Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 3

[dckingsfan]

I also think Coach Kidd is in for a helluva time trying to keep aging players happy. KG is old. He and Pierce aren't what they used to be or they'd still be Celtics. Boston killed it getting draft picks forever for those two players. Kirilenko can't help them on the bench. He won't get minutes over other players at PF or SF. Joe Johnson has played with Pierce in the past, but now will he share the basketball. Pierce was the man in Boston way back in 2001-2002, when Joe Johnson was a rookie. http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2002.html Things are different now.

I think Brooklyn will not only have an new coach who's never had to manage egos and be THE coach; but they'll also have old dogs trying to learn new tricks as role players. When will Mason Plumlee play? Who's going to defend the perimeter? Deron Williams?

I don't think Brooklyn's going to be a world-beater, but they do have guys to challenge even Miami.

CCJ, I don't think I am feeling you on this one... I think that Kidd will be able to figure it out. Garnett is not going to play in back to backs... so that will help. Pierce is going to play < 30 min/gm.

PG: Williams, Livingston, Terry
SG: Johnson, Terry, Pierce
SF: Pierce, Kirilenko
PF: Garnett, Kirlenko, Evans
C: Lopez, Blatche, Plumlee

When Garnett rests...

PG: Williams, Livingston, Terry
SG: Johnson, Terry, Pierce
SF: Pierce, Kirilenko, Johnson
PF: Kirlenko, Evans, Blatche
C: Lopez, Blatche, Plumlee

So, I think he can make it work... and I think that Garnett and Pierce will add some toughness.

But you are right, it is a small window.

[dckingsfan]

I like what Atlanta did this offseason. I think they've got a sneaky good roster and I think they're a playoff team with a healthy Horford.

I don't - I really think they should have figured out a way to get a C to play next to Horford.

Horford is a rock solid C himself. He's played C for 6 years now and done so well. He's the reason why they didn't miss a beat after Joe Johnson was traded. IMO, he was a much more important piece to the puzzle than Smith.

I'd also prefer Millsap to Smith although Atlanta may certainly miss Smith's defensive impact. Overall I think they're as good as they've been in the past.

Yeah, I don't think I am with you there... I thought they played much better with Pach at C and Horford at PF. I agree he is a rock solid C - but he is even a better PF - IMO

[Ruzious]

Zaza is nothing more than a backup center, but Atlanta is going to miss his physical play up front because they have basically nothing to replace him. I imagine players hate to play against him, because he mixes clumsly with strong and overly aggressive - so you will get bruised - if not bloodied.

Fun fact about Milwaukee: They're projected future starting front line has a combined wingspan of... 22 feet, 2 inches: Larry Sanders 7'6, John Henson 7'5, and Giannis Adetokunbo 7'3.

[Nivek]

Last season, the lineup data indicates the Hawks were better when Horford was on the floor without Pachulia. On average, Atlanta as +2.8 points per 100 possessions when Horford was on the floor -- they were exactly break even with Horford and Pachulia on the floor together. Those 2.8 points equate to a difference of about 7.5 wins over an 82-game schedule. It's the difference between a 48-49 win team and a 41-win team.

[stevemcqueen1]

The problem with the Nets is - their window might be closed before the season ends. Literally KG, Pierce, Johnson, and Terry could easily all be virtually done by the end of the season. AK doesn't move like he used to. Even younger guys like Lopez and Blatche are slow. And Williams has a tendency to get out of shape. They will challenge Minnesota for slowest team in the NBA.

The Knicks continue to go with selfish players - adding Bargs and re-signing Smith. They're very easy to root against, but they're talented enough to finish above .500, and I think they will.

Agreed. My take on the Nets is that they've built a bit of a frankenteam like the Lakers did last year. The names are impressive. But is it a team? I don't see it.

I think getting butts in the seats was more the primary objective than winning for last season. I think they've been very successful in rebranding that organization from the 12 win laughing stock it was a few years ago into a pseudo-contender they are today. But to get there so quickly, I think they've had to build a flawed roster. And then they've thrown money at the flaws, compounding their long term issues.

The Knicks should finish above .500 because Melo/Chandler is a powerful front court. He doesn't get credit for it here, but Melo is one of the best players in the East and his teams always make the playoffs. But they just aren't as good as Miami or Indy or a healthy Chicago. They're wasting far too much money. Nearly every single one of their guys except maybe Melo is overpaid.

