AA faces long climb to be legitimate playoff contender

[LittleOzzy]

The burning question north of the border, one that cannot be answered until next September is this. Are the 2013 Blue Jays, as put together in a stunning off-season of trades and signings by GM Alex Anthopoulos, good enough to compete for a playoff position, still playing into October?

On paper, the answer seems to be yes. The Jays have added almost $50 million in team payroll, bringing in all-stars at shortstop, left field and a hugely revamped rotation that sees last year’s Opening Day starter Ricky Romero clearly become the fifth man. What a turnaround. But there are no mortal locks in major-league baseball. Ask the ’11 Red Sox. Ask last year’s Angels and Miami Marlins. Those teams were built to win with impactful off-season moves, only to come up short.

But at least Anthopoulos must receive marks for the effort, the buzz he has created in what has been an NHL-free offseason. It started in mid-November when a simple effort to land one Marlins starting pitcher, Josh Johnson, swirled into a blockbuster 12-player trade that shocked the baseball world and changed the perception of the Jays from small-market to deep-pocketed, big-time players in the AL East.

Consider that the Jays’ 2013 rotation of R.A. Dickey, Brandon Morrow, Mark Buehrle, Johnson and Romero will combine to earn $45.5 million. In 2005, just seven years ago, in the fourth year of former GM J.P. Ricciardi’s regime, the entire 25-man Blue Jays roster earned $45.7 million.

Consider the almost complete overhaul of the roster by Anthopoulos since taking over from Ricciardi, the final weekend of the ’09 season.

Left over from Anthopoulos’s first Opening Day roster of his initial season in charge, an unremarkable loss to the Rangers on April 5, 2010 in Arlington, are just six players from that 25-man active roster. Further, from the entire 44-man group that played in Toronto in 2010, there are just eight players left in the organization led by an entirely new coaching staff. This is his team.

http://www.thestar.com/sports/baseball/ ... er-griffin

[Raptor_Guy]

I'm so sick of people comparing the 2013 Jays to the 2012 Miami Marlins.

[Duffman100]

Article has a point. We have to prove it.

please prove it...

[TreyTone]

I'm so sick of people comparing the 2013 Jays to the 2012 Miami Marlins.

Yeah same here. What they fail to realize is our core is much better than what the Marlins had before they went on their free agent spending spree.

[The_Hater]

I'm so sick of people comparing the 2013 Jays to the 2012 Miami Marlins.

Yeah same here. What they fail to realize is our core is much better than what the Marlins had before they went on their free agent spending spree.

That's a popular belief but it doesn't make it true.

The Marlins won 72 games in 2011, Jays 73 in 2012. Both teams had key injuries the previous season that hurt their record (Ramirez/Johnson for Marlins). The Marlins had much better returning SP with Johnson, Sanchez and Nolosco. Jays were probably returning a better starting lineup in 2012 but the Marlins still had Stanton, Ramirez, G.Sanchez, Infante, Boni. Buck and Morrison returning so many of their positions were already set.

I actually think the key difference is that the Jays have done far more to improve their team this offseason than the Marlins did last offseason. The starting points weren't all that much different.

The funny thing is that most people had the Marlins winning between 87-90 games last season and knocking on the door of the playoffs. Before the Dickey trade, that's exactly where I would have put the Jays. The Jays have a lot more room for error with Dickey on board.

[dagger]

ESPN analytics currently projecting 93 wins for Jays.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove12/story ... oved-teams

1. Toronto Blue Jays
It isn't often there's a unanimous verdict in any poll. But this one was easy. The Blue Jays lost 89 games in 2012. They're viewed as the early favorites in the AL East in 2013. And even if that's arguable, it tells you all you need to know about what they've done.

They've traded for three starting pitchers (R.A. Dickey, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson) who averaged 209 innings apiece last season. They've added a dynamic leadoff man (Jose Reyes), a guy who hit .346/.390/.516 (Melky Cabrera) before the test-tube police nabbed him, and two players (Emilio Bonifacio and Maicer Izturis) who give them the depth and versatility they lacked in 2012. So what's not to like?

"They've basically traded for a No. 1, a No. 2 and a No. 3 starter," said one AL executive. "And that's remarkable, in and of itself."

"This isn't just a one-year fix," said an NL exec. "Outside of Josh Johnson [a year from free agency], they have most of these guys under control for two or three years. In two or three years, if Reyes is still playing like hell and Buehrle is the same guy, and Dickey still looks like he'll keep doing this till he's 50, they might still be the team to beat."

