A plan to compete given current assumptions

[evildallas]

This is just a suggestion not "my" plan. My plan wouldn't of paid Joe, would have preferred Brad Miller, etc. I'm basing it on Lebron likely leaving Cleveland and us not being able to deal Bibby.

Marvin Williams to the Cavaliers for a S&T of Shaq.
Why? It allows us to pay more to Shaq than he can get from a team with only the MLE to work with. We could pay him 7.5-8M a season in this deal which should solve the acquisition problem. Shaq might prefer San Antonio, but he really prefers to get paid given the divorce he just went through.
Why for Cleveland? Gives them a young SF under contract to step in while they work on a rebuilding strategy. In a different system without players that have had seniority over him since he was 19 Marvin might breakout. Worth the risk for them.

Match Josh Childress offer sheet or just convince him to play out the QO.
Why? Although he may still have bad blood it could be smoothed out by making him the starting SF. He would fit the role of glue guy better than Marvin did as the last option offensively.

Use most of the MLE to upgrade backup PG. My top candidate is Earl Watson because Kyle Lowry is a RFA. I'm not opposed to Nate Robinson either, but I think defense and assist rate are more important right now.

Sign one more backup big on the less expensive tip. Not sure who fits best, but I'll start with either Ian Mahinmi or Earl Barron. Could be a PF. I'm not opposed to signing two players if the 2nd guy can be signed at vet minimum.

I'd like to deal Bibby, but it isn't necessary right now. He'll have more trade value later as an expiring contract (or near to it). I'm also not opposed to dealing Jamal Crawford for help as well, but I didn't find any targets that I felt gave us more than Jamal already does.

Resulting roster:
PG Teague/Watson/Bibby
SG Johnson/Crawford/Crawford
SF Childress/Evans
PF Smith/Pachulia
C Horford/O'Neal/Mahinmi

Doesn't have the star power, but has a complete lineup that Miami will have trouble fielding this year given cap rules.

[theatlfan]

I do like to see realistic off-season plans. It always kills me when I see something akin to trading our role players for stars or even taking a stab @ someone like Iverson last year. Thanks for this, it's refreshing.

As far as the plan:
1) Not sure why you don't think we can trade Bibby. Someone who can hit 40% from 3, can run the pick and roll, and can trigger an offense isn't too overpaid @ $5.5 mil. Yeah, his D will limit his minutes, but he can still be a useful role player as a backup PG. I know that at least 1 DET fan would take him, and I could see teams like CHI, CHA, IND, and MIL showing some interest for him as well. With NYK and NJN being close the salary floor, one of those 2 might even be willing to take him for nothing more than pure cap space since he'd add a shooter to their mix. Personally though, I'd prefer to keep him as a 24 min/night guy while Teague develops. If nothing else, we wouldn't need to break in someone new who wouldn't get the proper minutes to gel with our starters.
2) Shocked to see you suggesting Chills over Marvin. I like it personally, but still... stunned.
3) I've been having a hard time figuring out a landing place for Crawford as well. He's a useful expiring that I don't think will fit into LD's O. I saw a POR fan suggest a Rudy + Przybilla for Crawford swap, but I think that their plan is a little different now after seeing players like CP3 in trade rumors with them. I keep thinking that if GSW were to try to pare payroll and put together a "real" team that isn't too swamped in future salaries, then possibly a 3-way with them for Ellis would work. We'd need to send Ja Crawford to 3rd team (no way GSW takes Crawford back... none) and add some sweetener (Teague? Jo Crawford?), but I just can't find that 3rd team though... and that's if they'd even trade Ellis for an expiring and prospects in the 1st place.
4) Would Joe Smith fit into the vet mini guy you're looking for? Just interested, nothing deeper.

[evildallas]

Quick replies.
1) I just think Bibby's value is down right now. Maybe it goes up when injuries hit, but I just couldn't figure out a team willing to commit to his salary right now.
2) I know the Childress thing is strange coming from me. I actually hate Childress, but Marvin should have more upside value to a post-Lebron Cleveland and his salary works to satisfy Shaq. Given the role available with Joe resigned I think Childress can fill it better. I also suspect the price tag might be less based on doubt that Atlanta would match. Perfect time to surprise people with a salary match.
3) The problem with the Portland deal is that Pryzbilla is expiring and Rudy could be if they don't pick up the option. The swap of expiring deals only really happens if the teams obviously have different needs. Not sure that applies here. We're more likely to find someone who regrets a summer signing by December and covet the expiring contract of Jamal to get a do over on it.
4) I thought about Joe Smith and didn't feel he provided enough on the court last year (may not have been his fault, but I'm trying to not blame everything on Woodson). If Shaq is part of the big rotation I'd rather invest in young and healthy like Mahinmi or Barron or Petro. I also have my eye on Joel Anthony if he gets squeezed out to make max cap room in Miami.

[theatlfan]

3) The problem with the Portland deal is that Pryzbilla is expiring and Rudy could be if they don't pick up the option. The swap of expiring deals only really happens if the teams obviously have different needs. Not sure that applies here. We're more likely to find someone who regrets a summer signing by December and covet the expiring contract of Jamal to get a do over on it.

