2012 Jays Spring Training Discussion Thread

[LittleOzzy]

[Wo1verine]

Far, far too many game in ST.

[BobbyBoy]

when do the pitchers and catcher report?

[MGD24]

when do the pitchers and catcher report?

Feb 21st for the Jays

http://springtrainingonline.com/features/reporting-dates.htm


Also, Farrell sees the upcoming years rotation as;

Romero
Morrow
Cecil
Alvarez
McGowan or Laffey or Drabek

@JimBowdenESPNxm
John Farrell just told us @mlbnetworkradio that he views the Jays rotation as: Romero, Morrow, Cecil, Alvarez& then McGowan/DrabekorLaffey

https://twitter.com/#!/JimBowdenESPNxm

[Wo1verine]

It's pretty amazing on how they didn't add at least one starter.

[Wo1verine]

Pretty confident that our team heading back to Toronto (barring any injury's) will be -

SS Escobar
LF Thames
RF Bautista
1B Lind
3B Lawrie
CF Rasmus
DH Encarnaion
2B Johnson
C Arencibia

BENCH

C Mathis
UTIL Vizquel
OF Francisco
OF Davis

Romero
Morrow
Cecil
Alvarez
McGowan

Perez
Villanueva
Frasor
Janssen
Oliver
Cordero
Santos

[Michael Bradley]

The only way McGowan is not in the rotation is if he is hurt. Otherwise he is a lock. This is pretty much McGowan's last chance with the organization and even with his injury history the upside is too big to let go without trying.

[Wo1verine]

Indeed. But he shouldn't be, he needs to earn it and even if he doesn't, he'll be with the big club only because he's out of options.

[Al_Oliver]

Indeed. But he shouldn't be, he needs to earn it and even if he doesn't, he'll be with the big club only because he's out of options.

just like Thames needs to or he'll be in Vegas to start the year... because he has options

[Wo1verine]

Indeed. But he shouldn't be, he needs to earn it and even if he doesn't, he'll be with the big club only because he's out of options.

just like Thames needs to or he'll be in Vegas to start the year... because he has options

Yep.

[Kaizen]

So you would be fine with releasing McGowan and risking another Carpenter situation if somebody out-performed him in spring training? I am sorry but that seems really dumb to me.

[Wo1verine]

If he pitches poorly (not out-performed) vs lesser lineups in ST, he shouldn't be on the team. It wouldn't turn into a Carpenter situation, he's completely healthy.

[Michael Bradley]

If he pitches poorly (not out-performed) vs lesser lineups in ST, he shouldn't be on the team. It wouldn't turn into a Carpenter situation, he's completely healthy.

5 GS, 8.00 ERA, 18 IP, 26 H, 5 BB, 7 K

Those are Chris Carpenter's 2004 Spring Training numbers. He made the Cardinals rotation that year (his first year back after missing a year and a half) and proceeded to have these numbers in the regular season: 28 GS, 3.46 ERA, 182 IP, 169 H, 38 BB, 152 K. We all know what happened to his career from there.

Do I expect McGowan to turn into Carpenter or even half of what Carpenter became? Absolutely not. I have no clue how McGowan will perform or even if he stays healthy enough to pitch effectively again. However, a bad spring is not going to eliminate him from the 5th starter role. The Jays have invested too much time into letting him rehab to give up on him after a bad spring training (not to mention they paid him a guaranteed $1.5M over the last three seasons despite him pitching exactly five major league games over that span).

If McGowan is healthy, he is almost as much of a lock to make the rotation as Romero. The Jays are going to milk whatever value they can out of him until he forces them to make a change (whether due to ineffectiveness or injury).

[Wo1verine]

McGowan is indeed a LOCK to make the team, I agree! Just saying he shouldn't be. I think fans and perhaps management are a little worried about Dustin turning into another Carpenter when the chances of that happening are slim. Listen, If McGowan has an awful spring and a guy like Drabek has an fantastic one, i want Drabek coming back North not McGowan. I know almost everyone will disagree, and that's fine! Many love his comeback story.

[augustine]

Or, more likely, if Drabek and McGowan have good springs, but Cecil does not, I want Cecil back in AAA. (Same for Alvarez).

[satyr9]

Or, more likely, if Drabek and McGowan have good springs, but Cecil does not, I want Cecil back in AAA. (Same for Alvarez).

Well if Cecil shows some of the signs he did last ST and Drabek looks like he's moved on, that I could see, but I can't see Alvarez not making it. Based on some of the things AA has said about how he uses ST for evaluation, Alvarez might give himself a short hook in the bigs coming out of ST, but he's got almost no chance of starting in the minors IMO. Consider that for Alvarez, ST is probably going to be a little bumpy as they will undoubtedly be forcing him to throw secondary pitches he isn't comfortable with 'cause he needs at least a 3rd pitch and that's a good a time as any to try and break one in. Maybe maybe they see him being very close to getting his 3rd offering right and give him a week or two to work it out in extended, but with the lack of real depth I just don't see it happening.

Not all ST performances are equal. If they let Drabek just go out and throw to build up confidence and get used to pounding the zone, that'll be very different than if they've got Alvarez throwing 40% cutters or curves or whatever to try and learn a pitch. Obviously some of that can be discerned by us, but I'd say the rotation is pretty much set the way others have mentioned. I do think if Drabek looks confident and controlled, McGowan may end up on a conditioning stint of some kind, but I think they'll be selling Kyle early on that Dustin only has 80-100 IP in him this season if everything goes well and he's got a very extended spring training to get ready for 5th starter duties.

I do wonder what they're going to do with Litsch if he's not going to make the bullpen to start and looks like the odd man out because of options (BTW, how does Perez run out of options before Litsch? That system should've been overhauled last CBA IMO). Seems like he's more valuable as the 6th/7th starter (I consider Drabek & McGowan as the collective 5th for now) with Laffey in LV than as the 8th-10th 'pen arm. Still, they kind of have to permanently make up their mind with Litsch at this point IMO.

[BobbyBoy]

there is a lot of upside to this team. We won't need a middle of the order bat if Lind can return to his form in 2009. If Cecil can be the 15 game winner again and Morrow has a good year then maybe we need to look for a 4-5 starter and not a 1-3 starter. So IMO I think it was good that AA didn't go out and trade a Sh*t load of prospects for a middle of the order bat and/or a top 3 pitcher.

[Graham's Cracker]

Going to FLA this spring. Can't wait.

[Wo1verine]

Going to FLA this spring. Can't wait.

Cool take some pics for us

[BobbyBoy]

What will the jays do if everyone has a great spring training? Who are they gonna cut?