Should the Jays Trade Bautista?

[augustine]

The Rangers and Angels have made significant moves to improve, while the Jays have largely stood still. So, in comparison with these competitors, we are falling behind and have no plans to significantly catch up in the near future.

The Yankees, Rays, Red Sox and Tigers have done nothing to lose ground, so the Jays remain behind them, and have done nothing to catch up.

Thus, so long as the Jays make no moves that improve them from being the seventh best team, and so long as only five teams make the playoffs, we have to assume that we are not favoured for a playoff spot.

Now, AA's plan involves watching the core grow, and this core is between the ages of 23-27. When Rasmus and Santos were acquired, he specifically mentioned that they are within the core age bracket. Plausibly, this core will not be at peak performance for a couple of years. This is even more likely if we include Gose/Hech/D'Arnaud/Hutch as our core. And, plausibly, Jose Bautista will be leaving his prime at that time. So, on AA's stated plan, it seems to make sense for the Jays to trade Bautista for a couple of pieces that are in the age of 23-27.

It seems AA has two reasonable options: (1) spend now to compete with a team featuring Bautista in his prime, or (2) don't spend now and trade Bautista for players in the prime age bracket. Unfortunately AA is choosing to not spend now, but keep Bautista. I presume his reasoning for keeping Bautista is that fans would go crazy if Bautista was traded, since it would reveal the fact that AA is not planning to compete now. Thus, he hangs on to Bautista to keep up some excitement, while we lack the horses to compete. While I agree that trading Bautista makes no sense, keeping him with no plans of supplementing the team also makes no sense to me.

Can anyone explain AA's reasoning?

[LBJSeizedMyID]

The Yanks are another year older, the Red Sox team chemistry issues have been called into question. What makes you think they did nothing to lose ground?

[Skin Blues]

The Rangers and Angels have made significant moves to improve, while the Jays have largely stood still. So, in comparison with these competitors, we are falling behind and have no plans to significantly catch up in the near future.

The Yankees, Rays, Red Sox and Tigers have done nothing to lose ground, so the Jays remain behind them, and have done nothing to catch up.

Thus, so long as the Jays make no moves that improve them from being the seventh best team, and so long as only five teams make the playoffs, we have to assume that we are not favoured for a playoff spot.

Now, AA's plan involves watching the core grow, and this core is between the ages of 23-27. When Rasmus and Santos were acquired, he specifically mentioned that they are within the core age bracket. Plausibly, this core will not be at peak performance for a couple of years. This is even more likely if we include Gose/Hech/D'Arnaud/Hutch as our core. And, plausibly, Jose Bautista will be leaving his prime at that time. So, on AA's stated plan, it seems to make sense for the Jays to trade Bautista for a couple of pieces that are in the age of 23-27.

It seems AA has two reasonable options: (1) spend now to compete with a team featuring Bautista in his prime, or (2) don't spend now and trade Bautista for players in the prime age bracket. Unfortunately AA is choosing to not spend now, but keep Bautista. I presume his reasoning for keeping Bautista is that fans would go crazy if Bautista was traded, since it would reveal the fact that AA is not planning to compete now. Thus, he hangs on to Bautista to keep up some excitement, while we lack the horses to compete. While I agree that trading Bautista makes no sense, keeping him with no plans of supplementing the team also makes no sense to me.

Can anyone explain AA's reasoning?

That all pretty much boils down to saying: spend now, strike while the iron is hot. And most of us agree. I don't think anybody would tolerate trading Bautista and starting another 5 year plan. I know I wouldn't.

[CPT]

I'd obviously prefer trying to put the right team around him, but if ownership isn't prepared to do that, the smart thing to do would be to sell high on Bautista.

If we're talking a young (27 or younger) All-Star and a few of a team's best prospects, we would be silly not to consider it.

[WpgPage]

For the right package you would have to consider it, but it would have to be a really really good package of players that times well with who we have already. 22-25 years old.

[RINSE]

Can we wait till the offseason is over and see what moves AA makes before starting threads like these?

[gei]

Assuming we do nothing more this offseason, then yeah in some ways it would make sense. We'd just finish in 4th place again for the next several years.

However trading Bautista would completely destroy any fanbase left and would set the stage for the Jays leaving Toronto. We'd average 5000 a game if we were lucky.

[KG1585]

Trading Bautista needs to be discussed depending on the route the Blue Jays want to take. If Alex wants to continue to pick up young players and develop them, then Bautista needs to be traded. You cannot waste prime of Bautista's career. If they want to compete now, then you keep Bautista and trade some prospects for proven Major League talent. You also go after Prince Fielder's of the world in the free agent market.

[WpgPage]

There are defiantly moves out there that would probably improve the team but your right trading Joey would kill baseball in TO and I don't know if it would recover.
If the Braves phoned AA and said Gose and Joey for Heyward andTeheran you would have to give a move like that a long long look.

[baulderdash77]

Assuming we do nothing more this offseason, then yeah in some ways it would make sense. We'd just finish in 4th place again for the next several years.

