2020 Draft

[Jamaaliver]

[dckingsfan]

Happy to have either of them, though even better would be to trade down.

Especially in this draft where there is minimal data...

[Ruzious]

I've looked over a bunch of mocks - and it looks like the key to the Wiz getting a real good prospect at 9 is for Cole Anthony and Isaac Okoro going before 9 - which a lot of the mocks do have. One that I respected even had Oturu going 8th. One had Maxey up there. Looks like we have a decent shot even at 9 of getting either Haliburton or Hayes. Can't lose with Hali. Hayes has a higher ceiling but a lower floor.

[pcbothwel]

I've looked over a bunch of mocks - and it looks like the key to the Wiz getting a real good prospect at 9 is for Cole Anthony and Isaac Okoro going before 9 - which a lot of the mocks do have. One that I respected even had Oturu going 8th. One had Maxey up there. Looks like we have a decent shot even at 9 of getting either Haliburton or Hayes. Can't lose with Hali. Hayes has a higher ceiling but a lower floor.

I would also be VERY open to trading down 8-9 spots and getting a 1st next year. Okoro, Green, Vassell, Tyler Bey, Pokusevski, Reed, Anthony, etc.... on of them would be available.

[Dat2U]

I've looked over a bunch of mocks - and it looks like the key to the Wiz getting a real good prospect at 9 is for Cole Anthony and Isaac Okoro going before 9 - which a lot of the mocks do have. One that I respected even had Oturu going 8th. One had Maxey up there. Looks like we have a decent shot even at 9 of getting either Haliburton or Hayes. Can't lose with Hali. Hayes has a higher ceiling but a lower floor.

Haliburton falls sure, but I'd be open to a trade down or even trade out.

[Ruzious]

I've looked over a bunch of mocks - and it looks like the key to the Wiz getting a real good prospect at 9 is for Cole Anthony and Isaac Okoro going before 9 - which a lot of the mocks do have. One that I respected even had Oturu going 8th. One had Maxey up there. Looks like we have a decent shot even at 9 of getting either Haliburton or Hayes. Can't lose with Hali. Hayes has a higher ceiling but a lower floor.

I would also be VERY open to trading down 8-9 spots and getting a 1st next year. Okoro, Green, Vassell, Tyler Bey, Pokusevski, Reed, Anthony, etc.... on of them would be available.

That's a good idea. If we did that, I'd be looking more toward Saddiq Bey and Aaron Nesmith - though I'd definitely have an interest in Green and Tyler Bey. Hmm, Boston has 17 and 26. How bout this: We trade 9 and 37 to Boston for 17, 26, and Boston's 2021 1st - knowing Boston's going to have a low pick in 2021. Somebody good could slide to that 37th pick, but I think the chances are low. Reed probably will, but I think he's scrawnier than advertised, and he can't make up for it by being uber-athletic like Clark did last draft. We could get a decent player liked Payton Prichard there, but I'd rather not settle.

Who would others pick at 17 and 26? My choices?

Spoiler:

Nesmith at 17 and Tyler Bey at 26 (No chance TBey lasts till 37)

[payitforward]

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Not a fan of his at all. Isaiah Rider'ish. More explosive Dion Waiters maybe? Obviously very talented but hate his decision making and motor.

I agree -- & those are good comparo's. No interest. But... very happy he's there to take up a pick before ours comes around.

[payitforward]

I've looked over a bunch of mocks - and it looks like the key to the Wiz getting a real good prospect at 9 is for Cole Anthony and Isaac Okoro going before 9 - which a lot of the mocks do have. One that I respected even had Oturu going 8th. One had Maxey up there. Looks like we have a decent shot even at 9 of getting either Haliburton or Hayes. Can't lose with Hali. Hayes has a higher ceiling but a lower floor.

I would also be VERY open to trading down 8-9 spots and getting a 1st next year. Okoro, Green, Vassell, Tyler Bey, Pokusevski, Reed, Anthony, etc.... on of them would be available.

