2024 Draft Thread - Part II

[Dat2U]

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It's a fine draft if you DON'T have a top 5 pick.

OKC sitting at 12 is probably one of the better spots in the draft to be.

[closg00]

We find ourselves in a #ohsowizards situation, we gotta trade Kuzma for another FRP and hope that we are the ones who hit big on one of the picks.

[tontoz]

According to the wiretap, it's Sarr or Risaccher.

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/275882/Wizards-Looking-To-Re-Sign-Tyus-Jones;-Deciding-Between-Drafting-Alex-Sarr-Zaccharie-Risacher-With-No-2-Pick

And no, I don't think it's a smoke screen. I think those are the consensus top 2 picks right now.

Yep. Looks like our front office will take whoever of those 2 ATL does not pick.

On the Tyus Jones front, I would not resign him. Watching Tyus and Poole play together is torture. Please don’t

Why would they be leaking this a month before the draft?

[TGW]

According to the wiretap, it's Sarr or Risaccher.

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/275882/Wizards-Looking-To-Re-Sign-Tyus-Jones;-Deciding-Between-Drafting-Alex-Sarr-Zaccharie-Risacher-With-No-2-Pick

And no, I don't think it's a smoke screen. I think those are the consensus top 2 picks right now.

Yep. Looks like our front office will take whoever of those 2 ATL does not pick.

On the Tyus Jones front, I would not resign him. Watching Tyus and Poole play together is torture. Please don’t

Why would they be leaking this a month before the draft?

Maybe they got intel that the Spurs want Rissacher (RC Buford was in France to scout him) and are trying to drive up his value. That would probably be my guess.

Re: Tyus. Of course you resign him. I don't know why his play is being attached to Jordan Poole. Poole is his own atmosphere of suck, and that had nothing to do with Tyus.

[payitforward]

"Tank" is just a word. When the ball goes up no one tries to lose.

Tell that to Coach Pop, playing the first half of the season with Sochan at point. And letting Wemby gun from outside.

Or look at our front office, playing for as long as they possibly could with Jordan Poole next to Tyus Jones. Despite all stats saying it was a historically bad pairing. And when Wes was sacrificed as the goat for this action, he was moved up to the front office since he had been a good soldier in the tank.

Teams absolutely do tank with line-ups and roster inefficiencies. We started the year with Muscala and Gallo as our centers.

No _player_ tries to lose, but players on losing teams don't give the same effort as those on squads with a different outlook.

No disagreement -- teams tank.

But, when the ball goes up all the players want to win & try to win. The better they play, the more chance to win, & the better they play, the brighter their futures.

Thus, on 2d thought I doubt you would defend your last clause as a generalization: did Wemby give less effort than a guy on a winning team?

[nate33]

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[The Consiglieri]

There are people in this thread 4x as old as Deni.

Hmmm, I'm 2.1x .

[Endless Loop]

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Wondering what people think of the comp to Steve Kerr. Kerr had the single best 3 point % shooting season in D1 history- 57%, on 199 shots. Kerr set that record as a senior at Arizona in 1988.

[The Consiglieri]

So would I trade him? Depends. What could we get for him at the '25 and '26 deadlines? If we get real, tangible assets, or huge draft capital value? I'd be in. If not, I'd probably sit tight and wait...

But then he is part of the rebuild. He is a material asset that should be considered if it is as a player or as a trade asset. The point that he should be considered like Kuzma is just wrong-headed.

If he continues to improve at his current pace, there will be lots of good trade offers (if someone blows you away with 4 first round picks you take it).

And there are lots of reasons to keep him, he is on a terrific contract through the 2027-28 season, wants to be here and continues to improve.

Haven't looked at this since yesterday and can't remember if I responded already, but if I didn't, I definitely want to underline that I don't view him as Kuzma. Kuzma needs to be traded at some point within the next 13 or 14 months, Deni could be kept or traded, if he's traded, at some point in the next two years and 2 months while his contract is still quite valuable, but he doesn't have to be, I just view him as more valuable as a trade chip in '25-'26 than as a piece of the foundation (unless he becomes mega elite, I don't see that happening, I do see him being good to very good, but not a superstar).

[nate33]

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Wondering what people think of the comp to Steve Kerr. Kerr had the single best 3 point % shooting season in D1 history- 57%, on 199 shots. Kerr set that record as a senior at Arizona in 1988.

I think Reed is much better with the ball than Kerr. Kerr was basically a catch-and-shoot shooting guard. I think Reed has full PG potential, though he's not quite there yet. I compare Reed to Mark Price.

