Moderators: montestewart, LyricalRico, nate33
Ruzious wrote:Zero chance that we get Maxey in addition to Simmons for Beal. He's too valuable to Philly - and on the 2nd year of a dirt cheap rookie contract.
Some random troll wrote:Not to sound negative, but this team is owned by an arrogant cheapskate, managed by a moron and coached by an idiot. Recipe for disaster.
TGW wrote:Ruzious wrote:Zero chance that we get Maxey in addition to Simmons for Beal. He's too valuable to Philly - and on the 2nd year of a dirt cheap rookie contract.
What are you talking about? Of course they would give up Maxey. He's not too valuable...he's a replaceable tweener guard.
Ruzious wrote:TGW wrote:Ruzious wrote:Zero chance that we get Maxey in addition to Simmons for Beal. He's too valuable to Philly - and on the 2nd year of a dirt cheap rookie contract.
What are you talking about? Of course they would give up Maxey. He's not too valuable...he's a replaceable tweener guard.
Not in addition to Simmons. There's absolutely no chance. He's a combo guard in the same way that Jrue Holiday is.
Can you still max out Bradley Beal once you do that? If so I would considerdeneem4 wrote:Il trade Bertans, rui and dinwiddie for wall
I still like Paul Reed. I like Herb Jones. I like Jalen Smith. There's a kid that's on the bench of Golden State or the Minnesota Timberwolves I'm going to look up the namepayitforward wrote:nate33 wrote:FAH1223 wrote:I’d definitely want Curry or Maxey if we are trading Brad to Philadelphia.
I don't think Curry or Maxey are a high priority. Curry is 31 and I think Maxey is a little overrated. He's a nice 3rd guard.
I definitely wouldn't insist on Curry since he would still be a key component for their title run. I'd take Maxey in lieu of one of their picks, I suppose. But I'm okay just taking picks and trying to leave Philly with their best win-now lineup possible.
I didn't mean to suggest that either Curry or Maxey would be a high priority for us in this trade but, rather, that I didn't -- still don't -- see how Philly can move to acquire Beal without sending Curry out -- either to us or to another team involved in this move.
I agree with you that it's a horrible idea but I was curious about it because it's not the worst idea I've ever heard. If anything I might max out the building trade Bradley for John if I got back something in addition really valuable.nate33 wrote:dckingsfan wrote:deneem4 wrote:Il trade Bertans, rui and dinwiddie for wall
Explain your thinking here? Is it because Wall's contract expires after next year?
Given what Houston has (lots of PFs and Cs) are you thinking that they would value Rui as a SF and Dinwiddie would be fine as the first guard off the bench (something Wall has refused to do)?
Seems like a horrible idea to me.
I just don't see the urgency to dump Bertans at such a price. Yeah, he is a negative value contract, but it's not THAT bad. And trying to move him now is basically selling at his all time low point.
Just ask for him include enough salary which I believe Bradley on a Max contract would bedeneem4 wrote:nate33 wrote:dckingsfan wrote:Explain your thinking here? Is it because Wall's contract expires after next year?
Given what Houston has (lots of PFs and Cs) are you thinking that they would value Rui as a SF and Dinwiddie would be fine as the first guard off the bench (something Wall has refused to do)?
Seems like a horrible idea to me.
I just don't see the urgency to dump Bertans at such a price. Yeah, he is a negative value contract, but it's not THAT bad. And trying to move him now is basically selling at his all time low point.
Bertans is filler
Wall is healthy going into his next contract year,
Wish there was a way to add wood into this trade
Some people like to believe fact and or fictionnate33 wrote:deneem4 wrote:Wall is healthy
This post won't age well.
Context is everythingpcbothwel wrote:nate33 wrote:deneem4 wrote:Wall is healthy
This post won't age well.
Who cares if hes healthy. Last year when Healthy, Wall averaged a career low/worst in Assist, AST:TOV ratio, rebounds, steals, scoring efficiency, etc.
If anyone believes Wall is an upgrade over Dinwiddie they are delusional.
payitforward wrote:dckingsfan wrote:gambitx777 wrote:...what he said.
I think the two of you have really encapsulated how folks are feeling about Simmons.
On the one hand - there is no denying the talent....
It's not a question of "talent." I'm talking about what he has done on the court in his now 9326 NBA minutes. He's been one of the absolutely best players in the entire league -- in the top 10 overall.
