Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 21-22 Vol. 1

[Wiltside]

I don't think Dipo is that close to returning. He isn't even practicing yet is he?

I think we just need to view anything that he provides as a bonus. If he's truly healthy? he'll be huge. If he's not? We're no different to where we are right now, so it's whatever.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Strus and Martin are better players than Duncan, idc if he breaks out of his slump trade him and attach some picks for the best possible upgrade to the roster and let’s get this championship

Duncan is in trouble for sure and things get even worse for him when Oladipo comes into the fold.

Send Duncan to Sioux falls and don’t bring him back till he averages 45% 3 pt shooting over 5
games.

Duncan Robinson can be traded on Jan 15th and i think he will. Robinson attached with KZ gives us 17.3 million in tradeable contracts. Since the Heat need to stay below the tax with the next two seasons in mind they will look for a contract in return that has a a few million less coming in. Think 15 million dollar player for the 17.3. This then allows us to convert Martin and possibly have enough for a buyout player with last roster spot.

Good to see Duncan's found his groove recently. Imagine trading players each time they have a bad stretch of gm's. I think many shooters have been through numerous slumps in their careers.

He spaces the floor & is a focal pt for defenses. Duncan will play a significant part of any championship run w/ the Heat.

I’m not trading him because of a slump, im trading him because Strus can replace his output and he’s the only real tradeable salary we have to trade if there’s a chance to improve.

[3ballbomber]

Duncan is in trouble for sure and things get even worse for him when Oladipo comes into the fold.

Duncan Robinson can be traded on Jan 15th and i think he will. Robinson attached with KZ gives us 17.3 million in tradeable contracts. Since the Heat need to stay below the tax with the next two seasons in mind they will look for a contract in return that has a a few million less coming in. Think 15 million dollar player for the 17.3. This then allows us to convert Martin and possibly have enough for a buyout player with last roster spot.

Good to see Duncan's found his groove recently. Imagine trading players each time they have a bad stretch of gm's. I think many shooters have been through numerous slumps in their careers.

He spaces the floor & is a focal pt for defenses. Duncan will play a significant part of any championship run w/ the Heat.

I’m not trading him because of a slump, im trading him because Strus can replace his output and he’s the only real tradeable salary we have to trade if there’s a chance to improve.

So a top 5 shooter in the league had a rough patch & a D-leager is surprising by surpassing expectations...so we simply trade the top 5 shooter because the bench guy is now deemed to have the ability to fill his shoes!?

[RexBoyWonder]

Good to see Duncan's found his groove recently. Imagine trading players each time they have a bad stretch of gm's. I think many shooters have been through numerous slumps in their careers.

He spaces the floor & is a focal pt for defenses. Duncan will play a significant part of any championship run w/ the Heat.

I’m not trading him because of a slump, im trading him because Strus can replace his output and he’s the only real tradeable salary we have to trade if there’s a chance to improve.

So a top 5 shooter in the league had a rough patch & a D-leager is surprising by surpassing expectations...so we simply trade the top 5 shooter because the bench guy is now deemed to have the ability to fill his shoes!?

I get your point that we shouldn't rush into hasty trades but that so called "top 5 shooter" was a G-leaguer himself just 2 years ago.

And the "g-leaguer" is showing he does have some advantages in the non-shooting skills. Not to mention the salary gap.

[eddieheatfan]

Tyler Herro crossing the line, so Heat coaches set boundaries; guard has stepped up, stepped out

https://www.yahoo.com/news/tyler-herro-crossing-line-heat-103000253.html

[twix2500]

I don't think Dipo is that close to returning. He isn't even practicing yet is he?

I think we just need to view anything that he provides as a bonus. If he's truly healthy? he'll be huge. If he's not? We're no different to where we are right now, so it's whatever.

I doubt he is close to ready. Just another step and to show that he is progressing. Likely only doing drills, sitting in meetings, and going over plays, not practicing.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Good to see Duncan's found his groove recently. Imagine trading players each time they have a bad stretch of gm's. I think many shooters have been through numerous slumps in their careers.

He spaces the floor & is a focal pt for defenses. Duncan will play a significant part of any championship run w/ the Heat.

I’m not trading him because of a slump, im trading him because Strus can replace his output and he’s the only real tradeable salary we have to trade if there’s a chance to improve.

So a top 5 shooter in the league had a rough patch & a D-leager is surprising by surpassing expectations...so we simply trade the top 5 shooter because the bench guy is now deemed to have the ability to fill his shoes!?

They both came from the same place lol. They’re both great shooters, Strus is far better outside of shooting too. Duncan is played off the court in the 4th.

