Trade Talk (Part 14): 2023-24 Edition

[Guest84]

https://dunkingwithwolves.com/posts/minnesota-timberwolves-could-trade-2024-deadline

[minimus]

Minnesota can afford to give up a bit on defense, the current offense is not adequate enough to win an NBA Championship (at least from historical precedent).

Tyus pretty much immediately solves a huge chunk of the team’s turnovers (though KAT and Anthony Edwards would still have to improve) and the spacing would be substantially better (especially carving out a chunk of Kyle Anderson’s minutes for Troy Brown Jr.).

People tend to forget how many MIN issues are related to turnovers. It is not simply a missed shot, live ball turnovers is like missed shot + opponent rebound + opponent offensive possession. BUT, in 99% cases when two of Rudy, Towns and Anderson are on the floor a live ball turnover means favourable for opponent CROSS MATCH in early offense. So a live ball turnover is likely minus 2 points for us, 2-3 points for opponent, which equals 4-5 point swing in a 10 second span.

Kyle averages only one turnover per game, while the narrative seems to suggest it's closer to five.

Well. I give an example: last game McDaniels passed an open three to Anderson who stood in corner. It was a bad decision, however when a bad decision meets a bad spacing it increases probability of turnover. It usually happens this way (based on example above): McDaniels (who should have bigger role in offense) passes the ball to non shooter Anderson in corner, opponent defense packs the paint by using Anderson's defender. Anderson won't take contested shots, he passes to our scorers. If Towns, Edwards decides to drive it with high probability will lead to turnover, offensive foul. These turnovers won't be attributed to Anderson, because it is combination of bad spacing and bad decision making

[BlacJacMac]

People tend to forget how many MIN issues are related to turnovers. It is not simply a missed shot, live ball turnovers is like missed shot + opponent rebound + opponent offensive possession. BUT, in 99% cases when two of Rudy, Towns and Anderson are on the floor a live ball turnover means favourable for opponent CROSS MATCH in early offense. So a live ball turnover is likely minus 2 points for us, 2-3 points for opponent, which equals 4-5 point swing in a 10 second span.

Kyle averages only one turnover per game, while the narrative seems to suggest it's closer to five.

Well. I give an example: last game McDaniels passed an open three to Anderson who stood in corner. It was a bad decision, however when a bad decision meets a bad spacing it increases probability of turnover. It usually happens this way (based on example above): McDaniels (who should have bigger role in offense) passes the ball to non shooter Anderson in corner, opponent defense packs the paint by using Anderson's defender. Anderson won't take contested shots, he passes to our scorers. If Towns, Edwards decides to drive it with high probability will lead to turnover, offensive foul. These turnovers won't be attributed to Anderson, because it is combination of bad spacing and bad decision making

Multiple times a game, Andersen will throw a pass to Rudy that he can't handle. Does Kyle get the TO for that, or does it go to Gobert?

[Klomp]

Kyle averages only one turnover per game, while the narrative seems to suggest it's closer to five.

Well. I give an example: last game McDaniels passed an open three to Anderson who stood in corner. It was a bad decision, however when a bad decision meets a bad spacing it increases probability of turnover. It usually happens this way (based on example above): McDaniels (who should have bigger role in offense) passes the ball to non shooter Anderson in corner, opponent defense packs the paint by using Anderson's defender. Anderson won't take contested shots, he passes to our scorers. If Towns, Edwards decides to drive it with high probability will lead to turnover, offensive foul. These turnovers won't be attributed to Anderson, because it is combination of bad spacing and bad decision making

Multiple times a game, Andersen will throw a pass to Rudy that he can't handle. Does Kyle get the TO for that, or does it go to Gobert?

Both Kyle and Rudy average 1 turnover a game. So you're talking about two negative plays a game.

[Klomp]

THT doesn’t seem like the answer. The way I ask the question is pretend in game 81 Mike Conley is injured in a way that means he is out for the entire playoffs. Whatever player we acquire for Kyle and Shake needs to be the guy who from game 82 through game 7 of the finals can replace enough of Mike to keep us competitive. I see that as Tyus. There are of course other floor generals, but I don’t think THT is that guy. Do you?

