Alright, usually I only do these at the beginning of a season, but I thought that I would have a little fun and do one now
. Lots of stats, poor commentary...so....here goes....Point Guard
Deron Williams 22p 9a
When Deron scores over 20 points the Jazz are 17-6 (73.4%), but when he scores 30 or more the Jazz are 4-3 (57%). When he scores 20 points or less the Jazz are 7-7 (50%). The lesson is that Deron needs to be a "go-to-scorer" without an offensive threat like Boozer, but he also needs to get other players involved. You would think that when he scores less he averages more assists, but the fact is that in the 14 games he has scored 20 or less he is only averaging 8.3 assists per game, and in the games where he scores between 20 and 30 points he averages 10.4 assists per game. My opinion is that Deron is one of the best players in the league at mixing scoring and passing, these stats seem to back that up.
Deron's assists, however, are one of the bests indications of how the Jazz are doing. When he has 10 assists or more the Jazz are 14-2 (88%). To me it is amazing that one stat can be such a great indicator of how a team is doing, especially when it is from an individual player.
Earl Watson 3p 2r 3a
Earl Watson has been an absolute revelation for the Jazz. He is the modern era Howard Eisley, a border-line starting point guard that is playing backup. I know he has a terrible jump-shot (Milt Palacio is the only point guard in recent memory that has a worse one, Jason Hart may be on a similar level), but he is a great defender and the Jazz just seem to click when he is in the game. The most important thing that he offers is the ability to keep the offense moving. In games that the Jazz win he averages more than double the amount of assists that he does in losses (3.4 vs 1.5).
It took Watson a while to finally integrate into the offense well, and as a result early in the year he didn't play as much as he has been during the last month and a half. Because of this his stats are a little bit hard to evaluate, but when he gets more assists the Jazz generally do better. I think a lot of this is due to the fact that when he gets more assists it means that the second unit is playing better as a whole.
Ronnie Price 4p 1r 1s
Ronnie is being used a bit different than he was before Watson came in. Before he was relied on much more as a primary ball handler in the second unit, now he doesn't have that responsibility. Watson is clearly the more talented player as a point guard, but Ronnie has still been able to help the Jazz in limited minutes. Statistically he just doesn't have a big enough sample size to show his value, but in games where the Jazz win he does shoot 9% better from 3 (32% vs. 23%), which suggests that when he can help spread the floor he really helps the second unit (because Fesenko and Elson have more room to operate).
Shooting Guards
Raja Bell 8p 2a 1s
I really like what Raja can bring to this team, but I don't like the way in which he is utilized. I think that he is a great player to have off the bench for 14-18 minutes, but I don't like him in the starting lineup (well, not now - I did at the beginning of the year). 8 points in 30 minutes of play just isn't cutting it in the starting lineup, especially when we are so poor in the first quarter. The one thing he does do well is play defense, and when Raja is active defensivly the Jazz are better. When he has a steal in a game the Jazz are 13-3 (81%). the problem for me is that he can still contribute in the same way off the bench, and his shooting would be valuable next to Watson. As long as Millsap or Jefferson is in a second unit without CJ should do just fine.
As I've said before, Bell's shooting is important to this team. At the beginning of the season he was shooting poorly, but now he has returned back to his usual form (38% from 3 on the season). When the Jazz win Raja shoots a full 10% better from 3 (41% vs. 31%). In fact, when Raja shoots 40% or better from three the Jazz are 10-4 (71%).
Gordon Hayward 4p 2r 1a
Hayward has been great, I know that people will point to November and try to offer up the argument that his stats were horrible, but you have to remember that he is a rookie. To me the way he moves without the ball, his screens and ability to be a right-place-right-time type of player means that he can be an extremely good player in the future. People may laugh at this comparison, but he reminds me a lot of Tayshuan Prince (who I love). In fact, their rookie stats are shockingly similar, Prince averaged 3 points, 1 rebound and 1 assist while Hayward is averaging 4 points 2 rebound and 1 assist. Their shooting percentages are similar too, Hayward shoots 44% from the field, 36% from 3 and 79% from the freethrow line while Prince shot 44%, 43% and 67%. At first I really hated the Hayward pick, but it didn't take me long to warm up to him and the more I've watched the happier I have become.
In games where Gordan plays well the Jazz play a lot better because he makes them a much deeper team (and depth is what they are really struggling with, we just need one more player). Again, he just hasn't played enough to have a significant amount of stats that point to this conclusion, but by the end of the year I fully expect this conclusion to be confirmed. I also expect him to start playing more minutes (like he has been lately). Overall I am really excited with his progression as a player, and I think with his athleticism and size he can easily play both wing positions, which should really help the Jazz since they will have the ability to play big or small.
Ronnie Price
See above.
Small Forwards
Andrei Kirilenko 11p 5r 3a
AK can be fantastic at times, and at times he can also be anemic. For a player that was once so great it is disappointing that he has found himself in this situation. It seems like he has finally been able to shake off the injuries from the past few years and become a consistent contributor. I expected him to play more power forward (which is his true position), but he has been playing fantastic basketball this season despite the fact that he is forced to play out of position (which, I think that he should not take minutes from Millsap or Jefferson, so that is just the way it is going to have to be).
AK's most important contribution this year has NOT been his defense (Jefferson's turnaround has made AK less important on that end), but his scoring. When Andrei scores 14 or more the Jazz are 10-2 (83%), and when he scores 10 or more the Jazz are 20-4 (83%). Those to stats are fantastic, it goes to show that when the Jazz have that 3rd (or 4th) scorer they are a much better team then when they are running their classic two-man game only.
