Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVIII

[payitforward]

Why would I hate Rui Hachimura?

I don't -- he seems a great kid, & I hope he becomes a tremendous NBA player & proves me wrong.

I just think it was a mistake to take him #9 in the 2020 draft.

Hey, you & everyone know that I really like Brandon Clarke, right? But, it would also have been a mistake to take Brandon Clarke #9 in the 2020 draft.

There was enough talent in this draft that trading down would have gotten a more valuable set of assets. Had we traded our #9 to Boston for their #20 & #22, for example, we could have gotten Brandon Clarke & Matisse Thybulle. Just one example.

If I think that Clarke & Thybulle would have been a better haul than Rui, that's altogether different from "PIF hates Rui."

Is it really hard to distinguish between these simple things?

PIF, the way you talk about how the Zards should have traded the #9 pick for two later picks (which I agree with in principle) makes me think you're certain that a trade like that was an option for the Zards. Do you have any evidence of that?

That's a solid, valid point, Zards. On previous occasions when we discussed this, I did point out that of course I can't know if one or another particular trade was available.

Now, of course some kind of a trade down is always possible ("Hey, I've got the 5th pick in the draft. I'll give it to you for the 24th & 25th picks, which you have. What do you say?" "Ummm, ok...."). Whether the one I suggested -- our #9 for Ainge's #s 20 & 22 -- I can't know for sure.

What makes me think so, however, was Ainge saying before the draft that he didn't want 3 rookies (then he wound up w/ 4!). Plus the fact that he did trade away the #20 pick & got less for it than we'd have been offering. Plus the values match well on Kevin Pelton's chart -- http://nbasense.com/draft-pick-trade-value/2/kevin-pelton-2.

Still... doesn't mean it could have been done.

[payitforward]

There is a real strong chance TS did his due diligence and couldn't find a good deal....

I don't think so, gamby. I think it's more likely that he was all in on Rui & that Ted was at least partly the driver of that. Because of the marketing pluses to picking him.

Moreover, though I wish he'd traded down, I could also & easily see where Tommy might not have felt quite secure enough in his position to make a radical move of that kind. Keep in mind that he had not yet been chosen as the Wizards GM on draft night. He was still "interim."

He might not have felt he had quite that much freedom. And... he might have been right! Who knows? In any case, I give him a pass on this draft. Make sense?

[Shoe]

I can't believe the Ben Simmons talk here. The dude is not cut out to be a Wizard. With his representation he's a trade demand guy waiting to happen.

Simmons is good, but his jumpshot is completely broken. You have to wonder if you can win with a guy like that unless he's playing center.

Beyond his game, I just don't think Simmons would appreciate downgrading from the Sixers to the Wizards.

[gambitx777]

It's totally possible he found a trade and Ted shot it down too

There is a real strong chance TS did his due diligence and couldn't find a good deal....

I don't think so, gamby. I think it's more likely that he was all in on Rui & that Ted was at least partly the driver of that. Because of the marketing pluses to picking him.

Moreover, though I wish he'd traded down, I could also & easily see where Tommy might not have felt quite secure enough in his position to make a radical move of that kind. Keep in mind that he had not yet been chosen as the Wizards GM on draft night. He was still "interim."

He might not have felt he had quite that much freedom. And... he might have been right! Who knows? In any case, I give him a pass on this draft. Make sense?

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[payitforward]

Sure... that's possible. Doesn't seem likely (you'd expect some rumor-leak of something like that), but it's certainly possible.

[WallToWall]

....so... as we get closer to the trade deadline, which teams out there are doing worse than expected, or are making a playoff push, and would be interested in trades?

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[nate33]

....so... as we get closer to the trade deadline, which teams out there are doing worse than expected, or are making a playoff push, and would be interested in trades?

