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Coronavirus

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Re: Coronavirus 

Post#841 » by coldfish » Tue Mar 17, 2020 8:42 pm

TallDude wrote:
transplant wrote:Reports I've read expect that COVID-19 infections will double in the US every 6 days for at least a month. If this happens, we'll look back nostalgically to mid-March.

Be smart and be well.


Protect yourself and be safe. I want to argue with you guys next season also. US have now around 50 000 people who have ”it”. Stats only tell you how many are tested. I don`t won`r to scare anyone but in our perspective USA will get treep trouble. Trump just care some other more important things. But i hope when u go deep Europe can help you. If or up to me i will send my share, i guess we have enouhg and they make more special beds 24/7. How is Trump doing?


The US probably has countless cases already. They are only testing people who are showing severe symptoms. I wouldn't doubt if the number is 500,000. At some point in the next month or so, the US will be losing thousands of people per day. Don't forget, we have 5 or 6 times as many people as Spain and Italy.

Trump is just a figurehead. He doesn't define us as a country and doesn't have nearly as much power as either he or his detractors think he has.

On the positive side, the US is largely shut down right now. We cut off travel from Asia early and we are using the South Korean testing models. Our congress is about to write a check to allow everyone to stay home for a month or two. We started shutting stuff down well before Spain and Italy did on their curves (proportionately). We are also a very spread out, diverse population and its heading into spring.

I suspect that the total counts for the US will look gruesome when this is all done but on a local level, we are working diligently on it. There are some instagram examples of people being stupid but that is a small percentage of people right now. Most people are not taking this as an excuse to go on vacation.
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Re: Coronavirus 

Post#842 » by TallDude » Tue Mar 17, 2020 8:43 pm

TallDude wrote:
transplant wrote:Reports I've read expect that COVID-19 infections will double in the US every 6 days for at least a month. If this happens, we'll look back nostalgically to mid-March.

Be smart and be well.


Protect yourself and be safe. I want to argue with you guys next season also. US have now around 50 000 people who have ”it”. Stats only tell you how many are tested. I don`t won`t to scare anyone but in our perspective USA will get treep trouble. Trump just care only some other more important things??? Like money. i hope when Go really deep Europe can help you. I guess we have enough money to sdp,that. I bet people who voted Trump think that states are biggest market in the world and can set by rules. Never. EU with or without Britain will be most rich market in the world. And now lot of US and EU companies will come in they homelands.
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Re: Coronavirus 

Post#843 » by TallDude » Tue Mar 17, 2020 8:44 pm

coldfish wrote:
TallDude wrote:
transplant wrote:Reports I've read expect that COVID-19 infections will double in the US every 6 days for at least a month. If this happens, we'll look back nostalgically to mid-March.

Be smart and be well.


Protect yourself and be safe. I want to argue with you guys next season also. US have now around 50 000 people who have ”it”. Stats only tell you how many are tested. I don`t won`r to scare anyone but in our perspective USA will get treep trouble. Trump just care some other more important things. But i hope when u go deep Europe can help you. If or up to me i will send my share, i guess we have enouhg and they make more special beds 24/7. How is Trump doing?


The US probably has countless cases already. They are only testing people who are showing severe symptoms. I wouldn't doubt if the number is 500,000. At some point in the next month or so, the US will be losing thousands of people per day. Don't forget, we have 5 or 6 times as many people as Spain and Italy.

Trump is just a figurehead. He doesn't define us as a country and doesn't have nearly as much power as either he or his detractors think he has.

On the positive side, the US is largely shut down right now. We cut off travel from Asia early and we are using the South Korean testing models. Our congress is about to write a check to allow everyone to stay home for a month or two. We started shutting stuff down well before Spain and Italy did on their curves (proportionately). We are also a very spread out, diverse population and its heading into spring.

I suspect that the total counts for the US will look gruesome when this is all done but on a local level, we are working diligently on it. There are some instagram examples of people being stupid but that is a small percentage of people right now. Most people are not taking this as an excuse to go on vacation.