[stevemcqueen1]

Yeah, they've got to be the worst. Shameless tankers. I see Charlotte and Orlando as being too young to be good, but they've at least got talent and a fair amount good players rather than just two.

Over under on 20 wins?

The only thing that would make it too funny is if they ended up with the 5th pick in the '14 draft.

Give me the under. The thing about Philly is their two most important long term pieces right now are Michael Carter Williams and Nerlens Noel. Neither are set to contribute much at all next season.

So they've built in an excuse for tanking. But that kind of baldly anticompetitive mission can spiral out of control. Wouldn't be surprised if that FO gets fired before anything comes of the rebuild.

Contrast that with the way Milwaukee is going about their tank. They're going to be reliant on fairly young players too--but some of those young players are already good: Henson, Sanders especially. They've got Mayo and Ersan and a bunch of other solid shooters. They're just missing a go to star PG. They'll probably lose a lot of games, but they'll also look competitive in most of their games. The Basketball Gods take note of stuff like that, I could see them ending up where they need to be in the lottery and getting just the guy they need, like Andrew Harrison or Dante Exum or something. Then I could see them being a very healthy organization long term while the 76ers keep on losing and shuffling players.

I wonder what the plan for Evan Turner is. I don't expect him to sign an extension before he hits FA next summer. I bet he ends up on another team.

[stevemcqueen1]

Regarding the Cavs, am I the only one that thinks they should start Jarrett Jack next to Kyrie Irving and move Waiters to 3rd guard? Waiters is an aggressive, attacking slasher that needs the ball in his hands to create but suffers from a bit of tunnel vision. I think he'd excel against lesser talented guys off the bench where he'd be the lead dog in a Harden 6th man type role. Kyrie Irving could benefit from playing extensive minutes with a guy like Jack who can nail 3s consistently and get the offense into their sets without over dribbling or consistently breaking plays off to create for himself like Waiters typically did. Kyrie actually can play off the ball and do so well, but the fit with Waiters is a bit awkward right now so the fewer minutes they are on the floor together, the better, at least for now.

Also I view Bynum as a low risk low reward type of signing. I don't think they can count on him for anything right now. IMO it's a 50/50 bet that he ever steps on a court again. Cleveland's success will hinge greatly on the health of Anderson Varejao. He's been really good when healthy, he just hasn't been healthy much lately. If Varejao plays in 50-60 games, the playoffs are a legitimate possibility, if Varejao misses many more than that, then we'll likely see a lot of Tristan Thompson in the middle which likely means another lottery pick next year.

That makes sense to me. If you think about it, Steph Curry and Kyrie are pretty similar types of PGs. Kyrie is more of a slasher, less of a pure shooter, maybe a little less suited to playing off the ball than Curry. But the difference might be sublime, Kyrie is probably the nearest thing to Curry in the league as far as shooting ability at the PG position.

So being that Jack is so well suited to playing with Curry, it seems like he should be well siuted to playing along side Kyrie.

Also you're right, Waiters is ball dominant. One of the reasons I thought he was a bit of an odd pairing with Kyrie in the first place. I see the Harden comparison there. Very much a slasher who uses his big, strong body to generate contact and just create. He's not the all around talent Harden is, but the slashing is the source of the comparison. Plus Waiters was the sixth man in college, it's a role he's usually played.

You're going to want the ball in Kyrie's hands most of the time. But when you stagger his minutes with Waiters, you can create a situation where he gets to play off the ball more for a handful of minutes each game. He's plenty good enough a shooter to thrive doing that.

That's a lot of creativity from their top three guards.

Agreed about Bynum. If the NBA thought he was more than 50/50, he would have gotten a more conventional deal. Right now, he's basically no risk at all. Cleveland can easily afford his deal. But they do have to make a decision on him by January I believe. At that point they have to pick up the rest of the money on his deal or let him walk, and I think he's set for 12.5 million a year for two years . So basically he's a 12.5 million dollar risk for the next season if they're still on the fence about him come January. Not insignificant, but they've got the money.

No matter what, this is Bynum's last chance to get back to being a top C IMO.

