Blue Jays manager John Gibbons plans strong starting line-up

[LittleOzzy]

“In arranging your order of striking, see that strong hitters follow the poor batsmen, and that good baserunners precede them.”

Henry Chadwick in the 1867 edition of “Haney’s Base Ball Book of Reference”

In baseball, some thinking only has so many directions it can go in, so it almost universally stays true to its origins.

When it comes to making out a baseball lineup, the thinking behind arranging nine men into a batting order has generally never strayed too far from Chadwick’s timeless advice that is now 146 years old.

Jays manager John Gibbons echoes those thoughts himself as he ponders, in spring training, about putting together as awesome a starting nine as the franchise has had since its World Series years.

When he pens his lineup card, Gibbons will feature the “good base runners” up front in Jose Reyes at lead off and Melky Cabrera in the two hole. They will be followed by the power hitting of Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. That’s the plan and the blueprint, and it’s not likely to change, barring injury and days off.

“Reyes, that’s his job to make things happen and he does that really well,” Gibbons said. “Reyes is one of the elite leadoff guys. Having a switch hitter in the No. 2 is something some guys like . . . and some guys like players who can bunt there. But I think you need one of your best batters there, a guy who can really handle the bat against any pitching.”

“A guy who can hit with strikes on the count and if you make a mistake (the pitcher) he can run one out of the park. If there’s too much focus on Reyes, Melky can do a job and then we get to the run producers (Bautista and Encarnacion). Jose is the fear factor you need. “

As easy and ready as those top four Jays hitters appear to be in the thinking behind a batting order, there is an art to situating all nine players. Managers for decades have pondered what may work best against a certain pitcher; what talent he has at his disposal; what is the depth of his bench player corps; what speed he has at his disposal; how to arrange things so that his best hitters actually see strikes instead of off speed stuff and attempts to pitch around their power. The intangibles are endless, and the end result of a lineup is to strike balance.

Gibbons knows that, and so do some of the other managers in the Jays organization.

Balance may be the key to the art.

http://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/ ... ineup.html

[RINSE]

That top 4 is so awesome. Can't get over it.

[Schad]

“Reyes, that’s his job to make things happen and he does that really well,” Gibbons said. “Reyes is one of the elite leadoff guys. Having a switch hitter in the No. 2 is something some guys like . . . and some guys like players who can bunt there. But I think you need one of your best batters there, a guy who can really handle the bat against any pitching.”

The sad thing is that merely recognizing that having a good hitter hitting frequently sets Gibbons apart from some in the profession.

[Avenger]

If the only strategic move Gibby makes all year is consistently platoon Lind and sit his ass down against lefties, i would be satisfied with his performance. If he can take it a step further and do it with Rasmus and use a platoon pair at 2B (Izturis and Bonifacio, although the splits are close here) and Catcher(with Thole and Arencibia) then i would be ecstatic.

If he maximises the offensive potential on this team, there's not many weak spots in the lineup, the Jays could focus on getting another starter like Marcum at the trade deadline.

Here are the lineups i want to see

Against Righties
Reyes (S)
Cabrera(S)
Bautista(R)
Encarnacion(R)
Lind(L)
Lawrie(R)
Rasmus(L)
Thole(L)
Izturis(S)

Against Lefties
Reyes(S)
Cabrera(S)
bautista(R)
Encarnacion(R)
Lawrie(R)
Arencibia(R)
Davis(R)
DeRosa(R)(could be switched with Izturis if DeRosa turns out to be too awful)
Bonifacio(S)

If Gibby sticks to these lineups, its hard to see how the Jays won't have the best or the second best offence in the AL.

[wtcantfw]

If the only strategic move Gibby makes all year is consistently platoon Lind and sit his ass down against lefties, i would be satisfied with his performance. If he can take it a step further and do it with Rasmus and use a platoon pair at 2B (Izturis and Bonifacio, although the splits are close here) and Catcher(with Thole and Arencibia) then i would be ecstatic.

If he maximises the offensive potential on this team, there's not many weak spots in the lineup, the Jays could focus on getting another starter like Marcum at the trade deadline.