That's a good idea. If we did that, I'd be looking more toward Saddiq Bey and Aaron Nesmith - though I'd definitely have an interest in Green and Tyler Bey. Hmm, Boston has 17 and 26. How bout this: We trade 9 and 37 to Boston for 17, 26, and Boston's 2021 1st - knowing Boston's going to have a low pick in 2021. Somebody good could slide to that 37th pick, but I think the chances are low. Reed probably will, but I think he's scrawnier than advertised, and he can't make up for it by being uber-athletic like Clark did last draft. We could get a decent player liked Payton Prichard there, but I'd rather not settle.

Who would others pick at 17 and 26? My choices?

Spoiler:

Nesmith at 17 and Tyler Bey at 26 (No chance TBey lasts till 37)

I'd do that trade in a minute, but I think it's a little much to ask -- a bit of a value stretch. Not completely out of the question but a bit unbalanced in our favor.

OTOH, what about our #9 for Boston's #17, #30, #46 & their R2 pick next year. We take Nesmith at #17, still get Bey @ #30, take Makur Maker at #37, & grab Xavier Tillman @ #46. Then we take the 2d coming of Draymond Green with their R2 pick next year! (gives us a year to figure out who that is...)

But... why stop there? we should also buy the #33 from Elton Brand & use it on Paul Reed if he's there or whoever our current favorite is in the R2 thread.

Let's see... that's Nesmith, Bey, Reed, Maker, Tillman, -- & an undrafted shooter of course. That's 6 guys -- my kind of draft!

[payitforward]

... I'd be open to a trade down or even trade out.

To me, a GM who trades out of a draft, any pick any draft, is a guy saying, "fire me; I'm no good at my job."

I can't think of a single trade out of a single draft where there was not a better player to take with the traded pick than the player received for that pick. There must be one; there's one of everything. But I can't think of one.

[gambitx777]

I don't particularly like trading out either. I don't mind trading back but it has to be for real value. I like 9 I. This draft someone's gonna fall maybe that someone is Wiseman maybe that someone is Deni? Idk. But I like the idea of getting 9 . But if Boston were to say give us all 3 of there firsts to move up that would be a hard offer to turn down.

... I'd be open to a trade down or even trade out.

To me, a GM who trades out of a draft, any pick any draft, is a guy saying, "fire me; I'm no good at my job."

I can't think of a single trade out of a single draft where there was not a better player to take with the traded pick than the player received for that pick. There must be one; there's one of everything. But I can't think of one.

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[Ruzious]

I would also be VERY open to trading down 8-9 spots and getting a 1st next year. Okoro, Green, Vassell, Tyler Bey, Pokusevski, Reed, Anthony, etc.... on of them would be available.

That's a good idea. If we did that, I'd be looking more toward Saddiq Bey and Aaron Nesmith - though I'd definitely have an interest in Green and Tyler Bey. Hmm, Boston has 17 and 26. How bout this: We trade 9 and 37 to Boston for 17, 26, and Boston's 2021 1st - knowing Boston's going to have a low pick in 2021. Somebody good could slide to that 37th pick, but I think the chances are low. Reed probably will, but I think he's scrawnier than advertised, and he can't make up for it by being uber-athletic like Clark did last draft. We could get a decent player liked Payton Prichard there, but I'd rather not settle.

Who would others pick at 17 and 26? My choices?

Spoiler:

Nesmith at 17 and Tyler Bey at 26 (No chance TBey lasts till 37)

I'd do that trade in a minute, but I think it's a little much to ask -- a bit of a value stretch. Not completely out of the question but a bit unbalanced in our favor.

OTOH, what about our #9 for Boston's #17, #30, #46 & their R2 pick next year. We take Nesmith at #17, still get Bey @ #30, take Makur Maker at #37, & grab Xavier Tillman @ #46. Then we take the 2d coming of Draymond Green with their R2 pick next year! (gives us a year to figure out who that is...)

But... why stop there? we should also buy the #33 from Elton Brand & use it on Paul Reed if he's there or whoever our current favorite is in the R2 thread.

Let's see... that's Nesmith, Bey, Reed, Maker, Tillman, -- & an undrafted shooter of course. That's 6 guys -- my kind of draft!

