NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2022-23 (pt 2)

[Yuri36]

Mavs record is 21-7 when Luka has 30+ and 2-11 when he doesn't (including 0-4 when he doesn't play). Just crazy dependant on one guy doing it all.

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And that's the definition of a MVP, especially when this dependency results more often than not in wins.
The guy definitely deserves an individual accolade for all the things he's showed for the last 3 years and how he's lighted up this league, even more so during the POs.

their record being 21-7 when he scores 30+ and 2-7 when he doesn't is kinda meaningless
it's more apparent on the Mavs because they don't have anyone to fill his shoes but you can do the same for other high scoring players as well.

The Celtics for instance who are 28-12, are only 3-3 when Tatum scores 24 points or less

The Bucks are 4-8 when Giannis scores 30 or less and they are 21-12 when Giannis plays this season

obviously if the opponent manages to force your star into a bad scoring game, those points have to come from somewhere

Doncic is a strong candidate this season, "deserves a personal accolade for what he's done in the past years" is 100% not a thing
also - that's what 1st team all-NBA is for

Jokic does not have more help than Doncic!

those rosters are pretty comparable. if Murray gets back to his old self and so does MPJ and they both stay healthy, then the Nuggets supporting case would be arguably a bit better
but thus far this season there is very little seperating these rosters

Jokic's team falls apart just they way Dallas does without Doncic (perhaps even more)

Doncic is 23-14 this season, Jokic is 25-11

if that gaps continues to exist, both in win % and total wins (and it's likely that would be the case) then Luka would have to be considarbly better than Jokic (or someone else if that some1 reaches these levels) in order to win it. let's say, if the Nuggets are 1st \ 2nd and the Mavs are 4th etc.

so far they've been pretty close individually imo, had Jokic ahead for a while then Luka passed him by a hair
i'd say if Jokic takes care of the streaking Lakers tonight - he'd be back firmly at the top

I think Luka would love to have guys like Jamal Murray, Gordon or Michael Porter Jnr near him!

[CobraCommander]

Embiid missed his 11th game. It's safe to say he's out of the discussion. That cuts the pool down to 5 candidates. As long as he keeps missing 10+ games a season, he'll never be a real MVP contender.

Don’t all the guys now a days miss 10+ games a year? The accursed “rest game” when you just happen to buy tickets?

[scrabbarista]

I'll never be on board with the "the team is bad when he misses games" line of reasoning. Any argument that relies on a player NOT playing in a game should be invalid. When a great player plays, he's valuable; when he misses games, he provides almost no value (just moral support, if that). If playing every game takes a potential point away from your case, then that shouldn't be a potential point. All else being equal among great players, more games equals more valuable.

[bradybunch]

Mavs 0-4 without Luka.

I suppose Luka is the MVP in the truest sense.

May not win it because of Jokic, but without Luka, Mavs are the worst team out of all teams without their MVP.

[antonac]

I'll never be on board with the "the team is bad when he misses games" line of reasoning. Any argument that relies on a player NOT playing in a game should be invalid. When a great player plays, he's valuable; when he misses games, he provides almost no value (just moral support, if that). If playing every game takes a potential point away from your case, then that shouldn't be a potential point. All else being equal among great players, more games equals more valuable.

I agree in most scenarios, for example when Embiid kept missing games, he may help you win, say 75% of games, but if he's missing almost a third of a season then you only have a player that helps you win around 50%. I think the NBA focus on per game totals obscures the difference in contribution a fully healthy player makes compared against a periodically injured one.

however, in Doncic's defense I would note that the Mavs with a slightly tired Doncic are only slightly more likely to win than Mavs without Doncic, whereas Doncic going hell for leather seems to give them a fighting chance against anyone. In the Mavs case, it probably makes sense to give him a rest and just write off 10-15 games of the season because having Doncic fully fit has been such an X-factor.

[mcmurphy]

I’ll reiterate:

Jordan, Shaq, Duncan, Kobe
Lebron, KD, Steph, Giannis

This is tier 1. They are winners. They elevate their teammates at the right time and get them to the promised land. Jokic close to KD since KD was a bus rider and not driver though….but still far away from that crew.

Winning matters. Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. The other thing we don’t know is how Joker would hold up over an extended playoffs. And multiple years of it. He never gets far enough.