"I give them a lot of credit," said another NL exec. "They recognized that right now, the Red Sox and Yankees aren't the Red Sox and Yankees. The AL East isn't the AL East like it used to be. They saw a window of opportunity, and they're going for it. A lot of teams never take that swing. At least they took it."

[LittleOzzy]

93 wins?

That would be crazy.

[Randle McMurphy]

93 wins?

That would be crazy.

Also realistic considering the talent that's been assembled.

[Chevy Chase]

93 wins?

That would be crazy.

That's my number. Call me maybe?

[Ado05]

93 wins?

That would be crazy.

Also realistic considering the talent that's been assembled.

And kind of an expectation?

[Schad]

Also realistic considering the talent that's been assembled.

Indeed...anything less than 90 would be pretty disappointing, really, as that's probably the minimum threshold to reach the playoffs, barring a massive step back by the Yankees.

[flatjacket1]

Also realistic considering the talent that's been assembled.

Indeed...anything less than 90 would be pretty disappointing, really, as that's probably the minimum threshold to reach the playoffs, barring a massive step back by the Yankees.

If the number was 93, I'm taking over. I think 95-97 wins.

[James_Raptors]

For what it's worth, I had the Jays pegged in at 87 wins (if memory serves me correct) before the R.A Dickey trade was made.

[satyr9]

Here's my prediction:

Offense: 791 R, .261/.326/.418/.744
Pitching: 669 R, 3.88ERA, 1.29WHIP

I won't tell you what went into that, but basically it was a wonderful waste of time trying to wait out the clock at work this week. And I actually feel like the underlying stats are based on very conservative, but reasonable, estimates for health and production, although I think the underlying production I came up with suggests 791 R as a little high.

Expected pythag from those runs = 94.4 wins, round down for a 94-68 record. Looking at how their numbers could break down compared to other teams, I find they're closest in profile to last year's Nationals (although final R output is almost identical to last year's Yankees) for how they generate and stop runs, which would be pretty sweet obviously.

[The_Hater]

Here's my prediction:

Offense: 791 R, .261/.326/.418/.744
Pitching: 669 R, 3.88ERA, 1.29WHIP

I won't tell you what went into that, but basically it was a wonderful waste of time trying to wait out the clock at work this week. And I actually feel like the underlying stats are based on very conservative, but reasonable, estimates for health and production, although I think the underlying production I came up with suggests 791 R as a little high.

Expected pythag from those runs = 94.4 wins, round down for a 94-68 record. Looking at how their numbers could break down compared to other teams, I find they're closest in profile to last year's Nationals (although final R output is almost identical to last year's Yankees) for how they generate and stop runs, which would be pretty sweet obviously.

In 2012 those numbers would have put the team 3rd in the AL in runs scored and 6th in ERA. I'm not using a formula but I figure the pitching will be a bit better than that and the batting maybe a tad worse.

[satyr9]

In 2012 those numbers would have put the team 3rd in the AL in runs scored and 6th in ERA. I'm not using a formula but I figure the pitching will be a bit better than that and the batting maybe a tad worse.

I think I agree with you, but I did everything I could to keep my personal bias out and let the numbers do it themselves. Of course that doesn't exclude bias, 'cause how and which numbers are choices, but I didn't try to massage any results to match my own expectations.

I will explain why I think the numbers under-estimate pitching in relation to the hitting though. The pitching hurts because of lots of downward trends (JJ, Buehrle, Romero) and terrible numbers for potential 7th/8th starters (I used MLB numbers for guys on 40-man to backfill for percentages of starts to try to account for injuries), so Rogers/Cecil/Lincoln, rather than trying to guess at Jenkins or Deck or someone).

In comparison to the lineup that has guys trending up or at peaks (Bautista, E5, Melky) and guys without enough sample (Lawrie). The offense also gets helped by the versatility of Boni/Izturis. Where I couldn't allow for Happ to cover all injuries just because that would be way too lucky, because Boni can take on a huge chunk of first starter out in the 9, the number of PAs that have to go to Cooper/McCoy/Sierra/Nickeas types isn't as bad, nor are their numbers as bad as the equivalent pitchers (probably mostly due to lack of sample size though).

And if you look at the underlying offensive slashline, it's far more middle-of-the-pack then the runs scored.