SWedd523 wrote:The athleticism issues i have with Black
Black doesn't have athletic issues.
SWedd523 wrote:Stylistically I'm kind of out on Scoot. I don't think he distributes well enough... and i don't trust him enough as a shooter
He averaged nearly 8 assists per 75 possessions with a 2/1 assist/to ratio this season.
32.4% from the NBA 3pt line and 75% free throw as an 18/19 year old aren't terrible indicators. His shooting weakness is getting exaggerated by a lot of people.
we're gonna have to disagree on Black. He's going to be squarely in the "average" athletic category in the NBA.
I like him as a prospect, but not a top 5 prospect
SWedd523 wrote:The athleticism issues i have with Black
Black doesn't have athletic issues.
SWedd523 wrote:Stylistically I'm kind of out on Scoot. I don't think he distributes well enough... and i don't trust him enough as a shooter
He averaged nearly 8 assists per 75 possessions with a 2/1 assist/to ratio this season.
32.4% from the NBA 3pt line and 75% free throw as an 18/19 year old aren't terrible indicators. His shooting weakness is getting exaggerated by a lot of people.
we're gonna have to disagree on Black. He's going to be squarely in the "average" athletic category in the NBA.
I like him as a prospect, but not a top 5 prospect
@braggins do you think Black is going to be better than Giddey?
Braggins wrote:Black doesn't have athletic issues.
He averaged nearly 8 assists per 75 possessions with a 2/1 assist/to ratio this season.
32.4% from the NBA 3pt line and 75% free throw as an 18/19 year old aren't terrible indicators. His shooting weakness is getting exaggerated by a lot of people.
we're gonna have to disagree on Black. He's going to be squarely in the "average" athletic category in the NBA.
I like him as a prospect, but not a top 5 prospect
@braggins do you think Black is going to be better than Giddey?
Giddey is a better passer and has higher IQ than AB. Giddey is actually super special as a playmaker, whereas I rate AB as just very good at playmaking/IQ/feel. Giddey is also a bit bigger and we've already seen Giddey make some progress with his shooting (OKC has that legendary shooting coach). Giddey's biggest issue besides shooting is meh athleticism combined with not having an especially good handle makes it more difficult for him to create passing opportunities himself.
AB's advantage over Giddey is that he has a pretty big athletic advantage (stands out more on defense, but helps on both sides). AB has the potential to be a fantastic defensive player in the NBA. His point of attack defense is really good and he can guard 1-3 no problem. Giddey is more of a guy that you have to hide right now and at best projects to be at best an above average team defense guy long term. AB also is able to use his size and athleticism to create more pressure on the rim and finish/draw fouls and create passing opportunities.
I think overall they rate fairly similar. I'm pretty sure I had Giddey ranked 6th in his class and that was the other draft I really got into recently and actually ranked players.
I will say that I saw you earlier make a comparison to Giddey with the way AB attacks off the dribble. It was actually one of the first things I noticed about him as well, but I think your interpretation was a bit off. I think what you were seeing that reminded you of Giddey has to do with AB's simple ball handling and not his athleticism. He controls the ball fine, but doesn't really do anything advanced or fancy with the ball yet, especially at high speed. In the half court he just kind of drifts around with the ball (lulling you to sleep as you said) using screens and his eyes/passing threat to move defense around and then if he sees an opening he suddenly takes off with a simple straight line drive. Teams tend to sag off of him and hes not doing anything with the ball to create space, but still manages to get the rim fairly effectively and draw fouls because of his size/athleticism (above average to good athleticism imo, definitely not great). He stays upright with the ball when dribbling around the perimeter until he decides to drive, or has a defender on his back, and it literally looks incredibly similar to Giddey. I'm not sure if they do that so they can see over the defense and scan the floor better, or if its a bad ball handling habit, or maybe a bit of both.
Also want to say again that he sprained his ankle in his final game in the SEC tournament and was wearing a walking boot in between games in the NCAA tournament according to the announcers in their sweet 16 games. He had noticeably less burst/explosion in the NCAA tournament games.
SWedd523 wrote:I go back to my previous statement that perimeter guys need to be high end athletes to be great players. being a great shooter is nice but we need a guy who can get buckets in tight games.
Melo hasn't shown the ability to get fouls or beat his man consistently to get buckets. Adding another complimentary guy with a top 5 doesn't fix the main problems
You always try to get the most talented player in the draft regardless of fit or position as they will have the higher trade value. Give it a try and IF fit/position is an issue than trade for fit/position with higher value/more talented players meaning you will get better players that fit back in return.
Obviously if two players are very similar in terms of ability/talent then you can pick between them based on position or fit.
Rays Pompadour wrote:Jordan Hawkins has caught my attention. If he's not yet on your radar, he will be after the Final Four kicks off.
I'm praying he lasts until the Denver pick or we try to trade the Denver pick and our early second to try to move up to get him.
