David Robinson: Defensive GOAT

[colts18]

I looked into Robinson's career, and the more I looked, the more I was impressed with his defense. Here is my case for him as the Defensive GOAT.

89: Year before Robinson; 21-61, -7.45 SRS, 107.9 D rating (+0.1 relative to League average), 13th
The Spurs had the All-defensive team Alvin Robertson who won the DPOY just a few years earlier

90: Robinson Rookie; 56-26 (+35 wins), 3.58 SRS (11.03 SRS turnaround, 2nd best in history), 104.2 D rating (-3.9 LA, 4.0 turnaround relative to LA), 3rd
Robinson’s stats: 96.8 D rating (2nd), 7.2 DWS (2nd), 3.9 Blks (3rd), 5th in WS/48

The Spurs lose all-defensive team Alvin Robertson. Add Robinson, Cummings and Elliot but only Robinson is the one with a defensive reputation. This is the biggest turnaround in NBA history at the time

91: 55-27, 4.30 SRS, 103.3 D rating (-4.6 LA), 1st
DRob: 95.9 D rating (2nd), 7.6 DWS (1st), 3.9 BLK (2nd), 2nd in WS/48

His first 1st place finish

92: 47-35, 2.81 SRS, 104.1 D rating (-4.1 LA), 1st , DPOY
DRob: 94.1 D rating (1st), 6.9 DWS (3rd , would finish 1st if he was healthy), 4.5 BLK (1st), 2nd in WS/48, 2.3 Steals per game (5th)

The 1st place D rating is amazing considering Robinson missed the last 14 games and playoffs. They finished 1st despite collapsing without him. This season might be Robinson’s best GOAT defensive case.

-68 G played: 102.6 D rating, 70.4 Dreb%, .512 TS%, +4.7 MOV
-14 G missed: 111.6 D rating (-9 D rating drop), 65.6 Dreb%, .534 TS% (2.2 TS% drop), -3.3 MOV (+8 with Robinson than without)
+9 D rating difference, -4.8 Dreb%, +2.2 TS%, +8 MOV
-Playoffs w/o Drob: 119.6 D rating, 63.2 Dreb%, .578 TS%, -9 MOV

As you can see, the team collapsed massively with almost all of it due to the team’s defense. The team went from -6.6 from the league average (this year’s Bulls level) with Robinson to being +3.4 from the league average which is 2nd to last. So Robinson was the difference between a dominant #1 finish and the 2nd worst defense in the league

93: 49-33, 2.21 SRS, 106.8 D rating (-1.2 LA), 10th
DRob: 99.9 D rating (6th), 6.4 DWS (3rd), 3.2 BLK (5th), 6th in WS/48

Little bit of a down year but they had 3 coaches this season.

94: 55-27, 5.05 SRS, 104.6 D rating (-1.7 LA), 9th
DRob: 98 D rating (8th), 6.7 DWS (4th), 3.3 BLK (3rd), 1st in WS/48

95: 62-20, 5.90 SRS, 105.4 D rating (-2.9 LA), 5th
DRob: 98.6 D rating (3rd), 6.7 DWS (1st), 3.2 BLK (4th), 134 Steals (10th), 1st in WS/48

96: 59-23, 5.97 SRS, 103.5 D rating (-4.1 LA), 3rd
DRob: 96.5 D rating (1st), 7.2 DWS (1st), 3.3 BLK (5th), 2nd in WS/48

Caps off great 3 year peak

1997: 20-62 (39 win drop), -7.93 SRS (13.91 SRS drop), 112.3 D rating (+5.8 LA), 29th (last)
This is one of the biggest declines in NBA history. The team dropped 9.9 D rating points relative to the league. Robinson played only 6 games and 24.5 MPG, but when he played he did show an impact defensively.

With Robinson 6 games: -0.38 SRS
w/o Robinson 76 games: -8.52 SRS
8.14 SRS difference

Defense:
With Robinson: 109.5 D rating, .542 TS%
W/O Robinson: 112.5 D rating, .555 TS%

1998: 56-26 (36 wins turnaround), 3.30 SRS (11.23 SRS turnaround), 99.4 D rating (-5.6 LA) (+12.9 D rating turnaround), 2nd
DRob: 93.6 D rating, 6.0 DWS (2nd), 2.6 BLK (5th), 1st in WS/48

Robinson engineers arguably the greatest Defensive turnaround in NBA history. The Spurs go from 3rd to last, to 2nd in D rating. A 13 D rating impact is absolutely ridiculous. That’s like the difference between the best defense and the Raptors. Robinson’s defense gets even better after his injury. Robinson missed 9 games and his impact did show.

