2014 Draft Thread

[bwgood77]

I have quite a bit of confidence that between McD and Hornacek, whatever picks are made will turn out well for us. Hornacek has already shown he can get the most out of guys other teams have pretty much written off.

Most all lotto picks have the talent to play in the nba. It all really depends on whether or not they end up in the right situation that will allow them to be successful.

[carey]

I have quite a bit of confidence that between McD and Hornacek, whatever picks are made will turn out well for us. Hornacek has already shown he can get the most out of guys other teams have pretty much written off.

Most all lotto picks have the talent to play in the nba. It all really depends on whether or not they end up in the right situation that will allow them to be successful.

I'd downgrade that to many. There have been a lot of lottery busts over the years. A recent study showed that something like 35% of lottery draftees between 2004-2008 are now out of the league.

[Sunsss]

Trading picks because you think you have too many is just silly.

McD doesn't think so.

According to who? He's said many times he would use all off them if he needed to.

“I think one of the things that’s important for people to realize is that we may not draft four players even if we have four picks,” McDonough told NBA.com. “Our preference would probably be to maybe package a few of them."

I think it's more likely than not that we'll not use all of them.

[carey]

I just don't follow the leap in logic. Of course his preference is to package a few of them for a star. Info is saying that trading them just because you have too many is stupid. It has to be the right trade for the right reasons.

[INFORMER-93]

Exactly. No trading the #7 pick for a future first and a second rounder. Ugh.

[bwgood77]

I have quite a bit of confidence that between McD and Hornacek, whatever picks are made will turn out well for us. Hornacek has already shown he can get the most out of guys other teams have pretty much written off.

Most all lotto picks have the talent to play in the nba. It all really depends on whether or not they end up in the right situation that will allow them to be successful.

I'd downgrade that to many. There have been a lot of lottery busts over the years. A recent study showed that something like 35% of lottery draftees between 2004-2008 are now out of the league.

Yes, that study that is in the wiretaps is what I refer to. I still think that most guys that get drafted that high have the talent to play in the league, but timing and situation is everything. There are busts obviously, but I think many guys just never really got the right opportunity and just ended up giving up. Gerald Green was out of the league, but now look at him.

I think good coaching and the right situation is HUGE. The great thing about Hornacek is that he wants to teach young players how to be great...and has already proven he can do that, with people others might have considered borderline nba players. Hornacek himself wasn't the most athletic guy, but he used his smarts to become successful. Hornacek wouldn't even be drafted in today's nba. He was drafted when there were like 7 rounds in the draft (or more). Most all these guys that come out now have raw talent, but they have to find the teacher patient enough to take the time to utilize it all. I think Hornacek is that guy.

[thamadkant]

1. Gettig drafted to the right situation is definitely the most important thing for a rookie... Bar none.

Getting minutes and being utilized by the coach gives rookies confidence and they end up "Getting It" sooner.

[bigfoot]

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/231741/34-Percent-Of-Lottery-Picks-Between-2004-2008-Already-Out-Of-NBA

This supports the push to get high picks as much as possible to minimize the risk of picking up non-NBA talent players.

Where was that study that shows top picks of the last 20 years and their career numbers, all star appearances, MVPs, rings etc.


http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm
Is the summary

Or if you're numbers guy push to acquire many mid-tier picks and the cumulative chance of landing a star is equivalent to getting a top 5 ping-pong ball. Getting a star player can be done in many ways (trade, FA, draft). Then you just have to worry about keeping said star happy (e.g., Kyrie Irving)

[RunDogGun]

I just don't follow the leap in logic. Of course his preference is to package a few of them for a star. Info is saying that trading them just because you have too many is stupid. It has to be the right trade for the right reasons.

Yep, I don't think McD is just going trade some, just because he has too many. I'm sure his goal would be to package a few to get a better asset, if he were to trade some. After that, if nothing comes up to benefit us, I think he will draft a couple guys that might not come over yet.

A guy maybe like Mirotic, who might not come over for a couple years, might be a good example. I don't know what team was stupid enough to trade that pick....oh wait, that was us.

[WeekapaugGroove]

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/231741/34-Percent-Of-Lottery-Picks-Between-2004-2008-Already-Out-Of-NBA

This supports the push to get high picks as much as possible to minimize the risk of picking up non-NBA talent players.

