Lets talk S&T for a second....

[enetric]

We have had some debates on how these top free agents will get signed if they move to new teams. Can we get two TOP tier maxed guys at 16.8mil each is one question? Right now, we are about 9 mil short of what we need for the second guy. We can move guys out and get there. Or, move less out, and get to 14mil which is the max a David Lee could get.

Some people think...no way most of these guys move to new teams without the S&T option. Sure, their new team will lose assets that can help them win, but then they get an extra year of salary guaranteed at the end with max raises a few extra buck over the rest of the contract. Right now its all speculation, but both sides are reasonable. Now what i am wondering is, of the teams who have cap room...who has truly viable S&T options for the top free agent targets. Is supply and demand an issue here for the S&T route among those teams? I mean, hey there is always a Lakers team who can give up a Bynum and get even better....but what abut the teams who have been creating cap space like us?


I have been playing with some numbers and doing some reading...want to kick the issue around. If you actually know, please chime in.


If I understood something I read from Larry Coon, if a guy gets more than a 20% raise over his 2009 salary he is subject to BYC rules. Most of the top tier guys...Bosh, Wade, Lebron, Amare...not an issue. Not making far off the 16.8mil now.

But, take a guy like David Lee. The thinking has been than the Knicks would try to use Lee as an S&T to get one of their two max targets. It seems to me, If I understand this correctly, that isn't possible in this scenario. First, they only paid Lee 7mil last season. His max opportunity is just under 14mil. To match a maxed Bosh as the example most given for what the Knicks might do, Toronto still needs to take back within 25% of Bosh because they are over the cap... right?

So his outgoing salary for trade matching is still only 7 mil. The minimum within 25% match for Bosh's 16.8 max would be 12.6 mil. So that means they are still 5.6 mil short. Since the Raptors aren't going to take Curry...they would have to add Gallo, Douglas and Chandler to Lee to get the match and have no one left besides Curry and Bosh on their roster at that point.

Anyone know for sure? Am I figuring this accurately???? Seems to me trying to use Lee as a BYC is going to be hard enough. Trying to use him for a more expensive piece is going to be near impossible if I have all this down.

Heat don't have the contracts to get to 12.6 mil in a match either. Cavs have larger, longer contracts teams wont want. Bulls would have to get someone to take Deng's ugly contract, or Hinrich plus Noah...cant see them doing that.

We can get to 12.6 with Devin/Humphries and CDR.

And we can get to about 13.5-14 mil in cap space if we either move Yi without taking back salary toward this years cap, Or, by moving out Humphries and CDR...or the 27th pick instead of CDR.

Move out Yi and Humphries, then yeah space for two maxed guys as straight signings.

I guess what I am saying is, These other teams really don't have the S&T chips to have an advantage over us if the thinking is the only way to get some of these guys is with the extra year of the S&T move anyway. So...should we be sweating any of this?

I know we are under the cap just as the other teams besides the Cavs in this conversation are...so we aren't required to salary match, but if we deal with a team that is over...they have to take back within the 25% up or down right? I am rusty at looking at this stuff, but that is how I remember it.

[vincecarter4pres]

We would likely just send a huge TPE and draft picks in a S&T.
Since we are under the cap far enough to sign these guys outright, we do not have to send out any tangible salary or contracts, so say Bosh is a S&T here, it would just generate a huge TPE, so therefore Toronto would not have to take on any undesirable salary.

As for the David Lee thing, I am not sure. It never occured to me that he might be BYC, I have to read up on it.

[SpeedyG]

It's been awhile since I've done extensive reading on the CBA, so just like you, I might be wrong on this, but I believe that if we do a S&T for a second (meaning we already used most of our cap space for the first), I do believe that the team we're making a deal with must follow salary matching rules. That being said, I have a thought that is floating around my head for awhile now. Risky, and obviously only in play if and only if we get Lebron.

S&T Devin Harris to Atlanta for Joe Johnson.

What Speedyg? are you crazy?

Yeah I know, he's 28 years old. He disappeared in games in this year's playoffs. There's rumors that he wants to have the ball in his hands in an ISO-JOE offense.

But you'd have to believe that, if there's a clearly superior playmaker on the team such as Lebron, that Joe will be more than happy to play second-fiddle. That, and the fact that we might be willing to pay him what Atlanta isn't willing to. But why Joe? Why when maybe we can go after a Bosh or an Amare along with Lebron?

