WHICH WAY WIZ? Does it really help to try and compete now?

[Wiz99]

The Wizards find themselves at, what business consultants call, an inflection point. Things are gonna change. We demolished the trio of Gil, El Capitawn and Tough Juice, and shipped most of the remaining contributors elsewhere. And there's a new kid in town: welcome Mr. Wall. We have no choice but to begin again.

But this board is totally schitzo. There are two totally different voices echoing around inside the collective Wiz RealGM mind. One's saying "Win now and let the future sort itself out" and the other says, "No, we need a plan to hit an ideal window of about 4 years from now, and that might mean sucking ballz for awhile".

The first seems to be driven by equal parts hope, never-say-die refusal to quit, and an instinct to retain some pride. A couple choice quotes:

Rose, Noah & Deng made it to the playoffs...
Jennings, Bogut & Salmons made it...
Why can't Arenas, Wall & Dray...???

If you get to the playoffs, anything can happen. Didn't Golden State teach us that?

This crew thinks we can be in the playoffs this next season, and they want Ted and Ernie to bust a couple moves to make this squad competitive as fast as possible. Probably the best place to see this is in the calls to keep Miller, get Childress and/or resign Josh Howard.

The second camp sees itself as realists in the face of two superteams in our own division, but is more than hopeful about our chances several years from now. When the Orlando and Miami juggernauts start grinding on their own gears, they want the Wiz to have been plotting, scheming, making small moves here, a big one somewhere along the way, and ready to rush into the limelight and claim some glory. A couple representative quotes:

Can we trade Arenas to Cleveland for their future 1st's? LOL. Seriously, I'm all about getting rid of Arenas now after this Miami superteam. If we're going to tank, tank hard... Seriously, with Orlando AND Miami in the same division, it is just a lost cause.

my view is that we're kidding ourselves if we think we can be a contending team within the next four years with Gil. I could have seen it before, but the sands done shifted pretty good one us. We'll be alright, but I'm strongly in favor of pushing our window back.

This thread is my attempt to bring the two parts of our split personality and get them to talk. What I want to ask is this: can we compete now, and does this help or hurt the Wizards in their effort to build a contender?

I'll take the first stab at it. I want the Wiz to take the multiyear plan to being a contender. Sure I can see how we might build a squad that can steal a W from Orlando or the Heat, but no way we can compete in a 7 game series. What's worse, the price of trying to compete immediately would mean taking on some guys who might help in the short term but saddle us with mediocre, aging players that help us win 45 games, but give us no shot at winning 60.

I fear the Wizards being stuck in the NBA version of standing in the middle of I-495: not good enough to contend, too good to have high lotto picks and/or cap space to bust a big move. You gotta go all the way, or a semi carrying 6 tons of frozen chicken gizzards will flatten your a$$.

I was struck by this fantastic article about how wily ole Riley plotted for the past 4 years to pull of this recent coup. He set a goal, plotted how he would need to navigate the tides that were bigger than he and the Heat, and schemed on changing the things he could control. They dropped players, created cap space, traded for others, had backdoor conversations with everybody that mattered. What I admire about this is two-fold:

First, Riley didn't settle for a goal of just being competitive. He wants to contend, dammit. To me, the 8 seed in the playoffs says your just good enough to be included in the part of the NBA that doesn't suck. But you're still looking up at the few teams that really have a chance to win a trophy. I want the Wiz looking down on the universe.

Second, they were willing to suck for a couple years if that was what would be required to craft a new shot at a championship. If the Wiz need to blow chunks for a couple years, I can live with that, as long as I see management making solid choices. Even if they are always spectacular or ones with immediate payoff, I'll be happy biding our time, building a well-balanced, hungry machine ready to ascend the NBA mountain when our turn comes.

Discuss.

[dtom7610]

My take is that the Wiz are in a much better situation than most people realize. To start with, their core is made up of a phenom with legitimate point guard instincts, a shooting guard with a proven track record of making his teammates substantially better, and one of the better shoot/pass/drive big men in the league. In terms of developing talent on the rest of the team, while simultaneously being competitive, it's hard to ask for much more.

I know a lot of people worry about Arenas' defense, but I have a gut feeling that it will be better, in part because he will be playing the 2. Also, he was the best offensive player on a team that hardly emphasized defense, and had a (viewed from the outside) inane defensive scheme. In other words, for a young player it nurtured a certain ambivalence towards defense. Given all of the events over the last couple of years, coupled with not having to be the principle initiator of the offense, I look for a player eager to prove himself, especially on defense. And people forget quite how good he was on offense. He just makes the game look easy.

