OT: Democratic Primary Thread

[Clyde_Style]

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If that is true, then Pick Whitmer please

But I'd still rather have Warren

The Post has been one of most trashy Trump rags though

it says about Michelle Obama:

“If they’re smart, they will beg her to do it. And there is a really strong case to be made that she should,” offered another senior Democratic insider.

sure, whatever you say "insider"

I suspect this "article" may be more sabotage more than actual reporting

[GONYK]

No the belief has nothing to do with black voters here. It's just based on the margins of victory in these 4 states on Super Tuesday.

Texas:
Biden 725,562
Bernie 626,330
Warren, 239,237

Maine:
Biden 68,729
Bernie 66,826
Warren 32,055

Minnesota:
Biden 287,553
Bernie 222,431
Warren 114,674

Massachusetts:
Biden 473,861
Bernie 376,990
Warren 303,864

Bernie already polled as Warren voters' second choice comfortably above Biden without her endorsement. And that just tracks, compare his the proposals of the three and it's obvious who aligns closely with who. You take Warren out, add her endorsement and three of those states look guaranteed for Bernie to me, with Texas becoming an much closer race.

That's the numbers side. That cuts into Biden's positive momentum and the mass of positive media he got (especially if Bernie takes Texas). The race looks completely different that way.

And I think Bernie could have respected norms and asked Clyburn for an endorsement, but I don't think it would have changed much. It was poor etiquette, but neutral in terms of electoral impact.

I also don't think the 30% idea looks like a bad bet going into Super Tuesday. Biden was in 4th. Pete was in 2nd. I don't think it's easy to predict Pete dropping out to endorse Biden but Warren sticking around with no chance. If anything, it looked like the opposite was the more likely scenario. She had to take a Super PAC just to stick around because her funding was dried up and Pete had more reason to stay in and test the water.

fam, you know this better than I do, but what do you think the split was with Warren voters siding for Bernie vs Biden?

It broke north of 60/40 without a dropout and endorsement. I think the numbers swing much harder in favor of Bernie nationally under that scenario. Warren's competence as a planner is her big selling point, if she expressed support and confidence in Bernie; her supporters would know she's got a role in his Administration and swing HEAVY in his direction.

This was going to be my question as well, so I'm glad you answered it for Phish.

I'm not sure I'm subscribing to the logic that a Warren endorsement would have solidified things for Bernie though.

In December, the polling on who was the 2nd choice for Warren voters showed the split like this:

Bernie - 30%
Biden - 20%
Pete - 15%

So based on the result of Warren dropping out, Bernie slightly overperformed with Warren voters. If she removed herself from Super Tuesday, and Bernie wins 2 out of the 4 close states that you referenced above, what does that change other than the narrative, slightly?

Biden still ends the night as the delegate leader, and still racks up his wins on Super Tuesday II.

I totally agree that Liz should have dropped when everyone else did and give Bernie a clear shot at Biden, even if it probably doesn't change much. Her staying in was pointless, and once it became clear the party was coalescing to stop Bernie, she should have done her part as a progressive. I do think she was right to withhold her endorsement though, strictly speaking from the POV of her own ambitions to steer the direction of the party down the line.

Getting back to the Clyburn thing, I didn't mean that Bernie should have given a token request for the endorsement. I mean Bernie should have pursued it all out and performed some coalition building to secure it. He was never going anywhere in the primary without the black vote. That was a major takeaway from 2016, IMO.

I think that would have taken his campaign from conditional circumstances (needing the field to stay crowded, relying on the youth vote, hoping new voters show up) to something that has a real foundation.

Was such a thing possible? I don't know, but I doubt Bernie made the effort.

[Clyde_Style]

fam, you know this better than I do, but what do you think the split was with Warren voters siding for Bernie vs Biden?

The idea that Warren voters shoulda/woulda/couda voted for Bernie is based on the premise Sanders and Warren are ideologically aligned.

That completely misunderstands this race and Warren voters.

Warren voters are far more likely than Sanders voters to be deeply committed to defeating Trump. The split between Biden and Sanders votes when Warren dropped out was always headed in Biden's favor the second the consensus perception was Biden was on his way to winning the nomination.

And that perception was cemented after SC because Amy and Pete dropped out and put their support behind Biden. It didn't take the wins on the following Tuesday to create that momentum among Warren supporters. Why is that? BECAUSE MANY WARREN SUPPORTERS VOTED FOR BIDEN ON SUPER TUESDAY. They already peeled off from their favorite candidate and chose what they felt was now the best shot at beating Trump.