To me, it's all because of fit. As I, and Enetric have said, once you find that true franchise player, then and only then can and should you worry about fit. In this scenario, that franchise player is Lebron. Step 1...complete. So you move on to step 2...

I think most of us believe that Devin probably won't be as good a fit with Lebron, and that's why everyone here was ready to ship him out had we gotten Wall, who is a more natural playmaker than Harris. And to me, looking at who's available out there, Joe Johnson, for what kind of player he is and what kind a player this team needs, would be an excellent #2 for Lebron. For one, he's a very good shooter, but also good enough to create for himself or others off the dribble.

We've seen other teams with three good players. Bucks had a tough scoring trio of Cassell, Allen, and Robinson. We had Kidd, VC, RJ (or Kidd, Martin, RJ). GS had Run TMC. Portland had Pip, Sheed, and J.R. I'm sure there are others that I'm just not remembering off the top of my head. But I guess what I'm trying to get to is that, even though these teams have three very good players (with maybe one that is elite), they were all flawed. Bucks trio was too perimeter and offensive oriented. Kidd, Martin, RJ was too defensive oriented. Kidd, VC, RJ was too perimeter oriented, so was Run TMC. Even Portland was somewhat perimeter oriented, given Sheed's penchant for drifting outside.

So why not Amare or Bosh? Because I think both players will simply clog the lane more for Lebron. But both players can shoot from the 15 ft range, you say? True, but the more I think about it, the more I question if paying a max salary for a big man who's going to drift outside offensively (unless he's special in that regards, like Dirk) is more a luxury than a necessity.

See unlike the other teams that are trying to attract Lebron, we have one piece that they do not have...a post scorer in Brook. That's why all these other teams are trying to get Bosh and Amare alongside James. We don't need to. We already have another big man to compliment James' playmaking and penetrating offense. So if we are to get Lebron, is it too far-fetched an idea to switch our mindset to balance the team more, especially since outside shooting is an incredible weakness that this team has?

Anyway, back to Joe Johnson, and his age, because I know that's one thing that most people don't like about him. And I believe the same too, if he's a #1. But if he's being signed as a #2, I think the load that is taken off him will prevent him from wearing down too quickly. And besides, shooters tend to last longer than athletic guys who get pounded because they can't shoot. Even if we give him a max deal for 6 years, I think he'll still be a good player at the age of 34 when the contract expires.

So why Joe Johnson instead of Gay? For one, Gay is Restricted. As Enetric have said, if he's unrestricted, I take a shot at him, probably for a considerably cheaper price tag. But he's restricted, and all indications are that they'll match. Also, if the Hawks decide that they want to part ways with Johnson, getting a fast-paced PG like Devin would be an awfully great compensation for them given how they supposedly will like to run more this season under new coach Drew.

Having said all that, here's the prospective line-up should we land Lebron and do a S&T for Joe Johnson:

PG - Dooling, ??? (late first rounder)
SG - Johnson, Lee
SF - James, Twill
PF - #3 pick (Favors? Cousins?)
C - Brook

On first glance, you look at Dooling and ??? and you say, I'm not sure I want to give up Devin for that. But in looking at it from a fit standpoint, isn't Keyon the ideal PG alongside Joe Johnson and Lebron? The guy is a competitor, he plays man-up defense, and he can shoot. He's not a natural PG, but the ballhandling and playmaking ability of Lebron/JJ will easily cover that weakness. And of course, with two max players, it's good to find players who fit and are cheap.

By making this move, I think we also significantly improve our bench play, because now...Lee and Twill will be headlining that unit...instead of being starters. And even then, we also have the flexibility of letting Joe play with that 2nd unit as the PG offensively.

This team, IMO, is a contender in year 1, championship caliber in years 2-5.

[enetric]

I thnk we have to deal with Dooling before July 1st...so I cant see them rolling the dice and not buying him out.

So we are clear here that the Raps do not have to take back within 25% if they deal with a team under the cap? OK...great. So then the match is irrelavent. Great. Anyone else want to confirm or deny that thinkng? If so then it makes the idea of the Beasley conversations moot.


As for JJ...Speedy....for me? yes to fit...no for contract per talent. It will be a bad contract in two seasons. Not willing to do that and be stuck with him is my issue.

As for Lee...yes...sure about BYC. But, if there is no match issue for the Raps since the Knicks are under the cap...then why does it matter for them either? I guess Lee is only an issue for them if they try to deal with a team over the cap from what you guys are saying. But yes...rule is...if your raise is more than 20% over last season's salary Coon says...your tradeable portion is BYC. he made 7 mil this year will get 12-14 mil.