We need a good prototypical 2 guard. I think he would really complement Lamelo and he's a great shooter that would eat up the catch and shoot opportunities Lamelo would create for him.
He's the guy I see being the suprise riser into the mid/late lottery.
I don't think there is enough of a fit issue with Scoot to be too worried about it (unless you have him tied with someone and need a breaker).
His fit on defense with LaMelo is certainly something to worry about, but it shouldn't be any worse than the situation with Terry and Scoot is simply a much more talented player in general. Scoot has better defensive tools to work with compared to Rozier.
The fit on offense is good imo. I would think of it more like the Garland/Mitchell pairing, where its obviously not ideal on defense, but you make up for it elsewhere on the roster because the offensive talent is so dynamic. Adding Scoot would be more like adding a Donovan Mitchell level prospect in terms of size, talent, athleticism, but he would only cost one 1st round pick instead four + swaps + players, like it would have taken to get Mitchell. Scoots playstyle is a lot more oriented towards playmaking than Mitchell's, but I think thats good since LaMelo is such a dynamic shooter/scorer.
Edit:
I think Brandon Miller was playing through injury during the NCAA tournament. Either way, even with the late season slump, he still managed to shoot over 38% from 3pt on nearly 10 attempts per 75 possessions. He also managed a staggering +12 box +/- on the season as the best player on one of the best teams in the country, which is huge even for a 20 year old freshman. His nearly +8 offensive bpm also suggests his off-gravity had huge impact. He may not be as explosive or as good at on-ball creation as youd like for a premiere wing prospect, but his high volume 3pt shooting is a serious weapon for a player with his length and he plays defense.
Thought I'd add some positive views for a couple of guys people have been getting down on.
The criticism that's stuck with me is why his stats look underwhelming against G-League guys after 2 seasons going up against them. But then I remember saying much the same thing about LaMelo in the NBL....
Article has a lot of praise for Anthony Black, specifically his basketball IQ. If we don't pick in the top 3 I really hope AB is the target. He fits like a glove next to LaMelo in the backcourt.
wilson115 wrote:The criticism that's stuck with me is why his stats look underwhelming against G-League guys after 2 seasons going up against them.
He had the best season in terms of production of any GLeague Ignite prospect so far. His production was only really underwhelming if you are comparing him to Wemby as a potential number one pick, but that discussion has been long over. It wasn't good enough to indicate that hes a generational #1 that should be in discussion with Wemby like a lot of people thought before the season, but its good enough to indicate hes a good top 3 pick. I think people have been overly nitpicking his game and I think this specific criticism has been getting exaggerated a bit.
Article has a lot of praise for Anthony Black, specifically his basketball IQ. If we don't pick in the top 3 I really hope AB is the target. He fits like a glove next to LaMelo in the backcourt.
I thought this was spot on. I want to highlight one section that builds on a specific point I was making recently.
Ant Black is a fairly unique prospect in that many scouts don’t think of him as a great athlete, but his combo of speed and agility at his height allows him to get where he wants on the floor. Black has lived at the free-throw line this year and has shown off the bunnies with an abundance of dunks.
Even without a threatening jump shot, Black has been able to pressure the rim in ways that players who struggle to shoot shouldn’t be able to do. To put in perspective how impressive Black has been at getting into the paint this season, I went to Barttorvik to create a query identifying rim pressure and playmaking. Plugging in freshman prospects that have had an Assist%>20, Dunks>20, and Free Throw Rate>50 resulted in only three players accomplishing this feat since 2008. Those players were John Wall, Ben Simmons, and Anthony Black.
Article has a lot of praise for Anthony Black, specifically his basketball IQ. If we don't pick in the top 3 I really hope AB is the target. He fits like a glove next to LaMelo in the backcourt.
I thought this was spot on. I want to highlight one section that builds on a specific point I was making recently.
Ant Black is a fairly unique prospect in that many scouts don’t think of him as a great athlete, but his combo of speed and agility at his height allows him to get where he wants on the floor. Black has lived at the free-throw line this year and has shown off the bunnies with an abundance of dunks.
Even without a threatening jump shot, Black has been able to pressure the rim in ways that players who struggle to shoot shouldn’t be able to do. To put in perspective how impressive Black has been at getting into the paint this season, I went to Barttorvik to create a query identifying rim pressure and playmaking. Plugging in freshman prospects that have had an Assist%>20, Dunks>20, and Free Throw Rate>50 resulted in only three players accomplishing this feat since 2008. Those players were John Wall, Ben Simmons, and Anthony Black.
You could make the argument to me that Black should go number 3 over Miller. He's being undervalued by the mock draft sites. Like you said before he's what people hope the Thompson twins will be minus the twitchy athleticism. He does everything well except shooting. And it's not like he's a non-shooter either, we aren't talking about MKG here.