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I don't think anyone really wants our guys except for Bertans, and I really don't think he is available. Someone would have to blow us away with a trade proposal. One problem is that most of the teams who might really want him and have the picks to make the trade (Philly, Portland, Houston) have long term luxury tax problems so they won't value his Bird Rights. Either that, or they're a team like the Lakers with nothing to offer in a trade.

Mahinmi's contract is too big and the teams that need him don't have the salary ballast to make the trade work.

Ish is a perfect fit on our roster and I think we will value him more than anyone else. I think we want him next year because Wall will probably be load managed and not play in back-to-backs, so they'll want a guy who can step into the starter's role every 4th game or so.

IT sucks and nobody wants him.

The one other guy who might be interesting is McRae. I'd like to keep him next year, particularly if he will only cost the vet minimum or his Early Bird Rights (175% of the vet minimum); but if we believe the market for McRae is higher than what we are willing to pay this summer, we might consider trading him right now for value.

[gambitx777]

I also think that if we view Mathews as a keeper and someone offered us a pick or a young player for him then maybe you move McRae. I agree someone would have to offer the farm for bertains at this point which Philly or Boston could. But I doubt it. IT needs cut and ish isn't moving any where. Year Ian's contract is an issue cuz Dallas could have given up Lee and Roby for him and kept the second and beef in the same spot with wcs

....so... as we get closer to the trade deadline, which teams out there are doing worse than expected, or are making a playoff push, and would be interested in trades?

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I don't think anyone really wants our guys except for Bertans, and I really don't think he is available. Someone would have to blow us away with a trade proposal. One problem is that most of the teams who might really want him and have the picks to make the trade (Philly, Portland, Houston) have long term luxury tax problems so they won't value his Bird Rights. Either that, or they're a team like the Lakers with nothing to offer in a trade.

Mahinmi's contract is too big and the teams that need him don't have the salary ballast to make the trade work.

Ish is a perfect fit on our roster and I think we will value him more than anyone else. I think we want him next year because Wall will probably be load managed and not play in back-to-backs, so they'll want a guy who can step into the starter's role every 4th game or so.

IT sucks and nobody wants him.

The one other guy who might be interesting is McRae. I'd like to keep him next year, particularly if he will only cost the vet minimum or his Early Bird Rights (175% of the vet minimum); but if we believe the market for McRae is higher than what we are willing to pay this summer, we might consider trading him right now for value.

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[payitforward]

....so... as we get closer to the trade deadline, which teams out there are doing worse than expected, or are making a playoff push, and would be interested in trades?

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I don't think anyone really wants our guys except for Bertans, and I really don't think he is available. ...The one other guy who might be interesting is McRae....

Well, obviously plenty of teams would want Beal -- so I conclude that you didn't mean to be taking a comprehensive look at our roster.

I'm pretty sure there would be plenty of interest in Troy Brown, Thomas Bryant, Rui, Bonga, Wagner & maybe even AP. But, I don't imagine any of those guys are available (except of course in some kind of one-sidedly advantageous deal).

In the interview posted yesterday, Brad says "I think we'll make a move" around the deadline.

If they trade a young guy for a veteran, which is what I fear of course, my interest in the team will drop precipitously.

[nate33]

....so... as we get closer to the trade deadline, which teams out there are doing worse than expected, or are making a playoff push, and would be interested in trades?

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I don't think anyone really wants our guys except for Bertans, and I really don't think he is available. ...The one other guy who might be interesting is McRae....

Well, obviously plenty of teams would want Beal -- so I conclude that you didn't mean to be taking a comprehensive look at our roster.

I'm pretty sure there would be plenty of interest in Troy Brown, Thomas Bryant, Rui, Bonga, Wagner & maybe even AP. But, I don't imagine any of those guys are available (except of course in some kind of one-sidedly advantageous deal).

In the interview posted yesterday, Brad says "I think we'll make a move" around the deadline.

If they trade a young guy for a veteran, which is what I fear of course, my interest in the team will drop precipitously.