[prime1time]

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Another solid performance by Risacher. I don't like the lack of assists, but Euro ball is different than the NBA. Risacher rarely gets opportuntiies to initiate offense and create. That will be the real challenge. But his shooting has improved so significantly, that on day one, he's plug and play 3 and D. With the ability to come off screens. The knock on Risacher is basically should you draft a guy who's floor is Trey Murphy at two. In a great draft no. But in this draft, with that being his floor and more potential upside on his ability to create I'd say yes.

[NatP4]

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[prime1time]

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Another solid performance by Risacher. I don't like the lack of assists, but Euro ball is different than the NBA. Risacher rarely gets opportuntiies to initiate offense and create. That will be the real challenge. But his shooting has improved so significantly, that on day one, he's plug and play 3 and D. With the ability to come off screens. The knock on Risacher is basically should you draft a guy who's floor is Trey Murphy at two. In a great draft no. But in this draft, with that being his floor and more potential upside on his ability to create I'd say yes.

I'd also point out that he's doing this against legit competition. He's only 19, Murphy Jr. was a Jr in college and only averaged 11.3 a game in his Jr. year.

[nate33]

So would I trade him? Depends. What could we get for him at the '25 and '26 deadlines? If we get real, tangible assets, or huge draft capital value? I'd be in. If not, I'd probably sit tight and wait...

But then he is part of the rebuild. He is a material asset that should be considered if it is as a player or as a trade asset. The point that he should be considered like Kuzma is just wrong-headed.

If he continues to improve at his current pace, there will be lots of good trade offers (if someone blows you away with 4 first round picks you take it).

And there are lots of reasons to keep him, he is on a terrific contract through the 2027-28 season, wants to be here and continues to improve.

Haven't looked at this since yesterday and can't remember if I responded already, but if I didn't, I definitely want to underline that I don't few him as Kuzma. Kuzma needs to be traded at some point within the next 13 or 14 months, Deni could be kept or traded, if he's traded, at some point in the next two years and 2 months while his contract is still quite valuable, but he doesn't have to be, I just view him as more valuable as a trade chip in '25-'26 than as a piece of the foundation (unless he becomes mega elite, I don't see that happening, I do see him being good to very good, but not a superstar).

I get the general concept of why Deni's value can be maximized the most in a trade.

Basically, Deni is valuable because he is a very good player. And he is valuable because he is a very cheap player. The Wizards don't really get much benefit from his cheap contract, so if he could be traded for an even better player who is perhaps a bit more expensive, it would benefit the Wizards even more. And presumably, there is another team willing to take a slight downgrade in talent for a cheaper contract.

The trick is to find the team in that situation. And it's really, really hard. Most really good teams with good players are in title contention and aren't willing to trade down in talent even if it saves them a lot of money. And chances are, the guy they would be trading to get Deni would be older (because not many players are both younger than Deni and better).

A theoretical construct would be something like Deni for Jaylen Brown. Boston saves a boatload of luxtax money and gets under the Second Apron, and we get an upgrade in talent. But would Boston actually do that? Would they risk a small net reduction in talent when they need every scrap of talent to win a title? Likewise, would we do it? Do we want to get older and more expensive even if it makes us a little better in the short term? Another construct would be Deni for Garland, but I think Deni is better straight up, and he is way more valuable when factoring contracts. Deni for Mobley I would certainly do, but Cleveland wouldn't.

The only other alternative would be to trade Deni for a package of picks. But they would have to be either really good picks, or a whole lot of decent picks. I wouldn't trade Deni for the #1 pick in this draft. And I probably wouldn't trade him for anything worse than a top 5 pick in the next draft. And if we are only being offered picks in teens, I would need about four of them to give me enough optimism to believe that the player we draft would be better than Deni. So, will any team meet my demands for Deni? I doubt it.

[The Consiglieri]

...I prefer to use the Wizards model from 2009-2014 because they also completely butchered their early rebuild, not due to keeping a superstar too long, but also by gifting the superstar a near untradable contract AND also butchering the first major piece of the rebuild (the '09 draft pick trade for Mike Miller and Foye vs us taking Johnny Davis.

We won the '10 lottery, ... managed to get an elite PG prospect in '10,...

This time we're ...working with a much worse draft in '24, than we had in '10, and we are also playing in a league that values firsts more than it once did 15 years ago..

2010 was a terrible draft. By far the best player went at #10, & there were only 3 players out of R2 who were even remotely good.

I see no reason to think the league values R1 picks much differently now than if did 15 years ago. What gives you that impression?

...I do agree with prime that in a lot of ways, Deni doesn't make a lot of sense long term because the era of cheap cost control will likely match a period of totally ineffectual, craptacular basketball for us.

Deni is 23 years old.
He's over 2 years younger than Corey Kispert.
There are guys in the upcoming draft who are older than Deni!

#1: We won the #1 overall pick in a draft that had legit stud option prospects at the top and we drafted the best of them as seen at the time.