The Jazz also play a lot better in games where Andrei plays more minutes; when Andrei gets 28 minutes or more Utah is 18-5 (78%). So, Andrei really is a difference maker on this team.
CJ Miles 12p 3r 2a
CJ is a gifted scorer, if a bit greedy. Much in the mold of JR Smith, he can score points in gobs, but when he is cold he's a much less effective player, and usually he hurts the team when he's not scoring because he will still shoot. As much as I hate his inconsistency, his effort on defense and what he can offer are important for the Jazz. Because of this I think that CJ needs to be starting at shooting guard. If Jerry were to move him into the starting lineup I think that it could really help Utah to shake those slow starts. Back when CJ was starting over AK there were several games where he scored most, if not all of his points in the first quarter. This move would limit our bench, but I think in the long run it helps us to win a lot more games.
When CJ scores the Jazz generally do extremely well. When he is in double-digits Utah is 16-4 (80%) and when he scores 20 or more the Jazz are 6-0 (100%).
Goran Hayward
See above.
Power Forwards
Paul Millsap 18p 8r 2a
Millsap has been a fantastic player for the Jazz this year, but I do have a couple of issues in the way he has been playing as a starter.
1. His rebounding rate is down...which is unacceptable since the Jazz have been such a bad rebounding team.
2. He isn't assertive enough.
Outside of those two issues he has been great, and once he fixes them he will make Boozer leaving seem a lot less painful. In games where Millsap has scored 16 or more points the Jazz are 15-7 (68%) and when he grabs 9 rebounds or more they are 9-3 (75%), and he has had more than 10 rebounds only 6 times this year.
Another key for Paul is freethrows. When the Jazz win Millsap shoots 13% better from the freethrow line (66% vs. 79%) and scores 2 more points per game (18 vs. 16).
Francisco Elson 3p 2r 1a
Elson has been a great rotation player this year. Since coming to Utah he has rejuvenated his career and become a key part of the Jazz game plan. Francisco's game fits so well in Utah because he can spread the floor for our big guys, and when Al and Millsap are hot Elson just feeds off of them.
Where Elson contributes the most for the Jazz, however, is on the defensive end - specifically rebounding. When he has 2 rebounds or more the Jazz are 12-6 (67%), and when he has block Utah is 8-3 (73%).
Jeremy Evans 3p 2r .1a 70%-fg
Again, Jeremy hasn't played enough to fully evaluate what he does for the Jazz, but I am really excited by his potential. I think that he is a bit of an AK-lite, long, athletic, good defender and slasher but not a good shooter (and not as good as a passer/ball-handler as AK). I think he is stuck between positions, and his frame really isn't meant for more weight, but I am excited by what he offers.
So far he has proven to be extremely efficient (70% FG), and I think that he can become the Jazz primary backup at power forward 2 or 3 years down the road.
Centers
Al Jefferson 16p 9r 2a
At the beginning of the season I said Al Jefferson was a better offensive player than Boozer; although he still hasn't proven it I'm not going to retract that assertion, in fact, I think that once Al's hand is better (which may not be until next year) I think he is going to prove it. It has taken a while for Al Jefferson a long time to finally figure out the Jazz offense, but his scoring average is slowly increasing, and I think after the all-star break Al is going to be a 19 and 9 player.
Jefferson is a key to the Jazz success, when he plays well they win. In games where the Jazz win compared to win they loose he averages 4 more points (17 vs. 13), shoots 8% better from the field (41% vs. 49%), and one more block (2 vs. 1). In games where Al had 20 or more points the Jazz were 9-2 (82%). I expect to see him have a lot more 20 point games in the second half of the season, and I expect the Jazz to win more.
Jefferson's defense has also been a revelation. Billed as one of the poorest defenders in the NBA, Jefferson has become one of the better post defenders in the league. When he has 10 or more rebounds the Jazz are 10-4 (71%), and when he has 3 blocks or more the Jazz are 7-1 (88%), and in games where he does not have a block the Jazz are only 2-3. Amazingly Jefferson has had a block in almost every game. He has been exactly what the Jazz needed from the center position.
Kyrylo Fesenko 3p 2r 1a
Fes has easily had the best year of his career, and he is showing glimpses of becoming a much better player. His footwork has been the biggest improvement of his game, and if he can gain a consistent hook shot he will be a legitimate second string center. Considering how late he was picked up in the draft I would say that he has been a fairly good investment.
Right now Fes does not play enough to really be able to fully evaluate his value to the team, but I think that he has at least earned another contract next year.
Mehmet Okur 6p 3r 1a
I think that Memo is the key to how the Jazz do in the second half of the year and in the playoffs. If he can play 20-26 minutes a game and give Millsap and Jefferson a breather when they need it the Jazz will be a much better team. His shooting is extremely valuable, and he is a very underrated passer and rebounder. Hopefully he can solve some of Utah's rebounding woes.
Expected depth chart moving forward
Jefferson 32/Okur 14/Fesenko 4
Millsap 30/Elson 8/Okur 10
Kirilenko 28/Hayward 8/Miles 12
Miles 12/Bell 24/Hayward 8/Price 6
Williams 34/Watson 14
Keys to winning
1) Rebounding
2) Integrating Okur
3) Balanced offensive attack (not just Deron)
4) Play up-tempo (fast-break opportunities)
Just can't be serious... Hayward's been playing well rounded D... a couple typical rookie timing, feet setting issues here and there, but dude's on his way to be a very good defender...
