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2025 NBA Draft Prospect Part 3

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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Prospect Part 3 

Post#821 » by PhilBlackson » Fri Feb 21, 2025 1:36 am

Jerry Lucas wrote:
Spoiler:
PhilBlackson wrote:I like Isaiah Evans but we have total logjam at SG with RJ, JaKobe, Gradey & Ochai (hopefully he's used to trade into mid 1st or so for Rasheer).

With Davion traded away, I think MILES BYRD should be at the top of our board in the 2nd round.

A 6'7 PG who can shoot, play in a similar style to IQ offensively but is a helluva defender!! Watch how this kid defends. Masai has been looking for a taller PG before with LaMelo, Dyson etc. Obviously not the same players, had different strengths and I'll say obv LaMelo is by far the most naturally talented but nonetheless I think it's the most effective use of our 2nd round pick and if we do happen to take a C (or fluke into the top 3 for a SF) with our own pick, we have the potential to have a huge lineup to match up with the top teams in the East.


Man I was waiting for someone else to mention this guy. I thought I was on an island when I brought up his name before. By the way PhilBlackson, are you still a fan of Derik Queen? Me and you were the conductors of that train early in the season but now it seems like I'm on an island with him.


Sorry for the late reply but obv we all get caught up with our lives outside of this forum lol but as for Queen, I LOVE his game one way or the other and I'm confident he's gonna be a really good player, I'm not saying guaranteed all-star and obv not superstar. BUT I think he has too good of a skill set and more importantly a FEEL FOR THE GAME that you can't teach, that I'm all but certain he's gonna be at least an above average starter long term ie/ I think he would have the overall impact/level of player of Poeltl and tbt I think that's selling him quite short because he just has so much more to his game).

It's ALL about his wingspan for me to love him for OUR pick or not though. I'm differentiating loving him as a player in this draft and loving him for our pick because....IF his wingspan is what has been rumored (ie/ 7-7'1) then I don't love him as much for us specifically because then he's arguably going to have to be played at PF like the guys I think his strengths resemble (ie/ Sabonis, Sengun). Although Queen would still have an inch or two longer wingspan than either (Sabonis 6'10.25, Sengun 6'11). I'd say ideally I'd like to know his wingspan is closer to 7'3+ because then I'd be good with using him C and that would be the IDEAL use for him on this roster and he would also be the IDEAL C for us as he could be a hub since we love passing big men & he's an even better passer than Yak (understatement) and of course he's money from mid range to the post and showing obvious potential to add a solid 3 ball. But if it's 7-7'1 and he struggles to actually handle Cs then it's gonna be tough because I think Scottie is really a PF (power/pointforward) so it would get too clunky if we still had to add a C on top of that.

But as for him as a player, one way or the other I think he's gonna a steal for someone because people keep sleeping on him and all he does is produce. He drops 20 & 15 so routinely people barely bat an eye and anytime there were games amongst the best of his class (Jordan, McDonalds) Queen was consistently one of the two or three best players each game. Heck he went to Rutgers and bodied Harper and Ace, no one said a damn thing lol but he just keeps doing it. Not to mention he's way underrated as a defender, not saying he's a great one but he's not bad like people pre-judge him on his appearance to be, he's also much quicker than I think most people realize. So yeah I REALLY like him but for us to take him he's gonna have to measure out so that the long term fit doesn't get too clunky. But if that wingspan is 7'3+ and we're not in the top 4, I'm taking him....and sorry because I can already feel it coming from whatever random hater, I'm NOT saying he WILL be at Sabonis or Sengun's level with certainty but I do think he has the skill set to BECOME something LIKE that....and one last sidebar, man I hope he doesn't end up with OKC or that will be an embarrassment of riches.
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Prospect Part 3 

Post#822 » by Indeed » Fri Feb 21, 2025 2:16 am

Flush wrote:
ForeverTFC wrote:Was listening to Vecceni's latest mock and they said the middle of the lottery doesn't have middle of the lottery talent. Is it true that 5-14 is pretty weak this year?