So if Indy or the Kings came to you and said “hey we want to give you Turner/Barnes for a couple picks and Robinson” you’re saying no because of Duncan?

[RexBoyWonder]

We really need Brooklyn to start losing some games, we'll end up swapping our first rounders with them on draft night (dipo trade) and those **** are outperforming the hell out of their expected wins metrics.

Im fine with selecting 3-5 spots lower, but it better not be a bigger gap then that.

[twix2500]

Read on Twitter

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Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

[AirP.]

Read on Twitter

[harlem_ball]

No covid infection protocols yet. There was definite contact with some Bulls. Be on the lookout!!!

[QUIZ]

Herro has struggled after coming back from that “illness” which kept him out for 2 games.

22/6/4 on 46% from the field and 40% from three in the 18 games before.

17/4/4 on 40% from the field and 32% from three since. Super weird.

[AirP.]

Herro has struggled after coming back from that “illness” which kept him out for 2 games.

22/6/4 on 46% from the field and 40% from three in the 18 games before.

17/4/4 on 40% from the field and 32% from three since. Super weird.

Those first numbers are deceiving for Herro, although he is shooting the well from 3pt range he is dramatically taking more 2s which has dropped his efficiency, his current TS% is at the lowest in his career at .539, he's currently at 10th in TS% for the Heat, luckily Robinson has been bad most of the year and is below him(so is Morris, UD, KZ, Garrett). It's been odd watching Herro (who is a solid to good 3pt shooter) have the option for an open 3 and move to the midrange to take a 2. His percentage of 3s of his shots was 47% as a rookie, 43% last year and this year is down to 38%.

Here's some advanced numbers.

Code: Select all

Season  Age MP   2PA  2P%  3PA 3P%  eFG%
------  --- --   ---  ---  --- ---  ----
2019-20 20  27.4 6.1  .462 5.4 .389 .520
2020-21 21  30.3 7.4  .498 5.5 .360 .516
2021-22 22  32.9 11.0 .476 6.8 .382 .513
Career      29.6 7.5  .480 5.7 .376 .517

These are his per 100 possession numbers.

Code: Select all

Season  Age PTS  TRB AST TOV ORtg DRtg ORtg-DRtg
------  --- ---  --- --- --- ---- ---- ---------
2019-20 20  24.1 7.3 3.9 2.8 103  112         -9
2020-21 21  24.8 8.1 5.6 3.1 104  113         -9
2021-22 22  30.9 8.0 5.6 4.7 101  110         -9
Career      25.8 7.8 4.9 3.3 103  112         -9

Looking at his splits for starter and reserve(usually better defenders with the starters).
Starter .497 TS%
Reserve .559 TS%

Wins and losses( of course more efficient scoring, better chance at winning).
Wins .570 TS%
Loss .480 TS%

As of now he seems to be fine as a scoring 6th man but when this team gets healthy, Butler, Bam and Oladipo, things may start to get messy. I personally believe Miami is going to be overly cautious with Oladipo to get as much time as they can to see what Herro can do with a green light for future reference, for example, paying Oladipo this summer and paying Herro next summer.

[QUIZ]

Herro has struggled after coming back from that “illness” which kept him out for 2 games.

22/6/4 on 46% from the field and 40% from three in the 18 games before.

17/4/4 on 40% from the field and 32% from three since. Super weird.

Those first numbers are deceiving for Herro, although he is shooting the well from 3pt range he is dramatically taking more 2s which has dropped his efficiency, his current TS% is at the lowest in his career at .539, he's currently at 10th in TS% for the Heat, luckily Robinson has been bad most of the year and is below him(so is Morris, UD, KZ, Garrett). It's been odd watching Herro (who is a solid to good 3pt shooter) have the option for an open 3 and move to the midrange to take a 2. His percentage of 3s of his shots was 47% as a rookie, 43% last year and this year is down to 38%.

Here's some advanced numbers.

Code: Select all

Season  Age MP   2PA  2P%  3PA 3P%  eFG%
------  --- --   ---  ---  --- ---  ----
2019-20 20  27.4 6.1  .462 5.4 .389 .520
2020-21 21  30.3 7.4  .498 5.5 .360 .516
2021-22 22  32.9 11.0 .476 6.8 .382 .513
Career      29.6 7.5  .480 5.7 .376 .517

These are his per 100 possession numbers.

