The ROTY/Rookie Discussion Thread, Part III

[michaelm]

Sorry, but this has to be Mitchell at this point.

Simmons isn't even a rookie.

Strange he is eligible for the award then.

[clyde21]

Sorry, but this has to be Mitchell at this point.

Simmons isn't even a rookie.

Strange he is eligible for the award then.

Doesn't mean he should garner my vote.

[Stoked]

And the Jazz still have Mitchell so I’m good.

Two much arguing and not enough pure enjoyment watching these men ball out.

[bebopdeluxe]

Sorry, but this has to be Mitchell at this point.

Simmons isn't even a rookie.

very original take sir. Rules are rules and Blake Griffin won ROY so Simmons shouldn't be penalized. Get over it.

Not my own rules. Mitchell is more impressive to me as he's a true rookie. Not a redshirt. He gets my vote.

Umm...you mean a red-shirt with two years at Louisville. OK - got it.

[clyde21]

very original take sir. Rules are rules and Blake Griffin won ROY so Simmons shouldn't be penalized. Get over it.

Not my own rules. Mitchell is more impressive to me as he's a true rookie. Not a redshirt. He gets my vote.

Umm...you mean a red-shirt with two years at Louisville. OK - got it.

I had no idea Louisville played in the NBA. When did this happen"?

[michaelm]

I agree. Like the fact that most people have this as a close race. Do you care to refute that by showing that most people do not?

I have no idea if it is a close race. The poll attached to this thread is not what I would call "scientific".

What I DO know is by the overwhelming majority of statistical analysis - both the top-10 "counting" stats listed above, as well as key advanced stats like WS, VORP and BPM, Simmons is SMOKING Mitchell. Fact.

Do I honestly care if Mitchell wins it? Nope...just like I didn't care that Brogdon beat Saric last year. Saric is smoking Brogdon in year 2 and THAT is what matters.

A simple question for you - an NBA GM poll of the other 28 GM's (no Jazz and Sixers) are asked simply which player they want - Simmons or Mitchell?

Who wins that poll?

I think Simmons wins in a landslide.

So...let Mitchell have the ROY. I don't care. We have SImmons.

Hmm, interesting question. I’ll say Simmons wins that vote but it’s not a landslide.

But that’s not scientific either.

But either way both players are phenomenal and we are witnessing the ascension of two superstars.

I think that is the bottom line, and as a non—American fan don’t really get all the fuss about the award anyway. Both players are head and shoulders above several recent recipients in any case as others have said.

At the moment Mitchell looks to me the player more likely to win a game for his team on his own, Simmons does more things particularly defensively.

For me it comes down to how their teams perform for the rest of the year. If Utah continue in their current vein with Mitchell influential it will be hard to go past him. I don’t really agree with arguments that downgrade Simmons because he has Embiid next to him given Gobert is hardly a scrub center, however.

[PhilBlackson]

This thread isn't even rookie discussion anymore, it's just Simmons vs Mitchell with each base saying the other doesn't deserve it.

Please someone like Tatum, Smith Jr, Fox etc explode to make this thread more interesting again. I wish we could see more of Isaac.

[sixerhp3]

So there's really no problem. People that don't care want Mitchell to get the award and people that do care also want Mitchell to get it.

People like to hype up the underdog. Simmons' smug attitude and the national exposure of the sixers have probably biased many fans opinions towards Mitchell. Stats don't lie man (and Ben is ahead in almost every statistical category) and any GM who would take Mitchell over Simmons should be fired. Not trying to say that Mitchell isn't amazing, but Simmons is one of the most unique prospects in NBA history. Is there any objectivity in this award anymore?

[bebopdeluxe]

The thing that's building Mitchell's lore here is that he's carrying a huge load for the Jazz, more than any other rookie. Last night against the Spurs, Rubio was out and Mitchell had to play the 1. The Spurs were game planning against Mitchell all night (since the Jazz had beat the Spurs in their last meeting). Mitchell scored 8 of the Jazz's 9 points in the final 3 minutes and the Jazz pulled out an improbable win after being down double digits in the 4th quarter. He made several big plays under pressure and changed the outcome of the game. He has to do more than any other rookie in order for the Jazz to be successful, and he's doing it.

