Official Raptors 2011 NBA Draft Thread, Part 3

[just23]

1. Irving
2. Williams
3. Sullinger
4. Jonas
5. Kanter

I'm not too interested in Perry Jones right now. With all his talent he can't rebound or block shots at the NCAA level. Just sounds like he's soft and this team has had enough soft players. Also, I know not a lot of people here are high on Sullinger, but from what little I've seen of him, he's a pure post player. Not a face up forward, but a legit power forward. When was the last time we had a true post scorer..... oh wait never. Might be a nice change. Plus, I hear he sets a mean pick, so he could be great for guys like Demar and Bayless to help get them better looks and drives to the net. Best of all, he'd make Bargnani less necessary than ever. A real post scorer is more valuable than a perimeter big man any day.

[Double Helix]

My favorite players for the Raptors at the moment are:

1) Kyrie Irving

Reasons: Best prospect for this team in this draft.

2) Derrick Williams if he can play SF.

Reasons: If he can play SF he's a lot more intriguing to me. If he's seen as a guy that could only play the 4 spot he moves down a lot for me.

3) Harrison Barnes

Reasons: I'm trusting the hype, hoping he's a late bloomer and trying to imagine a nice SG/SF combo with him and Demar.

4) Jonas Valanciunas

Reasons: I like him better than Kanter. He's an energy guy right now with good coordination and a he seems to think pretty well out there. I question his ability to defend right now but I'm hoping he can be moulded. I'm worried that Kanter could be a better version of Daniel Orton in that he's getting mostly hyped due to his body and I question his length/height/athleticism as a defender at the next level.

5) Perry Jones

Reasons: BC had good luck with Amare and Jones is even more hyped and heralded and less one-dimensional than Amare was coming out of high school.

6) Terrence Jones

Reasons: I see him as a SF and I think his ball handling ability will become more apparent in workouts. I like his inside game, offensive rebounding ability and shot blocking at the SF spot. I think he'd work well with Bargnani and Derozan because of where he does his damage and the different things he brings to table. If those skills transfer well to the NBA he'd be a special SF.

7) Jerryd Sullinger

Reasons: This low down is unlikely but if we were still here I'd have to think long and hard about it. I really don't get a good feeling about this guy at all and I've watched him play a lot and looked for positives. I get serious Michael Sweetney/Shaun May impressions in that I think he's a college star that won't dominate at the next level and I much prefer Amir/Ed to him right now. I'd mostly grab him to look to make a trade involving him or any of our other bigs.

8) Alec Burks

Reasons: I'm getting poor man's Brandon Roy vibes from him in this draft. I can see him getting drafted late lottery and becoming a nice bargain for whomever gets him.

9) Kemba Walker

Reasons: If I had the impression he could lead a team I'd probably move him up a spot but right now I'm not getting that. Still, he's blessed with a lot of elite attributes for a scoring PG and I'd be willing to gamble on the idea of him becoming more of a pure point at the NBA level.

10) Enes Kanter

Reasons: Similar to Sullinger, I'm not very high on him but this late into it if he was still there and all the other guys I like were gone I'd take him. He seems short, un-athletic and as a result of both likely not the defensive anchor we're hoping for there.

[Lionel Messi]

Damn, what a weak draft. Derrick Williams is your number 2? I feel like he wouldn't crack the top 6 last year and last year's draft wasn't all that great either.

So many of these guys have such a high bust potential. I really hope we land Irving.

[5DOM]

There is a difference between wishing a player turns out like you think to seeing enough evidence that he can become what you want him to be. Offensively, Barnes has been a one-trick pony this year, and not a particularly good one. You look for evidence that he could be elite, but a player who shoots 40% from the field and doesn't drive the basket is surely not worthy of a top 3 pick. The onus is on Barnes to show during the ACC playoffs and NCAA tournament that he's more than a spot up shooter. The same can be said about Jones. Does he have multiple elite skills, or is he the next Stromile Swift, both in skillset and character.