Probably Luka the MVP this year. These regular season stat stuffers can continue to make the mvp less and less meaningful.

I'm sure that a team Curry-Klay-Draymond-Jokic-2017-18-19 (also considering Jokic's age and health) would not have won less than 2 out of 3 rings...

The ridiculous thing about that list is KD and no Bird and Magic and you talking about winners? it's a joke?

[LessEyeTest]

And that's the definition of a MVP, especially when this dependency results more often than not in wins.
The guy definitely deserves an individual accolade for all the things he's showed for the last 3 years and how he's lighted up this league, even more so during the POs.

their record being 21-7 when he scores 30+ and 2-7 when he doesn't is kinda meaningless
it's more apparent on the Mavs because they don't have anyone to fill his shoes but you can do the same for other high scoring players as well.

The Celtics for instance who are 28-12, are only 3-3 when Tatum scores 24 points or less

The Bucks are 4-8 when Giannis scores 30 or less and they are 21-12 when Giannis plays this season

obviously if the opponent manages to force your star into a bad scoring game, those points have to come from somewhere

Doncic is a strong candidate this season, "deserves a personal accolade for what he's done in the past years" is 100% not a thing
also - that's what 1st team all-NBA is for

Jokic does not have more help than Doncic!

those rosters are pretty comparable. if Murray gets back to his old self and so does MPJ and they both stay healthy, then the Nuggets supporting case would be arguably a bit better
but thus far this season there is very little seperating these rosters

Jokic's team falls apart just they way Dallas does without Doncic (perhaps even more)

Doncic is 23-14 this season, Jokic is 25-11

if that gaps continues to exist, both in win % and total wins (and it's likely that would be the case) then Luka would have to be considarbly better than Jokic (or someone else if that some1 reaches these levels) in order to win it. let's say, if the Nuggets are 1st \ 2nd and the Mavs are 4th etc.

so far they've been pretty close individually imo, had Jokic ahead for a while then Luka passed him by a hair
i'd say if Jokic takes care of the streaking Lakers tonight - he'd be back firmly at the top

I think Luka would love to have guys like Jamal Murray, Gordon or Michael Porter Jnr near him!

Did you look at Jokic's team last season? You should. Half those guys are either not playing or back overseas. I wouldn't be surprised if that season takes years off Jokic's career for the carry job where he brought a G-league contender to the 6th seed in the NBA.

#YourMVP #MyMVP

[Infinite Llamas]

People talk about Jokic’s teammates now but these guys fall off a cliff when Jokic isn’t in the game. For example, Gordon is a good player, but nobody in the universe was talking about him as a fringe all star until he started to play with Jokic. Can’t say he would have the same chemistry with Luka. Jokic and Luka play completely different game styles.

[scrabbarista]

I'll never be on board with the "the team is bad when he misses games" line of reasoning. Any argument that relies on a player NOT playing in a game should be invalid. When a great player plays, he's valuable; when he misses games, he provides almost no value (just moral support, if that). If playing every game takes a potential point away from your case, then that shouldn't be a potential point. All else being equal among great players, more games equals more valuable.

I agree in most scenarios, for example when Embiid kept missing games, he may help you win, say 75% of games, but if he's missing almost a third of a season then you only have a player that helps you win around 50%. I think the NBA focus on per game totals obscures the difference in contribution a fully healthy player makes compared against a periodically injured one.

however, in Doncic's defense I would note that the Mavs with a slightly tired Doncic are only slightly more likely to win than Mavs without Doncic, whereas Doncic going hell for leather seems to give them a fighting chance against anyone. In the Mavs case, it probably makes sense to give him a rest and just write off 10-15 games of the season because having Doncic fully fit has been such an X-factor.

I agree totally. I didn't mean players should never rest. It's fine to be strategic about it, balancing health and the playoffs versus the game in front of you. But the game in front of you is a part of this regular season, and the MVP is a this-regular-season award. At least, it should be. The team and the player can decide for themselves what to prioritize, but, whatever they decide, something is potentially going to be lost. Maybe it's seeding, or regular season awards, or health, or energy late in the playoffs. There's a give and take there, which is, I think, a good thing.

What we should do as (hypothetical) voters is to separate the playoffs and the regular season in our minds as much as possible. This is the best way to ensure that both are valued.