Agreed about Varejao being important for them. You're right, Thompson is not an acceptable option playing a ton of minutes at C. His health problems are somewhat unique though--not necessarily related to basketball. I'd worry a lot about him if he were on my team.

Can you imagine how bad Cleveland would be on defense with Bennett and Thompson playing most of the minutes at PF and C?

[stevemcqueen1]

I don't - I really think they should have figured out a way to get a C to play next to Horford.

Yeah that would have been ideal, but was the opportunity there? Horford will probably get more minutes at PF than he did in the pat. But he's a good enough C to stay there and Paul Millsap for that deal was too good to pass up IMO. They're a little short in the front court, but Horford and Millsap are powerful. Good at uprooting people and clearing space in the paint. If they had a big time guard, you could live with Horford and Millsap as your PF & C. In two years, Danny Ferry has basically kept up his roster quality while upgrading their team BBall IQ and putting their financial house in order. ATL went from having a couple of awful contracts to no bad contracts very quickly. He's a good GM.

They've got the foundation and the room to sign a high dollar FA and actually be successful with him. The good smart players who want a chance to win should take note.

I think they did a nice job with Butler and I see the same with Snell. And the core of Rose and Noah is a good one. Also, Boozer had one of his best years last year - I don't see him declining. I think this will be a good year for Chicago - I think they will give Miami fits. Then they need to go grab a wing in FA next year.

Butler is a nice player. I'm a little more skeptical about Snell, but he's in a good situation.

Boozer did have a solid year in a season where Noah missed several games and Rose didn't play. But I see him as having declined from the year before. And he's definitely not the player he was in Utah any more. He's 31 now, and he's expensive. Chicago has been trying to deal him since at least last summer. I know Bulls fans have scapegoated him and were frustrated with him, up until that postseason run last year. I think Chicago deals him if they can find a buyer and only keeps him beyond his contract if he takes an enormous pay cut.

Rose and Noah is definitely a good core, any team would love to build around that. The issue is just about resources for building around them. They're always going to be good in seasons where both Noah and Rose play a decent amount of games, so the draft is going to be a difficult proposition. I think they need to go out and get a big time FA with the money they'll save from Deng leaving. Doesn't have to be a Carmelo or LeBron type, but like I said before, a Danny Granger maybe?

Carmelo would be tremendous though. That team has such a strong foundation for defense and so many shots available for a second stud scorer. If I were Carmelo, I'd opt out of my final year with the Knicks and head straight for Chicago. Take a pay cut if necessary. A 2015 Bulls team with Carmelo and Noah and Rose would be better than the Heat IMO.

I think the Nets more than the Knicks. The Knicks get to basically reset after next year (my guess is that everyone opts in but losing Anthony is definitely a possibility. I guess the Nets believe they are going to win it all - they must believe that or they wouldn't have made those moves.

[/quote]

Yeah I definitely think it's a possibility they lose Melo. He's openly said he knows his window of winning a championship as a key player is closing. He knows the score, knows he doesn't have the time to wait for a team to build around him any more. He's got to be on a pre-built contender. That's why I think Chicago makes a lot of sense for him.

Unless NY unexpectedly falls into another superstar, I take it for granted they won't be good enough to contend with this Melo team. They took their shot with Amare and Melo and it didn't work out. They didn't leave enough money for the third guy (CP3) as was the original plan. And Amar'e was a huge bust.

I actually think DC and Cleveland would also be other viable options for Melo in the East, provided they still have the money. Cleveland less viable than here in DC though because of the defense.

But whether Melo wanted to go to DC, Chicago, or Cleveland, he'd have to accept sharing the ball like he did in Denver with AI. Accept being the second best player on the team at that point in his career.

I don't think he'll team up with LeBron. They'd probably be unstoppable together. It would suck for the league. I think he wants to win his ring by going through LeBron and Wade.

[stevemcqueen1]

I don't like the moves the Nets and the Knicks made. I think they mortgaged their futures to eke out a tiny window of long shot contention to try and cover up fundamental flaws in their construction. Those are poorly run organizations.

Disagree on the Nets. Strongly agree on the Knicks.