With a top 5 pick, even in a weak draft, you at least want to make an evidence-based selection rather than a emotional selection. Down around 10-15th pick, you can gamble more on faith or hope, but that isn't going to cut it with a top 5 pick. Between what they show when they play and how they do in workouts, you want to see multiple tools, and a motor that suggests they will apply themselves to improving both strengths and weaknesses.

That's why I can't exclude Kemba Walker at around 5th or 6th pick, because he has a shot, speed, leadership, good lateral quicks to defend, a low turnover rate, has improved from year to year (big improvement this season) and he has big stones. I don't yet see Barnes or Jones displaying multiple skills yet, although I am quite willing to change my mind after the next month.

Good post I agree with.

[TheDunc]

Derrick Williams isnt talked about much anymore but can he really play the 3? Any nba comparisons? ive heard a more athletic corliss williamson. I wonder how bc's draft board is looking. For some reason i have a feeling if he cant get Kyrie Irving he will either go after Perry Jones or Harrison Barnes.

[Rhettmatic]

Damn, what a weak draft. Derrick Williams is your number 2? I feel like he wouldn't crack the top 6 last year and last year's draft wasn't all that great either.

So many of these guys have such a high bust potential. I really hope we land Irving.

Me too. Assuming we don't begin tanking more aggressively and don't luck out in the lottery, I'd hope BC is as aggressive as possible in trying to move up to land Irving.

Derrick Williams isnt talked about much anymore but can he really play the 3? Any nba comparisons? ive heard a more athletic corliss williamson. I wonder how bc's draft board is looking. For some reason i have a feeling if he cant get Kyrie Irving he will either go after Perry Jones or Harrison Barnes.

To me, he's a 4, through and through. I think asking him to play the 3 would minimize his strengths and draw attention to his weaknesses.

He's a good prospect but if we were going to draft a 4 I'd prefer Jared Sullinger.

[TheDunc]

Quick question i have, why was Derrick Williams considered just an ok athlete last year and now im watching video of him and hes almost jumping out of the gym. He seems to have very good athletism for his size. What are his lateral quicks like? If Williams ends up testing out as a very good athlete, he might become my second favourite prospect after Irving

[Young_Buc]

If Kanter were 2-3 inches taller he would be number two on my Draft Board behind Irving.

I currently have them slated

1. Irving
2. Harrison Barnes (his "it" factor to me screams something of a Paul Pierce)
3. Derrick Williams (if he can play the 3)
4. Enes Kanter
5. Terrence Jones
6. Sullinger
7. Perry Jones

Stay away:
Kemba Walker
Jonas

[TheDunc]

Damn, what a weak draft. Derrick Williams is your number 2? I feel like he wouldn't crack the top 6 last year and last year's draft wasn't all that great either.

So many of these guys have such a high bust potential. I really hope we land Irving.

Me too. Assuming we don't begin tanking more aggressively and don't luck out in the lottery, I'd hope BC is as aggressive as possible in trying to move up to land Irving.

Derrick Williams isnt talked about much anymore but can he really play the 3? Any nba comparisons? ive heard a more athletic corliss williamson. I wonder how bc's draft board is looking. For some reason i have a feeling if he cant get Kyrie Irving he will either go after Perry Jones or Harrison Barnes.

To me, he's a 4, through and through. I think asking him to play the 3 would minimize his strengths and draw attention to his weaknesses.

He's a good prospect but if we were going to draft a 4 I'd prefer Jared Sullinger.

True, but having him play the three for us might not be a bad idea.We need our SF to be able to rebound,defend and shoot the three. If he can do those things and be a force on the inside too then maybe it could work. His handles i hear are decent. He seems to have very good athletism. My biggest question would be, can he defend the 3?

[dagger]

There is a difference between wishing a player turns out like you think to seeing enough evidence that he can become what you want him to be. Offensively, Barnes has been a one-trick pony this year, and not a particularly good one. You look for evidence that he could be elite, but a player who shoots 40% from the field and doesn't drive the basket is surely not worthy of a top 3 pick. The onus is on Barnes to show during the ACC playoffs and NCAA tournament that he's more than a spot up shooter. The same can be said about Jones. Does he have multiple elite skills, or is he the next Stromile Swift, both in skillset and character.