Us have much power. Trump just don`t use it. His golf pals are way too more imporant.
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Re: Coronavirus 

Post#844 » by coldfish » Tue Mar 17, 2020 8:52 pm

TallDude wrote:
coldfish wrote:
TallDude wrote:
Protect yourself and be safe. I want to argue with you guys next season also. US have now around 50 000 people who have ”it”. Stats only tell you how many are tested. I don`t won`r to scare anyone but in our perspective USA will get treep trouble. Trump just care some other more important things. But i hope when u go deep Europe can help you. If or up to me i will send my share, i guess we have enouhg and they make more special beds 24/7. How is Trump doing?


The US probably has countless cases already. They are only testing people who are showing severe symptoms. I wouldn't doubt if the number is 500,000. At some point in the next month or so, the US will be losing thousands of people per day. Don't forget, we have 5 or 6 times as many people as Spain and Italy.

Trump is just a figurehead. He doesn't define us as a country and doesn't have nearly as much power as either he or his detractors think he has.

On the positive side, the US is largely shut down right now. We cut off travel from Asia early and we are using the South Korean testing models. Our congress is about to write a check to allow everyone to stay home for a month or two. We started shutting stuff down well before Spain and Italy did on their curves (proportionately). We are also a very spread out, diverse population and its heading into spring.

I suspect that the total counts for the US will look gruesome when this is all done but on a local level, we are working diligently on it. There are some instagram examples of people being stupid but that is a small percentage of people right now. Most people are not taking this as an excuse to go on vacation.


Us have much power. Trump just don`t use it. His golf pals are way too more imporant.


The US has a lot of power. Trump isn't the only one who wields it. For the most part, Trump is almost stepping aside right now. The whole government is putting aside the politics and getting down to working on it.

We should have been doing this two weeks ago and Trump deserves a lot of the blame for the delay. That said, private companies have been shutting down travel, meetings, people coming into work, etc. for weeks now. Governors have been shutting down stuff on their own for a week.

Trump is just a bystander at this point. The rest of the US is stepping up.
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Re: Coronavirus 

Post#845 » by dougthonus » Tue Mar 17, 2020 8:53 pm

Mbrahv0528 wrote:I think the 2/3rds thing is already underway?


So you think we are already set where 6 million people in the Chicago metro area will get this in the near future? I don't see any reason to come to that conclusion.
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Re: Coronavirus 

Post#846 » by coldfish » Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:03 pm

dougthonus wrote:
Mbrahv0528 wrote:I think the 2/3rds thing is already underway?


So you think we are already set where 6 million people in the Chicago metro area will get this in the near future? I don't see any reason to come to that conclusion.


The real question is how many people *actually* have it. Our testing is so limited, the published numbers almost have nothing to do with reality. It would be like trying to clock high end sports cars with a speedometer that goes to 55mph. 60mph is going to read the same as 220mph.

Within the next two weeks our testing capability will be radically better. Unfortunately, that will give us data showing exponential growth which again, may or may not be true.

So many unknowns. . . . even at this point.
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Re: Coronavirus 

Post#847 » by Mech Engineer » Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:03 pm

Trump has literally taken a backseat. Once the stock market fell, it woke him up. He started listening to the experts partially because he realized this will doom his election chances in Nov. But, he is also scared and obviously wants America to do well.

In fairness to Trump, 2 weeks back, many educated folks I know including some doctors who hate Trump also were pooh-poohing the impact of this.

When Rudy Gobert and Tom Hanks got it, it put this situation in a higher gear. If America does well, we kind of have to thank them.
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Re: Coronavirus 

Post#848 » by Habs72 » Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:14 pm

4 Brooklyn Nets players apparently have virus.
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Re: Coronavirus 

Post#849 » by MalagaBulls » Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:37 pm

KD infected:

Read on Twitter
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Re: Coronavirus 

Post#850 » by dice » Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:40 pm

dougthonus wrote:
dice wrote:FAILING to flatten the curve is what necessitates more drastic measures. we have thus far failed as a nation to flatten the curve and are suffering the consequences. both humans and businesses are in a triage situation


It's impossible to say whether we are successfully flattening the curve due to inadequate amount of testing going on to show what the real numbers are. We're also so early in the number of cases that we aren't at the critical point of failing to flatten the curve. Our hospitals aren't over run yet, and we can still treat people.

It seems like Asian countries have generally been successful flattening the curve.