I don't know if I necessarily agree but based on their mock picks after the top 5 it does feel like they felt the prospects were more likely to succeed based on whom they were drafted to rather than just based on their own individual talents (like CMB to Bulls, Richardson to Heat, etc)

Obviously an organizations ability to recognize talent and fit matters a lot but I do feel like the talent in the lottery is quite good as long as you manage expectations


They have Queen, Fears outside of the lottery, and they never select defensive 2-way wings that has higher ceiling, but more claiming on current needs based on teams and player current stats/contribution, which is obviously selling short of the draft from the ceiling perspective. In many drafts, teams would draft a ceiling over needs.

Someone like Carter Bryant, Drake Powell would be in the 1st round in most draft. This draft has many unique players, and their quality is very high from the teens to end of 1st.
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Prospect Part 3 

Post#823 » by RoteSchroder » Fri Feb 21, 2025 3:17 am

Assuming we don't get any of the fancy names..cause we're Toronto:

1) Draft Tre Johnson (or VJ)

2) Assuming Danny Wolf is available at Orlando's highest pick, trade Gradey + Ochai for Goga + Wolf. (Gradey and Tre are redundant. Ochai will be looking for his new contract in a couple years)

3) Draft Miles Byrd with the 2nd rounder.

Depth chart:

Poeltl / Goga
Scottie / Wolf / Mogbo
Ingram / Ja'Kobe
RJ / Tre / Byrd
IQ / Shead
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Prospect Part 3 

Post#824 » by REJECTEDBYCLARK » Fri Feb 21, 2025 3:17 am

sengun was .674 on 2pt shots and sabonis was .621 while having both been younger (sengun significantly younger). 2pt% is an important marker for bigs and queen does not touch those guys at .587. both were stronger rebounders as well.
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Prospect Part 3 

Post#825 » by Yallbecrazy » Fri Feb 21, 2025 3:17 am

earthtone wrote:
Yallbecrazy wrote:Lebron was an elite prospect who also hit his 97-99th percentile outcome in my opinion.
Personally I think Luka was a better prospect who hit somewhere around 60-70th percentile outcome.
Lebron had 0 jumper and 0 post skills entering the NBA.
Flagg is not at the level of Lebron as a prospect, but I wouldn't say he's far off.
I was talking about archetype previously. He's an incredible athlete, with great feel for the game and bbiq. He's not as athletic as Lebron obviously, and not the same passer either. However he is damn good at both, and more polished.
When you factor in age, play style, and durability concerns I think Flagg is pretty close to Zion. I think he's one of the top 5 prospects in the last 20 years.

.... what?? Luka is 25, has been 1st team All-NBA five times, and has already led his team to 2x Conference Finals and a Finals appearance. He was a truly special prospect, but in what world is he only at his 60-70th percentile outcome?


He could have dieted better and taken care of his body better. Imagine him with Lebron's training program. I also thought he might be a little better from 3pt, especially catch and shoot 3s than he has been. Rest of his game is probably in the 95th percentile+ of outcomes, but I doubt we ever see another player capable of being a Euroleague / La Liga MVP at 18 in the next 50 years. In my opinion he was a better prospect than Lebron, but Lebron hit a much higher outcome.
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Prospect Part 3 

Post#826 » by REJECTEDBYCLARK » Fri Feb 21, 2025 3:31 am

actually there have been entire prospects that have been missed on like daniel gafford bc people don't respect 2pt% as a marker enough. that combined w his athleticism and solid WS should have sold more peeps given his rebounding and stock production.

i'd say it's also why kalkbrenner is a great bet to return some vorp in the nba despite his age. he's an absolute lunatic from 2 with size, and good enough REB+STK.
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Prospect Part 3 

Post#827 » by LoveMyRaps » Fri Feb 21, 2025 3:35 am

another great game for Queen

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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Prospect Part 3 

Post#828 » by BoyzNTheHood » Fri Feb 21, 2025 3:35 am

REJECTEDBYCLARK wrote:actually there have been entire prospects that have been missed on like daniel gafford bc people don't respect 2pt% as a marker enough. that combined w his athleticism and solid WS should have sold more peeps given his rebounding and stock production.

i'd say it's also why kalkbrenner is a great bet to return some vorp in the nba despite his age. he's an absolute lunatic from 2 with size, and good enough REB+STK.

