2012 NBA Draft Lottery

fishercob · Post #1 » by **fishercob** » Mon Apr 16, 2012 1:13 pm

With the tank watch all but over, we can now focus on what could end up being the biggest night in franchise history.

The lottery will be held on May 30 -- in NYC this year and not in Secaucus.

With the Wizards all but locked in to the second worst record, the Wizards' odds will break out as follows:

19.9% chance at #1 pick
18.8% chance at #2 pick (38.7% chance of picking 1 or 2)
17.1% chance at #3 pick (55.8% chance of picking top 3)
31.9% chance at #4 pick (87.7% chance of pick top 4)
12.3% chance at #5 pick (44.2% chance of picking 4th or 5th)

While Davis is clearly the franchise-changing prize, I realize that there are 801 ping pong ball combinations out of 1000 that mean we don't get him. Those are very tall odds. That said, there are 877 combinations that get us one of Davis, MKG, Beal or RObinson. So while we might not come away with a surefire star, we have a strong chance of coming away with a solid building block of a player. We can debate who that should be in the draft thread.

With the way the odds break out for the teams around us, as well as those teams' needs -- I guess today (knowing what we know -- pre lotto) that Bradley Beal ends up being our pick. Our most likely scenario has us dropping to 4th; Cleveland, Utah and Golden State are the only other lotto teams that I would expect to take Beal in the top 3 today, and only the Cavs have a chance that would be classified as more than rounding error.

Post #2 » by **Rafael122** » Mon Apr 16, 2012 1:56 pm

May 30th is the NBA Draft lottery. I have no idea why the NBA waits so long to hold it. NHL held it about 4 days after the season ended. That's the way it should be here, it doesn't take away from the playoffs.

fishercob · Post #3 » by **fishercob** » Mon Apr 16, 2012 1:57 pm

Thanks Raf. I'll edit my OP.

closg00 · Post #4 » by **closg00** » Mon Apr 16, 2012 2:13 pm

Sports writers are probably just re-hashing what Chad Ford wrote, but now I've read in a couple of places about the Wizards supposed interest in Drummond @ #2.

Post #5 » by **nate33** » Mon Apr 16, 2012 3:11 pm

fishercob wrote:That said, there are 877 combinations that get us one of Davis, MKG, Beal or RObinson. So while we might not come away with a surefire star, we have a strong chance of coming away with a solid building block of a player. We can debate who that should be in the draft thread

I figure even if we fall to #5, there's going to be a team in slot 2, 3 or 4 who selects Drummond. That'll leave one of our 3 targets on the board at #5.

Post #6 » by **nate33** » Mon Apr 16, 2012 3:12 pm

closg00 wrote:Sports writers are probably just re-hashing what Chad Ford wrote, but now I've read in a couple of places about the Wizards supposed interest in Drummond @ #2.

We're not taking Drummond.

truwizfan4evr · Post #7 » by **truwizfan4evr** » Mon Apr 16, 2012 3:18 pm

I Thought the worst record has a 25 % chance of winning it and the second worst was a 19 % chance?

Post #8 » by **miller31time** » Mon Apr 16, 2012 4:03 pm

truwizfan4evr wrote:I Thought the worst record has a 25 % chance of winning it and the second worst was a 19 % chance?

The percentages fishercob posted are the Wizards' chances at selecting the 1st overall pick with the understanding we will have the 2nd-worst record after the season is over.

You're correct that Charlotte will have a 25% chance at winning it.

Post #9 » by **Rafael122** » Mon Apr 16, 2012 4:08 pm

I doubt Charlotte will win it. I'm gonna guess Portland or New Orleans. Funny, I read about how Stern said "you're one player away!" the day the Hornets got sold to Tom Benson. Um...

truwizfan4evr · Post #10 » by **truwizfan4evr** » Mon Apr 16, 2012 4:29 pm

Rafael122 wrote:I doubt Charlotte will win it. I'm gonna guess Portland or New Orleans. Funny, I read about how Stern said "you're one player away!" the day the Hornets got sold to Tom Benson. Um...