I do agree the worst case scenario is that you attempt to flatten the curve, but fail, and end up with both the economic impact of not flattening the curve and still have the mass death and overrun hospitals.

we had someone say in this very thread that his elderly relative had trouble getting necessary care due to hospital overcrowding. and chicagoland is not as bad as a lot of places. and it's only going to get worse
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Re: Coronavirus 

Post#851 » by dice » Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:51 pm

coldfish wrote:
dice wrote:
Mech Engineer wrote:
You are right...once something is free, the tendency is too look for it instead of working for it. But, if health care is made easier as the first step, that will give a guideline for other things. And, basic food items should be affordable for everyone. That is better distribution of wealth or socialism but it provides a path for study.

There is a fine balance between getting rich through hard work/innovation and getting rich based on monopoly, corporate connections. The system has to differentiate between those two and not let the second group become the majority rich which is what it seems to be happening.

i've long held the position that there should be a balance between the freedom of the individual to achieve/innovate and the needs of society. as such, unsurprisingly to me, the happiest societies are the ones where total taxation is around 50%

world happiness report will be released on friday, but using last year's rankings:

1 finland ($48,580 per capita GNI, 54.2% total tax rate)
2 denmark ($56,410, 50.8%)
3 norway ($68,310, 54.8%)
4 iceland ($67,050, 40.4%)
5 netherlands ($56,890, 39.8%)
6 switzerland ($68,820, 27.8%)
7 sweden ($54,030, 49.8%)
8 new zealand ($39,410, 34.5%)
9 canada ($47,590, 31.7%)
10 austria ($55,300, 42.7%)
11 australia ($50,050, 27.8%)
12 costa rica ($16,700, 21.0%)
13 israel ($39,940, 36.8%)
14 luxembourg ($72.200, 36.5%)
15 UK ($45,350, 34.4%)
16 ireland ($67,050, 30.8%)
17 germany ($54,560, 44.5%)
18 belgium ($51,740, 47.9%)
19 USA ($63,690, 27.1%)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Happiness_Report
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GNI_(PPP)_per_capita
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_tax_revenue_to_GDP_ratio

and so the question becomes, how best to utilize government funds. i personally believe that broad-based government health care should be available for all citizens at low out-of-pocket cost (co-pays only - to avoid having hypochondriacs abuse the system). something that every industrialized nation other than the USA has. i also believe in quality free public education. to what age/level that goes i'm not sure. i also believe in the concept of a universal basic income (UBI), which i came up with independently about 20 years ago, not realizing that it was a fairly widely discussed topic already:

-concept dates back to 16th century
-advocated by "father of the american revolution" thomas paine
-widely discussed as "state bonus" in early 1900s
-we've had one for the elderly in the form of social security since 1935
-family allowances implemented in UK in 1946
-"negative income tax" experiments in canada and US in '60s and '70s - nixon proposed one
-alaska has had a "permanent fund dividend" for all residents funded by state oil revenues since 1976 ($1-2K a year to all permanent residents)
-broadly discussed in europe since the '80s



I have absolutely no idea how they come up with a tax rate like that. Every working person gets 15% of their income sent to the federal government right off the top. Then you add in federal tax, state tax, local tax, property tax, sales tax, business taxes, capital gains taxes and a bunch of other miscellaneous taxes.

for starters, the wealthy, who drive up GNI, often have a large portion of their income in capital gains. also, there are a lot of people receiving financial assistance of some sort who have very low or even negative effective taxation (on income, anyway). i would imagine that they are including corporate income as well. and there are massive corporations which pay very little in taxes. if the numbers are off by 10% or whatever you are suggesting for the USA, they would also likely be off by something similar for other nations as well. are scandanavian countries actually paying more than 60% of income in taxes?