Not to mention that some of the impact of his elite defense isn't really captured in his numbers.dckingsfan wrote:...On the other hand, there is no denying that there is something "off" (anecdotally - we aren't going to get his mental health records to truly understand where he is at).
Without a doubt. For starters, he's an extremely unusual player. It's hard to compare him to another player. As well, he's a controversial player. Some of that is because he's so unusual, but some of it is off the court stuff.
OTOH, he wouldn't be available for so little -- he wouldn't be available at all! -- were it not for these factors.
The Texans are going to play the <Duff John Sean> Watson this weekpayitforward wrote:DCZards wrote:payitforward wrote:...The reasons to want him, OTOH, are straightforward: in his first 4 seasons, Ben Simmons has been one of the best PGs in the league, if not the absolute best, & one of the top handful of players in the league overall.
PIF, I agree with you regarding Ben’s immense talent. He’d be one of the top one or two players on pretty much any NBA team... but I do believe there is a tremendous risk in making a player who reportedly doesn’t put in the work to improve his deeply flawed game and who quits on his team because the coach and teammates hurt his feelings one of the cornerstones of your franchise.
Zards, what you write here is both relevant & accurate (except I don't think his game is "deeply flawed" -- more on that below).
On the one hand, Simmons will wind up being traded for much much less than he's worth as a player. On the other hand, there's a hard-to-quantify risk associated with his future. It's hard to tell how much he cares about being an NBA player -- or even about basketball. Who knows? Maybe he'll retire early. He's already got a lot of $$. A couple of seasons more, & he'll be really rich! Maybe he won't even wait that long. In fact, people would like to claim that last season his heart wasn't in it.
Then again, after 30 games this year, Philly was 15-15. Last year it was 20-10. & the year before Ben joined the team, the Sixers went 28-54. The very next year, his rookie year, they went 52-30. Was that turnaround all Ben Simmons? No, obviously not! Was Simmons the single biggest factor in it? You bet! He sure was. By far.
Ben Simmons doesn't have a "deeply flawed game." He has one of the best games of any player in the league -- why else would he be, as Zards points out, "one of the top one or two players on pretty much any NBA team"?
First off, let's debunk the idea that he's a problem, a lead weight, on offense. He's not a volume scorer but he scores as many points per 40 minutes as an average PG. Only... he does it at a significantly above average TS%. That's good not bad. That's an above average scorer not a "problem on offense."
Then there's the fact that he gets 70% more defensive boards than is average for a PG. & 2.5 times as many offensive boards as is average for a PG. He also averages almost 35% more assists than PG-average. He blocks 2 shots for every 1 shot a PG usually blocks, & he gets 40% more steals too. OTOH, he fouls a little more than average, & he turns the ball over more as well.
If he didn't do those two things, he'd be the best player in the league bar none. As it is, he's in the top maybe 7-9 overall over the 4 years of his career so far. If a team is willing to take the risk of acquiring him, that's why.
Shai gilgeous-alexander plays like the Wizards need.FAH1223 wrote:
I think Ben Simmons is very wisely pumping the brakes on them making him the fool. He's young he's Rich he's very good and they undervalue him so the hell with themDCZards wrote:payitforward wrote:Then again, after 30 games this year, Philly was 15-15. Last year it was 20-10. & the year before Ben joined the team, the Sixers went 28-54. The very next year, his rookie year, they went 52-30. Was that turnaround all Ben Simmons? No, obviously not! Was Simmons the single biggest factor in it? You bet! He sure was. By far.
This is the essence of my issue with Ben. He knows the Sixers are a much better team with him on the court yet he’s chosen to stay home while his teammates battle to win games. I have no problem whatsoever with Simmons asking to be traded but I do have a problem with him refusing to play while a trade materializes. Because, at least on the surface, he appears to be acting very selfishly.payitforward wrote:Then there's the fact that he gets 70% more defensive boards than is average for a PG. & 2.5 times as many offensive boards as is average for a PG. He also averages almost 35% more assists than PG-average. He blocks 2 shots for every 1 shot a PG usually blocks, & he gets 40% more steals too. OTOH, he fouls a little more than average, & he turns the ball over more as well.
If he didn't do those two things, he'd be the best player in the league bar none. As it is, he's in the top maybe 7-9 overall over the 4 years of his career so far. If a team is willing to take the risk of acquiring him, that's why.