With a top 5 pick, even in a weak draft, you at least want to make an evidence-based selection rather than a emotional selection. Down around 10-15th pick, you can gamble more on faith or hope, but that isn't going to cut it with a top 5 pick. Between what they show when they play and how they do in workouts, you want to see multiple tools, and a motor that suggests they will apply themselves to improving both strengths and weaknesses.

That's why I can't exclude Kemba Walker at around 5th or 6th pick, because he has a shot, speed, leadership, good lateral quicks to defend, a low turnover rate, has improved from year to year (big improvement this season) and he has big stones. I don't yet see Barnes or Jones displaying multiple skills yet, although I am quite willing to change my mind after the next month.

Good post I agree with.

I'll go even further - with Barnes, what does he do that Sonny Weems does not? Or Gerald Green who was talked up as a top 10 pick out of high school?

Shooting? well he has a bit more range, but his percentage is worse. Does he run the court as well as Sonny, does he drive the basket more than Sonny (who hardly drives at all)? I'm not excluding Barnes. I'm actually hoping - really hard - he gives us more in the next month because I'd love to draft him, and if not him, I'd love it if he contributed to making this a better draft. But the onus is on him to show more, starting today against Miami in the first round of the ACC tournament.

I felt the same about DeMar at USC until the Pac-10 tournament when he showed he could both shoot and drive and carry his team. I'm ready to be persuaded by Barnes in the same way, but if he doesn't, you can't make him a top 5 pick in a lame draft. Freshman wing players who have been drafted top 5 in the past invariably average 20 points or more, destroy opponent all season long. Think Carmelo Anthony, or Kevin Durant. Barnes is not in that league, not even close, so I can't justify a faith-based use of a top 5 pick which we have sweated all season to earn on a guy who doesn't at least project to be a little better version of Danny Granger.

And Jones? I can't see it. I just can't. I have qualms about every pick in this draft except maybe Irving, assuming his injury hasn't diminished him permanently which I doubt. But at least you have guys out there who are certain to make us better at SF, or even PF (freeing up current roster players for trades).

[Reignman]

There is a difference between wishing a player turns out like you think to seeing enough evidence that he can become what you want him to be. Offensively, Barnes has been a one-trick pony this year, and not a particularly good one. You look for evidence that he could be elite, but a player who shoots 40% from the field and doesn't drive the basket is surely not worthy of a top 3 pick. The onus is on Barnes to show during the ACC playoffs and NCAA tournament that he's more than a spot up shooter. The same can be said about Jones. Does he have multiple elite skills, or is he the next Stromile Swift, both in skillset and character.

With a top 5 pick, even in a weak draft, you at least want to make an evidence-based selection rather than a emotional selection. Down around 10-15th pick, you can gamble more on faith or hope, but that isn't going to cut it with a top 5 pick. Between what they show when they play and how they do in workouts, you want to see multiple tools, and a motor that suggests they will apply themselves to improving both strengths and weaknesses.

That's why I can't exclude Kemba Walker at around 5th or 6th pick, because he has a shot, speed, leadership, good lateral quicks to defend, a low turnover rate, has improved from year to year (big improvement this season) and he has big stones. I don't yet see Barnes or Jones displaying multiple skills yet, although I am quite willing to change my mind after the next month.

Unfortunately it's not the 80's/90's anymore where you get a chance to make a solid evaluation of players in college. Most of the quality prospects these days are one and dones so a lot of draft evaluation is based on projecting.

If you judge guys by their freshman performances then you'll miss out on a lot of talent. Blake Griffin wasn't the next coming in his freshmen year. Hell, after watching Demar in college I don't think anyone thought he'd be putting up 17 ppg in his sophmore year.

In a draft like this you really have to evaluate based on projections. There's no way in hell I'm taking Kemba Walker in the top 5 because he is playing well in college. Barnes and Jones may not have come out like gangbusters and they definitely aren't in the LBJ category of prospects but you have to give them serious consideration.

It's exactly the same for Jonas V, he's a project like the other guys and hasn't exactly been great in the Euroleague but based on his skillset and the way he's playing most are projecting him to be a decent C.