Nets added a ton of salary and mortgaged the future, but they've also made themselves a legit contender. Garnett, Pierce, Kirilenko & Terry are strong additions and infuse a strong core of Williams & Lopez and they gave very little in terms of quality to add all these pieces. It's a veteran team that can police itself while Jason Kidd learns on the job as coach. Depending on how much Garnett & Pierce have left come playoff time, they could be a serious threat to Miami, Chicago & Indiana.

The Knicks may take a huge tumble. They'll go only as far as Melo & Chandler take them. I don't trust J.R. Smith now that he's got his money. Amar'e is stuck as a 20 minute or so bench player because he can't play with Melo and Bargs is arguably the worst acquisition of the off-season. I wouldn't be surprised to see Melo exit stage left next offseason.

I just don't think spending sooo much, and wasting so much can end well. Joe Johnson was a mistake. He rivals Amar'e as one of the worst contracts in the NBA. PER certainly isn't everything. But a 14 PER wing making his money is unacceptable. They are spending an unbelievable amount in salary for basically a one year window, two at the most. That's before you even calculate their luxury tax, which will be unbelievable. Just like the Lakers last year, they've left themselves no time for this to come together. A terrible risk when you've suddenly got four or five alpha type players and a coach with literally no coaching experience whatsoever. Especially when it's title or bust now and Miami is still better than them even in a best case scenario.

I'm also not crazy about DWill any more. I think his situation in Utah did more to "make" him than we realized--that he's not as easy to win with as it used to seem. I think he's the 5th best PG in the East today and all of the guys who are better than him are younger.

It's tough to bet against KG though. And I actually like Brook Lopez's game. Those are the only things keeping me from totally writing the Nets off. It was tough to bet against Kobe too though, tough to bet against Nash and all of the other good, high priced players LA had last season too. This Nets team has a similar feel, right down to the farcical coaching hire.

What a bust Amar'e ended up being. NY knew he was a risky bet going in and it's gone bad. I wouldn't be surprised if Melo left either. I think he should if he ever wants to win a championship as a star player.

[closg00]

He was bad in SL, but Philly gets a no-cost look at a former 1st round pick in Tony Wroten. (Future 2nd rounder)

[Ruzious]

Seth Curry to GS. Shades of the Van Arsdale brothers. The DiMaggio brothers?

The Smothers Brothers?

[verbal8]

The problem with the Nets is - their window might be closed before the season ends. Literally KG, Pierce, Johnson, and Terry could easily all be virtually done by the end of the season. AK doesn't move like he used to. Even younger guys like Lopez and Blatche are slow. And Williams has a tendency to get out of shape. They will challenge Minnesota for slowest team in the NBA.

Agreed. My take on the Nets is that they've built a bit of a frankenteam like the Lakers did last year. The names are impressive. But is it a team? I don't see it.

I think getting butts in the seats was more the primary objective than winning for last season. I think they've been very successful in rebranding that organization from the 12 win laughing stock it was a few years ago into a pseudo-contender they are today. But to get there so quickly, I think they've had to build a flawed roster. And then they've thrown money at the flaws, compounding their long term issues.

I agree on the Nets long term. However I think they will at least stay decent. Unlike the Lakers and Knicks they have depth. It should help in the regular season and also allow them to limit minutes for KG and Pierce.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

CCJ, I don't think I am feeling you on this one... I think that Kidd will be able to figure it out. Garnett is not going to play in back to backs... so that will help. Pierce is going to play < 30 min/gm.

PG: Williams, Livingston, Terry
SG: Johnson, Terry, Pierce
SF: Pierce, Kirilenko
PF: Garnett, Kirlenko, Evans
C: Lopez, Blatche, Plumlee

When Garnett rests...

PG: Williams, Livingston, Terry
SG: Johnson, Terry, Pierce
SF: Pierce, Kirilenko, Johnson
PF: Kirlenko, Evans, Blatche
C: Lopez, Blatche, Plumlee

So, I think he can make it work... and I think that Garnett and Pierce will add some toughness.

But you are right, it is a small window.

dckingsfan, one thing I like is people teach me things here, too. Maybe you're right. I have a different take on this and the beautiful thing is once the season starts, we both can watch how it all unfolds. Time will tell.

[nate33]

Yeah, they've got to be the worst. Shameless tankers. I see Charlotte and Orlando as being too young to be good, but they've at least got talent and a fair amount good players rather than just two.