Code: Select all

Season  Age PTS  TRB AST TOV ORtg DRtg ORtg-DRtg
------  --- ---  --- --- --- ---- ---- ---------
2019-20 20  24.1 7.3 3.9 2.8 103  112         -9
2020-21 21  24.8 8.1 5.6 3.1 104  113         -9
2021-22 22  30.9 8.0 5.6 4.7 101  110         -9
Career      25.8 7.8 4.9 3.3 103  112         -9

Looking at his splits for starter and reserve...
Starter .497 TS%
Reserve .559 TS%

Wins .570 TS%
Loss .480 TS%

His TS% over that first stretch was 56.2% though which would be the highest of his career. It has been at 47.4% after the illness so the original point still stands.

With that said I do agree that Herro has been taking a ton of midrange jump shots and floaters which aren’t efficient shots despite the fact that he had been hitting them.

Read on Twitter

Shots like this for example are horrible despite the fact that it went in. He’s been taking quite a few of these long 2’s lately which he should really cut out.

[AirP.]

Spoiler:

Herro has struggled after coming back from that “illness” which kept him out for 2 games.

22/6/4 on 46% from the field and 40% from three in the 18 games before.

17/4/4 on 40% from the field and 32% from three since. Super weird.

Those first numbers are deceiving for Herro, although he is shooting the well from 3pt range he is dramatically taking more 2s which has dropped his efficiency, his current TS% is at the lowest in his career at .539, he's currently at 10th in TS% for the Heat, luckily Robinson has been bad most of the year and is below him(so is Morris, UD, KZ, Garrett). It's been odd watching Herro (who is a solid to good 3pt shooter) have the option for an open 3 and move to the midrange to take a 2. His percentage of 3s of his shots was 47% as a rookie, 43% last year and this year is down to 38%.

Here's some advanced numbers.

Code: Select all

Season  Age MP   2PA  2P%  3PA 3P%  eFG%
------  --- --   ---  ---  --- ---  ----
2019-20 20  27.4 6.1  .462 5.4 .389 .520
2020-21 21  30.3 7.4  .498 5.5 .360 .516
2021-22 22  32.9 11.0 .476 6.8 .382 .513
Career      29.6 7.5  .480 5.7 .376 .517

These are his per 100 possession numbers.

Code: Select all

Season  Age PTS  TRB AST TOV ORtg DRtg ORtg-DRtg
------  --- ---  --- --- --- ---- ---- ---------
2019-20 20  24.1 7.3 3.9 2.8 103  112         -9
2020-21 21  24.8 8.1 5.6 3.1 104  113         -9
2021-22 22  30.9 8.0 5.6 4.7 101  110         -9
Career      25.8 7.8 4.9 3.3 103  112         -9

Looking at his splits for starter and reserve...
Starter .497 TS%
Reserve .559 TS%

Wins .570 TS%
Loss .480 TS%

His TS% over that first stretch was 56.2% though which would be the highest of his career. It has been at 47.4% after the illness so the original point still stands.

With that said I do agree that Herro has been taking a ton of midrange jump shots and floaters which aren’t efficient shots despite the fact that he had been hitting them.

Read on Twitter

Shots like this for example are horrible despite the fact that it went in. He’s been taking quite a few of these long 2’s lately which he should really cut out.

56.2 isn't much higher then his 55 of his rookie season and who knows if he was just on a hot streak early on, much like he may be on a cold streak now. The overall point I didn't make that I should have is that his TS% is staying roughly the same so far in his first 3 years which should be somewhat concerning for a team that's capped out and will have to deal with an extension for Herro this year or next while also deciding on paying or possibly losing Oladipo for nothing(which I doubt happens).

Yes, he should be taking out a lot of those long 2s, Herro actually has a solid if not good 3pt shot.

Herro makes some incredible shots, but last night I watched him dance around one on one with a teammate wide open then Herro launched an air ball. Cleveland packed the paint yet Herro had to attack while ignoring wide open teammates, although it was KZ it was the oppertunity to get him an open look to possibly get his confidence up. Also, not utilizing the wide open player means the defenses can continue to ignore them and continue packing the lane with little to no repercussions.

[al bondiga]

Some realism...if spo is coaching their team...neither Jimmy Herro or bam are going to be a champions. NOT because spo sucks (I happen to think spo a great coach, maybe in the top 100 ever)...its because he is too slow to adjust and BAM and HERRO are the kind of NOW players... although Jimmy is the best among them he is too old
In conclusion, I can now start To see why Trading away the three of them or firing spo it's a huge possibility...other wise we are going to have a great time almost getting there, this is 1 year from becoming similar to any Portland Trail Blazer team

[twix2500]

The past 13 Games (The 1st game he eclipsed 3 turnovers) Herro is averaging 3.5 ast and 3.9 turnovers. 0.9 assist turnover ratio

Sent from my Google Pixel Slate using Tapatalk

[balla345]

The past 13 Games (The 1st game he eclipsed 3 turnovers) Herro is averaging 3.5 ast and 3.9 turnovers. 0.9 assist turnover ratio

Sent from my Google Pixel Slate using Tapatalk

Once Butler comes back and another backup PG, he needs to just accept his role and shoot the rock. Those 4 turnovers a game is like 10 points for the other team not good at all.