[dagger]

Me too. Assuming we don't begin tanking more aggressively and don't luck out in the lottery, I'd hope BC is as aggressive as possible in trying to move up to land Irving.

I don't see any prospect of that unless we're ready to sacrifice Ed Davis. There are two teams that will have two top 10 picks - Cleveland and Utah. They can package up at least easier than we can unless we put Davis in the mix. That's a lot to give up when you consider the 2012 draft is richer in point guards.

[Rhettmatic]

7) Jerryd Sullinger

Reasons: This low down is unlikely but if we were still here I'd have to think long and hard about it. I really don't get a good feeling about this guy at all and I've watched him play a lot and looked for positives. I get serious Michael Sweetney/Shaun May impressions in that I think he's a college star that won't dominate at the next level and I much prefer Amir/Ed to him right now. I'd mostly grab him to look to make a trade involving him or any of our other bigs.

I get those comparisons but Jared Sullinger has managed to lose a fair bit of weight already and by all accounts seems to be a really good kid (check out good features on him here and here).

He's been extremely productive as a freshman (far moreso than Sean May or Michael Sweetney were). I'm not sure he'll be able to translate his college game to the NBA either, but I think you're selling him a little short in favour of some other pretty flawed prospects.

[Rhettmatic]

Me too. Assuming we don't begin tanking more aggressively and don't luck out in the lottery, I'd hope BC is as aggressive as possible in trying to move up to land Irving.

I don't see any prospect of that unless we're ready to sacrifice Ed Davis. There are two teams that will have two top 10 picks - Cleveland and Utah. They can package up at least easier than we can unless we put Davis in the mix. That's a lot to give up when you consider the 2012 draft is richer in point guards.

It's tough to say until we know where we stand and what the rest of the draft order looks like. But the TPE does allow us to take on a bad contract, which combined with one of our lesser young assets (or a vet like Barbosa, depending on the team we're dealing with here) might entice a team that doesn't need a point guard or isn't enamoured of Irving to move down a couple slots.

Not likely, maybe, but depending on how the lottery shakes down I wouldn't say it's out of the realm of possibility at all.

[wanker]

There is a difference between wishing a player turns out like you think to seeing enough evidence that he can become what you want him to be. Offensively, Barnes has been a one-trick pony this year, and not a particularly good one. You look for evidence that he could be elite, but a player who shoots 40% from the field and doesn't drive the basket is surely not worthy of a top 3 pick. The onus is on Barnes to show during the ACC playoffs and NCAA tournament that he's more than a spot up shooter. The same can be said about Jones. Does he have multiple elite skills, or is he the next Stromile Swift, both in skillset and character.

With a top 5 pick, even in a weak draft, you at least want to make an evidence-based selection rather than a emotional selection. Down around 10-15th pick, you can gamble more on faith or hope, but that isn't going to cut it with a top 5 pick. Between what they show when they play and how they do in workouts, you want to see multiple tools, and a motor that suggests they will apply themselves to improving both strengths and weaknesses.

That's why I can't exclude Kemba Walker at around 5th or 6th pick, because he has a shot, speed, leadership, good lateral quicks to defend, a low turnover rate, has improved from year to year (big improvement this season) and he has big stones. I don't yet see Barnes or Jones displaying multiple skills yet, although I am quite willing to change my mind after the next month.

Yeah, the difference pertains to an ability to evaluate talent and project a players success at the NBA-level. Most children over the age of five (at least those who aren't mentally deficient) can look at "evidence" (college or Euroleague productivity) and draft accordingly. Unfortunately such evidence does not equate to NBA success. That said, I am by no means discounting the legitimacy of skepticism towards certain prospects who are failing to produce in college, but I am prioritizing an evaluation of talent that is not wholly dependent on statistical evidence, particularly when considering freshman. Take the last draft as an example, the prototypical "evidence-based" picks such as Turner, Udoh, Hayward, etc., (lower-tier prospects who were productive in college) appear to have a much lower rate of success when transitioning to the NBA. On the other hand, players such as Ed Davis or Demar Derozan, high-ranked HS recruits who were ultimately underwhelming in college, often fall in the draft but become solid NBA players. Obviously this is not a science, but a successful GM (and team scouts) needs to be able to evaluate talent and not simply numbers. On that note, even considering Walker over Barnes is truly baffling. Good luck to any GM who shares your evaluation here.