Over under on 20 wins?

The only thing that would make it too funny is if they ended up with the 5th pick in the '14 draft.

Give me the under. The thing about Philly is their two most important long term pieces right now are Michael Carter Williams and Nerlens Noel. Neither are set to contribute much at all next season.

So they've built in an excuse for tanking. But that kind of baldly anticompetitive mission can spiral out of control. Wouldn't be surprised if that FO gets fired before anything comes of the rebuild.

Contrast that with the way Milwaukee is going about their tank. They're going to be reliant on fairly young players too--but some of those young players are already good: Henson, Sanders especially. They've got Mayo and Ersan and a bunch of other solid shooters. They're just missing a go to star PG. They'll probably lose a lot of games, but they'll also look competitive in most of their games. The Basketball Gods take note of stuff like that, I could see them ending up where they need to be in the lottery and getting just the guy they need, like Andrew Harrison or Dante Exum or something. Then I could see them being a very healthy organization long term while the 76ers keep on losing and shuffling players.

I wonder what the plan for Evan Turner is. I don't expect him to sign an extension before he hits FA next summer. I bet he ends up on another team.

I don't think it's fair to compare Philly and Milwaukee. They're at different stages of their rebuild. Milwaukee had good young talent on the roster already. It's not hard to project that both Henson and Sanders will eventually be above-average starting bigs. Ilyasova is also good and they had the cap room to add a backcourt. It was much easier for them to "rebuild on the fly" because all they really had to do was jettison overpriced vets and commit to the youth already there.

Philly had just one above-average young player on the roster in Jrue Holiday, and he's really only top 10ish PG material. It's not like he's a superstar. Furthermore, good PG play alone is often enough to make a horrible team half-decent and knock them out of the top of the lottery. Philly, with Jrue, looked to be poised for 25-35 win territory for a while, that's No Man's Land. They had two choices: add veteran talent and get up to 40ish wins and fight for 8th seed, or blow it up and try again with a more talented base. They chose the second option. I think it's a good move. A year from now, they'll have Noel, MCW and (perhaps) Wiggins, plus Thad Young and about $35M in cap room. That's a strong position. They can take a shot at acquiring star-caliber free agents, but if that doesn't pan out, they can always add overpriced vets on short term contracts in an effort to teach the youngsters how to win.

[Nivek]

He was bad in SL, but Philly gets a no-cost look at a former 1st round pick in Tony Wroten. (Future 2nd rounder)

Kinda interesting trade just because of the one stat goober (Hollinger) trading a guy to another stat goober (Hinkie). Pre-draft, I had Wroten rated as a 2nd rounder. He has obvious ability, but he's a guy who needs to learn how to play.

[MikeTheKid]

TMac just retired on First Take, its great to be back from vacation!!!!!

[closg00]

Slow news day posting. Khan was loathed and lasted only 4 years as Minny GM, but he made Ernie his b*tch in trades.
http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/5/3/42 ... onny-flynn

This quote will strike a familiar tone with some posters on the board, the owner made him do it.

Kahn rambles on about how terrible it was to pick No. 4 in 2010, despite the fact that DeMarcus Cousins, Greg Monroe and Paul George were picked from No. 5 on. And then he busts out a big stick of WTF in retroactively justifying the Wes Johnson pick.

And you should ask Rick [Adelman] about this: One of the selling points to Rick on this job when he was watching film of the team, he really liked Wes Johnson. And there was a lot to like about Wes.

[payitforward]

Slow news day posting. Khan was loathed and lasted only 4 years as Minny GM, but he made Ernie his b*tch in trades.
http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/5/3/42 ... onny-flynn

This quote will strike a familiar tone with some posters on the board, the owner made him do it.

Kahn rambles on about how terrible it was to pick No. 4 in 2010, despite the fact that DeMarcus Cousins, Greg Monroe and Paul George were picked from No. 5 on. And then he busts out a big stick of WTF in retroactively justifying the Wes Johnson pick.

And you should ask Rick [Adelman] about this: One of the selling points to Rick on this job when he was watching film of the team, he really liked Wes Johnson. And there was a lot to like about Wes.

Yup, guys who are bad always find a way to blame the owner or otherwise justify each and every one of their long sequences of brain-dead moves.