With Robinson: 98.8 D rating, .480 TS%, 4.37 MOV
W/O Robinson: 103.9 D rating, .509 TS%, 0.89 MOV
Difference: +5.1 D rating, +2.9 TS%, +3.48 MOV

1999: 37-13, 7.12 SRS, 95 D rating (-7.2 LA), 1st
DRob: 87.9 D rating (1st), 4.4 DWS (2nd), 2.4 BLK (9th), 1st in WS/48

Robinson’s ridiculous D rating that season is 3rd best in NBA history behind Ben Wallace and Elvin Hayes. This is one of the best defenses in history and Robinson is the architect of it.

2000: 53-29, 5.92 SRS, 98.6 D rating (-5.5 LA), 2nd
DRob: 92.2 D Rating (1st), 6.4 DWS (2nd), 2.3 BLK (6th), 3rd in WS/48

Duncan misses the playoffs this season and the Spurs finish with the best D rating in the playoffs with a 91.4 (-12.8 Playoff average).

2001: 58-24, 7.92 SRS, 98.0 D rating (-5.0 LA), 1st
DRob: 92.1 D rating (2nd), 5.7 DWS (4th), 2.5 BLK (8th), 2nd in WS/48

2002: 58-24, 6.27 SRS, 99.7 D rating (-4.7 LA), 2nd
DRob: 94.9 D rating (2nd), 5.1 DWS (7th), 1.8 BLK

2003: 60-22, 5.65 SRS, 99.7 D rating (-3.9 LA), 2nd
DRob: 94.9 D rating (3rd), 3.6 DWS, 1.7 BLK

The Spurs allow a ridiculous 84 points per 48 minutes this season when Robinson is on the court.

Career: 95.7 D rating (5th all-time), 80.1 DWS (10th), 3.0 BLK (4th). For his career, Robinson played on average for the # 3.2 Defense. He's played for 10 top 3 defenses in 13 seasons, 8 top 2 defenses, and 3 top 1 defenses.


Playoffs:
Robinson gets a bad rap for his playoff performances, but he has had a few pretty good defensive playoffs despite a few clunkers (ex: 95 vs Hakeem)

90: 106.1 D rating (-3.1 playoff LA)
DRob: 100.2 D rating (3rd), 4.8 BLK (2nd )

91:
DRob: 3.8 BLK (1st), 31.3 Dreb% (1st),

92: Spurs collapse without Robinson as I outlined above.

93: 107.0 D rating (-0.9 LA)
DRob: 100.8 D rating (4th), 3.6 BLK (2nd), 25.4 Dreb% (3rd)

94:
DRob: 2.5 BLK (4th)

95: 103.1 D rating (-7.5 LA), 2nd
DRob: 97.5 D rating (1st), 2.6 BLK (4th), 1.6 DWS (1st)

David Robinson and the Spurs get bashed so much based on this playoff series but the Spurs actually played elite defense and Robinson did too (1st in D rating)

96:
DRob: 2.5 BLK (2nd)

98: 101.4 D rating (-4.2), 2nd
DRob: 93.4 D rating (1st), 3.3 BLK (1st), 27.2 DReb% (4th)

99: 95.1 D rating (-6.7 LA), 1st
DRob: 87.3 D rating (1st), 1.7 DWS (1st)

Arguably the best postseason defense of all-time and Robinson’s 87.3 D rating is 2nd best in NBA history behind Ben Wallace’s masterful 2004 playoffs.

00: 91.4 D rating (-12.8 LA),1st
DRob: 84 D rating (1st), 3.0 BLK (2nd), 24.5 DReb% (4th)

Robinson’s D rating would have been the best in playoff history if he had enough games to qualify. It’s the best D rating in NBA history for anyone who played 150 minutes or more in a playoff.

01: 102.6 D rating (-1.9 LA), 6th
DRob: 92.4 D rating (1st), 2.4 BLK (5th), 28.7 DReb% (1st)

Another 1st place D rating finish for Robinson

02: 102.7 D rating (-0.6 LA), 8th
The Spurs finish mediocrely most likely due to the fact that Robinson only played in 4 playoff games, but Robinson did have a nice 97 D rating

03: 97.7 D rating (-7.4 LA), 1st
DRob: 93.8 D rating (3rd), 31 blocks (5th)

This is another case for best postseason defense in history.