[dagger]

Hell, after watching Demar in college I don't think anyone thought he'd be putting up 17 ppg in his sophmore year.

I certainly predicted stardom for him and got laughed at by some of this board. One poster even put my prediction in his signature. That's long gone now. I think an astute talent evaluator has seen these guys since they were high school juniors and has watched the best of them intensely in college. All draft is projecting, to suggest otherwise is foolhardly. I'm just saying, if you have guys out there that don't do certain things in college, what makes you think they will suddenly start doing them in much tougher competition. Just because they have hops? Or you hope they will do them? That's not good enough in evaluating top 5 talents. Yes, if somebody is doing well in college, but more importantly doing multiple things well, especially as a freshman or soph, there is a good chance he will attempt to do all of those things at the next level. If they have a motor, if they have balls, if they carry a team, there is a good chance they will project that on to the next level. If they shy away from that in college, there is a great chance they won't do the things you want at the next level.

[/quote]

[SDM]

Irving, D-Will, Walker. My top three.

[Double Helix]

There is a difference between wishing a player turns out like you think to seeing enough evidence that he can become what you want him to be. Offensively, Barnes has been a one-trick pony this year, and not a particularly good one. You look for evidence that he could be elite, but a player who shoots 40% from the field and doesn't drive the basket is surely not worthy of a top 3 pick. The onus is on Barnes to show during the ACC playoffs and NCAA tournament that he's more than a spot up shooter. The same can be said about Jones. Does he have multiple elite skills, or is he the next Stromile Swift, both in skillset and character.

With a top 5 pick, even in a weak draft, you at least want to make an evidence-based selection rather than a emotional selection. Down around 10-15th pick, you can gamble more on faith or hope, but that isn't going to cut it with a top 5 pick. Between what they show when they play and how they do in workouts, you want to see multiple tools, and a motor that suggests they will apply themselves to improving both strengths and weaknesses.

That's why I can't exclude Kemba Walker at around 5th or 6th pick, because he has a shot, speed, leadership, good lateral quicks to defend, a low turnover rate, has improved from year to year (big improvement this season) and he has big stones. I don't yet see Barnes or Jones displaying multiple skills yet, although I am quite willing to change my mind after the next month.

Good post I agree with.

I'll go even further - with Barnes, what does he do that Sonny Weems does not? Or Gerald Green who was talked up as a top 10 pick out of high school?

Shooting? well he has a bit more range, but his percentage is worse. Does he run the court as well as Sonny, does he drive the basket more than Sonny (who hardly drives at all)? I'm not excluding Barnes. I'm actually hoping - really hard - he gives us more in the next month because I'd love to draft him, and if not him, I'd love it if he contributed to making this a better draft. But the onus is on him to show more, starting today against Miami in the first round of the ACC tournament.

I felt the same about DeMar at USC until the Pac-10 tournament when he showed he could both shoot and drive and carry his team. I'm ready to be persuaded by Barnes in the same way, but if he doesn't, you can't make him a top 5 pick in a lame draft. Freshman wing players who have been drafted top 5 in the past invariably average 20 points or more, destroy opponent all season long. Think Carmelo Anthony, or Kevin Durant. Barnes is not in that league, not even close, so I can't justify a faith-based use of a top 5 pick which we have sweated all season to earn on a guy who doesn't at least project to be a little better version of Danny Granger.

And Jones? I can't see it. I just can't. I have qualms about every pick in this draft except maybe Irving, assuming his injury hasn't diminished him permanently which I doubt. But at least you have guys out there who are certain to make us better at SF, or even PF (freeing up current roster players for trades).

