The case for LeBron 2009 as the GOAT peak

[colts18]

I already made a thread before on Shaq's case for the GOAT peak, now here is LeBron 2009's case for the GOAT peak. I'll highlight his stats, defense, team success, playoffs, clutch, 4th quarter, and teammates to show why he has a case for the GOAT peak.


Stats:
28-8-7, .591 TS%, 9.3 RAPM (1st)

31.7 PER (4th all-time), .318 WS/48 (6th all-time)

LeBron led his team in points, assists, rebounds, blocks, and steals becoming only the 4th player in history to accomplish that feat.

Team Success:
66-16 (.805)
+8.68 SRS (8.83 when LeBron played, 6th in the 3 point era)
112.4 Offensive Rating
102.4 Defensive Rating
+10.0 efficiency differential (4th in NBA history)

On court: +15.0
Off court: -6.2 off court (equivalent to this year’s Suns)
Net: +21.2 plus/minus

Top 10 total on court plus/minus since 1997:
1. 09 James +871
2. 97 Jordan +818
3. 97 Pippen +807
4. 08 Pierce +784
5. 03 Nowitzki +778
6. 97 Hornacek +775
7. 97 Malone +768
8. 07 Duncan +746
9. 08 Garnett +737
10. 00 Shaq +706


Best plus/minus since 2008:
1. 09 James +21.83
2. 09 Paul +19.65
3. 12 Griffin +18.65
4. 11 Pierce +17.75
5. 10 Durant 16.80
6. 09 Odom +16.63
7. 10 James +16.61

From 08-10, LeBron missed 14 games. Here are the results:
With: .737 win% +5.81 MOV
Without: 1-13 (.071 win%) (-7.68 MOV)
Difference: .666 win%, +13.67 MOV

Defense:

On court: 100.6 D rating (-7.7 relative to league average)
Off court: 108.8 D rating (+0.5 rel to LA)
Difference: -8.2 (According to BasketballValue.com, that difference is the 2nd highest in the league behind Pryzbilla)

The Cavs went from #1 D in the league with LeBron on the court to the equivalent of 18th when he left.

6.5 Defensive win shares (#2 in the league, only SF with more in a season are Pippen and Havlicek)

10.4 opponent counterpart PER according to 82games (equivalent to this year Alonzo Gee and Francisco Garcia)
82games also has opponent SF scoring 12.8 pts/36 and .525 TS% vs LeBron while opposing PF scored 13.3 pts/36 and .484 TS% when LeBron played PF.

Top 5 in on court defensive rating in 2009 (min. 2000 MP):
1. West: 99.2
2. LeBron 100.6
3. Odom 101.4
4. Turkoglu 101.4
5. Howard 101.8

LeBron is also 3rd in FG%, 4th in 3P%, and 3rd in eFG%.

Here is what some of the top SF of 2009 did vs LeBron offensively (their regular season per 36 in parenthesis)

Durant- 16.4 PPG, .518 TS% (23.3 PPG, .577 TS%)
Pierce- 18.1 PPG, .474 TS% (19.7 PPG, .582 TS%)
Johnson- 13.7 PPG, .475 TS% (19.5 PPG, .534 TS%)
Carmelo- 15.8 PPG, .488 TS% (23.8 PPG, .532 TS%)
Butler- 14.2 PPG, .438 TS% (19.4 PPG, .552 TS%)
Gay- 10.9 PPG, .357 TS% (18.3 PPG, .528 TS%)
Average dropoff: -5.8 PPG, -9.3 TS%

What’s amazing is that when faced Cleveland and LeBron was off the court, they dominated:

The 6 SF’s stats when (Per 36):
LeBron on court: 15.1 PPG, .461 TS%, 3.3 Reb, 3.6 AST-3.4 TOV, -9.4 +/-
LeBron off court: 24.6 PPG, .596 TS%, 5.9 Reb, 2.3 AST-1.8 TOV, +0.9 +/-

That is a 9.5 points per 36 and 13.5 TS% difference. In the playoffs, LeBron continued playing elite man defense. Here are how some of his guys did when LeBron was on the court (per 36 minutes):

Tayshaun Prince: 3.9 PPG, .260 TS%
Joe Johnson: 15.3 PPG, .480 TS%
Marvin Williams: 5.8 PPG, .337 TS%
Dropoff from regular season averages: -7.6 PPG, -18.1 TS%

Defensive stats from Hoopsstats.com for his position:
17.3 pts/game allowed (1st in league) (13.2 points per 36 minutes)
41.2 FG% allowed (1st)
15.1 FGA allowed (2nd fewest)
16.6 Efficiency allowed (1st)
1.3 Offensive rebounds allowed (3rd)

+2.8 Defensive RAPM [2nd among qualifying perimeter players (Artest)]

4th Quarter:
LeBron averaged 32 Points, 8.4 Rebounds, 7 Assists, .596 TS% per 36 minutes in the 4th quarter. When LeBron was on the court in the 4th, the Cavs had a 121.2 O Rating, 96.6 D rating (+24.6 Net). He had an absurd 44.1 Assist% in the 4th (equivalent to this year’s John Wall assist%).