What if Ant, KAT and Rudy all get injured in game 81. Do we have replacements that will keep us competitive all the way to game 7 of the NBA finals? Probably not. If Mike gets injured and is out for the playoffs we probably don't win either. Your fixation on Mike getting injured is so over the top.

Notice you needed to use the word and. You want to have this conversation you need to use the word or. What if Rudy or KAT or Ant got hurt. The answer is we use Naz to replace KAT and either Kyle or whoever we replace Kyle with, or Miller if he gets minutes and proves himself. The answer if Rudy gets hurt is KAT moves to the 5 and Kyle plays the 4. Kyle is our only non shooter and can play on ball to mitigate that. If Ant gets hurt we need NAW or Troy to step up. It worked in a limited sample size. What you are missing is that we can probably survive losing one of those 3. It would be tough and inject a ton of uncertainty, but we have backup plans for all of them, and even one for Jaden. The player we don’t have a backup plan for is Mike. Kyle would need to play a lot with Rudy, you have seen how that looks. JMAC could start for us, but do you honestly think he can play big minutes in the playoffs? NAW could start at PG, but tell me how does he compare to Mike? This team has proven it needs a PG, and we don’t have a proper backup. We have SGs and a 3rd string. We need a second string and we need that player to be able to take over for Mike in the next year or two.

What if Chet Holmgren gets hurt?

[winforlose]

What if Ant, KAT and Rudy all get injured in game 81. Do we have replacements that will keep us competitive all the way to game 7 of the NBA finals? Probably not. If Mike gets injured and is out for the playoffs we probably don't win either. Your fixation on Mike getting injured is so over the top.

Notice you needed to use the word and. You want to have this conversation you need to use the word or. What if Rudy or KAT or Ant got hurt. The answer is we use Naz to replace KAT and either Kyle or whoever we replace Kyle with, or Miller if he gets minutes and proves himself. The answer if Rudy gets hurt is KAT moves to the 5 and Kyle plays the 4. Kyle is our only non shooter and can play on ball to mitigate that. If Ant gets hurt we need NAW or Troy to step up. It worked in a limited sample size. What you are missing is that we can probably survive losing one of those 3. It would be tough and inject a ton of uncertainty, but we have backup plans for all of them, and even one for Jaden. The player we don’t have a backup plan for is Mike. Kyle would need to play a lot with Rudy, you have seen how that looks. JMAC could start for us, but do you honestly think he can play big minutes in the playoffs? NAW could start at PG, but tell me how does he compare to Mike? This team has proven it needs a PG, and we don’t have a proper backup. We have SGs and a 3rd string. We need a second string and we need that player to be able to take over for Mike in the next year or two.

What if Chet Holmgren gets hurt?

Then they play small ball. I think our team is very resilient because we are so talented. But, I also think our team lacks play making and is prone to silly turnovers (including live ball turnovers,) when the spacing is bad. We need a PG on the floor, and have only 2 on the team. One of whom is not even in the rotation, though that is changing.

[Domejandro]

People tend to forget how many MIN issues are related to turnovers. It is not simply a missed shot, live ball turnovers is like missed shot + opponent rebound + opponent offensive possession. BUT, in 99% cases when two of Rudy, Towns and Anderson are on the floor a live ball turnover means favourable for opponent CROSS MATCH in early offense. So a live ball turnover is likely minus 2 points for us, 2-3 points for opponent, which equals 4-5 point swing in a 10 second span.

Kyle averages only one turnover per game, while the narrative seems to suggest it's closer to five.