[SpeedyG]

I thnk we have to deal with Dooling before July 1st...so I cant see them rolling the dice and not buying him out.

So we are clear here that the Raps do not have to take back within 25% if they deal with a team under the cap? OK...great. So then the match is irrelavent. Great. Anyone else want to confirm or deny that thinkng? If so then it makes the idea of the Beasley conversations moot.

My belief is that we'll still have to deal with matching if it's for the 2nd max. First max, no problem, we have the salary to cover it. But 2nd max? I believe matching will have to happen since that 2nd max's contract will take us over the cap. But again, i'm rusty on this.

As for JJ...Speedy....for me? yes to fit...no for contract per talent. It will be a bad contract in two seasons. Not willing to do that and be stuck with him is my issue.

I think it will take him three years minimum to become not worth the contract. Two years is too early. He's 28 now, he'll be 30 in two years, and as a jump shooter, and a slasher who relies more on fakes and finesse, I don't see him as a below 20ppg scorer until he turns 31 or 32 (touches/shots allowing of course). Ray Allen, at the age of 33, was still avg 17 ppg in a team that also had PP and KG, and 18 last year at 34, with still good percentages. Reggie Miller didn't dip to 16 ppg until he's 37. At the age of 31, he was still very much a 20 ppg scorer.

And as we said before, once you have that franchise player in place, then is the time to take risk, even with guys who may not be worth the money so long as it works on the court. As a #1 signing and no Wade or Lebron, no way do I touch this deal. As an incentive "throw-in" to convince one of those guys to come on board, it's something to consider, IMO.

[vincecarter4pres]

It's been awhile since I've done extensive reading on the CBA, so just like you, I might be wrong on this, but I believe that if we do a S&T for a second (meaning we already used most of our cap space for the first), I do believe that the team we're making a deal with must follow salary matching rules.

They have to follow salary matching rules, but only for the difference.
We should have about 27 and change to 28 million in cap space if the cap is set at 56.6, going by last year's rookie cap holds, although I am not sure if the rookie salary goes up yearly per CBA, or is adjusted by cap, so that is the reason for my discrepancy.
Even if rookie salary goes up, it is minimal and the cap holds wouldn't effect cap space by more then around 400K total.

So lets say we use the aproximate 16.6 million on Lebron.
That leaves us with 11.4 in cap space, plus the 440K extra from a cap hold canceled.
So then if we S&T for Bosh, we would have to send out matching salary to make up the difference of what we lack in cap space.
I am not sure if we can send back 25% plus $125K less in a S&T though, but I believe you can.
This means we can send back about 4.3 million less then his contract.
Meaning we can send out 12.3 in salary. This means we are .4 of a million short of the pure cap space needed, so we must match that. This can simply be done by sending out the Dallas pick, CDR or the 31st pick signed.
In a UFA S&T, usually the compensation isn't very high. Something like a 2nd rounder or two. This year may be very different because of the level of the players being sent out, the demand for them and the amount of teams that are lined up to sign them.
Regardless, it won't be anything crazy like our 3rd overall outgoing, IMO, but I think it will take something like whoever we drafted at the Dallas pick and a future 1st to get it done, maybe CDR thrown in as well, maybe Courtney Lee at worst.
That way the team S&Ting their player still recieves some sort of compensation and takes on almost no long term or even short term salary.

Edit: If the 25% plus $125K rule doesn't apply to free agent S&T's, then we would be about 4.7 million short on cap space for a 2nd max, meaning we would have to get said team to take back Yi in addition to the other compensation I listed.

[vincecarter4pres]

I thnk we have to deal with Dooling before July 1st...so I cant see them rolling the dice and not buying him out.

I assume we'll buy him out, but that doesn't mean we can't resign him to vet minimum after all the other free agents are signed, if he was willing to sign for that.

[enetric]

I thnk we have to deal with Dooling before July 1st...so I cant see them rolling the dice and not buying him out.

So we are clear here that the Raps do not have to take back within 25% if they deal with a team under the cap? OK...great. So then the match is irrelavent. Great. Anyone else want to confirm or deny that thinkng? If so then it makes the idea of the Beasley conversations moot.

My belief is that we'll still have to deal with matching if it's for the 2nd max. First max, no problem, we have the salary to cover it. But 2nd max? I believe matching will have to happen since that 2nd max's contract will take us over the cap. But again, i'm rusty on this.