Very compelling argument and if I'm honest with myself... I've thought some of the same things but I trust the high school scouting process of all the sites more often than not and I've looked back on enough other college SG/SFs NCAA stats to see that not everybody gets it right away. It's definitely a leap of faith move similar to the way Russell Westbrook went 4th despite having a non-existent freshmen campaign and just a so-so sophomore campaign. Some players look better in the pros than they do in college and I think a lot of people are hoping that Jones/Barnes are two of those types.

Derozan is already starting to catch up to some of the guys in his draft class that came out of the gates stronger and I think he will surpass most by the end of next season and look like the type of talent that should have went top 6. The hardest part in draft analysis is trying to project the future without the resume of NCAA success but GMs have done it before and they'll have to do it again in this draft.

[Rhettmatic]

Marc Spears says Perry Jones' stock won't be hurt by the scandal:

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_ylt=A ... zzer031111

Baylor freshman forward Perry Jones is expected to enter the NBA draft after he was declared ineligible by the NCAA on Wednesday following an investigation into whether Jones and his family received improper benefits from an AAU coach before he enrolled in college.

Several NBA executives don’t think the investigation will have a big impact on where Jones goes in the draft. The 6-foot-11, 225-pound forward is projected to be taken among the top five picks.

Jones averaged 13.9 points and 7.2 rebounds while starting 30 games for Baylor, which lost in the first round of the Big 12 tournament after the NCAA revealed its findings.

“He’s a young player being talked about in the top five because of his upside and what he will become – not because he was going to be MVP of the Big 12 tournament,” one Eastern Conference executive said.

One Western Conference general manager preached patience with Jones.

“He’s someone you have to wait on so that other aspects of his game catch up with his physical talents,” the GM said.

Baylor officials said Jones had no knowledge of three, 15-day loans his mother received from AAU coach Lawrence Johns that were provided while Jones was in high school. The New York Times reported that Johns said he made three payments to Jones’ mother totaling no more than $1,000 to help her cover her mortgage two years ago, and the money was repaid. Johns also reportedly paid for Jones’ travel to an NFL preseason game in San Diego before he attended Baylor.

“Those folks made decisions knowing it could affect [Jones’] future and did it anyway,” the Eastern Conference executive said. “It will be curious to see how quickly he will jettison those who bring him down.”

[Reignman]

Hell, after watching Demar in college I don't think anyone thought he'd be putting up 17 ppg in his sophmore year.

I certainly predicted stardom for him and got laughed at by some of this board. One poster even put my prediction in his signature. That's long gone now. I think an astute talent evaluator has seen these guys since they were high school juniors and has watched the best of them intensely in college. All draft is projecting, to suggest otherwise is foolhardly. I'm just saying, if you have guys out there that don't do certain things in college, what makes you think they will suddenly start doing them in much tougher competition. Just because they have hops? Or you hope they will do them? That's not good enough in evaluating top 5 talents. Yes, if somebody is doing well in college, but more importantly doing multiple things well, especially as a freshman or soph, there is a good chance he will attempt to do all of those things at the next level. If they have a motor, if they have balls, if they carry a team, there is a good chance they will project that on to the next level. If they shy away from that in college, there is a great chance they won't do the things you want at the next level.

[/quote]

Not at all, my top 2 picks are Irving and Barnes and neither is a freak athlete. Irving we're mostly sure about but with Barnes I look at many things like the form on his J, how he defends when he's having a bad offensive game, what his attitude is like while he's getting hammered by every media outlet and then his abilities under pressure.

I look at Barnes and I see a guy that shot well all though HS, went from being primarily a post player to taking his game out to the 3pt line and then struggling with his shot for the first 15 games or so of his freshmen year. Now I see a guy that's slowly hitting his shot at a better % as the season goes on. Also, all though his struggles he still played great defense and rebounded pretty well. He played a team oriented game and deferred to the more tenured guys. Even through all of this he still managed to hit 4 game winners this season and that's no joke.

IMO, he's a late bloomer just like Demar but I think he comes with a more polished game. I just get a really good vibe from this guys, good size, good head on his shoulders, great work ethic and has a closer's mentality.

He's definitely not a sure bet to become a superstar but outside of Irving, who is? Worst case scenario we get a Deng/Battier hybrid and although we need a star, a guy like that could fit in very nicely on this team.