that'd be amazing and I hope we were to pick him. L

Wemby
Scoot
Miller
Cam
Black
Grady
Walker
Twins
Hendricks

Any of those guys would excite me, after that I'm just hoping for the best.

11 deep when you include Wallace, 12 and onward seems like a different tier

[WuTang_CMB]

Watch on YouTube

That Bufkin talk was music to my ears.

https://hoopgoose.notion.site/hoopgoose/Kobe-Bufkin-3674bde811e940e3a03f70c1e59179bb