Article has a lot of praise for Anthony Black, specifically his basketball IQ. If we don't pick in the top 3 I really hope AB is the target. He fits like a glove next to LaMelo in the backcourt.
I thought this was spot on. I want to highlight one section that builds on a specific point I was making recently.
Ant Black is a fairly unique prospect in that many scouts don’t think of him as a great athlete, but his combo of speed and agility at his height allows him to get where he wants on the floor. Black has lived at the free-throw line this year and has shown off the bunnies with an abundance of dunks.
Even without a threatening jump shot, Black has been able to pressure the rim in ways that players who struggle to shoot shouldn’t be able to do. To put in perspective how impressive Black has been at getting into the paint this season, I went to Barttorvik to create a query identifying rim pressure and playmaking. Plugging in freshman prospects that have had an Assist%>20, Dunks>20, and Free Throw Rate>50 resulted in only three players accomplishing this feat since 2008. Those players were John Wall, Ben Simmons, and Anthony Black.
You could make the argument to me that Black should go number 3 over Miller. He's being undervalued by the mock draft sites. Like you said before he's what people hope the Thompson twins will be minus the twitchy athleticism. He does everything well except shooting. And it's not like he's a non-shooter either, we aren't talking about MKG here.
Agree. I had him #3 in my rankings for like half of the NCAA season. Miller had an insane run in the middle of the season, though.
I try not to knee-jerk react to a couple of games, so I'm not immediately downgrading Miller too much for the way he ended the season. I'm probably going to update my rankings one more time after the NCAA tournament ends and then take a break thinking about this draft so much for a bit lol. I'm still comfortable with Miller at #3, but am curious to see more deep analysis when things heat up closer to the draft.
Anthony Black is a really good prospect but seeing things such as "he's what people hope the Thompson twins will be minus the twitchy athleticism." That is like saying Kyle Anderson is like a less athletic Pascal Siakam. It can be true, but they can be totally different players because of the lack of athleticism. I like Blacks decision making, motor, passing iq and his aggressiveness to the rim as a prospect, but without the elite burst you have to wonder if that will be as effective in the NBA when being guarded by players his size more frequently. There aren't a ton of defenders in college that are equipped to guard a 6-7 primary ball handler, that is common nightly issue in the NBA. Blacks athleticism, shooting and lack of an elite handle really make me think he is suited for a secondary ball handler role at the next level. Which will highlight his shooting even more.
Amen Thompson has SGA level of quickness and size. Whereas Black is probably closer to a Caris Levert level of athlete.
Braggins wrote:I don't think there is enough of a fit issue with Scoot to be too worried about it (unless you have him tied with someone and need a breaker).
His fit on defense with LaMelo is certainly something to worry about, but it shouldn't be any worse than the situation with Terry and Scoot is simply a much more talented player in general. Scoot has better defensive tools to work with compared to Rozier.
The fit on offense is good imo. I would think of it more like the Garland/Mitchell pairing, where its obviously not ideal on defense, but you make up for it elsewhere on the roster because the offensive talent is so dynamic. Adding Scoot would be more like adding a Donovan Mitchell level prospect in terms of size, talent, athleticism, but he would only cost one 1st round pick instead four + swaps + players, like it would have taken to get Mitchell. Scoots playstyle is a lot more oriented towards playmaking than Mitchell's, but I think thats good since LaMelo is such a dynamic shooter/scorer.
Scoot Wingspan is rumored to be 6'9'' or 6'10'', but Rozier wingspan was measured at combine at 6'8'.25''. Not sure that is going to mean Scoot is a better defender. His defensive effort was pretty awful in the Gleague, which is whatever as he is just going through motions to get into the league.
I think Scoot will be a better pro than Rozier like everyone else, but is it a big enough upgrade to use a top 3 pick on him? Rozier would likely still be on the roster even if we draft Scoot so that would be our 3 guard rotation? Even if we do end up trading Rozier our backcourt defense is still going to be bad with Scoot and LaMelo. Then you have to figure out a way to play a low volume 3 pt shooter next to LaMelo at a guard spot at least until his shooting improves. Donovan is 10x the shooter that Scoot is, Scoot shoots like 2.5 threes per game total. Mitchell shoots 9.4 threes per game.
I would be higher on Scoot if he could come in and play his natural position, but there are just too many questions for me personally if the move would work. Reminds me of the Gobert and Towns situation, on paper you can write it out and make it make sense, but deep down you still have serious doubts about the pairing.
Also, I really don't understand the Taylor Hendricks top 5 hype lately. He is a super solid prospect and I think he can be a really interesting stretch 4, small ball center at the next level, but where is the upside on the pick?
He isn't a guy that puts it on the floor and creates for himself or others. Seems like you are hoping for a guy that plays stylistically like a PJ Washington or John Collins, but just is better defensively. Great pick at 10-14 IMO, but I just don't really see a player in the league he becomes that is worth that high of a pick.