If Edey can make it, so can Kalkbrenner. I’d love him at the Portland pick, but I feel like the Lakers might snatch him at the end of the first when someone is ordered to give them a pick for scraps.
deeps6x wrote:I guarantee you that (Jaylen) Brown and (Kris) Dunn are drafted OUT of the top 5.
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Prospect Part 3 

Post#829 » by RoteSchroder » Fri Feb 21, 2025 4:57 am

BoyzNTheHood wrote:
REJECTEDBYCLARK wrote:actually there have been entire prospects that have been missed on like daniel gafford bc people don't respect 2pt% as a marker enough. that combined w his athleticism and solid WS should have sold more peeps given his rebounding and stock production.

i'd say it's also why kalkbrenner is a great bet to return some vorp in the nba despite his age. he's an absolute lunatic from 2 with size, and good enough REB+STK.

If Edey can make it, so can Kalkbrenner. I’d love him at the Portland pick, but I feel like the Lakers might snatch him at the end of the first when someone is ordered to give them a pick for scraps.


Kalk has slower lane agility than Edey, might be a bit tough to play him against teams with a lot of movement

Edey also seems underutilized offensively, or is he just too slow on O? At his size, I feel like he should be man handling half the C’s in the league
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Prospect Part 3 

Post#830 » by earthtone » Fri Feb 21, 2025 5:02 am

Yallbecrazy wrote:
earthtone wrote:
Yallbecrazy wrote:Lebron was an elite prospect who also hit his 97-99th percentile outcome in my opinion.
Personally I think Luka was a better prospect who hit somewhere around 60-70th percentile outcome.
Lebron had 0 jumper and 0 post skills entering the NBA.
Flagg is not at the level of Lebron as a prospect, but I wouldn't say he's far off.
I was talking about archetype previously. He's an incredible athlete, with great feel for the game and bbiq. He's not as athletic as Lebron obviously, and not the same passer either. However he is damn good at both, and more polished.
When you factor in age, play style, and durability concerns I think Flagg is pretty close to Zion. I think he's one of the top 5 prospects in the last 20 years.

.... what?? Luka is 25, has been 1st team All-NBA five times, and has already led his team to 2x Conference Finals and a Finals appearance. He was a truly special prospect, but in what world is he only at his 60-70th percentile outcome?


He could have dieted better and taken care of his body better. Imagine him with Lebron's training program. I also thought he might be a little better from 3pt, especially catch and shoot 3s than he has been. Rest of his game is probably in the 95th percentile+ of outcomes, but I doubt we ever see another player capable of being a Euroleague / La Liga MVP at 18 in the next 50 years. In my opinion he was a better prospect than Lebron, but Lebron hit a much higher outcome.

I definitely agree with that, any 18 year old who wins MVP of Euroleague is a generational prospect. Not gonna comment on who was the better prospect between him and Lebron because I was way too young to have opinions on Lebron, but there's just no way that current Luka is only his 60-70th percentile outcome. He's only 25 and if he retired today he'd be a Hall of Famer, that's the top 1% of outcomes for any prospect, no matter how decorated they are pre-draft.
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Prospect Part 3 

Post#831 » by mdenny » Fri Feb 21, 2025 10:54 am

Yallbecrazy wrote:Lebron was an elite prospect who also hit his 97-99th percentile outcome in my opinion.
Personally I think Luka was a better prospect who hit somewhere around 60-70th percentile outcome.
Lebron had 0 jumper and 0 post skills entering the NBA.
Flagg is not at the level of Lebron as a prospect, but I wouldn't say he's far off.
I was talking about archetype previously. He's an incredible athlete, with great feel for the game and bbiq. He's not as athletic as Lebron obviously, and not the same passer either. However he is damn good at both, and more polished.
When you factor in age, play style, and durability concerns I think Flagg is pretty close to Zion. I think he's one of the top 5 prospects in the last 20 years.