The rest of the team is made up of solid backups, and young, highly athletic players. Most importantly, a good mixture of brute force, size, length, and athleticism. With an offense centered around 3 players who can break down a defense, they have the potential to thrive.

Basically, without adding any new players (except possibly Singleton), this is a team that is going to get some wins. They will wear down defenses on the boards, they will run them to death, and they will not be a team that will be a physical pushover.

As far as tanking: winning breeds winning. Aiming for draft picks is a losing strategy. And signing mediocre FAs stunts development, while adding very little. I also wouldn't look for "shooters". Young, Arenas, and Hinrich are enough. The perimeter game is fool's gold. Teams win because they consistently break down defenses, and adding shooters doesn't help in that. Much better to have interior athleticism, and the three skilled players opening up the opposing team's interior defense.

So my vote is for the cake thing: go with what we have, overachieve, and develop chemistry. I am way more optimistic than most of this board. I am fairly confident that this team will surprise everyone.

[Kanyewest]

Basically the Bulls and Bucks had Salmons. Can the Wizards get someone like that in free agency? I think we get the most out of Wall, Blatche, McGee, Young, etc, if the Wizards somehow make it to the postseason. Their stock may actually get inflated with more national exposure and allows the Wizards a bigger opportunity to make a trade. It also shows what the Wizards need to improve upon to become a championship contender. It'll be good for teh Wizards to get some playoff experience against an Eastern Conference contender.

On the downside, it's harder to add pieces/starters picking outside the lottery. Then again there is no guarantee that the Wizards would get a stud in the draft. Basically the Wizards need to rebuild, not commit to any more long term salary commitments, and try to win.

[doclinkin]

I'm a 'cake too' guy.

Bit crazy with the fallout on this one, but I'm happy to consolidate my views on this thread so they don't get lost in the LeBJ one (which frankly ought to be reserved for insulting his fatheadedness).

Basically we have a duty to try to win, scratch and claw and fight and work to improve and attempt to compete at the highest levels. Because quite frankly that's the only way to learn to win: try your best, if you fall short re-tool and get better.

That said our core is way heavy with young talent. In this league the only way to win is with savvy and motivated and dedicated veterans. Young players don't get it. They don't intuitively understand all the sacrifices needed to make it to the next level, to play as role-players etc. In all likelihood we'll fall short for a while. Our Division is stacked, in much the same way the West is a dog-fight every year. But in that rumble you learn to survive, it helps us to battle the top competition, since those are the players our young guys will measure themselves against.

I personally don't think the Miami realignment dooms our plan at all. In fact I think it reinforces it. I don't think you can instantly assume the formation of the Me-Three Trio will translate into utter dominance. There are aspects that will initially prove an awkward fit. They'll sort it out, but if you peek at the usage rate of these players there's no way you simply add their stats together and assume they'll score a billion points per game. They'll be mighty good, they'll be mighty, but not indomitable.

But that's irrelevant, it's one good team out of a half dozen others. I think it's the Wiz' duty to fight our way into and up the ranks of that half dozen. But if we can solidify our brand as a great team to play for, if we can lockdown and keep our rookie superstar-to-be for his entire career, I have the feeling we can be a team on the rise every year with no setbacks. How quickly we rise is the question. Fact is we likely will collect high picks for a while unless our young veterans reach their potential quicker than their track record has suggested.

But if they do reach their potential swiftly, I get the feeling we could shock a whole helllalot of people. I just like the way this team is developing, one of those stronger than the sum of the parts things. I think we could discover ourselves to be really really good. Once we get it all together. If that happens fast, this is gonna be a fun ride.

(Family here now, more later).

[Bickerstaff]

I'm not sure there's any reason to bother imagining that the Wizards are going all out to win a ring any time in the immediate future. I'm for them making moves to field a competitive team, but I don't see them locking themselves into anything that's going to hurt their flexibility, unless they can get Melo, which would be interesting. I also think that it can't possibly hurt the team's young core to make it into the playoffs this year. So even though I voted "Hell yes", I guess I should have voted for "have your cake and eat it too," though if they can turn Arenas and Hinrich into assets that will help more in the long term, then I'm all for that.

[Wizards2Lottery]

I'm tired of watching a losing team. I want us to win games.

[Shanghai Kid]

Guys, we all only live once. How as a fan can you support the possibility of continuing the losing culture that has plagued the Wizards for most of our lives? What I wouldn't give to see the Wizards win 50 games in a season. Why? Because it never frigging happen! We have no history of even being able to do what the Hawks did last year.

