How Should The Jays Fill Their Holes?

[Raptor04]

Right now, there is a lot of talk on whether the Jays should be a buyer or seller at the trade deadline, but how can the most pressing needs be filled most logically? Yes, starting pitchers are definitely the biggest concern, but would trading for one right now eliminate the chance of obtaining a better one in free agency?

In that case, what are the Jays most pressing needs? Right now you could argue that we have the following positions covered well into next season:

SP- Romero (signed long-term)
SP- Morrow (signed long-term)
C- D'Arnaud
3B- Lawrie
RF- Bautista
CF- Gose
LF- Rasmus
RP- Janssen
RP- Santos

That's over 1/3 of our 25 man roster that is guaranteed to carry over into next season barring a major trade (which looks unlikely except for Janssen, who will most likely be kept). That leaves us with the following positions to cover:

(3) more starting pitchers
(1) backup catcher
(2) power bats/offensive threats (1B/DH)
(2) starting 2B/SS
(1) backup 2B/SS
(6) relief-pitchers
(1) backup OF- Davis or Snider

Starting Pitchers

Internal: Henderson Alvarez, Drew Hutchinson, Brett Cecil, Aaron Laffey, Jesse Litsch, Dustin McGowan
Trade Targets: Matt Garza, Wandy Rodriguez, Felix Hernandez
Free Agent Targets: Cole Hamels, Zack Greinke, Shaun Marcum, Brandon McCarthy, Francisco Liriano, Ryan Dempster, Anibal Sanchez, Carlos Villanueva

I think in this situation, we need to go after one of the prime FA pitchers and throw big money at them (something like starting at $18 mil/year) and hang on to both Alvarez and Hutchinson (who have both shown enough at this point to be given a chance as the 4/5 starters). Beyond next season, we could even look to trade one of them and make another splash in 2014 FA, which would take us well into when our minor league crop starts to crack the surface.

Have Villanueva re-signed to remain as long-relief (and give us that injury depth for our starters) and assign Laffey/Cecil/Litsch/McGowan to AAA until an opportunity opens up or they can yield something in a trade package.

Power Bats/Offensive Threats

Internal: Adam Lind, David Cooper, Travis Snider
Trade Targets: Justin Upton, ?
Free Agents: Edwin Encarnacion, David Ortiz, Lance Berkman, Travis Hafner, Adam LaRoche, Mike Napoli, Nick Swisher

This is where the real bucks will come for the Jays offense. I think Edwin gets re-signed to a decent contract that pays him around $10mil/season. Now, depending on what level of talent the Jays can lure with a package of players, I'd say it wouldn't be worth it unless we can get an elite bat (Justin Upton level). Otherwise, it makes sense to dip into the FA market and give someone a big payday (which will be a risk and may not be the best dollar value, but an overpayment of even $5 million/year should be done since we're getting such a bargain on Jose's contract). I wouldn't mind taking a shot at Ortiz.

I'd say Lind is hopefully able to boost his value enough this season to trade him, otherwise he can remain here and come off the bench for us. Cooper and Snider should have decent value on the trade market already, so trading one and keeping another as extra depth in the minors would be ideal.

Backup Catcher

Internal: JP Arencibia, Yan Gomes
Free Agents: Jeff Mathis

This makes sense to address internally. I'd be more than happy to bring back Mathis on a cheap deal to backup D'Arnaud. Yan Gomes would be a good option too, however I think we'd need to have a veteran presence rather than 2 young players. Arencibia can hopefully boost his value enough to become valuable trade bait.

2B/SS Starters/Bench

Internal: Yunel Escobar, Adeinny Hechavarria
Trade Targets: ?
Free Agents: Kelly Johnson, Jeff Baker, Mike Fontenot, Maicer Izturis, Jeff Keppinger, Jose Lopez, Yuniesky Betancourt, Marco Scutaro,

I'm personally not too familiar with this position in terms of good trade or FA options. However, I do think that it makes sense for us to enter the season with both Escobar and Hech pencilled in as our daily starters. That's because they are both signed to make a combined $7.75 million next season, which is very respectable considering how good their defense is. I think KJ will still command an overpayment in a weak 2B free agent class. Along with those two, sign a cheap utility player who can spell either player once or twice a week. Save the bigger bucks for other positions.

Relief Pitchers

Internal: Marcus Stroman, Chad Beck, Darren Oliver
Jays Free Agents: Jason Frasor, Carlos Villanueva, Luis Perez, Joel Carreno
Other Free Agents: ?

First off, the Jays will want to re-sign Carlos Villanueva. He's shown so far that he can be a great long-relief pitcher with the possibility to add depth as an injury replacement starter. Oliver's option should also be a no-brainer for the Jays to pick up. In addition, Stroman and Beck should be likely candidates. The remaining two positions will go towards low-cost veterans on the market.

(I didn't bother to speculate on them, since there are just too many options on the market. The main thing is, we'll be looking for 2 veteran relievers).