However trading Bautista would completely destroy any fanbase left and would set the stage for the Jays leaving Toronto. We'd average 5000 a game if we were lucky.

QFT. If they traded Bautista right now it would ignite fan anger like nothing else could. They might as well pack up and just leave if they did that.

[RalphWiggum]

Why in the world we would we trade a top 3 hitter in the majors who hit like he did with no real protection behind him and makes 20-30% less than most great hitters who put up numbers 20-30% less than he does? If he were 34-35 I can see the logic if you don't think we can compete over the next 2-3 years but with a couple additions we can surely compete in the next couple years with the addition of a couple great players. Tampa won the AL wild card because Boston tanked and NY is not a team on the up swing. Our time is now if we go out and add a solid bat and a solid starter...even though we didn't land Yu assuming our young talent marginally improves and we spend a few bucks or trade a few prospects we can win and win now but not without Bautista.

[gei]

Why would we trade the best pitcher in baseball for prospects when we expected to compete "in the next few years".

The thing is, we are always expected to compete in "the next few years", but we know it won't happen. Might as well give him a chance elsewhere.

[RINSE]

Why would we trade the best pitcher in baseball for prospects when we expected to compete "in the next few years".

The thing is, we are always expected to compete in "the next few years", but we know it won't happen. Might as well give him a chance elsewhere.

You must've forgot about the part where Roy was going to be a free agent, and that becoming a world series contender in 1 year was not feasible.

[gei]

Jose Bautista will also become a free agent in a few years. And us being a world series contender during that time is also not feasible with the way ownership is currently running the team.

Also our general theme these days seems to be shedding salary and trading established players for prospects - trading Bautista would fit right in with that.

[RINSE]

Jose Bautista will also become a free agent in a few years. And us being a world series contender during that time is also not feasible with the way ownership is currently running the team.

Also our general theme these days seems to be shedding salary and trading established players for prospects - trading Bautista would fit right in with that.

That's not the point, you were comparing two completely different situations.

[Skin Blues]

Halladay was traded with 1 year on his contract in 2009. It's now 2 years later, Bautista has 5 years left, and we're 2 years further along the "re-build". How you can compare the two... I'm not really sure. It's about as weak as the Wells/Fielder comparison. If it's not feasible that we can be contenders in the next 5 years, why even bother running the team at all? If they give up now, I'll probably abandon the team. We're not far off though, folks... although we're kind of hitting a crescendo. I honestly can't believe there are people suggesting we scrap plans to compete and continue to "re-build". Y'know, wait until the Red Sox recover and the Yankees reload on younger players when Jeter, Posada, et al move aside. And let the AL West fortify itself even more to further put us out of reach of a wild card spot in the coming years.

[UN-Owen]

Yes, I would look to sell high on Bautista, whose value is never going to be higher than it is now

Heyward and Teheran for Bautista would be the type of deal I'd be looking for

Maybe something with the Angels revolving around Mike Trout and their top pitching prospect

[Strav]

Can we wait till the offseason is over and see what moves AA makes before starting threads like these?

bingo. Offseason stretches out over many months.

[James_Raptors]

No player is untradeable in any sport. If you can convince a team to overspend (we sell very high) you at least listen to what the offfer are. Don't get me wrong, i'm not suggesting that we constantly rebuild, if teams out there are willing to grant our every wish with youth and/or great prospects. Eventually you need to make a bit of a stand, move forward and upward for your fans, etc.

I do think it's getting to the point where we may look back at Bautista and feel as though we missed the boat on this player's performance. And by that I mean, you either sell high on him or you build with him in mind (call it building around him, if that makes you sleep better at night). We're not quite there yet, but it's starting to feel like we're going to make a firm decision one way or another. We can't keep selling "next year" while he gets one year older. Eventually his performance will drop off as his age grows and if we're still waiting for "the core" to develop around him when that happens, then it'll be obvious that we/they made the wrong choice.

I feel like this upcoming year (365 days) is when you'll need to make the decision to either make a push and/or realize the core isn't exactly what you thought and wished it would be and depending on the answer you either have Jose in your line-up in 2013, or you've recieved a nice package in return (assuming his performance remains nearly the same in 2012).

[dagger]

Was looking at another Rosenthal article urging the Mariners to consider trading Felix Hernandez. Looking at the Matos trade, he says SEA could reap a great haul of top young talent from the likes of the Yankees, guys like Montero. Now Jose is five years older than Felix, but he's an everyday player in his prime, generally in good health, who can play 1B or DH when his outfield days are over. With his record of achievement, and especially with a contract that actually undervalues those achievements, you'd think we could get a nice haul of high-end prospects. So from a value perspective, it might make sense to deal him.

From a PR perspective, disaster.

The only type of trade that wouldn't send fans rushing to the exits would be to deal him for a primo player like Votto, where there is a possibility of spinning the age difference as a positive for a team that is otherwise a few years away from contending. In a Votto scenario, the Reds would also get a basically flatlined, predictable deal at an affordable price for a guy who would eat NL Central pitching alive.