I really don't think they'll do something like that, but then, I look at the standings and see that we're only 3 games out of the 8th seed and I start to worry.

And yes, with respect to trades, I was only looking at potential trades involving veterans who are not part of our future.

[gambitx777]

I would also be very upset by trying to add late season help for no reason . But ! I do feel that we have a good chance to seel high on guys like Ian, McRae, and Ish. I keep looking for Philly to call us with a Z.smith and a second offer for McRae.

....so... as we get closer to the trade deadline, which teams out there are doing worse than expected, or are making a playoff push, and would be interested in trades?

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I don't think anyone really wants our guys except for Bertans, and I really don't think he is available. ...The one other guy who might be interesting is McRae....

Well, obviously plenty of teams would want Beal -- so I conclude that you didn't mean to be taking a comprehensive look at our roster.

I'm pretty sure there would be plenty of interest in Troy Brown, Thomas Bryant, Rui, Bonga, Wagner & maybe even AP. But, I don't imagine any of those guys are available (except of course in some kind of one-sidedly advantageous deal).

In the interview posted yesterday, Brad says "I think we'll make a move" around the deadline.

If they trade a young guy for a veteran, which is what I fear of course, my interest in the team will drop precipitously.

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[gambitx777]

I have a good feelings we make moves but I think bertains is a keeper and the tram sees him as such. But I think we might sell high on Ian and McRae. AP and mathews are more than serviceable replacements and ish too might be a sell high candidate. Cutting IT and bringing in a guy like Jerian Grant could be a good move

I don't think anyone really wants our guys except for Bertans, and I really don't think he is available. ...The one other guy who might be interesting is McRae....

Well, obviously plenty of teams would want Beal -- so I conclude that you didn't mean to be taking a comprehensive look at our roster.

I'm pretty sure there would be plenty of interest in Troy Brown, Thomas Bryant, Rui, Bonga, Wagner & maybe even AP. But, I don't imagine any of those guys are available (except of course in some kind of one-sidedly advantageous deal).

In the interview posted yesterday, Brad says "I think we'll make a move" around the deadline.

If they trade a young guy for a veteran, which is what I fear of course, my interest in the team will drop precipitously.

I really don't think they'll do something like that, but then, I look at the standings and see that we're only 3 games out of the 8th seed and I start to worry.

And yes, with respect to trades, I was only looking at potential trades involving veterans who are not part of our future.

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[WallToWall]

I have a good feelings we make moves but I think bertains is a keeper and the tram sees him as such. But I think we might sell high on Ian and McRae. AP and mathews are more than serviceable replacements and ish too might be a sell high candidate. Cutting IT and bringing in a guy like Jerian Grant could be a good move

Well, obviously plenty of teams would want Beal -- so I conclude that you didn't mean to be taking a comprehensive look at our roster.

I'm pretty sure there would be plenty of interest in Troy Brown, Thomas Bryant, Rui, Bonga, Wagner & maybe even AP. But, I don't imagine any of those guys are available (except of course in some kind of one-sidedly advantageous deal).

In the interview posted yesterday, Brad says "I think we'll make a move" around the deadline.

If they trade a young guy for a veteran, which is what I fear of course, my interest in the team will drop precipitously.

I really don't think they'll do something like that, but then, I look at the standings and see that we're only 3 games out of the 8th seed and I start to worry.

And yes, with respect to trades, I was only looking at potential trades involving veterans who are not part of our future.

Word is that we are building around the folks we have. So that means, no wholesale changes. The belief is that a core that includes Beal, Wall, and the young kids will need to be kept. That leaves just the other vets to be traded. Which playoff contending team would want any of them, I wonder?
EDIT: On further thought, we do have our draft picks to trade. I can see us trade away the second round picks in a package with some of the vets for a young player and ballast.

[payitforward]

Oh... what a terrible idea that would be! To trade R2 picks. Any picks for that matter.