[Raptor04]

*Feel free to name any players who you think should be added into the mix and I'll update the list with them*

I'd love if we went into next season with this lineup:

SP- Greinke/Hamels lite ($18m)
SP- Morrow ($8m)
SP- Romero ($7.75m)
SP- Alvarez
SP- Hutchinson

CF- Gose
LF- Rasmus
RF- Bautista ($14m)
DH- Ortiz ($16m)
3B- Lawrie
1B- Encarnacion ($9m)
2B- Escobar ($5m)
C- D'Arnaud
SS- Hechavarria ($2.75m)

RP- Santos ($2.75m)
RP- Janssen ($3.9m)
RP- Oliver ($3m)
RP- Stroman
RP- Beck
RP- Villanueva
RP- (Veteran)

BP- Mathis
BP- Davis ($3m)
BP- (Backup 2B/SS)
BP- Gomes

Anyone have any idea how much the other players would cost? I count around $92 million in salaries so far, maybe a little too optimistic?

[Homer Jay]

I don't know if Stro will be in the 'Pen next year. We're really killing his 1) Trade Value 2) Outright potential making him a reliever already. We got to at least give him a chance to start. One year in AA... see how it works. I think Perez will be back next year as well. Frasor could be coming back too Drabek may be done for good (poor kid).

I simply just don't see Rogers spending the money on Greinke/Hamels. We may spend money on a FA pitcher, but all the Garza/Rodriguez talk makes me think that AA and Rogers would rather convert assets into a starter above paying the FA premium. Honestly I think a good target could be Shawn Marcum. Known commodity, plays well in the Dome and might be half the price.

I also worry that somebody will offer something truly stupid to EE (Like 10 mil a year). I don't see us starting with three rookies playing everyday either. Gose is probably the most likely to be an everydayer next season, but I only see D'Arnaud doing that if JPA is gone. Hech is probably the least likely to be the one getting a starting job. He could start the season as a utility infielder and push Esco out the door or over to 2B.

[kwamebargnani]

BP- Davis ($0.5m)

He'd cost 3m.

[satyr9]

Yeah, buyout for Davis is 0.5, which is why it's listed on Cott's that way, as it's the guaranteed portion. To keep is definitely more.

As for the 18m for a premium starter, it's too little for the top two and way too much for the rest of the FAs. Greinke/Hamels are both going to be 22-23m minimum and I think competition drives them well far closer to the 25m range. It's sick and scary, but 6/140 is pretty much the bottom end of what they'll get. I know that's significantly above what Cain got, but one rarely goes wrong assuming at least 3-5 owners are willing to spend 15% more than the last guy did.

[Raptor04]

I don't know if Stro will be in the 'Pen next year. We're really killing his 1) Trade Value 2) Outright potential making him a reliever already. We got to at least give him a chance to start. One year in AA... see how it works. I think Perez will be back next year as well. Frasor could be coming back too Drabek may be done for good (poor kid).

I simply just don't see Rogers spending the money on Greinke/Hamels. We may spend money on a FA pitcher, but all the Garza/Rodriguez talk makes me think that AA and Rogers would rather convert assets into a starter above paying the FA premium. Honestly I think a good target could be Shawn Marcum. Known commodity, plays well in the Dome and might be half the price.

I also worry that somebody will offer something truly stupid to EE (Like 10 mil a year). I don't see us starting with three rookies playing everyday either. Gose is probably the most likely to be an everydayer next season, but I only see D'Arnaud doing that if JPA is gone. Hech is probably the least likely to be the one getting a starting job. He could start the season as a utility infielder and push Esco out the door or over to 2B.

Makes sense on Stroman, I guess the main thing to note is that we should likely fill our BP needs internally through the farm or on cheap veteran contracts. And I could see Perez or Frasor coming back, really it will be the best they can get for cheap (I don't see us needing or wanting to make a huge splash in the BP).

I'll also agree that those two will command hefty prices on the market. Really, the Jays don't need to go for that "cornerstone" type pitcher that can be a franchise face. When saying Hamels/Grienke lite I was referring more towards the proven, top of the line starters. As long as we can pick up someone who has a proven track record, our offense doesn't require those shutout pitchers. Just the type that you can expect three runs a game from, but not a run more.

Thankfully, Encarnacion was re-signed for 9 million so atleast we have one potent bat returning! And while I agree three rookies may be a stretch, I could definitely see Gose and D'Arnaud starting. They've proved this year that it's time to bring them up to the next level, and as long as we retain Jeff Mathis/Rajai Davis/Travis Snider type bench players, you could argue it will be a split for PT at both those positions. They will get their fair share of starts though.

He'd cost 3m.

Yeah thanks for the heads up, I was trying to number crunch too fast and overlooked that. He'll likely be picked up if he can maintain some sort of consistency through the end of this year, but I honestly wouldn't mind going with the cheaper Snider off the bench (with Rasmus and Bautista our day to day outfielders, I could envision a split of PT between Gose and Snider)

[Lateral Quicks]

I'd like to see something like this:

Lineup
Escobar
Rasmus
Bautista
Ortiz
Encarnacion
Lawrie
d'Arnaud
Snider
Scutaro

Rotation
Morrow
Romero
Rodriguez (or similar)
Hutch
Alvarez

Sign Scutaro as an inexpensive yet decent 2B option. Bring Ortiz in to replace Lind at DH. If everyone is healthy, I'm fine with only one starter being added. That would, however, require bringing Villa back as insurance, as well as a willingness by AA to quickly acquire more pitching if needed. If you can add a second decent pitcher with the expendable assets (JPA, Thames/Snider, prospects), then do it.