30 or Bust? Or maybe 27?

[LOBO 7]

In the intro to last night's game thread at Canis Hoopus, Stop-N-Pop had a link to this spreadsheet:

https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key ... l=en#gid=0

I'm not sure if Stop-N-Pop put it together or if someone else did, but it is a blueprint for winning 30 games this year, with games labeled as must-wins for us to reach that goal. Most of the remaining must-wins on the chart are home games against some pretty bad teams (New Jersey, Charlotte, Washington, Toronto, Sacramento, Philly, Clippers) but then there are some tougher teams at home (Portland, Houston, OKC, Memphis, Indiana) and some road games (@Clippers, @Cleveland, @Detroit, @Washington).

Before this season started I was among those that thought that this team was talented enough to win 30 games and surprise some people. There is no question that injuries have slowed us down up to this point, and with so many new faces there is inevitably some time needed to gel. So, we have gotten off to a slow start. But I still feel like it's really important for this team to stay positive, keep on fighting, and try to finish the season as strong as possible to build confidence going into next year. If we can stay relatively healthy (reports are Tolliver is ahead of schedule for his return) I still think we can win 25+ games. I know some of you are already thinking about the draft, but I really don't want to resort to that type of thinking at this point, and I think the team should try as hard as possible to scrap out as many wins as possible.

Anyways, it's an interesting spreadsheet and it will be interesting to follow along with it as the season goes on.

[Ice32]

Thats a cool piece of work! I hope they can win 30, but I feel a trade is coming soon...which will help us get over the hump..

[shangrila]

As long as we win more then last year I'm happy.

[wolfbourne]

I was thinking pre-season 28-33, and i was putting a lot emphasis of the success of this offseason/season on the W-L record, but that has changed for me right now. As long as we crack 20 i am happy.

This new team has had it tough to start the season. Fixture aside, so much gelling time has been lost with the merry-go-round of injuries the team has had to put up with. I know injuries are a part of the game, and we aren't the only team in the league thats dealing with these sorts of issues. But i don't think its entirely fair to base the success of this season on the W-L record at the end, especially if we only end up playing maybe 20-25 games with our proper 9/10 man rotation.

And if we only do end up getting 20-25 games with our proper rotation setup, how sporadic will these full squad games be? Two games of full line-ups here, break of 3 games, 5 games there, break of 20 games, 9 games here, break of 17 games....yada yada yada.

I think when KLove blogged for us to mark his words that "We will win 30' was pre-Martell (? please correct me if im wrong) and of course he probably didnt think we would suffer from the sheer scope of injuries we have had this season. At least none of them have been dramatically player changing or career ending.

[Piecake]

I think our record will start improving just for the simple fact that we wont have so many freakin road games once this road trip is finished

We actually have a somewhat decent home record. 5-6 aint bad, it just doesnt help your record when your 1-16 on the road (17 road games being the most in the NBA)

[LOBO 7]

^Yeah, that's another thing we need to keep in perspective, the fact that we have played more road games than any team in the NBA. Also, we're in the top third of the league in terms of strength of schedule. Both of those things will even out as the year goes on. Combined with additional time to gel, I don't think we should assume that since we only won 6 games in the first third of the season that we will only win 18 overall.
I'm not too hung up on the win total, I'm more concerned for the players building their confidence. So far, despite all the tough losses, everybody seems to be keeping their heads up and moving on to the next game, ready to fight another day. That is encouraging.
Also, one factor that I think Hanneman mentioned earlier this year is the sheer distances this team has to cover. Our isolated location, combined with the fact that we have played more road games than anyone else, must mean that the team has travelled a greater total distance than any other team. This isn't 2K11 where the next game is just a click away. In real life increased travel distance makes for later nights, less rest time, and that does become grueling.
If I had the time/initiative, I would punch all the cities we've covered into google maps to find the actual mileage.

Minneapolis> Memphis> Miami> Orlando> Minneapolis> Houston> LA> Sacramento> Minneapolis> Atlanta> Charlotte> Minneapolis> Oklahoma City> Minneapolis> Dallas> San Antonio> Minneapolis> New York> Minneapolis> Chicago> Oakland> Phoenix> Portland> Denver....and to LA on Monday. That is a LOT of travel any way you slice it.

We also haven't had more than a 2-game home stand all year, we have 5 3-game home stands and 1 4-game home stand still on our schedule. Those long home stands will provide a lot more practice time and rest, it will be interesting to see how those pan out and how our overall home record turns out this year.

Anyways, I'm not making excuses, just trying to look at some other factors that could and probably should be taken into account.

[Piecake]

It really seems that the Northwest division is simply the "left-over" division. Thats the only way i can explain The Blazers, OKC, and us all being in the same divison.

We should be in the Central division, damnit! I'm not exactly sure about how to go about that, but I imagine it somehow involves cream cheese, strippers, and a reindeer costume.

[jade_hippo]

This year for me was never about winning <X> number of games. It was cutting down on the blowout losses, and staying in games past the opening tip. The fact that coming to the Target center is not a sure fire W where a team can rest its starters in the second half, this has been a success already.

These last few weeks have very vividly reminded me of the early KG-Googs-Marbury teams. Every game caming down to late fouling and clutch shots. We lost a ton of games in the last 2 mins. My dad hated watching the Wolves because the last minute of the 4th was always longer in real time than the other 11min. This gives me hope, we can compete, its a giant step over last years team.

[LOBO 7]

Well, tonight is the first must-win game on the Road to 30 spreadsheet. We'll see. Apparently Darko is going to try to play. If he does, and puts in a solid effort, I like our chances. If not, it will be tough to get a W. The Clippers, like us, are better than their record or their reputation suggests. Key to the game tonight: whether Sterling's heckling of his own players serves to motivate them or to demoralize them.