Official John Wall Appreciation Thread 2.0

[sfam]

If indeed Wall has the IQ, and he clearly has retained the athleticism, then all Wall should be doing this summer is shoot 3's. Run a few laps to maintain the cardio, but just shoot 3's for hours on end. Pull ups, catch-and-shoots, off screens, fadeaways... just shoot. Screw the midrange jumper. 3's and layups. That's the model that Arenas developed and Harden is now perfecting.

It's a tough call.

In theory, you want a player that exclusively shoots 3's and layups. James Harden is the perfect role model. Indeed, the Houston offense in general is a good role model. But I'm not sure if it's quite so simple. The first question is, is it more likely that Wall will become a 50% shooter from midrange, or a 33% from 3-point range?

The second question is, who are his big men? If Wall has an athletic finisher as a big man, somebody like Chandler or McGee, then he's better off running pick-and-rolls rather than pick-and-pops. And pick-and-rolls work a little better when you can run them from farther out and create space. In that scenario, Wall would be better off developing the 3. But if Wall has floor-bound big men who prefer to catch-and-shoot, then he's better off running the pick-and-pops closer to the basket so the big man can pop out to hit the 17 footer. In that scenario, Wall is better off honing his midrange game.

We currently have the latter set up. Nene and Okafor aren't alley-oop threats, so they're better off with the pick-and-pop. Wall should therefore work on his midrange shot.

Of course, if Wall develops a 3-point shot with a pretty quick release off the dribble, then we won't need a pick setter at all. He'd be able to take guys one-on-one like Arenas did and Harden does. I think he's quite a ways away from being effective at this though.

Good analysis. In addition to a solid midrange, Wall should develop a teardrop. As he's driving the midrange gives him a nice 10-15 foot option. He should have a 5 foot option of the opposition collapses at the basket. Parker makes bank on his teardrop.

[Knighthonor]

I wonder what other position on the floor the Wizards need a star player at to really bring the best of John Wall out.

[Dark Faze]

Someone that can hit the free throw long jumper at the PF or C position consistently would push John to the 10 APG mark.

[GhostsOfGil]

A 45%+ jump shooter from the high post would be ideal. IMO Kevin Love is the perfect compliment to pair with Wall.

[Nivek]

To the issue of Wall's shot selection. He needs to continue working on his shot from every range because he'll need to take threes, mid-range jumpers and pull-ups because of his role in the offense. Ideally, his spot-up shots should be from 3pt range. I'd like to see him take fewer mid-range/long-2s and do more to get into the lane instead. I don't want him shooting tear-drops or runners, which generally come in that 3-9 foot range, which is also the least efficient place to shoot the ball. Basically, in that tear-drop range, you're getting nothing but shots contested by bigs.

Wall needs the 3pt shot at least at 30-32%. That's good enough that defenses have to pay attention to him out there. After that, he needs to shoot from mid-range competently (38-40%) to make defenses pay if they play under on pnr. He needs a solid pull-up jumper for some variety when he's going to the basket -- if the defense collapses, I'd rather he pull up for a 12-footer than shoot a 7-foot teardrop.

If he puts in the work on his shot this summer, I think he'll be there.

By the way, I'm not saying he should avoid working on a teardrop. I just don't think it's a priority. It should be a bailout shot, at most. Even then, I'd rather he just shoot that FT-line extended jumper rather than driving into traffic and taking a contested shot.

[Dark Faze]

Agreed that the 3 ball should be a point of emphasis. When John made his turn offensively he'd still take a step in front of the 3pt line to shoot a long two (thinking it was a more makeable shots), but statistically it's a negative trade off, and it hurts how he's defended.

[Zonkerbl]

Yeah, if he's going to develop his outside jumper, he might as well develop the three. It's more valuable for him to make 33% of his threes than 45% of his long twos.

[Knighthonor]

[YouTube]www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&v=Yk4rGK6d0OY&feature=fvwp[/YouTube]

[deneem4]

Wall needs to work on floaters and threes....his iq is only bested by cp3 and rondo....his driving is only bested by westbrook and rose...and each of those pgs have signature moves....rondo fakes...cp3 crossovers...westbrook, westbrookness....and drose runnning floater lob whatevrr shot...

[Dark Faze]

Walls Signature move is the around the back layup/eurostep/all kinds of layups.

Wall is fine...As long as he's confident he's going to show up. It's all confidence with him. I just want him to work on basketball skills instead of playing summer league games.

[GhostsOfGil]

To the issue of Wall's shot selection. He needs to continue working on his shot from every range because he'll need to take threes, mid-range jumpers and pull-ups because of his role in the offense. Ideally, his spot-up shots should be from 3pt range. I'd like to see him take fewer mid-range/long-2s and do more to get into the lane instead. I don't want him shooting tear-drops or runners, which generally come in that 3-9 foot range, which is also the least efficient place to shoot the ball. Basically, in that tear-drop range, you're getting nothing but shots contested by bigs.