Where was that study that shows top picks of the last 20 years and their career numbers, all star appearances, MVPs, rings etc.


http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm
Is the summary

Or if you're numbers guy push to acquire many mid-tier picks and the cumulative chance of landing a star is equivalent to getting a top 5 ping-pong ball. Getting a star player can be done in many ways (trade, FA, draft). Then you just have to worry about keeping said star happy (e.g., Kyrie Irving)

yup if you three picks with 10-35% of being stars or solid starters the cumulative odds are better than if you trade the three picks for a spot between 7-13. You can pretty much rule out trading up into the top 6 in this draft. No one is trading down if they have a shot at wiggins Parker randle embid Exum or smart (and possibly Gordon). I'm not sure there's a huge difference in what will be available at 8 and say 15 so I'm not sure it's worth moving up.

[WeekapaugGroove]

Do the suns have the lakers 2nd rounder this yr? That's looking like its gonna be a decent pick in the mid 30s

[gaspar]

This supports the push to get high picks as much as possible to minimize the risk of picking up non-NBA talent players.

Where was that study that shows top picks of the last 20 years and their career numbers, all star appearances, MVPs, rings etc.


http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm
Is the summary

Or if you're numbers guy push to acquire many mid-tier picks and the cumulative chance of landing a star is equivalent to getting a top 5 ping-pong ball. Getting a star player can be done in many ways (trade, FA, draft). Then you just have to worry about keeping said star happy (e.g., Kyrie Irving)

yup if you three picks with 10-35% of being stars or solid starters the cumulative odds are better than if you trade the three picks for a spot between 7-13. You can pretty much rule out trading up into the top 6 in this draft. No one is trading down if they have a shot at wiggins Parker randle embid Exum or smart (and possibly Gordon). I'm not sure there's a huge difference in what will be available at 8 and say 15 so I'm not sure it's worth moving up.

A lot can change between now and the draft. Last year Noel and McLemore were supposed to go top-2 and look what happened. Players like Vonleh (IMO he will be a better pro than Randle), LaVine, Harris or Saric could easily go in the top-5 in the draft.

[gaspar]

Do the suns have the lakers 2nd rounder this yr? That's looking like its gonna be a decent pick in the mid 30s

Nope.

[INFORMER-93]

I'm not sure there's a huge difference in what will be available at 8 and say 15 so I'm not sure it's worth moving up.

This.

[INFORMER-93]

A lot can change between now and the draft. Last year Noel and McLemore were supposed to go top-2 and look what happened. Players like Vonleh (IMO he will be a better pro than Randle), LaVine, Harris or Saric could easily go in the top-5 in the draft.

Last year was a very atypical draft, but your overall point is still valid. I honestly don't think any team will want to move out of the top 10.

[Ring_Wanted]

Yeah, the gap at a certain point seems to wide to entertain trading down just for draft assets. I don't know if the line will be at #10, but right now it seems hard to crack a spot over Parker-Embiid-Wiggins-Exum-Smart-Randle-LaVine-Vonleh. Plus wild cards like Gordon, Harris or Saric.

A lot can still happen, withdraws for instance, and there are other nice prospects but I don't know if a team would want to move out of that bunch for say #16 and #22.

The kind part is that there will be something good available to us too, and we are not talent or athleticism deprived, at least not to the point that our hopes depend heavily on the result of this draft. Stealing at least a long term contributor at SF/PF would be huge tho.

[carey]

Anyone familiar with Clint Capela? He jsut put up 21/9/7/6 in France today.

[YouTube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=D29d4g1C80Y[/YouTube]

[WeekapaugGroove]

Not that he would fall to where the suns would pick but I think smart is the most likely of the guys mentioned above to take a draft day slide. There's a lot of teams that already have pgs and there could be concerns about his shooting. He's in trouble if both mil and Orlando end up in the top 3 and take 2 of wiggins Parker and embid. Then ur next pg starved team probably takes Exum (laker maybe) after that he could really fall.

[TOO]

I don't think Marcus Smart falls outta the top 5.

"Yeah, the gap at a certain point seems to wide to entertain trading down just for draft assets. I don't know if the line will be at #10, but right now it seems hard to crack a spot over Parker-Embiid-Wiggins-Exum-Smart-Randle-LaVine-Vonleh. Plus wild cards like Gordon, Harris or Saric."

Cauley-Stein, Hood, and McDermott could all slide right in that area as well. DX has LaVine at 23 to us. Thats fun.

[WeekapaugGroove]

Really you don't think smart fall out the top 5? I think it's less than 50/50 he goes top 5 if everyone declares. Embid wiggins Parker and Exum will for sure go a head of him. Then it's between him and randle at 5. I personally like randle way more.