When you add up all the layers of government in the US, they take up roughly 35 to 40% of GDP. You simply can't get there with a 27.1% tax rate.

you can when you spend more than you take in

my basic vision is a 50% flat income tax w/ no other forms of taxation (no business tax, no sales tax, no property tax, no...parking tickets/fees!). whatever money the government does not spend gets rebated to all independent citizens (w/ a fractional share for dependents, to be distributed to their caretakers). government expenses itemized and distributed along w/ rebate checks. incentivizes lawmakers to limit government expenditures. based on the USA GNI of $63,690 and assuming that the government uses 40% of its 50% tax revenue, that would leave $6,369 per citizen (around $7300 per adult and $3650 per dependent if doing a 2:1 ratio) to be distributed annually in the form of a UBI

If I add up all my taxes, I'm roughly at 43%. That is to say, for every dollar my wife and I get paid, $0.43 goes to some form of government. I'm already pretty close to your 50% number and I suspect a lot of people are. I bet you are underestimating just how much our government spends. IMO our UBI would be much, much lower than $6369 after our governments got their hands in the stream. Your numbers seem like, way off.

i'm basing my UBI number strictly off of per capita GNI and the government spending 40% of that. so unless you're disputing the GNI...
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Re: Coronavirus 

Post#852 » by transplant » Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:51 pm

One of the great things about this board is that I'm anonymous. No one here knows who I really am so I can say things here that I wouldn't even say to my wife. I'm about to enter the confessional.

I'm 66 years old so I'm in a high-risk group. I'm not individually very worried about getting the virus. Like many here, I grew up as an athlete, stay in pretty good shape and still feel like I have the "warrior gene." If I got this thing, I would like my chances of beating it. That's not what I fear.

There are older people who I regularly visit because I love them and they appreciate the attention. I fear the virus because I could give it to them and they could die as a result.

Though I'm retired, I have a part-time job cleaning a daycare center. The center is remaining open because no one has told them they have to close and they're serving dozens of working parents who are able to keep working because my daycare center is able to take care of their kids. All of us who work at the center understand that if any of us so much as get a bad cold, they might have to close the center. If they close the center, some parents would lose their income and maybe even their jobs. The other employees of the center who are paid on an hourly basis would lose their income.

Last, but most important, if I got the virus I could give it to my wife. She's a tough cookie, but not exactly a workout warrior. I don't even like thinking about that going bad.

I suspect that a lot of you have similar feelings. It's not necessarily about self-preservation
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Re: Coronavirus 

Post#853 » by dougthonus » Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:57 pm

dice wrote:for starters, the wealthy, who drive up GNI, often have a large portion of their income in capital gains. also, there are a lot of people receiving financial assistance of some sort who have very low or even negative effective taxation (on income, anyway). i would imagine that they are including corporate income as well. and there are massive corporations which pay very little in taxes. if the numbers are off by 10% or whatever you are suggesting for the USA, they would also likely be off by something similar for other nations as well. are scandanavian countries actually paying more than 60% of income in taxes?


The wealthy, particularly corporations, will simply leave if you try and tax them at 50%. Your GNI projections would just fall dramatically.
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Re: Coronavirus 

Post#854 » by MrSparkle » Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:11 pm

dougthonus wrote:
dice wrote:for starters, the wealthy, who drive up GNI, often have a large portion of their income in capital gains. also, there are a lot of people receiving financial assistance of some sort who have very low or even negative effective taxation (on income, anyway). i would imagine that they are including corporate income as well. and there are massive corporations which pay very little in taxes. if the numbers are off by 10% or whatever you are suggesting for the USA, they would also likely be off by something similar for other nations as well. are scandanavian countries actually paying more than 60% of income in taxes?


The wealthy, particularly corporations, will simply leave if you try and tax them at 50%. Your GNI projections would just fall dramatically.


I absolutely believe it on the state level (we see IL suffer because of its high taxes), but internationally... where do they pack up and go?

Serious question- I’m economically illiterate. Seems like all the other safe/stable countries in the world have high taxes (EU) or really nationalistic economies (JP, China, etc.). Otherwise you are gambling and trading with setting up base in completely unstable nations with wild governments and huge income disparities. Will they go to Russia, Brazil, India? Only so many people fit in Singapore.
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Re: Coronavirus 

Post#855 » by Mech Engineer » Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:15 pm

dougthonus wrote:
dice wrote:for starters, the wealthy, who drive up GNI, often have a large portion of their income in capital gains. also, there are a lot of people receiving financial assistance of some sort who have very low or even negative effective taxation (on income, anyway). i would imagine that they are including corporate income as well. and there are massive corporations which pay very little in taxes. if the numbers are off by 10% or whatever you are suggesting for the USA, they would also likely be off by something similar for other nations as well. are scandanavian countries actually paying more than 60% of income in taxes?