For Robinson’s playoff career he has a 96.2 D rating (8th) and is 13th in DWS. He has 5 1st place D rating finishes (NBA record), 7 top 4’s, 9 top 10’s.

[colts18]

Here is more on Robinson's individual defense:

vs. Hakeem, 32 games:
Robinson: 21.8 PPG, 47.8 FG%, .545 TS%, 11.9 Reb, 3.3 AST, 5.72 STL/BLK
Olajuwon: 24.4 PPG, 44.9 FG%, .498 TS%, 12.1 Reb, 3.3 AST, 5.50 STL/BLK


Performance away from 90-96 average:
Robinson: -3.8 PPG, -4.8 FG%, -4.7 TS%, +0.1 Reb, +0.2 AST
Olajuwon: -0.8 PPG, -6.6 FG%, -6.1 TS%, -0.2 Reb, +0.2 AST

vs. Ewing, 13 games:
DRob: 25.8 PPG, 53.2 FG%, .576 TS%, 9.9 Reb, 3.2 AST, 5.00 STL/BLK
Ewing: 22.4 PPG, 43.3 FG%, .463 TS%, 11.1 Reb, 2.9 AST, 4.23 STL/BLK

Performance away from 90-96 average:
DRob: +0.2 PPG, +0.6 FG%, -1.8 TS%, -1.9 Reb, +0.1 AST
Ewing: -2.5 PPG, -7.6 FG%, -9.4 TS%, -0.1 Reb, +0.6 AST

During this period, Shaq's PPG dropped 1.9 PPG, FG% dropped 7.0%, TS% dropped by -4.7 TS%.

So if you look at the average drop for those 3 players, it's -1.7 PPG, -7.1 FG%, and -6.7 TS%. I think it's safe to say that Prime Robinson might not only be the best Shaq stopper, but the best man defensive big men ever.

Here is more on Robinson vs. Shaq. This is a 93-01 analysis based on Shaq's expected output:

Shaq's numbers Regular season:
Expected: 25.5 PPG, 57.8 FG%
Actual: 24.2 PPG, 55.3 FG%

Shaq's numbers playoffs:
Expected: 25.4 PPG, 57.4 FG%
Actual: 23.4 PPG, 51.2 FG%

In the postseason, Shaq's FG% dropped 6.2%, and 2.0 PPG vs Robinson. In the regular season it was 1.3 PPG drop and 2.5 FG% drop. In the 2003 playoffs after Robinson's prime, Shaq's numbers dropped 1.3 PPG and 1.5 FG%. In 2002, Robinson was injured in a few games, but in the games he did play, Shaq dropped 7.6 PPG and 11.5 FG%. So we can probably say that Robinson is the best Shaq defender ever. In the regular season he held Shaq 4.6 FG% below his career average and 4.0 FG% from his career playoff average.

[Jordan23Forever]

I knew about his team defensive impact, but didn't know the full extent and effectiveness of his individual defense against other great centers. Thanks for the informative post. Apparently DRob was a defensive beast both team-wise and individually.

[tsherkin]

Robinson was an absolute monster on defense. And it carried through into the PS, even when his offensive efficacy and volume did not. He was a remarkable defender.

[tsherkin]

So we can probably say that Robinson is the best Shaq defender ever.

Too bad there aren't more 7'1, hyper-athletic and coordinated centers out there.

His physical tools were INSANE.

[JordansBulls]

Robinson was an absolute monster on defense. And it carried through into the PS, even when his offensive efficacy and volume did not. He was a remarkable defender.

Well he was great on defense, but when this happens to you head to head in a series
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... 5_WCF.html
That will hurt your status a bit. Hakeem 35 ppg in that series on him.

[tsherkin]

Robinson was an absolute monster on defense. And it carried through into the PS, even when his offensive efficacy and volume did not. He was a remarkable defender.

Well he was great on defense, but when this happens to you head to head in a series
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... 5_WCF.html
That will hurt your status a bit. Hakeem 35 ppg in that series on him.

I watched that series as it happened, I won't ever forget. Individual D can only do so much against a player THAT complete, however. Particulalrly when you receive your MVP beforehand, lol.