I ask: what skill or attribute do you project Flagg to be top 5 across the NBA league?

Flagg not far off from lebron? Sorry bro....you are caught up in the hype. That's just nuts. How old were you when lebron was drafted? (I have to ask)

I was just a kid when magic/bird were drafted. Jordan didn't have hype.

The 3 biggest hyped first overalls in my adult life have been Greg Oden, lebron and Wemby. And lebron was far more hyped than either of oden or wemby.

I perceive ALOT less hype with Flagg than there was with Zion. And it's probably because of what I point out....what is he gonna be GREAT at when playing in the nba? Like top 5 great. One could easily have projected zion as a top 5 post player.

If Ak47 is the player comp than that's fine. AK47 wasn't top 5 in any particular facet of the game. Might not have even been top 10 in any facet. He was an elite role player.
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Prospect Part 3 

Post#832 » by Yallbecrazy » Fri Feb 21, 2025 11:32 am

mdenny wrote:
Yallbecrazy wrote:Lebron was an elite prospect who also hit his 97-99th percentile outcome in my opinion.
Personally I think Luka was a better prospect who hit somewhere around 60-70th percentile outcome.
Lebron had 0 jumper and 0 post skills entering the NBA.
Flagg is not at the level of Lebron as a prospect, but I wouldn't say he's far off.
I was talking about archetype previously. He's an incredible athlete, with great feel for the game and bbiq. He's not as athletic as Lebron obviously, and not the same passer either. However he is damn good at both, and more polished.
When you factor in age, play style, and durability concerns I think Flagg is pretty close to Zion. I think he's one of the top 5 prospects in the last 20 years.


I ask: what skill or attribute do you project Flagg to be top 5 across the NBA league?

Flagg not far off from lebron? Sorry bro....you are caught up in the hype. That's just nuts. How old were you when lebron was drafted? (I have to ask)

I was just a kid when magic/bird were drafted. Jordan didn't have hype.

The 3 biggest hyped first overalls in my adult life have been Greg Oden, lebron and Wemby. And lebron was far more hyped than either of oden or wemby.


17 when Lebron was drafted, I remember the hype. I also remember people saying that Darko had better long term potential than Lebron. I'm also trying to be objective in my analysis and adding that it was my opinion and not overall hype. Lebron was in the 99.9th percentile in terms of size/athleticism which lead to a lot of the hype. He also had an incredible bbiq, but was also a high schooler so it is probably tough to know just how great his bbiq was. As a rookie in the NBA he struggled a bit in the half court when defenses just backed off and dared him to shoot.

He had extreme outlier size/athleticism, and extreme outlier bbiq/ work ethic which is actually really hard to measure, especially in high schoolers. Very good handle, but very poor shooting. It's also incredibly difficult to project high schoolers as #1 RSCI guys as many fall off. Cade Cunningham and Andrew Wiggns were probably the most decorated high schoolers I remember in the last decade and after seeing Cade in college for a year wasn't in my top 4.

Cooper Flagg probably had similar amounts of hype as Cade, but in his year of college has shown to be a far superior prospect.

If Flagg was a year older with the same production he'd still be my runaway #1, a full two years older and he's still solidly #1. 3 years older and he's still in contention to be #1 for me.

Looking back I would have Luka, Wemby, and AD ahead of Flagg as prospects and Zion close to him.
I wasn't into numbers and drafting until the 2013-2014 NBA Draft when Dean on Draft and a few others were posting on 2+2 their opinions and backing it up with numbers and comparables and then became much more into it when I realized they were better at projecting talent than every site out there. A bunch of them got hired by NBA front offices, Dean I presume wasn't because of how outspoken he was and other personality factors that might have made working with him difficult.
Looking at Oden and how much I value certain numbers I probably wouldn't have been super high on him at that time. (center with lowish steals and terrible assists/turnovers).