As for JJ...Speedy....for me? yes to fit...no for contract per talent. It will be a bad contract in two seasons. Not willing to do that and be stuck with him is my issue.

I think it will take him three years minimum to become not worth the contract. Two years is too early. He's 28 now, he'll be 30 in two years, and as a jump shooter, and a slasher who relies more on fakes and finesse, I don't see him as a below 20ppg scorer until he turns 31 or 32 (touches/shots allowing of course). Ray Allen, at the age of 33, was still avg 17 ppg in a team that also had PP and KG, and 18 last year at 34, with still good percentages. Reggie Miller didn't dip to 16 ppg until he's 37. At the age of 31, he was still very much a 20 ppg scorer.

And as we said before, once you have that franchise player in place, then is the time to take risk, even with guys who may not be worth the money so long as it works on the court. As a #1 signing and no Wade or Lebron, no way do I touch this deal. As an incentive "throw-in" to convince one of those guys to come on board, it's something to consider, IMO.

if the second contract in puts us over the cap...yeha salary match.

As for JJ...

He will be 29 in two weeks. So start of the season...29.

I dont think he is worth the 16.8 mil he will get for the coming season right now. After two years at 31 when he is making the 20mil range salary with three full seasons left he will be untradeable and declining and extremely over paid is my guess. i think he is the next Rashard lewis siging in this league...and I like Rashard. But no way is he worth that contract.

I just happen to feel...Lee at 14 mil no S&T needed is a better way to go than JJ for the econd guy. Keep all th rest of our assts...two straight signings that are young. Much more flexibility later.

So and so star demands a trade in two years...lee and Twin offered in a deal vs JJ and a prospect?

Just dont like J for the long term...you know what I mean? Yes, i agree he would resolve the shooting issue a good fit. But I think we can resolve it in other ways that arent goin gto cost so much cap space and such a big commitment to a 29 year old ball player who isnt on that level despite recent stats. That's me. I dont think he is worth the cash.

[enetric]

It's been awhile since I've done extensive reading on the CBA, so just like you, I might be wrong on this, but I believe that if we do a S&T for a second (meaning we already used most of our cap space for the first), I do believe that the team we're making a deal with must follow salary matching rules.

They have to follow salary matching rules, but only for the difference.
We should have about 27 and change to 28 million in cap space if the cap is set at 56.6, going by last year's rookie cap holds, although I am not sure if the rookie salary goes up yearly per CBA, or is adjusted by cap, so that is the reason for my discrepancy.
Even if rookie salary goes up, it is minimal and the cap holds wouldn't effect cap space by more then around 400K total.

So lets say we use the aproximate 16.6 million on Lebron.
That leaves us with 11.4 in cap space, plus the 440K extra from a cap hold canceled.
So then if we S&T for Bosh, we would have to send out matching salary to make up the difference of what we lack in cap space.
I am not sure if we can send back 25% plus $125K less in a S&T though, but I believe you can.
This means we can send back about 4.3 million less then his contract.
Meaning we can send out 12.3 in salary. This means we are .4 of a million short of the pure cap space needed, so we must match that. This can simply be done by sending out the Dallas pick, CDR or the 31st pick signed.
In a UFA S&T, usually the compensation isn't very high. Something like a 2nd rounder or two. This year may be very different because of the level of the players being sent out, the demand for them and the amount of teams that are lined up to sign them.
Regardless, it won't be anything crazy like our 3rd overall outgoing, IMO, but I think it will take something like whoever we drafted at the Dallas pick and a future 1st to get it done, maybe CDR thrown in as well, maybe Courtney Lee at worst.
That way the team S&Ting their player still recieves some sort of compensation and takes on almost no long term or even short term salary.

Edit: If the 25% plus $125K rule doesn't apply to free agent S&T's, then we would be about 4.7 million short on cap space for a 2nd max, meaning we would have to get said team to take back Yi in addition to the other compensation I listed.

We have just under 27 now. Just over with the first cap hold removed by my math and 55.89 projected cap.

[enetric]

I thnk we have to deal with Dooling before July 1st...so I cant see them rolling the dice and not buying him out.

I assume we'll buy him out, but that doesn't mean we can't resign him to vet minimum after all the other free agents are signed, if he was willing to sign for that.

True...and I would be fine with that. I like Dooling but we have to buy him out unless we make a key trade before July 1st to get one star in like the far fetched Chris Paul move.


BTW...the number i gave was with us keeping CDR. if we let him go..yeah 28.