Yes, Simmons is an above average rebounder and shot blocker for a PG. But he's also 6-11, which is at least 5-6 inches taller than the average PG.
I noticed that you didn’t mention that Ben is a significantly poorer FT shooter and 3pt shooter than the average PG. In fact, Ben is a terrible shooter outside of 2-3 feet. That's not good for a perimeter player.
These flaws in Ben’s game may not be “deep” flaws but they are flaws that often put his team at a disadvantage, especially during the playoffs.
I think you are correct about the disadvantage in the playoffs. But you got to understand that Joel embiid is a typical big man in that he dominates the ball and that is the wrong kind of player for Ben Simmons to play with in half court. When JoJo runs out of moves you can't kick it out to Ben for a last-second shotDCZards wrote:payitforward wrote:Then again, after 30 games this year, Philly was 15-15. Last year it was 20-10. & the year before Ben joined the team, the Sixers went 28-54. The very next year, his rookie year, they went 52-30. Was that turnaround all Ben Simmons? No, obviously not! Was Simmons the single biggest factor in it? You bet! He sure was. By far.
This is the essence of my issue with Ben. He knows the Sixers are a much better team with him on the court yet he’s chosen to stay home while his teammates battle to win games. I have no problem whatsoever with Simmons asking to be traded but I do have a problem with him refusing to play while a trade materializes. Because, at least on the surface, he appears to be acting very selfishly.payitforward wrote:Then there's the fact that he gets 70% more defensive boards than is average for a PG. & 2.5 times as many offensive boards as is average for a PG. He also averages almost 35% more assists than PG-average. He blocks 2 shots for every 1 shot a PG usually blocks, & he gets 40% more steals too. OTOH, he fouls a little more than average, & he turns the ball over more as well.
If he didn't do those two things, he'd be the best player in the league bar none. As it is, he's in the top maybe 7-9 overall over the 4 years of his career so far. If a team is willing to take the risk of acquiring him, that's why.
Yes, Simmons is an above average rebounder and shot blocker for a PG. But he's also 6-11, which is at least 5-6 inches taller than the average PG.
I noticed that you didn’t mention that Ben is a significantly poorer FT shooter and 3pt shooter than the average PG. In fact, Ben is a terrible shooter outside of 2-3 feet. That's not good for a perimeter player.
These flaws in Ben’s game may not be “deep” flaws but they are flaws that often put his team at a disadvantage, especially during the playoffs.
Is this the apocalypse or something???DCZards wrote:dckingsfan wrote:Back to the original points. Some see the flaws in Simmons' mental health and game others see the upside of a top 10 player in the L.
One question that I don't see answered. What about the flaws in Beal's game? I don't see him as a top 25 player in the L right now - maybe not even a top 50. And although he isn't terrible on the defensive end, he certainly wouldn't be what you call a two way player.
Beal's game is flawed. But he's certainly a top 50 player....arguably top 25. He certainly was beginning to play like a top 25 player before the health & safety protocol.
Joker is way better I agreepayitforward wrote:9 and 20 wrote:Punting on a prime season of a healthy Embiid is a crime against humanity. That dude, even if he is a bully and kind of a jerk on the court, deserves better. He's a great, great player. Maybe only Jokic better, and that's arguable. Plus, they have a bunch of other players who nicely complement him. They should go all in now and trade Simmons for the best return they can get - tomorrow or next year may be the time Embiid's knees implode.
Couldn't ask for a better example of how people over-rate scoring.
Jokic gets 27% more defensive boards than Embiiid, but that doesn't weigh in the assessment of the two.
Oh, and 65% more offensive boards too. 80% more assists. & a significantly higher TS% too. It was closer last year, but Embiid has never had a year when he was as good as Jokic.
Embiid is a terrific player, don't get me wrong! But, he's not on a level with Jokic.
Still right on to say that it'd be ridiculous to waste a prime season of a player as good as he is.
Yeah and the difference is not so great that I wouldn't take Joker over Joel embiid but you got a point thereRuzious wrote:But what about defense? Just watching them play, it appears to be obvious that Embiid is far superior defensively than Jokic. I'm not sure that Embiid's defense makes him overall a better player than Jokic, but it's extraordinarily hard to win in the playoffs without a good defensive big.