Hard for me to project one specific thing for Flagg, he could be a top 5 wing defender in the league. He could also end up being a top 20 offensive player that he does the Kawhi and Lebron thing of coasting on D to save energy for offense.
The archetype to me is an early Lakers Lebron James who was still a top 5-10 player. The fact he is so young and still so productive over so many categories is what gets me excited for him.
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Prospect Part 3 

Post#833 » by Indeed » Fri Feb 21, 2025 12:48 pm

RoteSchroder wrote:
BoyzNTheHood wrote:
REJECTEDBYCLARK wrote:actually there have been entire prospects that have been missed on like daniel gafford bc people don't respect 2pt% as a marker enough. that combined w his athleticism and solid WS should have sold more peeps given his rebounding and stock production.

i'd say it's also why kalkbrenner is a great bet to return some vorp in the nba despite his age. he's an absolute lunatic from 2 with size, and good enough REB+STK.

If Edey can make it, so can Kalkbrenner. I’d love him at the Portland pick, but I feel like the Lakers might snatch him at the end of the first when someone is ordered to give them a pick for scraps.


Kalk has slower lane agility than Edey, might be a bit tough to play him against teams with a lot of movement

Edey also seems underutilized offensively, or is he just too slow on O? At his size, I feel like he should be man handling half the C’s in the league


Kalkbrenner has a borderline shot blocking C wingspan at 7'5, while Edey has an elite wingspan at 7'10, that is definitely not the same in terms of defense.
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Prospect Part 3 

Post#834 » by ATLTimekeeper » Fri Feb 21, 2025 1:00 pm

mdenny wrote:
Yallbecrazy wrote:Lebron was an elite prospect who also hit his 97-99th percentile outcome in my opinion.
Personally I think Luka was a better prospect who hit somewhere around 60-70th percentile outcome.
Lebron had 0 jumper and 0 post skills entering the NBA.
Flagg is not at the level of Lebron as a prospect, but I wouldn't say he's far off.
I was talking about archetype previously. He's an incredible athlete, with great feel for the game and bbiq. He's not as athletic as Lebron obviously, and not the same passer either. However he is damn good at both, and more polished.
When you factor in age, play style, and durability concerns I think Flagg is pretty close to Zion. I think he's one of the top 5 prospects in the last 20 years.


I ask: what skill or attribute do you project Flagg to be top 5 across the NBA league?

Flagg not far off from lebron? Sorry bro....you are caught up in the hype. That's just nuts. How old were you when lebron was drafted? (I have to ask)

I was just a kid when magic/bird were drafted. Jordan didn't have hype.

The 3 biggest hyped first overalls in my adult life have been Greg Oden, lebron and Wemby. And lebron was far more hyped than either of oden or wemby.

I perceive ALOT less hype with Flagg than there was with Zion. And it's probably because of what I point out....what is he gonna be GREAT at when playing in the nba? Like top 5 great. One could easily have projected zion as a top 5 post player.

If Ak47 is the player comp than that's fine. AK47 wasn't top 5 in any particular facet of the game. Might not have even been top 10 in any facet. He was an elite role player.


Shaq was more hyped than all of them.

AK47 is ridiculous. He was not only incapable of showing up every night, but he couldn't run an offense like Flagg has done at Duke. Also the top 5 attritbute/skill is not a good way to argue for a top player. What was Tim Duncan's top 5 skill? He was great because of his rebounding? What was KG's top 5 skill? You can be great without dominating any particular aspect of the game.

