New MLB National TV Deal

[baulderdash77]

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20121002&content_id=39362362&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

We never did discuss this on this forum. Last week MLB signed a 12.4 billion 8 year deal with Turner, ESPN & Fox to kick in for the 2014 season.

Each team will receive approximately 51 million per season from this deal, up from 25 million under the old deal.

It's likely that it will be just like the current deals some owners will pocket all or most of this revenue and some will put it into their product. How will Rogers deal with this wash of cash?

[Kaizen]

What is the point of asking this? 95% of the posters on this site think they will pocket it. I will take your word for it but where are you getting the $25 million and $51 million figures from?

It says the new deals do not go into effect until 2014. Deal does not help next year.

[baulderdash77]

Even a cynical poster has to think that they'll put at least 1/2 of the money into the product starting next year.

The big issue is what % goes in. Does this cause a bubble of inflation for next year's FA class or does it get phased in over a few years.

[satyr9]

What is the point of asking this? 95% of the posters on this site think they will pocket it. I will take your word for it but where are you getting the $25 million and $51 million figures from?

It says the new deals do not go into effect until 2014. Deal does not help next year.

First, 53.33 is 12,800/8/30, so equal shares of the 12.8billion over the 8 years for all teams. I'd imagine some part of that is supposed to be playoff money, that only playoff teams get, but I'm guessing and could easily be wrong. Even so, 50ish is all you need to know and it's a big bump.

25m, I'm not sure about, but the article does say it's more than 100% increase, so the old system was less than half of 53.33m, and 25m is pretty close. And I'm hardly well read on the subject, baulder could have that sourced too.

As for 2014, that's right it doesn't cover next year, but it does let the Jays bank the attendance increase or a one-time injection to boost payroll fully, knowing it's backed up by more money next year. Any kind of business under normal circumstances won't take newly increased sales and bank them for all time going forward, they hedge their bets against it being a temporary spike (meaning with the Jays might only commit to half the attendance or less as a baseline for future years). The new money starting in 2014 let's the Jays play with that money like it's for good, 'cause it's covered by something else after. I'd hazard a guess the extra attendance last year was worth about 15m from last year, I'm just making up some numbers, but my guess is I'm in a fairly wide-ranging ballpark (10-20ish million). Local tv is pretty much impossible to guesstimate, 'cause regardless of ratings you can't judge what Rogers pays the Jays on the books for the rights. Still let's assume they aren't totally deaf to the fans and will cough up some money in that regard too, whether officially or as a one-time here's some dough to last until we have to officially re-negotiate you some more money.

That'd give the Jays room to do a 20m or so increase this offseason without banking the national tv money in advance (meaning there could be more money again next year or it could cover this year's increase if attendance takes a hit next year). If you want to get really as outrageously optimistic as possible, let say there's 15m in attendance money, Rogers gives them the 25m they will be getting from national a year early as a one-time bump, and there's some more local tv money. At that point you'd be talking about a 50m bump instead of 15-20. Now, that's outrageous and I wouldn't expect it for a second, but it's an upper threshold for the angry fans to pitch a fit about when it isn't done.

To me, nothing about AA's tenure suggests he wants to go balls out on a make or break kind of offseason, so I expect some splash, but not enough to sate the ravenous hordes. The only question I have is whether Rogers execs decide they want to overrule and force some PR money into a big name. That's not a negative as long as it isn't the equivalent of Kovalchuk in NJ or something, where AA and Beeston don't even want the guy (I'm looking at you Jawsh and your 7 year demands). If it's a big deal for a big name, but AA feels the negotiations have gone too high and Rogers steps in and says we've got the balance, get the guy, then it'd be good for us as fans, but despite some posters who feel like there opinion should be counted as fact, I'd say there's no way in hell for us to know about inter-company discussions or attitudes, so we're just throwing darts at the board in this regard.

[torontoaces04]

What a loaded question. Rogers mouthpieces (AA, Beeston, Davidi) have already come out and said that they'll spend more. The problem is, it's a season too late, because there isn't much talent in this FA class. Think I'm kidding, just think about how good Mark Buehrle would look right now!

The only question now is, how much will the payroll go up? 5 mill, 10 mill, 15 mill,...dare I ask it...20 mill?!?