According to the poster (and I don't remember his name... sorry), Crawford did fit what POR needed "perfectly" (jump shooting iso player who'd compliment Roy as he complimented JJ last year for us), and it'd be hard to argue that Przybilla and Rudy wouldn't have been nice fits here. Sure, there are significant ?s with both Przybilla (injury) and Rudy (if another Hawks rotation left to go overseas...) but it doesn't really matter anyway. POR's new GM isn't going to come in to "man the ship"; he's looking to parlay the young players there into an AS. Considering all the times that we heard that POR was in the mix for a big time player but fell short, I don't think that their owner is expecting anything less. He fired Pritchard (sp?) because he never got that guy - the new guy has to deliver.

The other thought I had for a similar deal was CHA. Nazr + (Gerald Henderson or DJ Augustin) for Crawford. With Captain Jack as a Point Forward, Crawford could fill in as a PG and backup for either Wallace or Jackson since Jackson could also play SF. That'd be good for at least 30 mins even if they got a very good PG to be the starter. I'm not sure about Brown and Crawford (although it's always curious who Brown decides he likes) nor am I crazy about the return - Nazr is fine, but I don't see much in Henderson that makes me think that Jordan Crawford won't be better (but there is the "2 in the bush" argument there) and as for Augustin, it always worries me when a player gets less minutes in his 2nd year than he did in his 1st - 2x so when his coach is a specialist @ his position.

Now that we're looking @ using the MLE for that true C though, maybe I should cast the new a little wider. Just throwing some ideas out there right now.

[evildallas]

Weird, I figured Pryzbilla was a bigger need given Oden's health issues than an extra shooter considering they send Webster (a shooter) away. But I don't watch the Blazers too much. I'd do that trade in a heartbeat. Pryzbilla would give a defense backup C presence and I really think Rudy can be good if given minutes.

I love the idea of Nazr Mohammad as he put up great numbers at C last year, but I never know what a Larry Brown team wants in trade.

[evildallas]

I'd like to amend the plan to say we need some mean players who don't care about being aligned with the cool kids. We could use a little crazy in our lineup.

[theatlfan]

Weird, I figured Pryzbilla was a bigger need given Oden's health issues than an extra shooter considering they send Webster (a shooter) away. But I don't watch the Blazers too much. I'd do that trade in a heartbeat. Pryzbilla would give a defense backup C presence and I really think Rudy can be good if given minutes.

Remember they've got Camby who filled in for Przybilla after he went down and he resigned. Przybilla is a #3 C in POR and they figure to cash him in now.

I love the idea of Nazr Mohammad as he put up great numbers at C last year, but I never know what a Larry Brown team wants in trade.

Bibby could be another option to ship there. But, yeah, it's Larry Brown. No idea if he'll overpay or hate it... just never know.

I'd like to amend the plan to say we need some mean players who don't care about being aligned with the cool kids. We could use a little crazy in our lineup.

Do I hear a trade for Zach Randolph brewing? Tell him that LeBron told the stripper to rat him out...

[evildallas]

^^^ Funny. No, Zach wasn't my target. Too expensive. Maybe Reggie Evans or Dahntay Jones. Just someone who can make the team take up an FU attitude with respect to the Heat.

The big keys are to be too quick at PG and too tough on the boards for the Heat. We've traditionally kept Wade in check, but Lebron has had his way with us. I'm not sure how we'll handle the two of them together, but I'm thinking some junk zones mixed in the defense rotation might be effective because they aren't as good of outside shooters as they are penetrators.

[azuresou1]

I really am not that worried about Miami. Sure, they have 2 superstars + an All-Star, but all are high-usage players, Wade + Bron are mediocre outside shooters, and currently they would have a rookie (Varnado) playing the 5 spot.

[killbuckner]

I still don't think there is any way that the Hawks pay the luxury tax

[evildallas]

I still don't think there is any way that the Hawks pay the luxury tax

If they don't they will squander this window of opportunity and then quickly become a high dollar version of the Washington Generals.


Also back on the FU type player, Raja Bell. If he was willing to clothesline Kobe, I think he'll have the attitude to stand up to the Heat.

[azuresou1]

Bad news, chap. Raja Bell is apparently in talks with Miami for a vet's minimum.

Let's sign Ben Wallace. Ben Wallace would straight up murder LeBron if Bron started dancing in front of him.

[azuresou1]

Also, he will probably board better than anyone on our team right now.

[evildallas]

You're right about Ben Wallace. However, just because someone is in talks with Miami is no reason to move on. It just means you can't offer them the minimum. Honestly we can't offer anyone worthwhile the minimum right now and have a chance to sign them. If Raja is someone we want then offer him the BAE and see if he wants to leave 1-2M on the table to play in Miami. We need to use the MLE and BAE to pick off key role players from the open market. It's one of the reasons I'd like to go after Shaq with a sign and trade deal (either using Marvin or Childress). It would allow the MLE to be used on someone else or split among 2 players.