I would bet you couldn't find a single wing/forward prospect in the last 30 years as well-rounded as Cooper, which is what makes him special. There just aren't significant holes in his game. He's producing close to the level of Grant Hill as a senior, meanwhile he will be LeBron's age when he entered the league.
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Prospect Part 3 

Post#835 » by mdenny » Fri Feb 21, 2025 2:25 pm

Yallbecrazy wrote:
mdenny wrote:
Yallbecrazy wrote:Lebron was an elite prospect who also hit his 97-99th percentile outcome in my opinion.
Personally I think Luka was a better prospect who hit somewhere around 60-70th percentile outcome.
Lebron had 0 jumper and 0 post skills entering the NBA.
Flagg is not at the level of Lebron as a prospect, but I wouldn't say he's far off.
I was talking about archetype previously. He's an incredible athlete, with great feel for the game and bbiq. He's not as athletic as Lebron obviously, and not the same passer either. However he is damn good at both, and more polished.
When you factor in age, play style, and durability concerns I think Flagg is pretty close to Zion. I think he's one of the top 5 prospects in the last 20 years.


I ask: what skill or attribute do you project Flagg to be top 5 across the NBA league?

Flagg not far off from lebron? Sorry bro....you are caught up in the hype. That's just nuts. How old were you when lebron was drafted? (I have to ask)

I was just a kid when magic/bird were drafted. Jordan didn't have hype.

The 3 biggest hyped first overalls in my adult life have been Greg Oden, lebron and Wemby. And lebron was far more hyped than either of oden or wemby.


17 when Lebron was drafted, I remember the hype. I also remember people saying that Darko had better long term potential than Lebron. I'm also trying to be objective in my analysis and adding that it was my opinion and not overall hype. Lebron was in the 99.9th percentile in terms of size/athleticism which lead to a lot of the hype. He also had an incredible bbiq, but was also a high schooler so it is probably tough to know just how great his bbiq was. As a rookie in the NBA he struggled a bit in the half court when defenses just backed off and dared him to shoot.

He had extreme outlier size/athleticism, and extreme outlier bbiq/ work ethic which is actually really hard to measure, especially in high schoolers. Very good handle, but very poor shooting. It's also incredibly difficult to project high schoolers as #1 RSCI guys as many fall off. Cade Cunningham and Andrew Wiggns were probably the most decorated high schoolers I remember in the last decade and after seeing Cade in college for a year wasn't in my top 4.

Cooper Flagg probably had similar amounts of hype as Cade, but in his year of college has shown to be a far superior prospect.

If Flagg was a year older with the same production he'd still be my runaway #1, a full two years older and he's still solidly #1. 3 years older and he's still in contention to be #1 for me.

Looking back I would have Luka, Wemby, and AD ahead of Flagg as prospects and Zion close to him.
I wasn't into numbers and drafting until the 2013-2014 NBA Draft when Dean on Draft and a few others were posting on 2+2 their opinions and backing it up with numbers and comparables and then became much more into it when I realized they were better at projecting talent than every site out there. A bunch of them got hired by NBA front offices, Dean I presume wasn't because of how outspoken he was and other personality factors that might have made working with him difficult.
Looking at Oden and how much I value certain numbers I probably wouldn't have been super high on him at that time. (center with lowish steals and terrible assists/turnovers).

Hard for me to project one specific thing for Flagg, he could be a top 5 wing defender in the league. He could also end up being a top 20 offensive player that he does the Kawhi and Lebron thing of coasting on D to save energy for offense.
The archetype to me is an early Lakers Lebron James who was still a top 5-10 player. The fact he is so young and still so productive over so many categories is what gets me excited for him.



I appreciate this response but I perceive it as hyperbole.

So top 5 wing defender like say....Paul George? I could deal with that.

In fact...what about Paul George as a player comparison?(I think there is a very small chance Flagg is ever as good as Paul George in his prime)

I don't see Flagg's handle as good as Paul George. His 3 is not as smooth in mechanics. Perhaps his defense is similar.

Th one x factor I see is his intensity and work ethic. So if he ends up being a gym rat type of guy....I can see him getting better and better each year.

But I think he is gonna fall flat in his first 3 months in the league. And I mean FLAT. and it'll be because there is someone on every team that is better than him at each facet of the game. He don't specialize in anything.

Can you at least see what I mean by that? The jack of all trades prospects often fall flat because they have no particular thing to fall back on. Yes, lebron was a jack of all trades prospect too....but he was an anomaly. Flagg is not an anomaly.