[insfo]

Spoiler:

Those first numbers are deceiving for Herro, although he is shooting the well from 3pt range he is dramatically taking more 2s which has dropped his efficiency, his current TS% is at the lowest in his career at .539, he's currently at 10th in TS% for the Heat, luckily Robinson has been bad most of the year and is below him(so is Morris, UD, KZ, Garrett). It's been odd watching Herro (who is a solid to good 3pt shooter) have the option for an open 3 and move to the midrange to take a 2. His percentage of 3s of his shots was 47% as a rookie, 43% last year and this year is down to 38%.

Here's some advanced numbers.

Code: Select all

Season  Age MP   2PA  2P%  3PA 3P%  eFG%
------  --- --   ---  ---  --- ---  ----
2019-20 20  27.4 6.1  .462 5.4 .389 .520
2020-21 21  30.3 7.4  .498 5.5 .360 .516
2021-22 22  32.9 11.0 .476 6.8 .382 .513
Career      29.6 7.5  .480 5.7 .376 .517

These are his per 100 possession numbers.

Code: Select all

Season  Age PTS  TRB AST TOV ORtg DRtg ORtg-DRtg
------  --- ---  --- --- --- ---- ---- ---------
2019-20 20  24.1 7.3 3.9 2.8 103  112         -9
2020-21 21  24.8 8.1 5.6 3.1 104  113         -9
2021-22 22  30.9 8.0 5.6 4.7 101  110         -9
Career      25.8 7.8 4.9 3.3 103  112         -9

Looking at his splits for starter and reserve...
Starter .497 TS%
Reserve .559 TS%

Wins .570 TS%
Loss .480 TS%

His TS% over that first stretch was 56.2% though which would be the highest of his career. It has been at 47.4% after the illness so the original point still stands.

With that said I do agree that Herro has been taking a ton of midrange jump shots and floaters which aren’t efficient shots despite the fact that he had been hitting them.

Read on Twitter

Shots like this for example are horrible despite the fact that it went in. He’s been taking quite a few of these long 2’s lately which he should really cut out.

56.2 isn't much higher then his 55 of his rookie season and who knows if he was just on a hot streak early on, much like he may be on a cold streak now. The overall point I didn't make that I should have is that his TS% is staying roughly the same so far in his first 3 years which should be somewhat concerning for a team that's capped out and will have to deal with an extension for Herro this year or next while also deciding on paying or possibly losing Oladipo for nothing(which I doubt happens).

Yes, he should be taking out a lot of those long 2s, Herro actually has a solid if not good 3pt shot.

Herro makes some incredible shots, but last night I watched him dance around one on one with a teammate wide open then Herro launched an air ball. Cleveland packed the paint yet Herro had to attack while ignoring wide open teammates, although it was KZ it was the oppertunity to get him an open look to possibly get his confidence up. Also, not utilizing the wide open player means the defenses can continue to ignore them and continue packing the lane with little to no repercussions.

I saw the exact same thing and was like wow, he really did have tunnel vision there. But then I noticed it was KZ and thought maybe I might have done the same thing too. But now with some time to think about it, that was just wrong. That was definitely not the right play, and hopefully Spo shows this same video and calls him out in the next film session.

And on the flip side, Duncan had a few great movement/passing moments. That wrap around pass to (I think) Dedmon was highlight worthy

[AirP.]

I saw the exact same thing and was like wow, he really did have tunnel vision there. But then I noticed it was KZ and thought maybe I might have done the same thing too. But now with some time to think about it, that was just wrong. That was definitely not the right play, and hopefully Spo shows this same video and calls him out in the next film session.

Right, if you're not going pass to a player that is wide open for a 3, you're actively telling the defense they can cheat and create issues for the other 4 players.

And on the flip side, Duncan had a few great movement/passing moments. That wrap around pass to (I think) Dedmon was highlight worthy

Sure, but give me a lesser 3pt shooter who is a 2-way player over Robinson in that starting lineup, say... Oladipo? I expect Oladipo who should still be athletic and be able to benefit a bunch from a PG like Lowry who seems to find athletic players for easy scores.