The idea that playoff performance should be counted for/against players in MVP voting is another brick in the despicable trend of devaluing the regular season. The postseason will always, no matter what, be more highly valued than the regular season. As such, there's only upside in elevating the value of the regular season, and one way to do that is by rewarding guys who play.

[scrabbarista]

Bbref now has:

Jokic 57.0%
Doncic 21.4%
Durant 5.3%
Antetokounmpo 4.7%
Tatum 4.1%

Plus, Doncic and (moreso) Durant are possibly hitting injury issues now. If things continue as trending, this might be the third year in a row where Jokic is the only defensible choice.

Huge "if," obviously. I would never bet much on "the next four months will be just like the last four." Because that never happens. I mean, that's one reason why we tend to be overawed by consistent, sustained excellence. It's the rarest thing.

[Kurtz]

KD with an MCL sprain, likely out for about a month, which I think takes him out of MVP contention.

[Exp0sed]

[/b]

I think Luka would love to have guys like Jamal Murray, Gordon or Michael Porter Jnr near him!

Murray was great in the Bubble but he's been out for a year and a half
he is not a 100% and isn't even close

his offense has come around a bit in the past month (still only slightly better than average and only 18 PPg on 45%, nothing to write home about) and he is a big negative defensively atm

maybe he'll get there by the playoffs but saying Luka would love to have Murray is disingenius - Dinwiddie has been just as productive as this version of Murray and even this version of Murray whose decent-ish on offense - is benefiting from the 2 man game with Jokic - he's worse when Jokic sits

nobody wanted AG
just because Jokic is feeding him inside doesn't make him some great player
he is also btw, sub-par on defense (at least in his current position)

MPJ has only played 700 mins thus far this season and about 2/3rds of the games
also after being out for a full season and also far from his 100%

Luka would find ways to make AG better as well (feeding him inside when he establishes deep position, finding him for pin-point lobs etc.) but for most NBA teams he would just be a low end starter as he's a very limited player whose prone to silly To's, bad decisions and is not a good shooter by any means
having Jokic "make the decisions" for him - has really payed off this season

Wood has been much better and has played more than any of those 3 guys this season

Jokic isn't just the entirety of the Nuggets offense as evident 3 seasons in a row whereas the Nuggets offense turns from one of the best in the league with him on the court to one of the worst without him - that's not a hyperbole btw - that's really what's hapenning

he is also crucial to the Nuggets defense, which also craters when he sits
certain metrics besides onn\off capture it very well - he has a DBPM of +3.9 (that's an elite mark)
second best on this Nuggets team is the corpse of D jordan with 0.4!

Murray and MPJ have a minus -1.6 and -1.8 respectively
other metrics plus the eye test and well...Denver's actual defensive rating etc - show that pretty clearly too

The Mavs have been hit by injuries for their complimentary players, Kleber, DFS, Green etc
yeah, they're really thin rn and they are forced to play some terrible players, no doubt about that
but that's temporary

when we're looking at the whole season, out of 41 games Dinwiddie has played in 40, Wood 39, THJ 39, Bullock 39,
Luka 37, Powell 36, DFS 31 etc.

their main rotation have been available moreso than the average team

it's true that guys like DFS and Bullock have been pretty ass when they did play (just like Murray) and that def hurts them
but i'll reiterate: those rosters are pretty comparable, especially if you account for defense

The Nuggets by comparison have played a total of 39 games:
KCP 38, Brown 38, Jokic 36, AG 34, Jamal 32, Bones 31, MPJ 25

so basically 1 through 8 or so, rotation wise the Mavs have been healthier and more available this season
but again - they're very comparable

just because AG is looking like an all-star doesn't make us forget who he is, or who he was even last season in the rs or the playoffs
i'd much rather gave Wood and a healthy Dinwiddie playing 40 games at a 100% is better and has been better than a 50% returning off a long hiatus Murray, or at the very least he's been just as good

those are facts...

Murray: 35.5 mpg, 18 \ 4 \ 5 on 55% TS with piss poor defense
Dinwiddie: 33 mpg, 16 \3 \5 on 60% TS with subpar defense :p

Murray has about 25% usage and Dinwiddie only at about 20%

he plays a bit more mins and takes more shots, has the ball more in his hands because of reputation and also since Jokic hoggs the ball far less than Luka

again, will Murray be back to his old self at some point in the season? who knows
is the best version of Murray a better player than Dinwiddie? sure, but that's not whose playing alongside Jokic this season thus far!

this season thus far - Dinwiddie has played more games and their respective contributions have been a wash basically

guys who are saying but but but Jokic has Murray and MPJ and Luka has no1 are just being disingenious

[Exp0sed]

There is no denying that Jokic is doing a fantastic work and in probably the only player outside of Giannis and Luka who can really hard carry his team.