What is the point of always "aiming for a competitive future down the line"? We just had two sub 30 win seasons in a row, and in the last twenty years we have never won more than 45 games. THINK ABOUT THAT for a moment. That whole Gilbert Arenas/Larry Hughes thing, that was our most SUCCESSFUL SEASON OF THE LAST 20 YEARS! All the rebuilding years, all the draft picks, all the "looking to compete down the line", it has NEVER worked out for the Washington Wizards. We still always end up back to square one. I don't know what plan there is to guarantee us success in the future, I don't think a John Wall led team is doing anything unless he's paired with other star players. We have one proven star right now, and possibly two up and coming stars. I say we go with it and see what happens. Did Boston trade Pierce? Nope. That worked out pretty well because when they brought two stars in, they already had a star in place to join forces with.

I legitly think trading Gilbert for cap space, and relying on the idea that some big free agent is going to come to a losing team could back fire in a big way. We just saw what happened to teams like the Knicks and Nets, losing teams that couldn't get a superstar despite having tons of cap space. And what makes anybody think that John Wall is going to want to stay with the Wizards if through his first few years we win 30 games? Isn't it best to put him in a winning environment from the get-go ala Rajon Rondo, Micheal Westbrook, Deron Williams, Derick Rose, Chris Paul? Holy hell, all the elite point guards in the league made the playoffs by the their second or third year! What franchise point guards struggled to make the playoffs in their first few years? Marbury, Devon Harris, Iverson....hmmm could it be that bad habits develop from point guards being on losing teams?

I say we see how Wall/Gilbert/Blatche works out this year, and than we make moves next off-season to field the most competitive team possible

[Illuminaire]

I'd just like to clarify my position:

I am all in favor of spending next year playing nothing but the youngsters and (by default) sucking pretty bad, then adding more talent through the draft. I see no reason to assume we can compete now and try to add assets to force that, when history suggests we need more than one good draft pick unless Wall is a top-5 player... and he won't be next year.

I do think we can be competitive the year after that though, if we pull off right rebuilding moves this year. I see a two year turnaround as very possible in a league where only five guys take the floor at once; a three year turn around would be acceptable but frustrating. Anything longer than that isn't a rebuild, it's a failed attempt at one.

As far as Gilbert goes, I do think we would benefit from moving him... but not necessarily right away. This year's trade deadline might be the point where an Atlanta or another semi-contender realizes they need another big weapon to have a chance in the playoffs, and provide our best chance to get a positive return on Arenas. At the same time, I want to see how he does mesh with Wall and the team as a whole. Dropping him for peanuts before even seeing what the results could be sounds flawed to me.

[nate33]

All the rebuilding years, all the draft picks, all the "looking to compete down the line", it has NEVER worked out for the Washington Wizards. We still always end up back to square one.

you have it exactly backwards. The problem with this franchise is that we never tried to rebuild through the draft. We've always looked for the quick fix. Webber for Richmond; Hamilton for Stackhouse; #5 for Jamison; #5 for Miller. It always backfires.

[AceDegenerate]

All the rebuilding years, all the draft picks, all the "looking to compete down the line", it has NEVER worked out for the Washington Wizards. We still always end up back to square one.

you have it exactly backwards. The problem with this franchise is that we never tried to rebuild through the draft. We've always looked for the quick fix. Webber for Richmond; Hamilton for Stackhouse; #5 for Jamison; #5 for Miller. It always backfires.

Wait, so in the last 30 years, How many times have the Wizards drafted in the lottery and how many times have they traded out? Cause I seem to remember a whole lot more lottery picks than you do.

[no D in Hibachi]

Isn't it best to put him in a winning environment from the get-go ala Rajon Rondo, Micheal Westbrook, Deron Williams, Derick Rose, Chris Paul?

Even in a winning environment he was still a knucklehead! I'm guessing you meant to say Russell...

I am in favor of putting the young players in the best possible situation to succeed and develop. If playing Blatche, Wall, and McGee heavy minutes leads to moderate success then so be it. The way I see it is Blatche and McGee, moreso McGee, have had enough time to grow that if they don't make big strides next year it'll never happen. It's really six's when comparing a developed McGee + the 10th pick in next years draft vs. a regressed/not developed McGee + a top five pick in next years draft. If McGee shows anything next year the Wiz will be a borderline playoff team. He's too skilled and long to not positively impact every game if he becomes more consistent.