I hope your wrong and a miracle happens that the Washington wizards win it.

fishercob · Post #11 » by **fishercob** » Mon Apr 16, 2012 7:11 pm

For the record, I dismiss any notion that the lottery could possibly be fixed. Back in 1984? I dunno, maybe. Now? No way. The league would expose itself to billion dollar lawsuits from defrauded franchises, owners, cities, etc. There's just no way the lottery is fixed -- especially with this ping pong ball system. They're not pulling envelopes out of a drum anymore.

7-Day Dray · Post #12 » by **7-Day Dray** » Mon Apr 16, 2012 8:36 pm

Since we're staying at #2, we're a lock to get a top-5 pick. Good news.

Upper Decker · Post #13 » by **Upper Decker** » Mon Apr 16, 2012 9:16 pm

Can we shut this thread down and have Ji start the lotto thread? IIRC, Ji started the 2010 lotto thread and I give him 100% credit for winning the top selection. Reverse jinx! Jay81, where you at?

Dr Positivity · Post #14 » by **Dr Positivity** » Mon Apr 16, 2012 10:06 pm

fishercob wrote:For the record, I dismiss any notion that the lottery could possibly be fixed. Back in 1984? I dunno, maybe. Now? No way. The league would expose itself to billion dollar lawsuits from defrauded franchises, owners, cities, etc. There's just no way the lottery is fixed -- especially with this ping pong ball system. They're not pulling envelopes out of a drum anymore.

The two main reasons there is 0.0000% chance the lotto is fixed: The people in the room while the draws happen include

- Team representatives
- Ernst & Young accounting firm which is ranked 8th biggest company in the USA. They're also the ones who put the teams in the envelopes.

There is 0 chance the NBA could fraud the lotto with those 2 parties there specifically to make sure it isn't rigged

Jay81 · Post #15 » by **Jay81** » Mon Apr 16, 2012 10:09 pm

But the mechanics of the ping ball machine could be rigged. I am sure there is a way to fool those in the room

Dr Positivity · Post #16 » by **Dr Positivity** » Mon Apr 16, 2012 10:21 pm

Not that I know for certain, but if E&Y is involved specifically to prevent fraud and are putting the teams in the envelopes, they'd have to be on top of making sure the ping pong ball machine is legit - If you ask me it sounds like it's their show front to back and Stern's men are just there to watch like the team representatives are...

Dat2U · Post #17 » by **Dat2U** » Mon Apr 16, 2012 10:43 pm

fishercob wrote:For the record, I dismiss any notion that the lottery could possibly be fixed. Back in 1984? I dunno, maybe. Now? No way. The league would expose itself to billion dollar lawsuits from defrauded franchises, owners, cities, etc. There's just no way the lottery is fixed -- especially with this ping pong ball system. They're not pulling envelopes out of a drum anymore.

Yep, I can understand the conspiracy theories being thrown about after the Ewing lottery but there's far too much at risk for Stern to play favorites nowadays. I wish this talk of the lottery being fixed would just die.

Post #18 » by **montestewart** » Mon Apr 16, 2012 11:12 pm

I don't give it too much thought, but I don't think the lottery's rigged. Still, 0% chance? No a chance at all? Who cares how big E&Y is? Arthur Anderson was a pretty big firm too. They're defunct now because they were "certifying" stacked decks on a far grander scale.

With all eyes on him during the lockout, Stern told some hilarious tales and barely blinked. Fear of getting caught might deter him, but fear that some people might think he rigged the lottery to give New Orleans the #1? Why would that stop him? The Hornets will have an almost one-in-six chance anyway. Will people think it was rigged if they end up winning it legitimately? Of course, so by all means, rig it if you can.

Knighthonor · Post #19 » by **Knighthonor** » Mon Apr 16, 2012 11:51 pm

Question: since there are balls drawn, is it possible to get multiple top 10 picks in the same draft?
Just asking.

Edit: I also notice people saying the tank watch is over. Does this mean that the wizards can't drop to the worst of all records in the nba?

truwizfan4evr · Post #20 » by **truwizfan4evr** » Mon Apr 16, 2012 11:56 pm

Knighthonor wrote:Question: since there are balls drawn, is it possible to get multiple top 10 picks in the same draft?
Just asking.

Edit: I also notice people saying the tank watch is over. Does this mean that the wizards can't drop to the worst of all records in the nba?

You get 1 Selection unless you have two draft picks already in the lottery. Other then that you just get one pick.