[mysticbb]

A couple of quick notes: Cummings seems to be very underrated. The guy played on the best defensive team of the 80's. Look at the drop in overall performance and defense of the Bucks with and without Cummings and everyone should acknowledge that nearly half of the improvement in 1989-90 can be attributed to Cummings. In 1991 and 1992 Cummings missed overall 27 games. The Spurs with Cummings were 4.5 SRS team, without him -1.0 SRS. The Spurs at that time were also better in terms of depth at forward than at center. When Robinson missed the games, they replaced him by playing Carr out of position.
And it easy to point out the defense without Robinson in the playoffs when the Spurs had to play the Suns, one of the better offensive teams in the league.

The numbers in 1997/98 are misleading, because the Spurs played actually stronger offensive teams during those 9 games. The Spurs had a 1.26 SRS in games without Robinson, while 3.54 SRS with Robinson. The defense without Robinson played actually 3 points better than average expectations given the opponents, while they played 6 points better with Robinson.

Robinson is a great defender, no doubt, but I would not attribute all those differences of the Spurs to Robinson alone, but also to teammates and circumstances.

[magicman1978]

Let me preface this by saying that I have not watched the series again since I saw it live. At the time, I felt like Bob Hill's defensive strategy against Hakeem was very poor. Most of the times it seemed to me like, they would do a soft double on Hakeem after he already makes his initial move - which is too late. I see highlights all the time of moves Hakeem put on Robinson. Where's the help defense in these highlights?

[bastillon]

excellent post though I think that should be also brought up:

What about a contemporary of Hakeem though, that isn't considered to have great defensive help or coaching, David Robinson? He anchored better defenses than Hakeem did.

And Duncan's anchored elite defenses year after year, sometimes without great defensive help (although he's always had a great coach in Popovich, true).

I get what you're saying, that no one guy can really guarantee an elite defense, but it seems that Duncan and Robinson did that moreso than Hakeem did. They didn't have great defensive players around them at times either, but their defenses were better.

I might be looking at this too much from a team angle though, and not enough from an individual one.

I think you overlooked several factors. coaching is extremely important from the standpoint of team defense. you think OKC would have #20 defense in the league with Pat Riley or Phil Jackson ? Popovich is THE coach when talking about defense. he was one of the first to acknowledge the importance of sacrificing midrange defense for paint defense (Spurs D always gave up the most midrange 2s in the league), he was a guy who discovered Bowen, who made Tony Parker into a reasonably good team defender etc.

Larry Brown is another guy who comes to mind as all-time great defensive coach. recently I've come to realization that coach of that caliber can be nearly as effective as defensive anchor. if you look at Larry's history you'll notice teams always played great D. just looking at the 90s Spurs... they were tanking in 89 but still played avg defense. then added D-Rob and Cummings in 90, their defense improved to 3rd in the league. then 1st in 91, 1st in 92, but only one top3 finish in 93-96. so what happened in 93 ? Larry Brown left the team. Spurs defense was still great but clearly fell level below... and that's despite Rodman on the team in 94-95. at the time Larry Brown became Clippers coach and they also became much better defense. then he became Pacers head coach and they went from being one of the worst defensive teams in the league, to one of the best defenses in the league. meanwhile Clippers fell off a cliff after Brown left the team. then he became Philly's head coach and they also went on to produce top5 defenses year in year out. and we already know what happened in 04-05... best defensive team ever.

so comparing D-Rob's record without Larry to Hakeem's record... pretty close. always top10 defense, but never the best in the league. 10th in 93, 9th in 94, 5th in 95, 3rd in 96. that doesn't really seperate Robinson from Olajuwon at all. pretty much the only time Olajuwon didn't anchor top5 defense was in 92 and Rockets defense without Hakeem gave up like 10 pts more per game.

give Hakeem all time great defensive coach and reasonably good defensive personnel and you'll see him anchor dominant defenses too.

as well as this:

Admiral vs. Dream on Defense

I'm too young to have seen them play at their primes but it seems like everyone chooses Dream over Admiral on D as well. I understand that Hakeem roasted Robinson in the WCF and that that was a legacy making series that in some ways defined both their careers. I understand that Hakeem's complete offensive repertoire, while less efficient than D-Rob's attacking and jumpshooting style, translated better in the slowed down tougher playoffs environment.

But was Hakeem really the better defender? What exactly was the difference between the two as defenders? From 90-95 when they both played in the league and were roughly at their defensive primes, these are the numbers they posted...

Code: Select all

HO: 12.6 RPG, 4.0 BPG, 1.9 SPG, 3.7 PFG, 6.4 BLK%, 2.4 STL%, 41.6 DWS
DR: 11.7 RPG, 3.7 BPG, 1.7 SPG, 3.0 PFG, 6.0 BLK%, 2.3 STL%, 41.5 DWS

Both of them were anchoring great defenses during this time as well, with the Spurs posting a 104.7 DRtg (2nd in the league) and Rockets posting a 104.9 DRtg (3rd) over this span. I really don't see much of a difference at all here based on the team results and individual numbers.