If Simmons were on the Jazz and had to do what Donovan does every night, could he do it?

Watch on YouTube

Stop with this "Mitchell is carring the load" crap. PLEASE.

This is another example where what people FEEL is not supported by STATISICS and FACTS. Just as Simmons is absolutely SMOKING Mitchell in key advanced stats like WS, VORP and BPM, the stats also show that it is SIMMONS who is carrying his team - not Mitchell (this is from another thread on the GB - thanks to Biff).

- Simmons leads his team in WS...while Mitchell is FOURTH.
- Simmons on/off the floor is +4.7...while Mitchell is roughly flat (+0.4)

Don't you HATE it when FACTS get in the way of a great narrative?

[Moonbeam]

Ugh. I hate to see this thread descending into Kobe vs LeBron territory...

Both Mitchell and Simmons are amazing, and either would be a worthy recipient. Tatum, Markkanen, and Kuzma have also been great, and several other rookies have been impressive as well.

Why can't we use this thread to celebrate these bright stars of the future?

Oh, and saying something akin to "I don't care if (other rookie) wins, we've still got (poster's favorite team's rookie)" in the midst of the bickering signals that such a poster does indeed care quite a bit about this award and the perception others have of who deserves it.

[theo42]

The thing that's building Mitchell's lore here is that he's carrying a huge load for the Jazz, more than any other rookie. Last night against the Spurs, Rubio was out and Mitchell had to play the 1. The Spurs were game planning against Mitchell all night (since the Jazz had beat the Spurs in their last meeting). Mitchell scored 8 of the Jazz's 9 points in the final 3 minutes and the Jazz pulled out an improbable win after being down double digits in the 4th quarter. He made several big plays under pressure and changed the outcome of the game. He has to do more than any other rookie in order for the Jazz to be successful, and he's doing it.

If Simmons were on the Jazz and had to do what Donovan does every night, could he do it?

Watch on YouTube

Which is not true when Ben has been running the sixers and doing more in every way since game 1.

But carry on..

[CoreyGallagher]

Mitchell scored 8 of the Jazz's 9 points in the final 3 minutes and the Jazz pulled out an improbable win after being down double digits in the 4th quarter. He made several big plays under pressure and changed the outcome of the game. He has to do more than any other rookie in order for the Jazz to be successful, and he's doing it.

If Simmons were on the Jazz and had to do what Donovan does every night, could he do it?

Erm, I don't like taking part in these sorts of back and forth, but last night specifically is a weird game to get into. I tend to be under the impression that if a team is able to stay in it with a player that uses so many possessions to shoot inefficiently for 45 minutes, and especially on a team with so many playing so well recently, then that player wouldn't have to pull through in the final 3 minutes if he had just used less before then. Again, using last nights game specifically, since you did to demonstrate his clutch-ness. He's obviously a much more efficient shooter than that, typically.

Speaking of, here are the clutch stats for the season. Simmons isn't too bad either.

Do I think Simmons could do what Donovan does on the Jazz? Tough question, the roster construction would be completely different, doubt they acquire Rubio with Simmons on the roster and they likely wouldn't have traded Hood, especially with his shooting this season. With Gobert, Simmons has shown that with a two layer defense of himself and an elite rim protector it is likely going to be elite. He has also shown the ability to get his shooters many open looks (I've cited our own in the past) and I think his play making with two of the best three point shooters in the league, in Ingles and Hood, would make for an efficient enough offense. I think hypothetically he'd fit alright there, particularly with the core that was there before, then perhaps with some (other) roster maneuvering along the way.

I also think Mitchell would fit well on the 76ers. So, yeah. It's ultimately whatever.

[Mik317]

honestly would prefer if Simmons didn't win ROTY...

the all star snubs have seem to light a fire under him, I can only imagine what losing the ROTY would do....

[deflated]

Do I think Simmons could do what Donovan does on the Jazz? Tough question, the roster construction would be completely different, doubt they acquire Rubio with Simmons on the roster and they likely wouldn't have traded Hood, especially with his shooting this season. With Gobert, Simmons has shown that with a two layer defense of himself and an elite rim protector it is likely going to be elite. He has also shown the ability to get his shooters many open looks (I've cited our own in the past) and I think his play making with two of the best three point shooters in the league, in Ingles and Hood, would make for an efficient enough offense. I think hypothetically he'd fit alright there, particularly with the core that was there before, then perhaps with some (other) roster maneuvering along the way.