Well. I give an example: last game McDaniels passed an open three to Anderson who stood in corner. It was a bad decision, however when a bad decision meets a bad spacing it increases probability of turnover. It usually happens this way (based on example above): McDaniels (who should have bigger role in offense) passes the ball to non shooter Anderson in corner, opponent defense packs the paint by using Anderson's defender. Anderson won't take contested shots, he passes to our scorers. If Towns, Edwards decides to drive it with high probability will lead to turnover, offensive foul. These turnovers won't be attributed to Anderson, because it is combination of bad spacing and bad decision making

This is an accurate assessment, Kyle Anderson's inability to take open shots leads to possessions that involve over passing (which culminates in turnovers and contested shot attempts. Additionally, not having a table-setter has the tendency to lead to a lot of iso possessions, when Mike Conley is not in the game. It is a pretty serious problem that is fully demonstrated in team offensive efficiency statistics, when he is on the court.

[shangrila]

Kyle averages only one turnover per game, while the narrative seems to suggest it's closer to five.

Well. I give an example: last game McDaniels passed an open three to Anderson who stood in corner. It was a bad decision, however when a bad decision meets a bad spacing it increases probability of turnover. It usually happens this way (based on example above): McDaniels (who should have bigger role in offense) passes the ball to non shooter Anderson in corner, opponent defense packs the paint by using Anderson's defender. Anderson won't take contested shots, he passes to our scorers. If Towns, Edwards decides to drive it with high probability will lead to turnover, offensive foul. These turnovers won't be attributed to Anderson, because it is combination of bad spacing and bad decision making

This is an accurate assessment, Kyle Anderson's inability to take open shots leads to possessions that involve over passing (which culminates in turnovers and contested shot attempts. Additionally, not having a table-setter has the tendency to lead to a lot of iso possessions, when Mike Conley is not in the game. It is a pretty serious problem that is fully demonstrated in team offensive efficiency statistics, when he is on the court.

Then we need to limit or outright ban his minutes with Rudy and involve Anderson in more action closer to the basket.

[shrink]

https://dunkingwithwolves.com/posts/minnesota-timberwolves-could-trade-2024-deadline

So the #1 player MIN could trade is Karl-Anthony Towns? Ick.

[Klomp]

https://dunkingwithwolves.com/posts/minnesota-timberwolves-could-trade-2024-deadline

So the #1 player MIN could trade is Karl-Anthony Towns? Ick.

Yea that's a very click-baity story. I get it, but it's way too reactionary.

When was the last time a team this good (to clarify, a team this high in the standings) made such a big trade during the middle of the season?

Detroit was third when they traded for Rasheed Wallace.
LA Lakers were fourth when they traded for Pau Gasol.

Those are two of the closest examples I can think of. But those aren't even in the same category, as they were consolidating role players to get the better piece. Minnesota would likely be doing the opposite here.

[Klomp]

For the record...

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[Klomp]

2. Are we willing to pay up what he will cost? Jones will be one of the hottest names at the deadline. Purely for salary implications, I'm expecting him to cost us Anderson and Milton. But for talent implications, I don't think that's close to enough. I think we are talking about including at least one or two of Minott, Moore or possibly Miller and the WAS/MEM 2nd on top of Anderson and Milton.

I don't feel like this gets talked about enough. I understand Minnesota fans are attached to Tyus for a number of reasons, but meanwhile someone like Monte Morris could also be available. And instead of attaching multiple assets in order to get Jones, I think Minnesota could probably get extra assets on top of Morris.

[minimus]

Well. I give an example: last game McDaniels passed an open three to Anderson who stood in corner. It was a bad decision, however when a bad decision meets a bad spacing it increases probability of turnover. It usually happens this way (based on example above): McDaniels (who should have bigger role in offense) passes the ball to non shooter Anderson in corner, opponent defense packs the paint by using Anderson's defender. Anderson won't take contested shots, he passes to our scorers. If Towns, Edwards decides to drive it with high probability will lead to turnover, offensive foul. These turnovers won't be attributed to Anderson, because it is combination of bad spacing and bad decision making

This is an accurate assessment, Kyle Anderson's inability to take open shots leads to possessions that involve over passing (which culminates in turnovers and contested shot attempts. Additionally, not having a table-setter has the tendency to lead to a lot of iso possessions, when Mike Conley is not in the game. It is a pretty serious problem that is fully demonstrated in team offensive efficiency statistics, when he is on the court.

Then we need to limit or outright ban his minutes with Rudy and involve Anderson in more action closer to the basket.