Actually the biggest thing I see is that while Hakeem was slightly more active in terms of creating turnovers, he was more foul prone as well. 3.7 PF vs. 3.0 PF seems to be the only significant difference.

5.9 S+B/3.7 PF
5.4 S+B/3.0 PF

Hakeem definitely got into more foul trouble than Robinson. Why was this? Did the Admiral’s superior run and jump ability help him in this regard vs. Hakeem?

Also for those who watched them play, was Hakeem really a better low post man defender? I know both of these guys were good but it seems like people treat it as a fact that Hakeem was the superior man defender. They don’t even give examples and explanations, “Hakeem was the better man defender” is all they say without further comments.

From the videos I’ve watched it does appear that Hakeem had the stronger base, and his body is clearly wider than Robinson’s (clearly seen when they match up). And his longer arms do seem to make up for the slight height disadvantage vs. Robinson.

But was Hakeem really a better overall defender? Both of them anchored similarly dominant defenses, both of them posted eerily similar defensive numbers, both of them won DPOY’s and were recognized as tremendous defenders. So what gives? Why is Hakeem considered the better defender than Robinson by 90% of this board? I 100% agree that Hakeem was the better player because I prefer his offensive style, but I really can’t find a discernable difference in their defense. So can someone who watched them both play on D and has something to say other than “trust me” tell me why Hakeem was a better defender than Robinson?

I think Dream was a better overall defender although they're on the same platform. I'll quote a post where I broke down Dream's defense that you might be interested in.

Hakeem is most likely the greatest defender I've seen (1990/91-present).

Taking accomplishments into account, he has 2 Defensive Player of the Year awards and should've probably won more in retrospect. I don't see how one can make a great case for Rodman's selection in 1990. Yes, Rodman was a better man defender than Hakeem when locked in but he doesn't come close to providing the overall impact Dream did. Not to mention, Rodman was only playing 29.0 minutes per game compared to Hakeem's 38.3 which suggests that Dream was having more impact just by the virtue of staying in the game longer.

Now that statistics like DRtg are available, we can analyze and measure the impact these two had. Detroit, despite having better defenders around Rodman, posted a lower DRtg than Houston. Dream had the Rockets as #1 in the league and was far and away the best defensive player on the team. Buck Johnson was solid; great man defender but he couldn't dream (no pun intended) of matching Dream's impact. I don't use numbers to measure a player's defender but Hakeem's numbers that year (14.0 rpg/2.1 spg/4.6 bpg) make a good case in my book. He also finished runner up in Defensive Player of the Year voting in 1989 (would've won by one more vote) and 1990. Made 5 all-defensive first teams in his career, 9 in total.

As for his defense, I can mostly comment on post-1990 but he seemed to have some flaws early on in his career. He was a bit too aggressive which led to gambling, went for pumpfakes a bit too much and didn't seem as strong as he did in the early 1990s which is when he started lifting weight from what I remember. I think his defense peaked in the early 1990s around the time he won his first DPOY award. Around that time, he had significantly toned down his aggression, decreased the gambling and didn't get into foul trouble as much. Man defense was also great which is evident in the 1993 series with Seattle and the 1994 finals with New York.

He shut down the interior along with setting a record for blocked shots in a seven game series in the 1993 Western Conference Semi-finals. Dream also shut down Kemp limiting his penetration a bit and swatted away anything around the rim. Great help defense in this series. 1994 finals, he held Patrick Ewing to 36% shooting from the field. Did this by pushing him away from the basket and make him shoot turnaround jumpshots. His relatively low rebounding numbers are explained by him battling with Patrick outside the paint. Otis Thorpe picked up the slack in Dream's absence.

I would put guys like David Robinson, Kevin Garnett and Tim Duncan on his level but would hesitate taking any of them before the Dream. Mostly because Admiral, while a great weakside shot blocker and interior defender, wasn't as good as a man defender. I also want to know how much of that great early 1990s Spurs defense is influenced by Larry Brown's defensive schemes and Admiral's defense. No doubt Admiral was a terrific defender and rightfully won a DPOY award but the Spurs DRtg took a hit in the 1992-93 season (first full year without LB) and this was with Admiral playing all 82 games. Their DRtg in 1994, 1995 and 1996 isn't as good, relative to league average, either. By no means am I implying Robinson didn't have a huge impact and he did because the Spurs were horrible without him when he went down late in the 1991-92 season but it does generate some food for thought.