The wealthy, particularly corporations, will simply leave if you try and tax them at 50%. Your GNI projections would just fall dramatically.


All this have to be done in small steps. Countries are waiting to grab corporations especially American ones. It has to be more of a structural change rather than levying 50% tax on corporations. That is why s lot of people are scared about Bernie. You need pilot tests before trying anything revolutionary. This virus has provided some incentive to try new things.
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Re: Coronavirus 

Post#856 » by dice » Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:42 pm

dougthonus wrote:
dice wrote:for starters, the wealthy, who drive up GNI, often have a large portion of their income in capital gains. also, there are a lot of people receiving financial assistance of some sort who have very low or even negative effective taxation (on income, anyway). i would imagine that they are including corporate income as well. and there are massive corporations which pay very little in taxes. if the numbers are off by 10% or whatever you are suggesting for the USA, they would also likely be off by something similar for other nations as well. are scandanavian countries actually paying more than 60% of income in taxes?


The wealthy, particularly corporations, will simply leave if you try and tax them at 50%. Your GNI projections would just fall dramatically.

i specifically said that the corporate tax would be ZERO
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Re: Coronavirus 

Post#857 » by coldfish » Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:54 pm

dice wrote:for starters, the wealthy, who drive up GNI, often have a large portion of their income in capital gains. also, there are a lot of people receiving financial assistance of some sort who have very low or even negative effective taxation (on income, anyway). i would imagine that they are including corporate income as well. and there are massive corporations which pay very little in taxes. if the numbers are off by 10% or whatever you are suggesting for the USA, they would also likely be off by something similar for other nations as well. are scandanavian countries actually paying more than 60% of income in taxes?


That's a good question. I know that other countries have drastically different tax structures. Depending on how you did the definitions, you could do it consistently and still come up with a radically incorrect number.


When you add up all the layers of government in the US, they take up roughly 35 to 40% of GDP. You simply can't get there with a 27.1% tax rate.

you can when you spend more than you take in


The Trump tax cuts wratcheted up our deficits. Its true. That said, our total deficits are around 4% of GDP. Its a relatively small slice of government funding as most state and local functions are balanced.

i'm basing my UBI number strictly off of per capita GNI and the government spending 40% of that. so unless you're disputing the GNI...


Forgive me here. I'm not being argumentative. I did napkin math quite some time ago and found the UBI to be impossible. I'll do it again and you tell me where I am wrong.

GNI = $21T
50% tax = $10.5T (if you could somehow get that)
Total cost of all government spending = $8T
Left over for UBI = $2.5T
Population = 330m
UBI per person = $7575

Hmmm. . . . I guess its more possible than I thought. That's a worst case projection (if you can raise the revenue). Not giving it to those already getting social security would get you another 20% you could reduce taxes by. As Doug and I said, start taking out pensions gets you another chunk.
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Re: Coronavirus 

Post#858 » by dougthonus » Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:03 pm

MrSparkle wrote:I absolutely believe it on the state level (we see IL suffer because of its high taxes), but internationally... where do they pack up and go?

Serious question- I’m economically illiterate. Seems like all the other safe/stable countries in the world have high taxes (EU) or really nationalistic economies (JP, China, etc.). Otherwise you are gambling and trading with setting up base in completely unstable nations with wild governments and huge income disparities. Will they go to Russia, Brazil, India? Only so many people fit in Singapore.


Lots of companies already do this. They find a country where they incorporate in and keep all their profits off US books. There are limits about how they bring money into the country when they do that though, so it isn't a perfect loop hole, but it's a difficult one to close entirely.
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Re: Coronavirus 

Post#859 » by dice » Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:04 pm

League Circles wrote:
dice wrote:
League Circles wrote:A gym is a place where people are in close proximity breathing heavily. End of story.

saying it's end of story doesn't make it so. the REALITY is that you can quite easily go to the gym when it's not super busy and never be within 6 feet of another human being. particularly when there's, you know, a pandemic unfolding. i did it just last evening. as the importance of the crisis has advanced, so has the spacing at the gym. funny that