One action that I saw that benefits Anderson was a split action: Anderson in the post, Towns received a cross screen on perimeter and got open look for three point shot. Such kind of action can also benefit Anderson when he either screener or passer. I really think that Milton miscast as backup PG ruined start of the season for Anderson, if we played a shooter instead of Milton we could use Anderson as screener passer, instead of his countless drive-and-kick actions.

[Klomp]

I don't know why, but there's something about a Clippers package of Hyland/Plumlee that has always struck me as a realistic trade package for Minnesota, possibly for something like Milton and Moore. Anderson would still be available to trade for a guard or wing.

[KGdaBom]

Notice you needed to use the word and. You want to have this conversation you need to use the word or. What if Rudy or KAT or Ant got hurt. The answer is we use Naz to replace KAT and either Kyle or whoever we replace Kyle with, or Miller if he gets minutes and proves himself. The answer if Rudy gets hurt is KAT moves to the 5 and Kyle plays the 4. Kyle is our only non shooter and can play on ball to mitigate that. If Ant gets hurt we need NAW or Troy to step up. It worked in a limited sample size. What you are missing is that we can probably survive losing one of those 3. It would be tough and inject a ton of uncertainty, but we have backup plans for all of them, and even one for Jaden. The player we don’t have a backup plan for is Mike. Kyle would need to play a lot with Rudy, you have seen how that looks. JMAC could start for us, but do you honestly think he can play big minutes in the playoffs? NAW could start at PG, but tell me how does he compare to Mike? This team has proven it needs a PG, and we don’t have a proper backup. We have SGs and a 3rd string. We need a second string and we need that player to be able to take over for Mike in the next year or two.

I was exaggerating because I think your fixation is so out of hand. If we lose Ant, Rudy or KAT for the playoffs we won't win. We probably won't win even if we lose none of them. Just the way it is. Hard to win the NBA title. It takes not only health, but luck and a hot streak.

I disagree on all counts. Pick a team and assume they are at full strength and we aren’t, then maybe we lose. But they may be banged up or worse as well. Even if they aren’t, this team has a lot of firepower and depth but for one glaring weak spot. Not only that, but we have no heir apparent at PG and a financial straight jacket next year. You telling me that my “fixation” is out of hand doesn’t change the facts. It also doesn’t change the fact that this team is much worse across the board without a PG on the floor. Finch is starting to realize that which is why he is going to play JMAC more. You really should pay more attention to how different we are when Mike is off the floor.

You disagree on all counts. You don't think it takes, Health or luck or a hot streak to win the NBA title. Somebody is going to win it all with none of those 3 in their favor. WOW.
You think we will win the NBA with KAT or ANT or Rudy missing the entire playoffs. WOW.
You disagree on all counts.

[winforlose]

I was exaggerating because I think your fixation is so out of hand. If we lose Ant, Rudy or KAT for the playoffs we won't win. We probably won't win even if we lose none of them. Just the way it is. Hard to win the NBA title. It takes not only health, but luck and a hot streak.

I disagree on all counts. Pick a team and assume they are at full strength and we aren’t, then maybe we lose. But they may be banged up or worse as well. Even if they aren’t, this team has a lot of firepower and depth but for one glaring weak spot. Not only that, but we have no heir apparent at PG and a financial straight jacket next year. You telling me that my “fixation” is out of hand doesn’t change the facts. It also doesn’t change the fact that this team is much worse across the board without a PG on the floor. Finch is starting to realize that which is why he is going to play JMAC more. You really should pay more attention to how different we are when Mike is off the floor.

You disagree on all counts. You don't think it takes, Health or luck or a hot streak to win the NBA title. Somebody is going to win it all with none of those 3 in their favor. WOW.
You think we will win the NBA with KAT or ANT or Rudy missing the entire playoffs. WOW.
You disagree on all counts.

Let me be more specific, I disagree with your statements that my take is out of hand, that when healthy we probably don’t win anything, that we cannot afford to lose one member of starting lineup and still compete (the exception being Mike assuming we don’t get a proper backup and try to play without a PG in the playoffs.) Lastly I disagree we need a hot streak to compete. Our baseline is fine so long as we don’t slump.