Dream has a greater impact than Duncan on the defensive end due to his major edge in athleticism which is something Mario Elie commented on when comparing the two players. Garnett is a very good defender and better on the defensive glass but he doesn't have Dream's overall impact due to Dream being a greater paint defender and shot blocking threat. It's all subjective, though.

To give more examples of Hakeem's jaw-dropping defense, I'd point to the 1986 finals like bastillon mentioned. Parish couldn't manage anything against him. One thing I didn't talk about was his versatility as a defender. His determination in running the floor, protecting the basket and not giving up on any play. You should check out that chasedown block (all the way from halfcourt) he had on Rod Strickland in the 1994 playoffs. Just mind-boggling quickness and recovery time. He also had one on K.J. with K.J. falling flat on his arse. I've seen him guard power forwards as well. For reference, see his stellar defense on Karl Malone in game 4 of the 1994 Western Conference Semi finals. Otis Thorpe was in foul trouble and Dream got the job of checking Malone in the second half if I'm not mistaken. He shut Karl down and helped the Rockets take a big lead. It's the infamous game where the Utah time keeper doesn't start the clock. He also checked Barkley for stretches in the 1994 and 1995 conference semis and held his own. The thing about his defense was that he didn't let anyone get anything going inside. I remember being astonished at how Cedric Ceballos, the snake (great nose for the ball, terrific rebounder), couldn't finish around the basket because of Dream's presence. Most of the points he got that series were with Hakeem coming over to help on penetration. We had to take him out of games 6 and 7 and start AC Green although some of it had to do with the defensive mismatches we had (Thorpe posting up Chuck, Dream beasting etc).

I remember the start of the 1994-95 season. Rockets got off to a 9-0 start with Hakeem being a strong MVP candidate. There was a game against the Pacers where Dream absolutely annihilated Rik Smits by holding him to 1/11 shooting while putting up a 43 pts/16 reb/8 blks statline. Couple of games later, he took a dump on the Nets with 31 pts/10 reb/5 stl/5 blk and holding Derrick Coleman (back when he actually gave a F) to 1/15 from the field.

Just incredible all-around play. As for Admiral's defense, it was great but a couple of things stick out. How much of the early 1990s Spurs DRtg is influenced by Larry Brown's defensive schemes? And Hakeem having the series of his career against Robinson kind of sticks out here. I thought he could be taken one-on-one. He didn't seem as psychologically dominating/intimidating either, contrary to what his numbers imply. I'd point to the 1994 playoffs, here. Karl Malone had a greater impact on both offense and defense. I don't remember this series very well but I do remember the Jazz switching match ups by putting Karl on David and roughing him up. It proved to be successful as David was held to 41% shooting. Karl, meanwhile, beasted in the series with the Rodman/Robinson duo being unable to stop him. I'm not sure how much Robinson guarded Karl but it's a negative either way. Either he didn't step up to the challenge and guard Karl or he was unable to keep Malone from going off.

That said, I do think Robinson gets underrated due to his playoff failures. He was a great player; terrific on defense (weakside shot blocking, help defense, versatility). There's a game where he had 8 blks against MJ and the Bulls and along with Hakeem, he was the best center at getting those chasedown blocks.

Man defense seems to be the reason why people rate Hakeem above Robinson on defense. I don’t know if this is the truth or a copout response that is used because it’s hard to prove one way or the other. So I tried my best to answer my own question here.

From 1990-95 these were the top 8 scoring Centers in the NBA who played more than 200 games during this span (Shaq, Robinson, Ewing, Hakeem, Alonzo, Daugherty, Seikaly, and Smits). These are some of their offensive numbers…

Code: Select all

SO: 27.3 PPG, .583 FG%, 3.0 TOV, 38.2 MPG
DR: 25.7 PPG, .527 FG%, 3.0 TOV, 38.3 MPG
PE: 25.3 PPG, .515 FG%, 3.2 TOV, 37.8 MPG
HO: 24.9 PPG, .515 FG%, 3.3 TOV, 38.9 MPG
AM: 21.3 PPG, .512 FG%, 3.1 TOV, 35.4 MPG
BD: 19.9 PPG, .535 FG%, 2.5 TOV, 37.2 MPG
SE: 15.9 PPG, .490 FG%, 2.9 TOV, 33.5 MPG (Seikaly)
SM: 14.7 PPG, .514 FG%, 1.8 TOV, 26.5 MPG (Smits)

These were the NBA Centers who played big minutes and were bigtime scoring options for their teams during 1990-95. So I took a look at both Hakeem and Robinson’s h2h numbers against these players during 90-95 to see how much they limited them.