I disagree with that 100%. Beautiful you're like Bill Russell to just run and make embiid have to play defense and that will take his wind that is how you stop a big guy like that he's run his legs offnate33 wrote:Ruzious wrote:But what about defense? Just watching them play, it appears to be obvious that Embiid is far superior defensively than Jokic. I'm not sure that Embiid's defense makes him overall a better player than Jokic, but it's extraordinarily hard to win in the playoffs without a good defensive big.
Agreed. I'd give Jokic the edge over Embiid, but it's only a small one.
Jokic is obviously a better playmaker and it's incredible that he can essentially be the team's PG, but he is not the intimidator that Embiid is on D. Also, I think Jokic's offensive style is one that you can eventually adapt to in a 7-game series and figure out how to take away his passing lanes. There is no adapting to Embiid no matter how much you've seen him play. He really can't be stopped without a double-team.
Okay since you put it that way.Ruzious wrote:Meh, in past years I've seen metrics that have Jokic among the worst defenders in the NBA. I think the answer is somewhere in the middle.
Really nice post I got to read this but I think I agree with all of thisFrichuela wrote:Trading Beal should be seriously contemplated at this deadline, particularly now that he seems to be back to his old self...
However, if the powers that be are hell bent on keeping Beal, I would look to acquire Sabonis from the Pacers as long as the price is not too hefty.
I'd be prepared to offer Kuzma, Rui and Kispert plus NO 2022 1st (lottery protected from trading Harrell to CHA) for Sabonis+Brissett.
The Harrell trade could net us Ish + Carey (or ideally JT Thor) in return. In this case I'd trade Neto to the Cavs for SAS 2022 2nd they own (+Windler). I'd also contemplate trading Bryant for some guard help and 2nd round draft compensation.
Imagine this roster:
Dinwiddie/Ish/Ayayi
Beal/Holiday/Guard from Bryant trade
KCP/Brissett/Windler
Deni/Bertans/Todd
Sabonis/Gafford/Carey (or JT Thor)
+ 2 new 2nd round picks.
I think the pairing of Deni+Sabonis could be great, with Deni providing enough defense and weak side rim protection (he is averaging 1.2 blocks per 36). At short stints, we could even contemplate playing Sabonis as PF with Gafford a C against big teams like the Cavs or the Sixers.
I have dreams of Wes using Sabonis like a Jokic-light point-center version running the offense and surrendered by cutters and shooters...
Obviously for Indiana to contemplate this, we would need Rui to get back to playing for a few games at a decent level and Kuzma to keep it up.
They would be a better team with Simmons and without Joel embiid than the other way aroundpayitforward wrote:GoneShammGone wrote:nate33 wrote:Agreed. I'd give Jokic the edge over Embiid, but it's only a small one.
Jokic is obviously a better playmaker and it's incredible that he can essentially be the team's PG, but he is not the intimidator that Embiid is on D. Also, I think Jokic's offensive style is one that you can eventually adapt to in a 7-game series and figure out how to take away his passing lanes. There is no adapting to Embiid no matter how much you've seen him play. He really can't be stopped without a double-team.
Agree about Jokic's defense when it comes to the "eye-test" but its worth noting that 538's Raptor metric has Jokic as the best defender in the NBA (!): https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nba-player-ratings/
I was kind of shocked when I saw that. Its worth digging into the Raptor methodology a little to see what's going on. They have a pretty thorough explanation of their methods: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/introducing-raptor-our-new-metric-for-the-modern-nba/
Bascially, they have a big on/off component which they combine with a bunch of player tracking statistics. From the link above:On defense, it looks at factors like how often the player was the nearest defender on an opponents’ shot and how often those shots went in, how many points and rebounds were scored by opponents at the defender’s position, and how often the player induced offensive fouls.
Fwiw, this is the same defensive metric that loves Deni Avdija. Looks like Jokic does a good job contesting shots at the very least. As for Embiid, Raptor thinks his defense is good, but not really close to Jokic.
All these points about Embiid's defense are perfectly valid -- & player comparisons can never be exact, above all between two really outstanding players.
As to Raptor, it's mystery meat, despite the "pretty thorough explanation." If I can't check a complex metric by calculating it myself (or at least knowing that the tools & methodologies are available for someone else to check it), that metric is not much help.
Embiid is obviously a tremendous player. OTOH, after 40 games last year, Philly was 28-12. Right now, they're 19-16. & if you account for home & away games being different in number, they'd be either 1 or 2 games above .500 right now.
There's been one significant change to the team, & it wasn't Joel Embiid. They don't have their best player: Ben Simmons.