I really think this question is being asked because the Wiz have Gilbert on the team. This team sans Gil is easy bottom 5 in the league, however, this team plus Arenas has potentially the best backcourt in the NBA. Since the Wiz haven't traded Gil yet its safe to assume it's because no one dares take a risk on him. He's here to stay for at least half a season. The best we can hope for is that Gil plays so good that either a team is willing to take a chance on him or he makes himself irreplaceable. If he rehabiliates his stock I'd rather keep him because it takes an incredible amount of luck to acquire bona fide all-star caliber players. Further, it's also because I don't trust EG will use the newly found cap space to really benefit the team. He turned max contract space into Yi, Seraphin, and Hinrich. That's not contending material. What is he going to do with Gils cap space?

[Illuminaire]

you have it exactly backwards. The problem with this franchise is that we never tried to rebuild through the draft. We've always looked for the quick fix. Webber for Richmond; Hamilton for Stackhouse; #5 for Jamison; #5 for Miller. It always backfires.

I started to go through our entire draft history, noting where we picked in the first round each year and our draft day trades... but it was too depressing to continue.

[Induveca]

This is the "logic" one must try to avoid. James/Wade/Bosh just signed for 6 years. Even if Wall becomes the next Isiah Thomas in under 2 years, and we sign the next Joe Dumars we're not coming close to getting out of the East. And if we do? Bryant and the Lakers await us.......

I used to be extremely respectful of the Knicks/Pacers/Blazers/Rockets/Magic etc as they all knew they had little chance of beating the Bulls in the 90s but they played their tail off and competed and the tanking/waiting to sign free agent vibe wasn't in their vocabulary back then. They played for their fanbase/cities and competed as hard as possible.

With the new vibe of "cap space", "tank", "what's the point" here on the board it's very disconcerting to me as an NBA fan. The common kid in the DC area with a Wizard jersey DESERVES to have his team at least compete. My memories in NY of John Starks, Ewing and Oakley as a teenager are nothing less than heroic.......even though I knew they could not defeat the Goliath of the Bulls. They fought hard and died trying.

Waiting to sign Carmelo Anthony and some unexpected amazing player, and then expect to defeat the Bulls/Lakers is foolish. The organization HAS to compete. The DC area has been cursed with a poor organization for decades now. There is no reason we can't be as exciting as the Warriors were when they had Run TMC. They were huge around the league, and were appreciated for playing hard and being fun to watch.

This is entertainment, and there is no reason why we have to not work hard and expect to win the lottery every year...........sad state of affairs to want to tank for multiple years.

[Dat2U]

I really think this question is being asked because the Wiz have Gilbert on the team. This team sans Gil is easy bottom 5 in the league, however, this team plus Arenas has potentially the best backcourt in the NBA.

That's what I'm not so sure about. There's alot of bad teams out there. Remember the Miami Superteam was formed by destroying two other teams. Cleveland and Toronto. Who's Toronto's best player now? Bargnani, LOL! That team is DOA. Cleveland got hit with a nuclear bomb. They would dream for a roster like New Jersey had last year at this stage.

New Jersey missed badly on free agency. How much does an incredibly raw Favors and an incredibly overpaid Outlaw improve an 12 win team?

Detroit & Indiana stink and made no significant additions. Philly's roster is all out of sorts. They gave away their best low post defender for the ghost of Nocioni & a stiff.

That's six teams I can think of that will be fighting for lottery position and that's just in the East.

IMO to lose 60-65 games would mean either a serious run of injuries or a lack of development by our young players, or both. I'd hate to see either. Even without Gil I think a core of Wall, Blatche, Hinrich, McGee etc could get us to 28 to 32 wins. Generally good enough for us to draft in the 6-10 range. In potentially very weak draft year. I don't see this as an ideal plan.

[Induveca]

All the rebuilding years, all the draft picks, all the "looking to compete down the line", it has NEVER worked out for the Washington Wizards. We still always end up back to square one.

you have it exactly backwards. The problem with this franchise is that we never tried to rebuild through the draft. We've always looked for the quick fix. Webber for Richmond; Hamilton for Stackhouse; #5 for Jamison; #5 for Miller. It always backfires.

Nate, you're dead wrong here. Grunfeld made foolish trades. When we made picks, he made foolish picks. I don't believe with the history of the franchise that the Pollin hiearchy had any clue or made management go through any thorough due diligence before they made a trade or made a pick.

You CAN sign some low level free agents, and make solid picks. Look at Portland these past 7 years. It didn't work out the way they wanted but they are a perfect example. Houston as well. Sign complimentary pieces and draft wisely.