Vs. Admiral / Vs. Dream
SO: 25.2 PPG -- .513 FG% -- 4.0 TOV -- 38.3 MPG (6 G)
SO: 20.7 PPG -- .557 FG% -- 2.8 TOV -- 40.3 MPG (6 G)
PE: 23.0 PPG -- .456 FG% -- 3.9 TOV -- 38.1 MPG (11 G)
PE: 24.1 PPG -- .441 FG% -- 3.1 TOV -- 38.6 MPG (12 G)
AM: 18.7 PPG -- .463 FG% -- 2.7 TOV -- 34.2 MPG (6 G)
AM: 15.0 PPG -- .464 FG% -- 4.6 TOV -- 36.2 MPG (5 G)
BD: 19.2 PPG -- .566 FG% -- 3.0 TOV -- 33.5 MPG (6 G)
BD: 14.4 PPG -- .509 FG% -- 1.8 TOV -- 34.2 MPG (5 G)
SE: 17.7 PPG -- .489 FG% -- 2.3 TOV -- 33.9 MPG (10 G)
SE: 13.3 PPG -- .487 FG% -- 3.7 TOV -- 33.4 MPG (11 G)
SM: 13.5 PPG -- .493 FG% -- 1.3 TOV -- 26.0 MPG (12 G)
SM: 10.7 PPG -- .516 FG% -- 2.0 TOV -- 23.1 MPG (10 G)

So what do you guys think about those numbers? Obviously this isn’t a perfect method as this doesn’t account for a whole bunch of things. There’s no such thing as one on one in the NBA, so any stats in an individual head to head matchup should be taken with a grain of salt. But if there is one position in the NBA where h2h stats have the most to do with individual play, it would be the Center position. We know that Hakeem and D-Rob guarded Centers 90% of the time, and we know that they were good enough to guard them in single coverage pretty much all the time as well (outside of Shaq and each other at times). So I think it is reasonable to assume that the numbers these opposing big men posted were primarily when they were being defended by Dream and Admiral. On to the actual results…

Looking at these numbers from these opposing bigs, the one thing that does jump out at you is the PPG they averaged. Outside of Ewing, every other big scored way less against Hakeem than they did Robinson. The FG%, TOV’s, and MP are roughly identical but Hakeem seems to have definitely had a greater impact on volume scoring than Robinson did. Could this be because of better general team defense, or did Hakeem just make it harder to get good looks inside? Despite D-Rob’s cartoon-like upper body, Hakeem did have the greater base strength based on his wider body and stronger legs, maybe this allowed him to keep the deep low post position easier than Robinson. No matter what the reason was, it’s a fact that opposing volume scoring centers found it easier to score in volume against Robinson. Here are the total numbers of these guys vs. Robinson and Hakeem without taking into account the individual games played (for example Shaq’s 6 G count the same as Ewing’s 11). And the total numbers of these 6 players vs. the entire league using the same method…

Vs. Admiral / Vs. Dream / Vs. NBA
20.7 PPG, .525 FG%, 2.8 TOV, 34.8 MPG
19.6 PPG, .497 FG%, 2.9 TOV, 34.0 MPG
16.4 PPG .496 FG%, 3.0 TOV, 34.3 MPG

So while these numbers suggest that Hakeem was a better man defender, it also suggests that the Admiral wasn’t far off. Sure the difference in volume scoring is notable, but Robinson held opponents to the same FG% and forced them into the same amount of turnovers. And like I mentioned above, he held Hakeem to a low FG% in h2h matchups as well. So I think it’s pretty obvious that Robinson was at the very least a very good individual man defender. But I think based on these stats and the video I’ve seen, Hakeem’s man defense was slightly better. And I think this also gives Hakeem the edge when it comes to who the better overall defender was.