No need to do endless pushups and situps, just a few sets of that or calisthenics etc.

which, again, is certainly "adequate." no arguments there. but it's your own standard

You said it seems unnecessary, and then cite the positive benefits of gyms which is laughable seeing as how those benefits are easily achieved for free by everyone in alternative ways

did you not even read my last post? why are you responding by saying the exact same thing you said in your first post, while completely ignoring my points about weight lifting and, again, the REALITY that people simply aren't going to do other forms of exercise as much at home?

again, why do people pay for gym memberships when they can get the same benefits for free? it's truly not difficult to understand

Does it seem unnecessary to you that schools are closing?

no, because schools are not gyms. book learning does not help your BODY, which is what viruses attack. and students are more necessarily in close proximity. also, you can't freaking exercise online

It's a difficult time. I guess if you can't get to the gym you may have to see your current flawless physique transform into a grotesque immunocompromised blob.

wtf are you talking about? i have said absolutely nothing about physical appearance. you've been making **** up this entire conversation

Schools have MANDATORY physical exercise.

again, what are you even talking about? you're introducing something completely new to the conversation. schools closing down has absolutely NOTHING to do with PE classes. you attempted to compare schools shutting down to gyms shutting down, which is a terrible comparison, and now you're quite obviously trying to pretend that you were talking about...PE classes? now THAT is laughable

Being at home does not cause a person to exert themselves physically less than at a gym. It's all in your mind.

i never said that you CAN'T exert yourself as much at home. you yet again completely invented a conversation that never happened. what i DID say is that people WILL excercise less at home. there's a reason you still haven't answered my question.
because it exposes the absurdity of your position. but i'll ask it again: WHY. DO. PEOPLE. PAY. FOR. GYM. MEMBERSHIPS?!

If you insist on dying on the elitist hill of needing your gymy gym workout to bump your immune response to the perfect level, let's see some immune PER or immune RPM stats that show what exact levels of exertion are ideal for immune maximization. Because surely you know that exercise can also weaken your immune system as well right?

good lord you're off the rails. again making statements that do not relate to anything i said. never said anything remotely like a personal need to perfectly optimize my immune system. but please, go ahead and don't exercise and tell yourself that maybe your immune system might actually improve. or that gyms are somehow elitist (one of THE most ridiculous things i've heard in a long time). THOSE statement are eminently worthy of an "SMH" response

again, people are going to get less exercise when their gyms are shut down. their immune systems will decine marginally in the meantime. that's simply not debatable. what's certainly debatable is whether it's in the broader public interest to shut down gyms right now. whether protecting mouthbreathing morons from themselves by not responsibly using gym equipment is of greater value than reducing exercise levels

Just go with the flow man. **** is shutting down.

i am going with the flow. again, wtf are you talking about? i merely suggested that it didn't seem NECESSARY to shut down gyms and may actually be counter-productive. i wasn't pitching a fit. i was merely opening it up to discussion. then you come in with your juvenile 'SMH' nonsense, as if i've suggested something preposterous

It's intellectually reasonable to wonder if it's better to open or close gyms.

then why have you been unwilling from the start to engage on that level?

It's not reasonable to use that theoretical ambivalence to suggest that maybe gyms shouldn't be closed.

huh? theoretical ambivalence?

Because overwhelming evidence simply doesn't exist that they should be open, they should obviously be closed.

where is this overwhelming evidence? something tells me you're making **** up again

if the evidence was overwhelming (hint: there IS no real evidence, because we're dealing with a new situation), gyms would have shut down IMMEDIATELY. they didn't. they have and ARE sussing it out day by day. some are still open

And FWIW, I'd guess most employees will still get paid.

not if they're hourly. hourly employees usually don't even have their schedules set more than a week or two in advance

which brings up the next obvious point in this: a gym's decision on whether to close is quite obviously about more than the public health. there are business considerations. employees, attendance, hand sanitizer stocks, etc.
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dougthonus
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Re: Coronavirus 

Post#860 » by dougthonus » Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:05 pm

dice wrote:i specifically said that the corporate tax would be ZERO


Okay, so every wealthy person renounces their citizenship and moves somewhere else. That's a much bigger loop hole actually.

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