To state we need to blow things up and start over when we never started to begin with is foolish. You're logic is "it hasn't worked before, why try again?". When you have a company run with nepotism and incompetence for 20 years, then suddenly are blessed with a CEO and new ownership of the highest level you don't hogtie them with the decisions and expecations of the aforementioned incompetents.

Nate, these past few months the doldrums of the Wiz franchise and history have really shown through in your posts and suggestions (trade Arenas for Curry, WHAT?....etc). Now tank because the org has had no luck with poor management? Massive respect for your knowledge of the cap and the game. But don't forget this franchise is not cursed with anything but poor ownership and management.........that is nearly gone now.

[no D in Hibachi]

IMO to lose 60-65 games would mean either a serious run of injuries or a lack of development by our young players, or both. I'd hate to see either. Even without Gil I think a core of Wall, Blatche, Hinrich, McGee etc could get us to 28 to 32 wins. Generally good enough for us to draft in the 6-10 range. In potentially very weak draft year. I don't see this as an ideal plan.

I completely agree with this. Next years draft projects to be very weak with the CBA looming. Why would someone early enter the draft when there a potential lockout? That means the Wiz will need to tank two more seasons to get good young players to add to the team?

This teams best chance to compete in the future is to hope for a revived Arenas and significant development from McGee and Seraphin. If Wall becomes a cross of Rose/Rondo, Arenas returns to a 20+ per player, Blatche maintains his second half play and McGee harnesses his potentiall I really believe they'd match up well against the Heat and actually have a chance considering they'll have cap space to add better role players.

[Hoopalotta]

If Wall becomes a cross of Rose/Rondo, Arenas returns to a 20+ per player, Blatche maintains his second half play and McGee harnesses his potential I really believe they'd match up well against the Heat and actually have a chance considering they'll have cap space to add better role players.

I think you've been hittin' 'em out of the park pretty good of late, but I don't know about this here.
From a reasoning standpoint, if I thought that was true I would be good with staying the course, yeah, but well, my instincts are not aroused towards affirmation. Maybe that and a test-tube of amoebic dysentery pathogens strategically placed in the HEAT's team salad bar before game one of a series would push our odds up?

I'll have something more meaty and general for this thread later.

[sfam]

you have it exactly backwards. The problem with this franchise is that we never tried to rebuild through the draft. We've always looked for the quick fix. Webber for Richmond; Hamilton for Stackhouse; #5 for Jamison; #5 for Miller. It always backfires.

I started to go through our entire draft history, noting where we picked in the first round each year and our draft day trades... but it was too depressing to continue.

We rarely if ever relied on our drafts. I think its a great time to do so. I'm all in favor of Leonsis' strategy, but I'm not in favor of dumping all our assets to start "fresh". Whether we like it or not, Gil is our biggest asset outside of Wall right now. We don't need to dump him. We need to build around Blatche, Gil and Wall. We need a real center and a SF who can defend and hit threes. If we don't get them this year (and no, I'm not sold on McGee at all), we can try again next year...through the draft, either with our own picks or others. I'm also not opposed to buy young players who might still blossom - like Yi for instance.

But yeah, we should be trying to win. Not like, "Win now at all costs so buy that last piece" win, but we should try to win all the same. Utah hasn't ever won a championship, so really, we are one up on them. But gosh, I'd be OK with a history of winning, along with an occasional foray deep into the playoffs. That's probably the chance for a title we're gonna get right now, unless luck into another outstanding piece.

[Rafael122]

Miami getting Lebron and Bosh means we have to act fast or else WE risk losing John Wall in about 5 years. Building through the draft is a nice idea in general, but a team like Portland does that, and it hasn't taken them anywhere. Ted, hopefully, realizes that the NHL and NBA Drafts are different, in that the NBA has just 2 rounds, and the NHL has ?? rounds. An NHL roster also has what...25 guys, while an NBA team has 13. So you can only build through the draft for so long before you decide to spend some money.

So yeah, I'd say compete now. I'd peg us as a 7th or 8th seed right now with all the free agency moves that have been made, but with the right trade, we could be as good as a 6th seed. It seems like Melo and Paul have their mind set on New York in 2 years. That's fine. Next year, however, I think we have to go after Marc Gasol. I think McGee has a lot of potential as a 20-25 minute per game guy off the bench, but with Marc Gasol, you add a legitimate center, to go with a natural 4 in Blatche. You have Wall and Arneas in the backcourt, and you could possibly plug in anyone at the 3.

[likwitdesi]

This draft is not worth tanking for. It is Harrison Barnes and then a huge dropoff. I doubt we strike lightning in a bottle twice. Let's rather look to win this season and have these young guys be proud of themselves.