Here are the lineups i want to see

Against Righties
Reyes (S)
Cabrera(S)
Bautista(R)
Encarnacion(R)
Lind(L)
Lawrie(R)
Rasmus(L)
Thole(L)
Izturis(S)

Against Lefties
Reyes(S)
Cabrera(S)
bautista(R)
Encarnacion(R)
Lawrie(R)
Arencibia(R)
Davis(R)
DeRosa(R)(could be switched with Izturis if DeRosa turns out to be too awful)
Bonifacio(S)

If Gibby sticks to these lineups, its hard to see how the Jays won't have the best or the second best offence in the AL.

So JPA only plays against lefties?

[Raptor_Guy]

“Reyes, that’s his job to make things happen and he does that really well,” Gibbons said. “Reyes is one of the elite leadoff guys. Having a switch hitter in the No. 2 is something some guys like . . . and some guys like players who can bunt there. But I think you need one of your best batters there, a guy who can really handle the bat against any pitching.”

The sad thing is that merely recognizing that having a good hitter hitting frequently sets Gibbons apart from some in the profession.

Yup, you think more managers would understand:

Higher in the order = more ABs = more productivity

Jim Leyland used to say that, which was why he had Granderon leading off a lot. Yet, you have guys like John Farrel who put Mike freakin McCoy in the leadoff spot.

[Avenger]

Arencibia has a career .275 OBP and is in the bottom quartile among defensive catchers, i personally want to see him as little as possible. Thole on the other hand has a career .330 OBP(and .375 in the minors at age appropriate levels), even when he was one of the worst offensive players in the league last year he still put up a .295 OBP, much higher than JPA's career .275. Thole is seriously being overlooked, Dickey trade will be looked at much more favorably once people realize Thole can be a good player and he's actually younger than Arencibia.

edit: Forgot to mention that JPA is one of the worst in the league at framing pitches, Thole has been slightly above average.

framing (based on 2011 Fast study)
Thole = ~+1.5 runs/800 innings
Arencibia = ~-9.2 runs/800 innings

[torontoaces04]

Arencibia has a career .275 OBP and is in the bottom quartile among defensive catchers, i personally want to see him as little as possible.

Why the club continues to be so loyal to JPA is beyond me. Catcher is by far our weakest position now.

[Santoki]

Arencibia has a career .275 OBP and is in the bottom quartile among defensive catchers, i personally want to see him as little as possible.

Why the club continues to be so loyal to JPA is beyond me. Catcher is by far our weakest position now.

Arencibia had one foot out the door until the Dickey trade. If he has another poor season, they'll find a replacement. But, there's definitely no long-term solution to be found right now.

[Avenger]

Its hard to tell who's more delusional about JPA, Alex Anthopolous or the man himself who has publicly stated that he's one of the top catchers in Baseball.

[torontoaces04]

Its hard to tell who's more delusional about JPA, Alex Anthopolous or the man himself who has public stated that he's one of the top catchers in Baseball.

AA can at least blame it on posturing, and maintaining the full value of an asset...what's JPA's excuse?

I pick JPA.

[Kurtz]

You have to admit that JPA has shown massive improvement in his 2nd year on the defensive end.

Why doubt that he can improve further in year 3? He's even done a solid job handling Dickey at the WBC, despite having virtually no experience with it.

[Randle McMurphy]

If JPA didn't fully believe in his own abilities, that would be a huge warning about his confidence and mental state. But if you want to use it as another reason to hate the guy, sure, I guess that works too.

[Randle McMurphy]

You have to admit that JPA has shown massive improvement in his 2nd year on the defensive end.

Why doubt that he can improve further in year 3? He's even done a solid job handling Dickey at the WBC, despite having virtually no experience with it.

It was significant. I'd like to see what Arencibia can do in a full season in which he hasn't broken his hand or finger, particularly offensively. There's clearly room to improve there.

[Avenger]

Randle, you're becoming the kind of fanboy you love to rip apart on the Raptors board. Arencibia was ranked 114th among 114 qualifying catchers in 2011, he was ranked 84th among 117 in 2012, how the hell is that a massive improvement, you can chalk that upto statistical noise for the most part. If you include pitch framing stats there's nothing to suggest he's made any significant improvements on the defensive front.

