Bill James Projections

[raptorforlife88]

They're out and it's a fairly positive outlook on most Jays players. Seems to expect Jose Bautista's OBP and average to drop back down, but I doubt that after watching this year.

Lawrie is pegged as a 284/337/495, which are very nice numbers for basically a rookie 3B. Projects 30 SB's as well which seems a little high.

Also expects improvement from Eric Thames - 279/333/489

Rasmus is projected to have a bounceback season. Slightly positive on Lind/JP/Johnson as well.

Just click on each guys player page to get the projection.

http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?tea ... 11&month=0

[Randle McMurphy]

Bautista-.383 wOBA
Lawrie-.361 wOBA
Thames-.353 wOBA
Encarnacion-.346 wOBA
Rasmus-.341 wOBA
Lind-.341 wOBA
Snider-.340 wOBA
Johnson-.336 wOBA
Escobar-.335 wOBA
Arencibia-.317 wOBA
Teahen-.312 wOBA
Davis-.303 wOBA
McCoy-.299 wOBA

This seems really optimistic on the whole (especially for guys like Thames, Lind, Snider, and Teahen), but if there are really 8 better hitters on the roster next year than Yunel Escobar, the Jays are going to have an awesome offense. Still think an upgrade at 1B is necessary to put this team in a position to contend.

While Thames may be good offensively, the problem is that he's a poor defensive player and likely won't be able to improve much in that area.

[rarefind]

Little too good to be true unfortunately. Even if it somehow happened, a bit of a stretch to suggest at this point as this is assuming that everyone bounces back (Davis, Teahen, KJ, Snider, Lind, Rasmus....and Thames is pegged extremely highly.

What is the chances of this happening under Murph?

[Hendrix]

could someone please explain to me why in wOBA, a HBP is worth more then a walk?


I don't really understand why he has Snider, and Thames both posting very good wOBA's, yet he has both of them only getting ~300 PA's each. If say... Thames was posting that wOBA throughout the first half of the year, why would we replace him with Snider. Or vice versa. I imagine Bill isn't implying that they would platoon, as they are both better against RHP'ing.

Also I'm having a tough time seeing where Davis is going to get 115 games worth of PT.

I don't think Lind is pegged that high. He's only pegged slightly above his career wOBA.

[Weems]

If you assume Morrow's LOB% will remain a gigantic problem, his projection is shudder-worthy with the significantly higher BABIP and BB/9. Heh.

[Modern_epic]

could someone please explain to me why in wOBA, a HBP is worth more then a walk?


I don't really understand why he has Snider, and Thames both posting very good wOBA's, yet he has both of them only getting ~300 PA's each. If say... Thames was posting that wOBA throughout the first half of the year, why would we replace him with Snider. Or vice versa. I imagine Bill isn't implying that they would platoon, as they are both better against RHP'ing.

Also I'm having a tough time seeing where Davis is going to get 115 games worth of PT.

I don't think Lind is pegged that high. He's only pegged slightly above his career wOBA.

As I recall, wOBA is based on a regression of actual events. A HBP is essentially a random event, while a walk, even a non-intentional walk, normally occurs with some small degree of intent. As a result, HBP is more likely to advance a runner than a non-intentional walk.

And while I agree with you about it, playing time prediction is hard, so I think Jams mostly bases it off of the previous year?

[Hoopstarr]

Bill James is known to have incredibly optimistic projections. He once projected Chris Davis to hit 40 HRs and hit .300.