That's why if Warren dropped out at the same time as the others it wouldn't have changed much. Warren supporters were switching from Warren to Biden BEFORE she conceded. Then even if Bernie got half of Warren's votes he'd still be without a path to victory. Even a 60/40 split in Bernie's favor wouldn't change the odds much.

Any idea that Warren ruined Bernie's shot is just wrong.

[Phish Tank]

fam, you know this better than I do, but what do you think the split was with Warren voters siding for Bernie vs Biden?

It broke north of 60/40 without a dropout and endorsement. I think the numbers swing much harder in favor of Bernie nationally under that scenario. Warren's competence as a planner is her big selling point, if she expressed support and confidence in Bernie; her supporters would know she's got a role in his Administration and swing HEAVY in his direction.

This was going to be my question as well, so I'm glad you answered it for Phish.

I'm not sure I'm subscribing to the logic that a Warren endorsement would have solidified things for Bernie though.

In December, the polling on who was the 2nd choice for Warren voters showed the split like this:

Bernie - 30%
Biden - 20%
Pete - 15%

So based on the result of Warren dropping out, Bernie slightly overperformed with Warren voters. If she removed herself from Super Tuesday, and Bernie wins 2 out of the 4 close states that you referenced above, what does that change other than the narrative, slightly?

Biden still ends the night as the delegate leader, and still racks up his wins on Super Tuesday II.

I totally agree that Liz should have dropped when everyone else did and give Bernie a clear shot at Biden, even if it probably doesn't change much. Her staying in was pointless, and once it became clear the party was coalescing to stop Bernie, she should have done her part as a progressive. I do think she was right to withhold her endorsement though, strictly speaking from the POV of her own ambitions to steer the direction of the party down the line.

Getting back to the Clyburn thing, I didn't mean that Bernie should have given a token request for the endorsement. I mean Bernie should have pursued it all out and performed some coalition building to secure it. He was never going anywhere in the primary without the black vote. That was a major takeaway from 2016, IMO.

I think that would have taken his campaign from conditional circumstances (needing the field to stay crowded, relying on the youth vote, hoping new voters show up) to something that has a real foundation.

Was such a thing possible? I don't know, but I doubt Bernie made the effort.

Yea I don't necessarily think the shift would have made a drastically huge difference on Super Tuesday in my eyes. Ultimately the 60/40 split has to be evaluated on a state-by-state basis. Maybe it's higher in MA, but lower in TX, idk. I think the only two states worth even consideration were MA and ME and I don't know if those would be enough to turn the tides more closely to Bernie.

A Warren endorsement probably wouldn't have helped reduce the margins of defeat in the South, which ultimately proved to be the beginning of the end for Bernie. I honestly thought Bernie could win Michigan and that loss really surprised me.

[HarthorneWingo]

I was surprised she ended up as SOS for Obama. Didn't expect them to mend fences.

That truce came after Obama became the nominee. The Clintons were not going to campaign for him initially because of all the bad blood. They came up with the quid pro quo at the meeting. Hillary would be SOS and Obama would support her nomination after his 8 years were up and Hillary and Bill would stump for Barack.

Party Unity My Ass (PUMA) was a Clinton supporter thing.

Remember when she said that the reason why she was staying in the race was because someone could assassinate Obama just like Bobby Kennedy? That was classy. But BERNIE!!!!!! NO ONE LIKES HIM!!!!

[Phish Tank]

fam, you know this better than I do, but what do you think the split was with Warren voters siding for Bernie vs Biden?

The idea that Warren voters shoulda/woulda/couda voted for Bernie is based on the premise Sanders and Warren are ideologically aligned.

That completely misunderstands this race and Warren voters.

Warren voters are far more likely than Sanders voters to be deeply committed to defeating Trump. The split between Biden and Sanders votes when Warren dropped out was always headed in Biden's favor the second the consensus perception was Biden was on his way to winning the nomination.

And that perception was cemented after SC because Amy and Pete dropped out and put their support behind Biden. It didn't take the wins on the following Tuesday to create that momentum among Warren supporters. Why is that? BECAUSE MANY WARREN SUPPORTERS VOTED FOR BIDEN ON SUPER TUESDAY. They already peeled off from their favorite candidate and chose what they felt was now the best shot at beating Trump.

That's why if Warren dropped out at the same time as the others it wouldn't have changed much. Warren supporters were switching from Warren to Biden BEFORE she conceded. Then even if Bernie got half of Warren's votes he'd still be without a path to victory. Even a 60/40 split in Bernie's favor wouldn't change the odds much.

Any idea that Warren ruined Bernie's shot is just wrong.

This is generally true and - as an aside - I'ved caution using national polls on initiative (good ones though) such as M4A and GND because they really need to be evaluated on a micro level - state-by-state, county-by-county - to assess the viability of certain candidates.