I also think Mitchell would fit well on the 76ers. So, yeah. It's ultimately whatever.

It's a good question but I like the Jazz with Simmons a lot more than Sixers with Mitchell; that hypothetical Jazz team coached by Snyder would be insanely fun.

Go with your suggestion of the Jazz keeping Hood and Simmons replacing Rubio; if the Sixers realized what they had in Mitchell then it's Redick out and Teague (or similar) in. Mitchell will always get his points but I'm a sucker for defence and Simmons turns that Jazz team from a very good defensive team into a nightmare, crazy turnover rates and then Simmons leading them out in transition. Snyder would do great things with such an unusual set of skills in a single player.

[mtron929]

The crux of the argument is this. A lot of the posters here think the race is a toss-up and they take it really personally when people like me say that Ben Simmons is the overwhelming favorite. But if you look at the CURRENT betting odds for the rookie of the year, this is the most popular bet.

Simmons: 2 to 5
Mitchell: 16 to 5

For those of you who know anything about betting, this indicates that Simmons is the overwhelming favorite to win the rookie of the year according to the bettors. This is much more objective than any of the aggregated opinions that you will find on this board. Yet, people are denying the obvious and that is source of the argument here.

[mtron929]

The crux of the argument is this. A lot of the posters here think the race is a toss-up and they take it really personally when people like me say that Ben Simmons is the overwhelming favorite. But if you look at the CURRENT betting odds for the rookie of the year, this is the most popular bet.

Simmons: 2 to 5
Mitchell: 16 to 5

For those of you who know anything about betting, this indicates that Simmons is the overwhelming favorite to win the rookie of the year according to the bettors. This is much more objective than any of the aggregated opinions that you will find on this board. Yet, people are denying the obvious and that is source of the argument here.

EDIT: I mean, you can say that you like Mitchell more. You can say you think he will have a better career. These are all fine subjective opinions. But what is not true is that this current race is a toss-up.

[Scatocephalus]

I am a huge Mitchell fan but will admit that Simmons deserves the ROTY. That said, when I watch Simmons I am less than excited about watching him. When I watch Mitchell I am waiting for that explosive dunk or incredible play that just screams at you. Mitchell is a much more exciting player to watch. Just anticipating when that highlight play comes is half the fun.

Watch on YouTube

[Blightor]

Simmons is the better player, Donovan is the better story (and a great player).

As a Simmons and Sixers fan, I honestly do not want Simmons to entertain this race.

We are trying to head into the playoffs and do damage. Right now he is doing EXACTLY what we need him to do. He is on a young team, so sharing the ball is a priority so that everyone else can get into rhythm, being super efficient helps reduce the effect of the other guys who aren't that efficient, and making us able to take a few hits on poor shooting night from the rest of the young crew.

His 4th quarter efficiency is especially good, and I believe he was even leading the league at some point.

Running the offense, picking apart the defense as a PG, finding the man who needs to get into the game, or finding the hot hand, are all things I want him to keep doing. Making plays on defense time and time again, making the extra effort. These are all things he might let up on if he goes full attack mode. And also - resting him in the 4th is also another great thing, its not about triple doubles, he will get them like nothing, so sacrificing stats to keep him as strong and fit as possible in the back half of this year is just the best thing to do.

No, if ROTY means that Simmons stops doing any of that, then I don't want it. He's rookie of the year to any sixers fan, and probably plenty of other people - I don't want him going for glory and becoming a ball hogging, high volume sprayer that pretty much all rookies are. I want playoff glory.

[LakersSoul]

Mitchell Vs Simmons:

19.5/16.4 Points
44/52.7 FG%
35.3/0% 3P%
3.5/7.7 Rebs
3.4/7.3 Assists

Does the 3 more points per game and the much better 3 point shooting percentage push Mitchell beyond Simmons on the ROY? I think the momentum was swung towards Mitchell getting the award over Simmons right now.

[CoreyGallagher]

Could weigh their scoring efficiencies (particularly how his three point shooting affects it overall) by just citing their true shooting percentages.

Simmons 54.2 TS%. Mitchell 54.5 TS%