You would think that no one understood the reason for the mess we're in. You would think that there was any reason at all to be looking for success by standing pat. No one in our FO can possibly be that stupid; I can't believe we'll be trading picks.

I stick with what I read that Tommy Sheppard said: "We're going to build this thing the right way -- patiently."

[nate33]

Oh... what a terrible idea that would be! To trade R2 picks. Any picks for that matter.

You would think that no one understood the reason for the mess we're in. You would think that there was any reason at all to be looking for success by standing pat. No one in our FO can possibly be that stupid; I can't believe we'll be trading picks.

I stick with what I read that Tommy Sheppard said: "We're going to build this thing the right way -- patiently."

The only argument for trading picks is consolidation. We project to have 10 guys next year who are in their 1st, 2nd or 3rd season:

Bonga
Brown
Bryant
Hachimura
Wagner
Mathews
Schofield
Pasecniks
2020 1st
2020 2nd

It is difficult to develop a team with so much youth at once - particularly if we are trying to win now because of the presence of Wall, Beal and Bertans. I could understand some type of deal where we combine 2 or 3 of those assets into one better asset. Those trades are always easier said than done though. Very few teams would like to take the other side of a consolidation trade.

[gambitx777]

The only way I see us trading picks. Is if we get extra picks by the dead line ( like we more McRae and Ian for some seconds ) and do a move up Or we do a move back to get extra assets. Both of which I am ok with! I don't see us moving any young guys. There isn't one young guy on the team that hasn't done well enough to want to keep. If I had to pick one it would be admiral, he's been decent but I would be ok moving him over any other young player on the team. McRae to me is the most expendable positive asset we have on the team. We have Beal the starter TBJ and Bonga who both play the wing. And we have Mathews and Sannon under some sort of control. Mathews has showed me enough to wanna keep him long term and Sannon is playing very well this year over seas. So if a team like Philly feels desperate enough to toss a second at us or a young asset for McRae. I'd do that all day long and twice on Tuesday

Oh... what a terrible idea that would be! To trade R2 picks. Any picks for that matter.

You would think that no one understood the reason for the mess we're in. You would think that there was any reason at all to be looking for success by standing pat. No one in our FO can possibly be that stupid; I can't believe we'll be trading picks.

I stick with what I read that Tommy Sheppard said: "We're going to build this thing the right way -- patiently."

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[nate33]

The only way I see us trading picks. Is if we get extra picks by the dead line ( like we more McRae and Ian for some seconds ) and do a move up Or we do a move back to get extra assets. Both of which I am ok with! I don't see us moving any young guys. There isn't one young guy on the team that hasn't done well enough to want to keep. If I had to pick one it would be admiral, he's been decent but I would be ok moving him over any other young player on the team. McRae to me is the most expendable positive asset we have on the team. We have Beal the starter TBJ and Bonga who both play the wing. And we have Mathews and Sannon under some sort of control. Mathews has showed me enough to wanna keep him long term and Sannon is playing very well this year over seas. So if a team like Philly feels desperate enough to toss a second at us or a young asset for McRae. I'd do that all day long and twice on Tuesday

Oh... what a terrible idea that would be! To trade R2 picks. Any picks for that matter.

You would think that no one understood the reason for the mess we're in. You would think that there was any reason at all to be looking for success by standing pat. No one in our FO can possibly be that stupid; I can't believe we'll be trading picks.

I stick with what I read that Tommy Sheppard said: "We're going to build this thing the right way -- patiently."

Agreed.

The more I think about it, the more I think McRae isn't really necessary next season. By then, we'll have Wall back and Brown should be a bit better. Those 2 guys along with Ish and Beal (and maybe our pick) should give us enough ball-handling and decision-making to render McRae superfluous.

McRae is really helpful at the moment, but not next year. If we can get value for him, we should strongly consider it. Another advantage to trading him is that it will result in us forcefeeding Brown more ball-handling possessions this season and hopefully accelerate his development.