[Phish Tank]

That truce came after Obama became the nominee. The Clintons were not going to campaign for him initially because of all the bad blood. They came up with the quid pro quo at the meeting. Hillary would be SOS and Obama would support her nomination after his 8 years were up and Hillary and Bill would stump for Barack.

Party Unity My Ass (PUMA) was a Clinton supporter thing.

Remember when she said that the reason why she was staying in the race was because someone could assassinate Obama just like Bobby Kennedy? That was classy. But BERNIE!!!!!! NO ONE LIKES HIM!!!!

I will say the Clinton camp has a special hatred for Bernie more than the Biden camp probably does. The Neera Tandens and - probably Robby Mooks (he was god awful tho) - of the world.

[GONYK]

That truce came after Obama became the nominee. The Clintons were not going to campaign for him initially because of all the bad blood. They came up with the quid pro quo at the meeting. Hillary would be SOS and Obama would support her nomination after his 8 years were up and Hillary and Bill would stump for Barack.

Party Unity My Ass (PUMA) was a Clinton supporter thing.

Remember when she said that the reason why she was staying in the race was because someone could assassinate Obama just like Bobby Kennedy? That was classy. But BERNIE!!!!!! NO ONE LIKES HIM!!!!

I remember when she said that. It was shameful.

[HarthorneWingo]

Rep. James Clyburn is one of the biggest recipients of big pharma money. Hmmm

[DOT]

Warren took away as many votes from Bernie as Bloomberg took from Biden, so it was really evened out

I still think it was a mistake to not rally around her when she started surging. Would've been a real compromise candidate between the progressives and moderates, plus she's young enough to go for a 2nd term

I'm gonna keep saying she should be Biden's VP, then she can run in 24 and we get 12 years of a Dem president, which hasn't been done since FDR/Truman

But also, I've been a big Warren fan from the start, so I'm a bit biased

[Phish Tank]

Warren took away as many votes from Bernie as Bloomberg took from Biden, so it was really evened out

I still think it was a mistake to not rally around her when she started surging. Would've been a real compromise candidate between the progressives and moderates, plus she's young enough to go for a 2nd term

I'm gonna keep saying she should be Biden's VP, then she can run in 24 and we get 12 years of a Dem president, which hasn't been done since FDR/Truman

But also, I've been a big Warren fan from the start, so I'm a bit biased

She'd be 72 if she won the presidency and 76 if she ran and won in 2024.

[Phish Tank]

Rep. James Clyburn is one of the biggest recipients of big pharma money. Hmmm

not surprising. ACA was a big factor. Also, the medical university of South Carolina & the University of South Carolina benefitted from his pharma money thru funding from the NIH.

[Clyde_Style]

fam, you know this better than I do, but what do you think the split was with Warren voters siding for Bernie vs Biden?

The idea that Warren voters shoulda/woulda/couda voted for Bernie is based on the premise Sanders and Warren are ideologically aligned.

That completely misunderstands this race and Warren voters.

Warren voters are far more likely than Sanders voters to be deeply committed to defeating Trump. The split between Biden and Sanders votes when Warren dropped out was always headed in Biden's favor the second the consensus perception was Biden was on his way to winning the nomination.

And that perception was cemented after SC because Amy and Pete dropped out and put their support behind Biden. It didn't take the wins on the following Tuesday to create that momentum among Warren supporters. Why is that? BECAUSE MANY WARREN SUPPORTERS VOTED FOR BIDEN ON SUPER TUESDAY. They already peeled off from their favorite candidate and chose what they felt was now the best shot at beating Trump.

That's why if Warren dropped out at the same time as the others it wouldn't have changed much. Warren supporters were switching from Warren to Biden BEFORE she conceded. Then even if Bernie got half of Warren's votes he'd still be without a path to victory. Even a 60/40 split in Bernie's favor wouldn't change the odds much.

Any idea that Warren ruined Bernie's shot is just wrong.

This is generally true and - as an aside - I'ved caution using national polls on initiative (good ones though) such as M4A and GND because they really need to be evaluated on a micro level - state-by-state, county-by-county - to assess the viability of certain candidates.

One addition to your thought process. Warren lost BADLY in MA. I don't think there could be a stronger indication that Warren voters had already made up their minds Biden was going to be the nominee. Warren has some pull in Mass and it was already too late for both her and for Bernie.

[Clyde_Style]

Warren took away as many votes from Bernie as Bloomberg took from Biden, so it was really evened out

I still think it was a mistake to not rally around her when she started surging. Would've been a real compromise candidate between the progressives and moderates, plus she's young enough to go for a 2nd term

I'm gonna keep saying she should be Biden's VP, then she can run in 24 and we get 12 years of a Dem president, which hasn't been done since FDR/Truman

But also, I've been a big Warren fan from the start, so I'm a bit biased

She'd be 72 if she won the presidency and 76 if she ran and won in 2024.