#2: Teams use lottery protections much more aggressively today, and teams are much less likely to throw in loads of picks in trades, I am even somewhat skeptical that pick swaps like what we got from the Suns will continue if the Suns deal ends up blowing up in their face. Teams simply understand better the value of these cost controlled players. League ownership groups are more analytics driven these days, and while first round pick deals are still happening, I think teams are more circumspect about doing it.

I'm wondering if I explained my reasoning in the post your responding to, or only in a later one. Suffice it to say, I have sound reasoning behind why it might, be worthwhile to trade him, but I emphasize "might". There are two scenarios I see where it wouldn't be:

#1: We land a superstar in '24 or '25 that changes our trajectory radically, a Duncan/Wemby/Lebron kind of once a decade player. That would change everything.

#2: Deni himself becomes one of those, which I find extremely unlikely. More likely, Deni continues to be a good to very good player on a great deal. But if he were to suddenly blossom into mega elite, yeah, you shouldn't trade him.

[AFM]

I wonder if Sheppard would be viewed more favorably if he looked more like an athlete. You all know what I mean and I'm not even joking this time.

[AFM]

Absolutely elite player

NBA comps: Wally Szczerbiak, Steve Kerr, JJ Reddick, Kyle Korver, Doug Collins, Keith Van Horn

[NatP4]

Absolutely elite player

NBA comps: Wally Szczerbiak, Steve Kerr, JJ Reddick, Kyle Korver, Doug Collins, Keith Van Horn

You forgot TJ McConnell

[The Consiglieri]

SGA is a great example of not needing a top pick to draft a great player—a point that PIF endlessly reminds us of.

SGA was the 11th pick in the 2018 draft.

That, imo, debunks the notion that you can predict the quality of a draft even before it happens. Because it’s impossible to tell in advance how a player—or a draft—will turn out. (Unless that player is a LeBron or Wemby.)

Of course you don't "need" a top pick to draft a great player. Look at our very own Gilbert Arenas. Then you have Kobe. And Jokic. You have Kawhi, PG and Jimmy Butler. You also have Giannis. But if those teams really knew what they were getting, they would have traded up to get them no? They wouldn't have risked someone else taking them. Who are the stars that the Wizards have had since 2000. I'm not counting MJ. Maybe you can count Stackhouse. Arenas was a star, we lucked into signing him and then injuries destroyed him. Wizards homers will disagree but at any point during Wall's career was he ever a top 3 pg? I loved Beal but this season exposed him. In a league dominated by stars, those guys simply aren't going to get it done.

How long should the Wizards tank? Until they get a truly generational star. That's how long. If it means trading Kuzma and Poole I'd trade Kuzma and Poole. If it means trading Avdija, I'd trade Avdija. What is the 76ers rebuild without Embiid? What are the Bucks without Giannis? What are the Nuggets without Jokic? The NBA is a star driven league.

I agree fundamentally with everything here, save one. I don't think Beal was suddenly found out this year. Beals prime which is funny because his actual career trajectory perfectly reflects it, was 2016-2017 through 2019-2020. He almost perfectly matches the data for it which finds that players typically begin falling off as they enter their age 28 season, for Beal, his last great season was age 27, but in fairness, that was in a sort of Mad Max imploded roster situation where he was just green lighted in everything and so scored a bazillion points, made the all star game etc and then, the following year in '21-'22 we saw the collapse which mirrors what typically begins for players. The Suns basically acquired a Beal who was mathematically based on the science, already several years into his decline (the math would say he was basically 3 years into the fall off at the point 23-24 kicked off).

Personally that's just being persnickety, Beal was in the hall of good to very good, not great. We haven't had a truly great player in his prime since probably the 1970's, and maybe Webber, although Webber's career went sideways on both us, and later due to injury with Sacramento.

[DCZards]

Even if Deni only becomes a “very good” player, and not a superstar, I would still hesitate to trade him… unless it’s for an upgrade in talent, which, as Nate points out, is difficult to do.

I don’t buy the suggestion that a 28 or 29 yr old Deni will be “too old” to be an important piece 5-6 yrs from now when, hopefully, the Zards are competitive.

Few, if any, competitive teams are made up solely of 20-24 year olds. Most have at least one or two key contributors who are 28 and older. It’s certainly true of all 4 teams in the conference finals. In fact, other than Dallas, all of the teams in the conference finals have 3-4 players 28 or older making significant contributions.

And the one Dallas player is 32 yr old Kyrie—who is a major contributor.

Yes, trade Deni if you get a great deal for him. OTOH, I don’t see the problem with having Deni in a Zards uni when he’s in his prime at 27 or 28 yrs old, especially if he continues to get better…as I think he will.