And don't get me wrong. I really like McRae. But all assets should be viewed in context. Other teams may have more need for McRae's skillset that we do and would be willing to pay more than we are. If that's the case, we may be better off with a 2nd round pick or some other asset in place of him. McRae will be 29 in two months.

[DCZards]

Oh... what a terrible idea that would be! To trade R2 picks. Any picks for that matter.

You would think that no one understood the reason for the mess we're in. You would think that there was any reason at all to be looking for success by standing pat. No one in our FO can possibly be that stupid; I can't believe we'll be trading picks.

I stick with what I read that Tommy Sheppard said: "We're going to build this thing the right way -- patiently."

I dunno PIF. Seems to me that no draft picks should be deemed untradeable. We say that about the Zards current players and the same is true about draft picks, especially second round picks, imo. If the right deal comes along for a quality, relatively young player who fills a need, I’d be all over it, even if it meant giving up a second round pick. (That scenario is probably not going to happen but I wouldn't rule it out.)

Given that the Zards and Sheppard have shown that they are all-in with Beal & Wall it’s clear that they are looking for a quick rebuild as much (or more) than a patient rebuild. It's mistake to believe that the only way to rebuild is through the draft.

[payitforward]

Zards -- of course, you are right. Never say never.

My reaction was rather to the overall practice -- of which we've seen so much these last many years. To under-valuing R2 picks or, really, all draft picks. I.e. undervaluing the draft in favor of picking up guys who "can help us now."

Now goes by in a hurry, as we figure out increasingly with age! Slow rebuilding for ultimate quality is what I favor.

Put it another way. If someone trades a player for a R2 pick, the assumption has to be that the guy you would take with the pick would likely have better long-term upside than the guy get you for the pick. Otherwise, why does anyone trade the player? To get someone with similar upside but who may not develop?

In short, if I want you to give me a dollar today, I've got to give you back a dollar plus interest over time. Sometimes a dollar now is worth that, worth paying back more in future value. If it's going to get me something I need right now. Goes without saying. But, to me, what the Wizards need is to contend for a title -- & there's no trade of any kind that will make that happen "right now." In fact, if over and over we trade for improved mediocrity now, we will never contend.

That's what we've done for a long time, for the whole of Ernie's tenure -- the first really notable example was the Okariza trade. The worst was trading a lottery pick for Kieff, who was going to "help us now."

I don't want to return to that practice. Hence my immediate reaction. There are exceptions, of course, as there are to everything. Happy to grab one of those!

[gambitx777]

Like let's say for example. We trade McRae for a higher second this year. And we take that second our second and say admiral. And move up to the late loto. That I would view as worth it imo.

Zards -- of course, you are right. Never say never.

My reaction was rather to the overall practice -- of which we've seen so much these last many years. To under-valuing R2 picks or, really, all draft picks. I.e. undervaluing the draft in favor of picking up guys who "can help us now."

Now goes by in a hurry, as we figure out increasingly with age! Slow rebuilding for ultimate quality is what I favor.

Put it another way. If someone trades a player for a R2 pick, the assumption has to be that the guy you would take with the pick would likely have better long-term upside than the guy get you for the pick. Otherwise, why does anyone trade the player? To get someone with similar upside but who may not develop?

In short, if I want you to give me a dollar today, I've got to give you back a dollar plus interest over time. Sometimes a dollar now is worth that, worth paying back more in future value. If it's going to get me something I need right now. Goes without saying. But, to me, what the Wizards need is to contend for a title -- & there's no trade of any kind that will make that happen "right now." In fact, if over and over we trade for improved mediocrity now, we will never contend.

That's what we've done for a long time, for the whole of Ernie's tenure -- the first really notable example was the Okariza trade. The worst was trading a lottery pick for Kieff, who was going to "help us now."

I don't want to return to that practice. Hence my immediate reaction. There are exceptions, of course, as there are to everything. Happy to grab one of those!

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