With 3 important guys being injured for well over a month now, Mavs often play with 3 players who are basically in the Gleague. If i tell you their names, you probably won't even know them At least 1 of them has a potential, so kinda blessing in disguise. But it's tough to win anything like that. Even Frank Ntilikina has become an important part of their rotation because he basically has to be lol.

well over a month is fine, how about for the season?

Denver out of 39 total games, these guys are top 7 in total mins and the number of games they've played:
KCP 38, Brown 38, Jokic 36, AG 34, Murray 32, Bones 31, MPJ 25

Dallas out of 41 games:
Dinwiddie 40, THJ 39, Bullock 39, Wood 38, Luka 37, Powell 36, Dfs 31

if we go deeper, let's say 8-10: J. Green 25, Kleber 22, Frank 22
Btw, bad or not, Ntkilitina was used as a 3rd stringer in the mavs rotation in the WC semis and finals as well, he's been part of this team for a while

Denver's 8-10th: Christian Braun 36, Jeff Green 24 and D. Jordan 28

so you're telling me that because a guy like Kleber is injured the Mavs are forced to (temporarily) play some really bad players?

Is the corpse of Jeff Green better? and he's out for a while too with a broken hand
is rookie Christian Braun a better option?

The Nuggets are playing some bad players too and have had some injuries as well
not to mention their 2nd and 3rd options are returning from very long injuries and aren't quite there yet

3 important guys is kinda of a stretch, this is Kleber wer're talking about here
so yeah they're thin rn and forced to give 5 mins to guys like Mckinley or Pinson

it hurts but that's hardly the main issue

The Nuggets have had "important guys" like Vlatko, Green, NNaji etc all miss considerable time
and when they were thin they were forced to give some mins to guys like Jack White

it's all good

NBA season is long

[Black star]

Jokic fans arguing that all his teammates are terrible and owe all their success and future earnings to him is hilarious.

Every time. You think Doncic is carrying a bad squad, well actually Jokic teammates are just as bad or maybe worse. You think defense gives KD or Giannis an edge, well actually Jokic is just as great at defense check the advanced stats.

He has his team first in the west, he's putting together another MVP caliber season, but that's still not enough. He has to win every argument. He could never have any help or weaknesses to diminish his case.

[GeorgeSears]

With KD's injury sidelining him for a month, it's down to 4. Tough break for him and the Nets.

[AleksandarN]

I disagree a healthy Murray is better than any player that Luka has played with all year. I hope Murray will be at 100 by the playoffs if so I think Denver will win it all if he is.

[LessEyeTest]

Jokic fans arguing that all his teammates are terrible and owe all their success and future earnings to him is hilarious.

Every time. You think Doncic is carrying a bad squad, well actually Jokic teammates are just as bad or maybe worse. You think defense gives KD or Giannis an edge, well actually Jokic is just as great at defense check the advanced stats.

He has his team first in the west, he's putting together another MVP caliber season, but that's still not enough. He has to win every argument. He could never have any help or weaknesses to diminish his case.

Now go read the previous pages to see why Nuggets fans are out in full force.

[Exp0sed]

Jokic fans arguing that all his teammates are terrible and owe all their success and future earnings to him is hilarious.

Every time. You think Doncic is carrying a bad squad, well actually Jokic teammates are just as bad or maybe worse. You think defense gives KD or Giannis an edge, well actually Jokic is just as great at defense check the advanced stats.