[lorak]

A couple of quick notes: Cummings seems to be very underrated. The guy played on the best defensive team of the 80's. Look at the drop in overall performance and defense of the Bucks with and without Cummings

Bucks defense in 1990 was worse because of Moncrief and Pressey, not because Cummings played in San Antonio.

and everyone should acknowledge that nearly half of the improvement in 1989-90 can be attributed to Cummings. In 1991 and 1992 Cummings missed overall 27 games. The Spurs with Cummings were 4.5 SRS team, without him -1.0 SRS.

in 1991 (15 games) Spurs defense was worse without him by 1.5 drtg.
in 1992 (12 games) Spurs defense was better without him by 4.4 drtg

So no, we can't say he was responsible for nearly half Spurs improvement on D (and this thread is about defense, not overall performance!).

The Spurs had a 1.26 SRS in games without Robinson, while 3.54 SRS with Robinson.

How you calculate SRS?

[bastillon]

I wanna ask though, how are we going to account for the fact that Spurs were tanking on purpose in '97 ? kind of obvious their defense would suck.

as for Alvin, I think he's the weakest DPOY ever. he won the award playing on one of the weakest defensive teams in the league.

[tsherkin]

I wanna ask though, how are we going to account for the fact that Spurs were tanking on purpose in '97 ? kind of obvious their defense would suck.

as for Alvin, I think he's the weakest DPOY ever. he won the award playing on one of the weakest defensive teams in the league.

Right up there with Deke winning from the All-Defensive 2nd Team?

[bastillon]

Deke is 7'2 C master shotblocker with strong defensive rebounding. Alvin is a brute guard who scared every perimeter player in the league and avged lots of steals. not really close

[tsherkin]

Deke is 7'2 C master shotblocker with strong defensive rebounding. Alvin is a brute guard who scared every perimeter player in the league and avged lots of steals. not really close

Let me say that again:

From the All-Defensive 2nd Team.



I realize Alvin was worse compared to his own peers, compared to the dominant bigs, etc, etc. He was a terrible choice. But eff sakes, man, the voting in that year had D-Rob ahead of him on the All-Defensive Team and still turned around and gave it to Mutombo.

[bastillon]

I think Pippen should've been DPOY that year. anchored #2 defense in the league without any noted defensive talent on the roster. but at least Mutombo has a case against both Robinson and Pippen. he was a great shotblocker (4 blk, 7.5 blk%) while grabbing 26% DRB. now make a case for Alvin being a better defender than Eaton or Olajuwon in 87.

[JordansBulls]

Robinson was an absolute monster on defense. And it carried through into the PS, even when his offensive efficacy and volume did not. He was a remarkable defender.

Well he was great on defense, but when this happens to you head to head in a series
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... 5_WCF.html
That will hurt your status a bit. Hakeem 35 ppg in that series on him.

I watched that series as it happened, I won't ever forget. Individual D can only do so much against a player THAT complete, however. Particulalrly when you receive your MVP beforehand, lol.

Well here is game 2 I put up
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aZN9OaDRFf8&feature=youtube_gdata_player[/youtube]

[mysticbb]

Bucks defense in 1990 was worse because of Moncrief and Pressey, not because Cummings played in San Antonio.

Yeah, check out how the Bucks played without Moncrief and Pressey in 1989, you might want to change that statement. ;)

in 1991 (15 games) Spurs defense was worse without him by 1.5 drtg.
in 1992 (12 games) Spurs defense was better without him by 4.4 drtg

Adjusting for the opponents offensive strength, the Spurs played 3 points worse in 1991 and 3 points better in 1992. Well, now we exclude the last 14 games from that sample in 1992 in which Robinson wasn't there and ... ;)

Yeah, the Spurs did not have a good backup for their center position, they used Carr for that, a guy who started next to Robinson as PF a couple of games.

So no, we can't say he was responsible for nearly half Spurs improvement on D (and this thread is about defense, not overall performance!).

Actually, we can say that. Cummings replaced weak defenders and brought a clear positive impact on the defensive end.

How you calculate SRS?

MOV+SOS

[mysticbb]

I think Pippen should've been DPOY that year. anchored #2 defense in the league without any noted defensive talent on the roster.

Haha, yeah, the Bulls lucked out to play better defense in those 10 games than expected, because they had no "noted defensive talent" on the roster. Seriously, it is getting insane here. The Bulls were a really good defensive team without Pippen, maybe you should accept that fact before making such claims. No, Pippen was NOT the DPOY in 1994.

[bastillon]

how do you calculate SOS then ?

PS.

Paul Pressey 1989
in 109.9 / 104.3 (62g)
out 105.8 / 108.5 (20g)

in +5.6
out -2.7

that's +8.3 to 5.6
he played 5 games off the bench which I didn't count. he was probably at half speed anyway. I don't even know which games those were etc.