Group A
Uruguay:
-Advances if they don't crash in the Andes and resort to cannibalism (too soon?). They have a five-goal differential on France; if they win or draw, they're in. For example, if they lose 2-0/3-1 to Mexico and France wins 3-0/4-1 against South Africa, they'll each have an equal number of goals for/against...which means that they'll draw lots for advancement. South Africa could conceivably advance over Uruguay as well, but the odds of them winning 3-0/4-1 over the French and Mexico beating Uruguay 4-0/5-1 aren't great.
-Wins the group if they tie or beat Mexico. If they lose, Mexico wins on tiebreakers, and Uruguay is almost assuredly stuck with Argentina in the Round of 16.
Mexico:
- Advances under the same criteria as Uruguay, as they have the tiebreaker over France if goal differential/goals scored are equal.
- Wins the group if they beat Argentina.
France:
- Advances if they hold a five-goal differential in the last set of games over either Argentina or Mexico with one team winning that game, as noted above. Basically, their only hope is to run up the score and hope that Argentina/Mexico doesn't end in a draw.
- Cannot win the group.
South Africa:
- Advances if...**** it, they aren't advancing.
- Wins if: Lawlz.
Group B
Argentina -
For all intents and purposes, have advanced and won the group. The Greeks would need to beat them by at least three, or South Korea would need a Greek win and a massive game against Nigeria, and...yeah. Not happening.
South Korea
- Advances if their result against Nigeria is equal or better than Greece's result against Argentina (as they are +1 on goals scored with an equal differential) with the exception of a 0-0 draw vs. a 2-2 Argentina/Greece draw or any such combination of results that sees Greece score 2+ goals above and beyond South Korea's total.
Wins if: just not happening, unless Maradona decides to play...alone.
Greece:
- Advances if, as above, they match or best SK's effort, but do it in a much more high-scoring affair. Ain't not gonna win the group.
Nigeria:
- Advances if they beat South Korea, and Greece loses to Argentina. If that happens, all three teams will have a piddly three points, and Nigeria will necessarily have the best goal differential. Surprisingly good shape considering the fact that they've lost their first two games.
- Can't win the group.
Group C
Slovenia:
- Advances if they tie or beat England, or the US fails to beat Algeria.
- Wins the group by beating England; if they tie England and the US wins by two or more goals, the Americans win the group. If they tie and the US wins by a single goal, the winner of the group will be determined by goals scored in the final game. Winning this group might not necessarily prove beneficial, though.
England:
- Advances if they beat Slovenia...unless I'm very much mistaken, a tie will not be good enough, as a US win would lead to their advancement, an Algerian win would lead them to take the second berth, and a US/Algeria tie would lead to England's advancement only if they score 3+ goals more than the US in that game...a 2-2 tie and 0-0 US/Algeria (or 3-3, 1-1, etc.) draw would leave the US and England drawing lots, which would be **** hysterical.
- Wins if: they win and the US doesn't, or both win and they score 3+ more goals than the US, as above.
United States
- Win and they're in the Round of 16. Draw and they're in only if England draws or loses, and only if England doesn't end up in a really high-scoring draw (hah).
- Wins the group if: they win and Slovenia doesn't, or they win and England wins by an equal or smaller margin, the high-scoring game caveats from above applying.
Algeria:
- Advances if they win, and Slovenia either draws against England or beats them outright. There is seriously a chance that Slovenia AND Algeria advance out of this group.
- Cannot win the group.
Group D:
Ghana:
- Advances if they win or draw against Germany. If they lose to the Germans, they'll need Serbia to lose to Australia, or draw...the latter only works if Ghana loses by a single goal (as they own the head-to-head tiebreaker in that event), and only if they're able to maintain their +1 in the 'goals scored' category over Serbia.
- Wins if: they win against Germany, or both games end in draws.
Germany:
- Advances if they win against Ghana, or if both games end in draws. If Serbia loses to the Aussies, Germany needs at least a draw to advance.
- Wins if: they win the final game. Basically, should that happen, there's no possible way save a 5-0 win that Serbia can take the top spot.
Serbia:
- Advances if they win against Australia, if they tie and Germany loses, or if Germany wins by two goals or more and they draw, or Germany wins, Serbia draws, and Serbia outscores Ghana by two or more goals.
- Wins if: they win and Germany-Ghana ends in a tie. If there's a winner in the Germany-Ghana game, they can finish no higher than second.
Australia:
- Advances if they beat Serbia and Ghana beats Germany. Unlikely though that is, they could end up advancing with a goal differential of -3 on thereabouts. Insanity.
- Can't win the group.
Group E
Netherlands:
- Have secured advancement.
- Win the group with a draw or better, or a one-goal loss and a draw or one-goal margin for either Japan/Denmark.
Japan:
- Advance with a win or draw against Denmark.
- Win the group with a big win and Dutch loss.
Denmark:
- Advance with a win against Japan.
- Win the group with an even bigger win and Dutch loss.
Cameroon:
- Totally boned.
Group F
Paraguay:
- Advance automatically with a draw or win against New Zealand. Can also advance with a loss to NZ and a draw between Italy/Slovakia, or a one-goal loss to NZ and Slovakian win of two goals or fewer.
- Win the group with a win over NZ. Additionally, can win with a draw against NZ and an Italian win, if Italy doesn't win by three or more goals or score 2+ goals in excess of Paraguay's total in the final game.
Italy:
- Advance automatically with a win against Slovakia. If both Italy-Slovakia and Paraguay-NZ end in draws, Italy will advance if they score more goals in the final game than does NZ. Score fewer and they're out...score an equal number and New Zealand and Italy will draw lots for advancement. Heh.
- Win the group with a win over Slovakia and a Paraguayan loss to New Zealand, but only if a) they win by a larger margin or b) they win by the same margin but score more goals. Can also take the group with a three-goal victory over Slovakia and a draw between Paraguay-NZ, or a two-goal victory under the same scenario (equalizing the +/-) while scoring 2+ goals in excess of Paraguay's total in the final game.
New Zealand:
- Advance automatically with a win against Paraguay. Additionally, can advance if both games draw and they score a greater number of goals in the final game than Italy. As mentioned above, two draws of identical scores and we draw lots.
- Win the group with a victory over Paraguay and an Italian loss/draw against Slovakia, or a win against Paraguay and Italian win against Slovakia, if NZ wins by a greater margin/same margin with more goals scored. Again, if both clubs win and score the same number of goals in so doing, both Italy and NZ will advance, and will draw lots for advancement.
Slovakia:
- Advance automatically with a three-goal win against Italy. Can also advance with a two-goal win and a Paraguay-NZ draw, or a win against Italy and Paraguayan victory. Cannot advance with anything less than a victory.
- Cannot win the group.
Group G
Brazil:
- Have secured advancement.
- Win the group with a draw or win against Portugal.
Portugal:
- Advance with a win or draw against Brazil. Will also advance with a loss if Cote d'Ivoire fails to score roughly 86 goals against North Korea.
- Win the group with a victory over Brazil.
Cote d'Ivoire:
- Advance if Brazil beats Portugal (preferably by 3+ goals) and Cote d'Ivoire massacres the North Koreans. Anything less than 6-0 probably isn't going to do the trick.
- Can't win the group.
North Korea:
- Going nowhere. At least they'll always have the fact that they scored against Brazil.