One last thing....when I hear ppl try to downplay the hype of Greg Oden....it just reaffirms to me that the prospect draft hype is just such a here today/gone tomorrow trend-driven phenomenon. Drafting Greg Oden at that time was generally assumed as being assured multiple championships. Everyone loves to talk NOW about how "they never believed in oden".

That is literally like trying to hear someone say "I wouldn't have taken Wemby first overall" 15 years from now if injuries plague his career. That **** just screams dishonesty to me. Oden was so dominant in the NCAA tournament....it seemed like it was impossible for his team to lose. The stats won't show the story because there's no stat that measures how scared the opposing team was to shoot anywhere within 15 feet of the bucket.

It's not how many blocks he had. It's how many shots the opposition didn't take because he was there. If he had fulfilled his potential...he would've been more dominant than Shaq.
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Prospect Part 3 

Post#836 » by Yallbecrazy » Fri Feb 21, 2025 2:44 pm

mdenny wrote:
Yallbecrazy wrote:
mdenny wrote:
I ask: what skill or attribute do you project Flagg to be top 5 across the NBA league?

Flagg not far off from lebron? Sorry bro....you are caught up in the hype. That's just nuts. How old were you when lebron was drafted? (I have to ask)

I was just a kid when magic/bird were drafted. Jordan didn't have hype.

The 3 biggest hyped first overalls in my adult life have been Greg Oden, lebron and Wemby. And lebron was far more hyped than either of oden or wemby.


17 when Lebron was drafted, I remember the hype. I also remember people saying that Darko had better long term potential than Lebron. I'm also trying to be objective in my analysis and adding that it was my opinion and not overall hype. Lebron was in the 99.9th percentile in terms of size/athleticism which lead to a lot of the hype. He also had an incredible bbiq, but was also a high schooler so it is probably tough to know just how great his bbiq was. As a rookie in the NBA he struggled a bit in the half court when defenses just backed off and dared him to shoot.

He had extreme outlier size/athleticism, and extreme outlier bbiq/ work ethic which is actually really hard to measure, especially in high schoolers. Very good handle, but very poor shooting. It's also incredibly difficult to project high schoolers as #1 RSCI guys as many fall off. Cade Cunningham and Andrew Wiggns were probably the most decorated high schoolers I remember in the last decade and after seeing Cade in college for a year wasn't in my top 4.

Cooper Flagg probably had similar amounts of hype as Cade, but in his year of college has shown to be a far superior prospect.

If Flagg was a year older with the same production he'd still be my runaway #1, a full two years older and he's still solidly #1. 3 years older and he's still in contention to be #1 for me.

Looking back I would have Luka, Wemby, and AD ahead of Flagg as prospects and Zion close to him.
I wasn't into numbers and drafting until the 2013-2014 NBA Draft when Dean on Draft and a few others were posting on 2+2 their opinions and backing it up with numbers and comparables and then became much more into it when I realized they were better at projecting talent than every site out there. A bunch of them got hired by NBA front offices, Dean I presume wasn't because of how outspoken he was and other personality factors that might have made working with him difficult.
Looking at Oden and how much I value certain numbers I probably wouldn't have been super high on him at that time. (center with lowish steals and terrible assists/turnovers).

Hard for me to project one specific thing for Flagg, he could be a top 5 wing defender in the league. He could also end up being a top 20 offensive player that he does the Kawhi and Lebron thing of coasting on D to save energy for offense.
The archetype to me is an early Lakers Lebron James who was still a top 5-10 player. The fact he is so young and still so productive over so many categories is what gets me excited for him.



I appreciate this response but I perceive it as hyperbole.

So top 5 wing defender like say....Paul George? I could deal with that.

In fact...what about Paul George as a player comparison?(I think there is a very small chance Flagg is ever as good as Paul George in his prime)

I don't see Flagg's handle as good as Paul George. His 3 is not as smooth in mechanics. Perhaps his defense is similar.