That's fine, but there's a point where you can go too much for quantity over quality, and I think that's what happened there - 6 rookies in 1 year after what we did this season is overkill. You can't keep them all - much less develop them all. Boston's 2021 pick will be in the late 20's, so I don't think it's too much to ask for it rather than going for more 2nd round picks. Their 2021 2nd round pick will be right before UDFA's, so it essentially has no trade value. I think the value in my trade was perfectly fine for both teams - given where Boston's 2021 frp will likely be.

[payitforward]

I don't particularly like trading out either. I don't mind trading back but it has to be for real value....

That goes without saying, but you assume that you know who is "value." You don't. You're always taking some kind of chance -- at #9 or #17 or wherever.

I wonder how many times I'd have to post the facts before they sink in.... Over time, the #9 pick is not a better NBA player than the #15 pick. There is no meaningful statistical difference between the benefit of picking #9 & the benefit of picking #15. Period.

...I like 9 I. This draft someone's gonna fall maybe that someone is Wiseman maybe that someone is Deni? Idk. But I like the idea of getting 9 .

Yes, there will be someone to pick at #9. Also at #17. And @#30. Etc.

But if Boston were to say give us all 3 of there firsts to move up that would be a hard offer to turn down.

No kidding, really? Only that is way above fair value, so they aren't going to make that offer.

[Ruzious]

... I'd be open to a trade down or even trade out.

To me, a GM who trades out of a draft, any pick any draft, is a guy saying, "fire me; I'm no good at my job."

I can't think of a single trade out of a single draft where there was not a better player to take with the traded pick than the player received for that pick. There must be one; there's one of everything. But I can't think of one.

That seems too rigid. Doesn't it matter what you're trading out for?

[payitforward]

That's a good idea. If we did that, I'd be looking more toward Saddiq Bey and Aaron Nesmith - though I'd definitely have an interest in Green and Tyler Bey. Hmm, Boston has 17 and 26. How bout this: We trade 9 and 37 to Boston for 17, 26, and Boston's 2021 1st - knowing Boston's going to have a low pick in 2021. Somebody good could slide to that 37th pick, but I think the chances are low. Reed probably will, but I think he's scrawnier than advertised, and he can't make up for it by being uber-athletic like Clark did last draft. We could get a decent player liked Payton Prichard there, but I'd rather not settle.

Who would others pick at 17 and 26? My choices?

Spoiler:

Nesmith at 17 and Tyler Bey at 26 (No chance TBey lasts till 37)

I'd do that trade in a minute, but I think it's a little much to ask -- a bit of a value stretch. Not completely out of the question but a bit unbalanced in our favor.

OTOH, what about our #9 for Boston's #17, #30, #46 & their R2 pick next year. We take Nesmith at #17, still get Bey @ #30, take Makur Maker at #37, & grab Xavier Tillman @ #46. Then we take the 2d coming of Draymond Green with their R2 pick next year! (gives us a year to figure out who that is...)

But... why stop there? we should also buy the #33 from Elton Brand & use it on Paul Reed if he's there or whoever our current favorite is in the R2 thread.

Let's see... that's Nesmith, Bey, Reed, Maker, Tillman, -- & an undrafted shooter of course. That's 6 guys -- my kind of draft!

That's fine, but there's a point where you can go too much for quantity over quality, and I think that's what happened there - 6 rookies in 1 year after what we did this season is overkill. You can't keep them all - much less develop them all. ...

I don't agree that it's quantity over quality, since I still postulate getting Nesmith & Bey. But all the same -- of course!

There was some humorous intention in that post. Making fun of myself -- I say the same thing every year! I want 6 rookies! Obviously, no team can absorb 6 rookies a year... but I'm not letting that stop me, Ruz!

...Boston's 2021 pick will be in the late 20's, so I don't think it's too much to ask for it rather than going for more 2nd round picks. Their 2021 2nd round pick will be right before UDFA's, so it essentially has no trade value. I think the value in my trade was perfectly fine for both teams - given where Boston's 2021 frp will likely be.

Well, w/o doubt picks x next year is worth less than pick x this year -- just as a dollar someone gives me today is worth more than the fact that a year from now he's going to give me a dollar -- so it's all a matter of what that discount is from the present value of an asset.