I'd put Liz in a track suit at age 76 and bet on her lapping Biden and Sanders at ages 64. Woman is a damn energizer bunny.

[HarthorneWingo]

Rep. James Clyburn is one of the biggest recipients of big pharma money. Hmmm

not surprising. ACA was a big factor. Also, the medical university of South Carolina & the University of South Carolina benefitted from his pharma money thru funding from the NIH.

I didn’t know that. Thanks. But how badly do poor South Carolinians need healthcare?

I do not believe that South Carolina expanded Medicaid under the ACA.

[Phish Tank]

The idea that Warren voters shoulda/woulda/couda voted for Bernie is based on the premise Sanders and Warren are ideologically aligned.

That completely misunderstands this race and Warren voters.

Warren voters are far more likely than Sanders voters to be deeply committed to defeating Trump. The split between Biden and Sanders votes when Warren dropped out was always headed in Biden's favor the second the consensus perception was Biden was on his way to winning the nomination.

And that perception was cemented after SC because Amy and Pete dropped out and put their support behind Biden. It didn't take the wins on the following Tuesday to create that momentum among Warren supporters. Why is that? BECAUSE MANY WARREN SUPPORTERS VOTED FOR BIDEN ON SUPER TUESDAY. They already peeled off from their favorite candidate and chose what they felt was now the best shot at beating Trump.

That's why if Warren dropped out at the same time as the others it wouldn't have changed much. Warren supporters were switching from Warren to Biden BEFORE she conceded. Then even if Bernie got half of Warren's votes he'd still be without a path to victory. Even a 60/40 split in Bernie's favor wouldn't change the odds much.

Any idea that Warren ruined Bernie's shot is just wrong.

This is generally true and - as an aside - I'ved caution using national polls on initiative (good ones though) such as M4A and GND because they really need to be evaluated on a micro level - state-by-state, county-by-county - to assess the viability of certain candidates.

One addition to your thought process. Warren lost BADLY in MA. I don't think there could be a stronger indication that Warren voters had already made up their minds Biden was going to be the nominee. Warren has some pull in Mass and it was already too late for both her and for Bernie.

yep, also is more of a sign MA voters are more cautious and pragmatic than what was expected.

[Clyde_Style]

Warren took away as many votes from Bernie as Bloomberg took from Biden, so it was really evened out

I still think it was a mistake to not rally around her when she started surging. Would've been a real compromise candidate between the progressives and moderates, plus she's young enough to go for a 2nd term

I'm gonna keep saying she should be Biden's VP, then she can run in 24 and we get 12 years of a Dem president, which hasn't been done since FDR/Truman

But also, I've been a big Warren fan from the start, so I'm a bit biased

Biden's moment was SC

Warren's moment was Nevada.

She didn't have her moment

After he won Nevada, the NY Times ran a headline "Is Sanders Unstoppable?" and featured it for the rest of the week. So much for media bias. I thought it was a ridiculous headline, but some people thought at that point Bernie was going to steamroll. That's not how those early primaries work. But Warren needed that win to do what Biden did.

I was disappointed, but I saw the writing on the wall with SC as did most everyone. She could have dropped out sooner, but I don't blame her for seeing if there was any window on Super Tuesday. I'd have done the same if I was her and would have dropped out at the same time too.

[Phish Tank]

Rep. James Clyburn is one of the biggest recipients of big pharma money. Hmmm

not surprising. ACA was a big factor. Also, the medical university of South Carolina & the University of South Carolina benefitted from his pharma money thru funding from the NIH.

I didn’t know that. Thanks. But how badly do poor South Carolinians need healthcare?

I do not believe that South Carolina expanded Medicaid under the ACA.

the republican governors (Nimrata Randhawa aka Nikki Haley, Henry McMaster, etc.) certainly didn't help. But they really need it badly.

[Clyde_Style]

Rep. James Clyburn is one of the biggest recipients of big pharma money. Hmmm

says the biggest inhalant of weed money

[HarthorneWingo]

not surprising. ACA was a big factor. Also, the medical university of South Carolina & the University of South Carolina benefitted from his pharma money thru funding from the NIH.

I didn’t know that. Thanks. But how badly do poor South Carolinians need healthcare?

I do not believe that South Carolina expanded Medicaid under the ACA.

the republican governors (Nimrata Randhawa aka Nikki Haley, Henry McMaster, etc.) certainly didn't help. But they really need it badly.

Nimrata?