Th one x factor I see is his intensity and work ethic. So if he ends up being a gym rat type of guy....I can see him getting better and better each year.

But I think he is gonna fall flat in his first 3 months in the league. And I mean FLAT. and it'll be because there is someone on every team that is better than him at each facet of the game. He don't specialize in anything.

Can you at least see what I mean by that? The jack of all trades prospects often fall flat because they have no particular thing to fall back on. Yes, lebron was a jack of all trades prospect too....but he was an anomaly. Flagg is not an anomaly.

One last thing....when I hear ppl try to downplay the hype of Greg Oden....it just reaffirms to me that the prospect draft hype is just such a here today/gone tomorrow trend-driven phenomenon. Drafting Greg Oden at that time was generally assumed as being assured multiple championships. Everyone loves to talk NOW about how "they never believed in oden".

That is literally like trying to hear someone say "I wouldn't have taken Wemby first overall" 15 years from now if injuries plague his career. That **** just screams dishonesty to me. Oden was so dominant in the NCAA tournament....it seemed like it was impossible for his team to lose.


I don't disagree about the hype of Oden, but looking at the predictor stats I look at now he would not have been high up for me, but it's difficult to compare across eras as the game has changed a lot in the last 10 years, let alone 18. I wasn't into those things back then though, I'm trying to look objectively at previous prospects from a statistical standpoint. Traditional post scoring bigs were en vogue back then with Shaq and even Roy Hibbert. You needed one to score AND defend against the other team's post scoring centre. We now realize that bbiq is more important than size/length as a center.

His team probably should have lost to Tennessee in the elite 8, but it's hard for me to remember 17 years ago exactly.

Paul George is a decent comparison as an archetype, but Flagg is a far superior prospect. George played in the WAC which is pretty terrible and had similar shooting stats across two years, and similar stocks and rebounds. Flagg is much younger, committing a full less foul per 40, has a higher free throw rate, and shows far superior assists with fewer turnovers.
Paul George obviously hit a pretty high percentile outcome in the NBA, 90%+, but Flagg has a significantly higher starting point as a prospect.

Edit: To add, looking back at Marcus Smart he crushed the indicators I like to look at, but probably only hit his 10th percentile outcome, maybe less if you remove injuries. He also never improved once he got into the league. He would have been my #1 over Embiid when I try to look back at that draft objectively.
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Prospect Part 3 

Post#837 » by REJECTEDBYCLARK » Fri Feb 21, 2025 2:46 pm

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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Prospect Part 3 

Post#838 » by DreamTeam09 » Fri Feb 21, 2025 3:05 pm

Making the case for Khaman

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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Prospect Part 3 

Post#839 » by Psubs » Fri Feb 21, 2025 3:09 pm

RoteSchroder wrote:
BoyzNTheHood wrote:
REJECTEDBYCLARK wrote:actually there have been entire prospects that have been missed on like daniel gafford bc people don't respect 2pt% as a marker enough. that combined w his athleticism and solid WS should have sold more peeps given his rebounding and stock production.

i'd say it's also why kalkbrenner is a great bet to return some vorp in the nba despite his age. he's an absolute lunatic from 2 with size, and good enough REB+STK.

If Edey can make it, so can Kalkbrenner. I’d love him at the Portland pick, but I feel like the Lakers might snatch him at the end of the first when someone is ordered to give them a pick for scraps.


Kalk has slower lane agility than Edey, might be a bit tough to play him against teams with a lot of movement

Edey also seems underutilized offensively, or is he just too slow on O? At his size, I feel like he should be man handling half the C’s in the league


Exactly. Kalkbrenner would still be a decent backup C.
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Re: 2025 NBA Draft Prospect Part 3 

Post#840 » by Psubs » Fri Feb 21, 2025 3:15 pm

DreamTeam09 wrote:Making the case for Khaman

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https://www.sportskeeda.com/basketball/2025-nba-draft-top-5-centers-ft-khaman-maluach-alex-condon
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