You are correct that luck plays a factor. That is the one count I don’t disagree with. Opposing team health, our teams health, officiating, there are plenty of variables. I just think you missing the important ones.

[KGdaBom]

I disagree on all counts. Pick a team and assume they are at full strength and we aren’t, then maybe we lose. But they may be banged up or worse as well. Even if they aren’t, this team has a lot of firepower and depth but for one glaring weak spot. Not only that, but we have no heir apparent at PG and a financial straight jacket next year. You telling me that my “fixation” is out of hand doesn’t change the facts. It also doesn’t change the fact that this team is much worse across the board without a PG on the floor. Finch is starting to realize that which is why he is going to play JMAC more. You really should pay more attention to how different we are when Mike is off the floor.

You disagree on all counts. You don't think it takes, Health or luck or a hot streak to win the NBA title. Somebody is going to win it all with none of those 3 in their favor. WOW.
You think we will win the NBA with KAT or ANT or Rudy missing the entire playoffs. WOW.
You disagree on all counts.

Let me be more specific, I disagree with your statements that my take is out of hand, that when healthy we probably don’t win anything, that we cannot afford to lose one member of starting lineup and still compete (the exception being Mike assuming we don’t get a proper backup and try to play without a PG in the playoffs.) Lastly I disagree we need a hot streak to compete. Our baseline is fine so long as we don’t slump.

You are correct that luck plays a factor. That is the one count I don’t disagree with. Opposing team health, our teams health, officiating, there are plenty of variables. I just think you missing the important ones.

We will not win the NBA title if we don't have Health, Luck, and a hot streak. All three. We will not win the NBA title if KAT, Ant or Rudy miss the entire playoffs. Any one of those three or Conley. Mark my words and see if they prove incorrect when the playoffs come around.

[winforlose]

You disagree on all counts. You don't think it takes, Health or luck or a hot streak to win the NBA title. Somebody is going to win it all with none of those 3 in their favor. WOW.
You think we will win the NBA with KAT or ANT or Rudy missing the entire playoffs. WOW.
You disagree on all counts.

Let me be more specific, I disagree with your statements that my take is out of hand, that when healthy we probably don’t win anything, that we cannot afford to lose one member of starting lineup and still compete (the exception being Mike assuming we don’t get a proper backup and try to play without a PG in the playoffs.) Lastly I disagree we need a hot streak to compete. Our baseline is fine so long as we don’t slump.

You are correct that luck plays a factor. That is the one count I don’t disagree with. Opposing team health, our teams health, officiating, there are plenty of variables. I just think you missing the important ones.

We will not win the NBA title if we don't have Health, Luck, and a hot streak. All three. We will not win the NBA title if KAT, Ant or Rudy miss the entire playoffs. Any one of those three or Conley. Mark my words and see if they prove incorrect when the playoffs come around.

The first test is the rotation in January. I predict more and more JMAC. Then I predict a move at the trade deadline, plus a dump of WMJ so we can sign a buyout player and avoid the tax. Maybe even use the TPE to sign a two year deal if we like who is available and they want to be here. The next test is how well the young guys perform in their opportunities when players are banged up or sick. Sooner or later we will have a rest game or two and that might open some doors. All of this takes into account how the move and buy out players perform. You make it sound like a straight line, it is anything but.

P.S. if we can go 7-4 against playoff teams playing like **** then we are much better at baseline than you realize, and our ceiling is clearly top 2-3 in the NBA. That is why it is so gross and disgusting to watch us go out there and dig a new floor.

[Slim Tubby]

KAT and McDaniels for AD? Very unrealistic but how is it value wise?

[Klomp]

Another Towns to NY piece came out today, this one by Matt Moore of Hardwood Paroxysm. But this one wasn't a complete NY puff piece at least. Still, I feel like this is becoming more and more inevitable. Woj had a couple of TV hits yesterday where he was talking about the Knicks and you could tell he was talking about Towns without actually saying his name.

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