Its unbelievable how people can still keep defending a guy with a career .275 OBP and whose defence ranks among the bottom quartile(at best) of catchers. There is no room for disagreement here, the facts speak for themselves.
http://blogs.thescore.com/mlb/2012/10/0 ... 2-edition/
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/1 ... e-rankings

[Randle McMurphy]

Randle, you're becoming the kind of fanboy you love to rip apart on the Raptors board.

Because I'm not going to hate on Arencibia for having confidence in himself (which is kind of a prerequisite for any elite athlete)? Quit trolling.

Arencibia was ranked 114th among 114 qualifying catchers in 2011, he was ranked 84th among 117 in 2012, how the hell is that a massive improvement, you can chalk that upto statistical noise for the most part. If you include pitch framing stats there's nothing to suggest he's made any significant improvements on the defensive front.

He went from being absolutely abysmal defensively in 2011 to being simply below average in 2012. And if you truly watched the games last season, you would know what kind of tangible difference that was. If he makes a similar jump up in 2013 (and there is no reason he couldn't), it would be even more meaningful.

Its unbelievable how people can still keep defending a guy with a career .275 OBP and whose defence ranks among the bottom quartile(at best) of catchers. There is no room for disagreement here, the facts speak for themselves.

Who's disagreeing? He's a below average starting catcher. We're stuck with him for the time being, though. And instead of choosing to hate on him and his flaws every waking moment, I've chosen to hope he can improve those flaws (or at least mitigate them by further developing his strengths). And considering he's a 27 year old, 3rd year player coming off injuries to his finger and hand in back-to-back seasons, there's a pretty good chance that we haven't seen the best of JP Arencibia yet.

[Lateral Quicks]

If JPA could improve his plate discipline even marginally his numbers would improve significantly. 118 K's vs 18 BB's in 372 PA's isn't going to cut it long term.

Thole is like the anti-JP: no power, but excellent plate discipline. Plus he's better defensively. If Thole can get over last year's injuries and return to early form, I do think he's the better all-around player. I'd much rather see him here than Blanco.

[Skin Blues]

I think a lot of Thole's "plate discipline" comes from batting in the 7th/8th spots in a terrible NL lineup for almost all of his big league plate appearances. With a pitcher and a guy that hits like a pitcher batting behind him, he probably wasn't seeing a lot of pitches to hit. I'd like to see his plate discipline stick around when he has real hitters behind him. I'm not so sure it will. And considering that's almost entirely what his batting value comes from, I'd be very concerned with giving him significant playing time.

[Lateral Quicks]

I think a lot of Thole's "plate discipline" comes from batting in the 7th/8th spots in a terrible NL lineup for almost all of his big league plate appearances. With a pitcher and a guy that hits like a pitcher batting behind him, he probably wasn't seeing a lot of pitches to hit. I'd like to see his plate discipline stick around when he has real hitters behind him. I'm not so sure it will. And considering that's almost entirely what his batting value comes from, I'd be very concerned with giving him significant playing time.

That's an interesting point I hadn't considered. There may be something to it, but I'd also point out that he had great plate discipline throughout his minor league career as well. In fact, in 1792 PA's, he walked 197 times vs. only 190 times, getting on base at a .375 clip.

[Schad]

I think a lot of Thole's "plate discipline" comes from batting in the 7th/8th spots in a terrible NL lineup for almost all of his big league plate appearances. With a pitcher and a guy that hits like a pitcher batting behind him, he probably wasn't seeing a lot of pitches to hit. I'd like to see his plate discipline stick around when he has real hitters behind him. I'm not so sure it will. And considering that's almost entirely what his batting value comes from, I'd be very concerned with giving him significant playing time.

Interesting point. He definitely draws more IBBs hitting 8th: 11 in 390 career PAs, which is extremely high. Looking at his splits, though, the opposite argument could be also made...though there's a strong BABIP component to it, he's been markedly better overall hitting 7th than 8th, likely because in the latter position he's tasked with trying to hit anything within a three county radius to prevent the pitcher from batting.