Interesting point Kev. On the flip side, John Wall shot .429% from 3-10 feet this year which was his most efficient zone outside the restricted area. I followed that throughout the year because I was expecting that shooting % to fall off. In his first two seasons he shot .261 and .287% from 3-10 feet respectively.

He took 105 attempts from 3-10 feet this year so if his improvement was a product of working on that floater, it was time well invested.

[Nivek]

I hear ya, GoG. That .429 is still a bad percentage, though. Shooting .286 on 105 attempts from 3pt range would generate the same number of points. Some of those attempts are necessary, but 3 per 48 minutes? I'm dubious. I'd still rather Wall find a way to convert those 3-9 foot shots into at-rim or 3pt attempts. Better yet would be to convert some of those 3-9 foot attempts into 3pt attempts from Beal or Webster.

[nate33]

I hear ya, GoG. That .429 is still a bad percentage, though. Shooting .286 on 105 attempts from 3pt range would generate the same number of points. Some of those attempts are necessary, but 3 per 48 minutes? I'm dubious. I'd still rather Wall find a way to convert those 3-9 foot shots into at-rim or 3pt attempts. Better yet would be to convert some of those 3-9 foot attempts into 3pt attempts from Beal or Webster.

It might not be as bad as it sounds though. Presumably he is getting fouled on some of those attempts (or rather, when he gets fouled, those attempts not are showing up in the stats). I figure his TS% from 3-9 feet is significantly higher than his eFG%, whereas his TS% from 3-point range is going to be about the same as his eFG%.

Even Tony Parker, the master of the floater, shoots just .466 from 3-9 feet. Statistically, that makes his floater a bad shot too, but in reality, I don't think that's the case because of how often he gets fouled.

[tontoz]

Two good posts above.

I don't think 3 attempts from 3-9 feet per 48 minutes is an excessive number. He has shown that he is more than willing to kick out to shooters. Injuries gave him fewer shooters to pass to at times.

I do think he shoots too many long 2s off the dribble. I would definitely prefer that he shoot more 3s. I get especially annoyed when he passes up an open 3, takes one dribble and then shoots a long 2.

[DCZards]

Even Tony Parker, the master of the floater, shoots just .466 from 3-9 feet. Statistically, that makes his floater a bad shot too, but in reality, I don't think that's the case because of how often he gets fouled.

Parker has indeed mastered "the floater." Watching Parker use the floater as a way to score over big men in the paint is the main reason I'd love to see Wall master that shot as well.

[montestewart]

Two good posts above.

I don't think 3 attempts from 3-9 feet per 48 minutes is an excessive number. He has shown that he is more than willing to kick out to shooters. Injuries gave him fewer shooters to pass to at times.

I do think he shoots too many long 2s off the dribble. I would definitely prefer that he shoot more 3s. I get especially annoyed when he passes up an open 3, takes one dribble and then shoots a long 2.

And another good post to go with them. Shooting .429 on its face might be bad, but mitigated as nate33 observed, and so improved over previous seasons that it may get better still. What I thought I was seeing in the 2nd half of the season was improvement at that range, improvement at drawing fouls there, and more frequent and accurate passing from that zone to perimeter shooters. Maybe an illusion, since I don't have stats to back that up.

Pure speculation, but Wall's infrequent shooting of 3s might change if he continues to make them at better than his horrible rate of 2011-12, as he was doing in March. Having confidence that he could convert 30% or more of his 3s might cut down a little on the long 2s. Having healthy, high percentage shooters on the floor might also cut down on unnecessary 3s and long 2s.

[Nivek]

As I've indicated, I'm in favor of Wall (and everyone) working to improve their shooting proficiency from every range. That said, mastery of the teardrop or not, it's a shot that comes in the range with a poor conversion rate. There's an ancillary benefit to the extent that a player draws fouls in that area, but the teardrop (for example) is (as DCZards points out) an attempt to score OVER big men -- usually to get the shot launched before the big man can get in position to block it.

Either way, it's a relatively low percentage shot, and teams (and individual players) are likely to be more efficient overall if they can replace shots in those areas with shots in more high-yield areas (like at-rim and 3pt range). My guess is that the fouls drawn in that area of the floor aren't sufficient to offset the much better yield from 3pt range, or to offset the higher conversion rate AND the drawn fouls from at-rim attempts.

Basically, I'd like to see Wall limit the number of on-the-run jumper attempts contested by bigs, and instead try to focus his shot selection to at-rim attempts, feet-set jumpers, and spot-up 3s.

[GhostsOfGil]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kXSzK2ekhHo[/youtube]

Walls new Adidas ad.

[20MexicanosIn1Van]

Cool commercial.

[stevemcqueen1]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wH223ZlVbEg[/youtube]

Check out who is in Tenacious D's sequel to Teen Wolf, Adult Wolf.