He has his team first in the west, he's putting together another MVP caliber season, but that's still not enough. He has to win every argument. He could never have any help or weaknesses to diminish his case.

nah, the argument was that his teammates (especially with how long Murray and MPJ have been out and how far they are from a 100%) - are comparable to Doncic teammates

comparable, maybe one thinks this cast is a bit better maybe another thinks it's the other way around but most can agree that all in all - they're pretty close

you don't need to check "advanced stats"

Jokic haters seem to conflate two issues
Jokic is exploitable in the pnr and drop coverage, especially prone to floaters as he struggles to contest quickly enough
he is also a poor in defending transition and can be blown by with sheer quickness rather easily on the perimeter by quick guards

on the flip side, he's a good post defender, he's one of the best defensive rebounders in the league, both in totals and in DREB%
he leads he league for a couple of years now at Steals and deflections from the Center position

nothing "advanced" about any of those

there is also an indirect side to his defensive impact, as he leads the league in offensive rating
that means alot more Nuggets possesions end up in a made basket when he's playing compared to when he's not
offensive efficiency after a made basket is better (on average, significantly) than offensive efficiency after a miss or a TO

his haters just see a couple of plays of him helpless (btw every center in the league including the "elite" defenders have plenty of those and no1 starts threads about it) and assume he's terrible

well, if he's so terrible defensivley how is it that year after year the Nuggets defense is far worse when he sits on the bench?

like it or not Jokic has a positive impact on his team's defense
those "advanced stats" capture it, that's true
but regular box score stats + the eye test can tell u the exact same story

btw, just because he is challenged athletically doesn't mean he doesn't do other stuff to help his team on that end
his mind and court vision work just fine on both ends of the floor

he calls out the opponent's plays from time to time, he reads the offense and communicates to his teammates and he does it well

all the stuff that guys like Draymond are always heralded for
now Green is a much better defender personally, but the point is you don't have to be a Draymond level defender to direct ur teammates to their defensive spots, read and react

Jokic is doing his thing on the defensive end as well, don't kid urselves Jokic haters

[Bob8]

There is no denying that Jokic is doing a fantastic work and in probably the only player outside of Giannis and Luka who can really hard carry his team.

With 3 important guys being injured for well over a month now, Mavs often play with 3 players who are basically in the Gleague. If i tell you their names, you probably won't even know them At least 1 of them has a potential, so kinda blessing in disguise. But it's tough to win anything like that. Even Frank Ntilikina has become an important part of their rotation because he basically has to be lol.

well over a month is fine, how about for the season?

Denver out of 39 total games, these guys are top 7 in total mins and the number of games they've played:
KCP 38, Brown 38, Jokic 36, AG 34, Murray 32, Bones 31, MPJ 25

Dallas out of 41 games:
Dinwiddie 40, THJ 39, Bullock 39, Wood 38, Luka 37, Powell 36, Dfs 31

if we go deeper, let's say 8-10: J. Green 25, Kleber 22, Frank 22
Btw, bad or not, Ntkilitina was used as a 3rd stringer in the mavs rotation in the WC semis and finals as well, he's been part of this team for a while

Denver's 8-10th: Christian Braun 36, Jeff Green 24 and D. Jordan 28

so you're telling me that because a guy like Kleber is injured the Mavs are forced to (temporarily) play some really bad players?

Is the corpse of Jeff Green better? and he's out for a while too with a broken hand
is rookie Christian Braun a better option?

The Nuggets are playing some bad players too and have had some injuries as well
not to mention their 2nd and 3rd options are returning from very long injuries and aren't quite there yet

3 important guys is kinda of a stretch, this is Kleber wer're talking about here
so yeah they're thin rn and forced to give 5 mins to guys like Mckinley or Pinson

it hurts but that's hardly the main issue

The Nuggets have had "important guys" like Vlatko, Green, NNaji etc all miss considerable time
and when they were thin they were forced to give some mins to guys like Jack White

it's all good

NBA season is long

Long post, but it can be really easy. Mavs without Luka are 0:4, and didn't win almost anything, if Luka didn't score 30+ with good efficiency. Jokic is 25/11, Luka 23/14, pretty close, not something really important to decide MVP.

[Exp0sed]

Long post, but it can be really easy. Mavs without Luka are 0:4, and didn't win almost anything, if Luka didn't score 30+ with good efficiency. Jokic is 25/11, Luka 23/14, pretty close, not something really important to decide MVP.

agree 100%

Both are playing\producing at a similar level (well above the rest), both have missed just a few games, both have casts that are pretty comparable to each other.

edit: and both their teams would be nowhere without them and are nowhere when they're onthe bench

that's just it, they'r carrying comparable rosters to the same level of success (or thereabouts)
and are the top 2 candidates thus far as we approach halfway of the season

still another half to go and alot can happen