I'd be delighted by that trade, of course, but if I'm Danny Ainge I don't think I would do it. I don't want that #37 pick this year enough to go for it. I'd be countering w/ 17 & 26 for 9 -- & then I'd give 46 too when pushed. That would leave me w/ 9 & 30 -- & I can't absorb more than 2 rookies anyway.

If I'm Tommy, I find it hard to say no to those 3 picks for #9. I might make the deal work so that I give a yes/no when I see who's there at 9. Just in case something weird happens & Okungwu falls -- or if I rate Haliburton or Hayes really high.

Anyway, whatever the exact deal is, a trade down looks both do-able & a good idea.

[Ruzious]

There was some humorous intention in that post. Making fun of myself -- I say the same thing every year! I want 6 rookies! Obviously, no team can absorb 6 rookies a year... but I'm not letting that stop me, Ruz!

Hey, if the intent is to make fun of you, then count me on board.

[gambitx777]

You think so? In a weak draft that might be 12 players deep? 17 22 and 30. For 9 and no future compensation? Sounds fair to me. Plus the Celtics are pretty.much bringing back that team next year. What do they need a center. There are about 4 good centers in this draft and 1 or two will be there at 9 they have a lot of young lower tried firsts on the team already it would make sense to bunch them to move up !

I don't particularly like trading out either. I don't mind trading back but it has to be for real value....

That goes without saying, but you assume that you know who is "value." You don't. You're always taking some kind of chance -- at #9 or #17 or wherever.

I wonder how many times I'd have to post the facts before they sink in.... Over time, the #9 pick is not a better NBA player than the #15 pick. There is no meaningful statistical difference between the benefit of picking #9 & the benefit of picking #15. Period.

...I like 9 I. This draft someone's gonna fall maybe that someone is Wiseman maybe that someone is Deni? Idk. But I like the idea of getting 9 .

Yes, there will be someone to pick at #9. Also at #17. And @#30. Etc.

But if Boston were to say give us all 3 of there firsts to move up that would be a hard offer to turn down.

No kidding, really? Only that is way above fair value, so they aren't going to make that offer.

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[queridiculo]

I'd like to see the Wizards parlay their pick into a couple of first rounders.

If Washington can come away with Jalen Smith and a guard prospect I'd be happy.

If they stick with their projected pick, the kiddo Killian Hayes playing in Germany is somebody I'd take a hard look at.

[payitforward]

There was some humorous intention in that post. Making fun of myself -- I say the same thing every year! I want 6 rookies! Obviously, no team can absorb 6 rookies a year... but I'm not letting that stop me, Ruz!

Hey, if the intent is to make fun of you, then count me on board.

I don't mind if you or anyone makes fun of me! Over the years I've come to understand how very much I deserve it! (I don't mean just here, btw!)

[payitforward]

You think so? In a weak draft that might be 12 players deep? 17 22 and 30. For 9 and no future compensation? Sounds fair to me....

Look... every single year people call it "a weak draft." & every single year more or less the same number of good NBA players come out of it. Except, once in a while, people say "this is a really deep draft," whereupon it turns out to be full of stiffs!

Neither you nor I nor anyone knows in advance how many good NBA players will be drafted this year nor just how good the good ones will be. Period. I've demonstrated this a whole bunch of times. You only know later, looking back.

Nor is the guy picked at #9 likely to be anywhere near the best player who was available at that spot. All you have to do is look at a few drafts to know that.

At random, 2014 -- 9 of the top 15 guys taken (including the #1 & #2 picks) are nowhere as good as 9 guys taken in R2. It's a version of the same thing every single year.

As to what "sounds fair" to you -- what does that mean? Show me a single trade akin to the one you suggest. There aren't any to show.

...Plus the Celtics are pretty much bringing back that team next year. What do they need a center. There are about 4 good centers in this draft and 1 or two will be there at 9 they have a lot of young lower tried firsts on the team already it would make sense to bunch them to move up !...

Sigh...

Not relevant. If they want to trade #s 17, 26 & 30 to move up, they can get better than the #9 for them. If, for some reason, it's the #9 that they want, they can get it for less than those 3 picks. Duh....!!!

[Jamaaliver]

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