But, keep in mind -- David Kahn is gone; he's history. We still have our troglodyte. And our owner seems to think he's doing just a terrific job.

[hands11]

I also think Coach Kidd is in for a helluva time trying to keep aging players happy. KG is old. He and Pierce aren't what they used to be or they'd still be Celtics. Boston killed it getting draft picks forever for those two players. Kirilenko can't help them on the bench. He won't get minutes over other players at PF or SF. Joe Johnson has played with Pierce in the past, but now will he share the basketball. Pierce was the man in Boston way back in 2001-2002, when Joe Johnson was a rookie. http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2002.html Things are different now.

I think Brooklyn will not only have an new coach who's never had to manage egos and be THE coach; but they'll also have old dogs trying to learn new tricks as role players. When will Mason Plumlee play? Who's going to defend the perimeter? Deron Williams?

I don't think Brooklyn's going to be a world-beater, but they do have guys to challenge even Miami.

CCJ, I don't think I am feeling you on this one... I think that Kidd will be able to figure it out. Garnett is not going to play in back to backs... so that will help. Pierce is going to play < 30 min/gm.

PG: Williams, Livingston, Terry
SG: Johnson, Terry, Pierce
SF: Pierce, Kirilenko
PF: Garnett, Kirlenko, Evans
C: Lopez, Blatche, Plumlee

When Garnett rests...

PG: Williams, Livingston, Terry
SG: Johnson, Terry, Pierce
SF: Pierce, Kirilenko, Johnson
PF: Kirlenko, Evans, Blatche
C: Lopez, Blatche, Plumlee

So, I think he can make it work... and I think that Garnett and Pierce will add some toughness.

But you are right, it is a small window.

Probably so. But then again, I thought it was a small window when KG and RA went to the Celtics. TD is like some kind of zombie basketball player. Nash is like 82. Look how long Kidd played.

The big things is to get to the very top of winning. Once there, a team can sometimes make moves to keep it going. The key will be winning, then keeping Lopez and Williams together. If they can roll in a PP replacement after 2 years they could keep rolling players in there. Owner is willing to spend to do it, that's clear.

Going to be sick in my stomach if playing with all those players and getting that kind of winning experience turn Dray into a long term legit piece that is balling in conference and title games for the next 6 years. He hit is rock bottom. Now he is playing with KG so there is access to learn. Not going to bet the farm on it but I could see Dray contributing in the playoffs for a while it this all works out.

So what you'll think Drays next contract looks like ? If you had to guess today.

[hands11]

Slow news day posting. Khan was loathed and lasted only 4 years as Minny GM, but he made Ernie his b*tch in trades.
http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/5/3/42 ... onny-flynn

This quote will strike a familiar tone with some posters on the board, the owner made him do it.

Kahn rambles on about how terrible it was to pick No. 4 in 2010, despite the fact that DeMarcus Cousins, Greg Monroe and Paul George were picked from No. 5 on. And then he busts out a big stick of WTF in retroactively justifying the Wes Johnson pick.

And you should ask Rick [Adelman] about this: One of the selling points to Rick on this job when he was watching film of the team, he really liked Wes Johnson. And there was a lot to like about Wes.

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/5/3/42 ... onny-flynn

We handled it the best way we can, and of course I handled it per instructions from the owner. Glen and I talked about it at length. I think it actually took me some time to tell Glen it was imperative he receive max money. The only issue, the only quibble came down to that last year [...]. It's an awfully long time to string a contract out with all the variables that can occur mostly due to injuries and oftentimes to big men. That was it. I think Kevin really had his heart set on a fifth year. I think his friendship with Russell Westbrook (who signed a five-year deal with OKC) made it difficult to accept, but that's why I also prevailed upon Glen that we should relent and give him a third-year option so he felt like he was winning something too. In every compromise it's important for both sides to walk away with something that was valuable to have.

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/nba--kevin ... 09299.html

"I don't know who labels people stars, but even [T'wolves owner] Glen Taylor said: I don't think Kevin Love is a star, because he hasn't led us to the playoffs," Love told Yahoo! Sports.

Not claiming Kahn was a good GM. But this is what happens. Owner have the final say in who gets the max contracts. Owner own. General Manager... manage.