In the playoffs he averaged 32-10-8, .574 TS%, 113.8 on court O rating, 98.7 D rating in the 4th quarter. His assist% in the 4th was 48% which is right around NBA Assist leader Greivis Vasquez current assist%.

Highest 4th quarter on court plus/minus from 1997 to 2013:
1. 09 James +265
2. 13 James +242 Pro-rated (Currently at +207)
3. 03 Marbury +220
4. 11 Korver +219
5. 09 Williams +212
6. 02 George +211
7. 04 Garnett +208
8. 11 Bosh +199

The Cavs were +265 (+24.5 per 100 possessions) in the 4th with LeBron on court and -97 (-13.17 per 100) without LeBron in the 4th quarter which gives LeBron a +37.7 plus/minus in the 4th quarter.

Offense:

On court: 115.6 (+7.3 relative to league average)
Off court: 102.6 (-5.7 relative to league average)
Net: +13.0 (2nd highest behind CP3).

The offense went from the equivalent of the 87 Lakers offense to the 2nd worst offense in the league in the minutes LeBron missed. The Cavs had a 39.3 3P% in 2009 which is the 12th best in history with the extended 3 point line.

Clutch:

Clutch stats (per 48): 56-13-13, 4 stl, 2 blk, .693 TS%

In the clutch, LeBron’s on court Offensive rating was 135.1 O rating, 89.5 D rating (+45.5 Net).

In the playoffs LeBron averaged 58-18-8, .696 TS%, 139.6 on court O rating, +30.5 per 48 minutes in the clutch.

Top 10 teams in clutch per 100 possessions since 1997:


2009 Cavaliers: +39.9
2013 Heat: +33.7
2011 Mavericks: +29.5
2007 Mavericks: +29.0
2006 Clippers: +27.1
2010 Cavaliers: +26.4
1998 Lakers: +26.2
1999 Magic: +25.7
2008 Cavaliers: +24.2
2004 Pacers: +23.4

LeBron is up there with Dirk in terms of GOAT clutch players.

Playoffs:

Averaged 35-9-7, .618 TS%. His 37.4 PER and .399 WS/48 are both the best in playoff history. He had a 128 O rating and 100 D rating in the playoffs. Michael Jordan has never beaten either of those numbers in a single playoff.

First 2 rounds:

In the first 2 rounds, LeBron averaged 33-10-7, .644 TS%, 139 O Rating, 90 D rating while rocking an absurd 6 turnover% and 35 usage%. LeBron controlled the game like no one has in those 2 rounds. LeBron had a 117.2 on Court offensive Rating (+9.4 relative to opponent) and 92.4 D Rating (-16.0 relative to opponent ), which gave him a +24.8 on court plus/minus. The Cavs/LeBron played elite defense in the first 2 round.

LeBron had a 43.6 PER in the first 2 rounds (46.8 PER vs. Hawks). To put that into perspective, from 1993-1998, Michael Jordan’s highest PER in a series was 35.0.

Vs Orlando:
Against the #1 defense in the league, LeBron averaged 39-8-8, .591 TS%. The Cavs had a 112.9 O rating when he was on the court. That is a +11.0 offense relative to Orlando’s regular season D rating. That would be a historic offensive playoff performance.

In 2 of Cleveland’s losses, LeBron’s on court plus/minus was positive. That means the Cavs outscored the Magic in those games, but the Cavs bench gave up the lead when LeBron was sitting.

LeBron was amazing because of his foul drawing prowess in that series. He drew 64 fouls in that series.

09 LeBron vs. Magic: 64 fouls drawn in 6 games
06 Wade vs. Mavs: 63 fouls drawn in 6 games

So he was as good as Wade who had ref help in terms of drawing fouls.

Here are the highest fouls drawn per game in the playoffs (min. 2 series) since 2006:
1. 09 LeBron 10.1
2. 10 Howard 9.7
3. 06 Duncan 9.2
4. 09 Howard 8.9
5. 08 LeBron 8.8


Teammates:

LeBron’s accomplishments are impressive when you factor his mediocre supporting cast. In the Orlando series, LeBron had 3 teammates who averaged 10+ PPG. But they combined for a .505 TS%. In the playoffs LeBron had a 37.4 PER and the 2nd best PER on his team had a 14.5 PER. That’s a 22.9 PER gap which is the highest in NBA history between the #1 and #2 guy. Of course I have to mention how his teammates collapsed when he wasn’t there to bail him out.
 

Biggest SRS dropoff in history:
1. 99 Bulls -15.82 (MJ/Pippen/Rodman)
2. 11 Cavs -15.05 (LeBron)
3. 97 Spurs -13.91 (Drob injured)
4. 91 Nuggets -11.88 (English)
5. 83 Rockets -10.73 (Moses)

If you look at some of LeBron’s highest minutes played guys, they have fallen off without LeBron.

Big Z- Out of the league 1 year later
Mo Williams- Went from 2nd option to 6th man the next year
Delonte West- Out of the league
Varejao- Same player, but injury prone
Ben Wallace- Out of the league
Wally- 2009 was his final year, out of the league
Pavlovic- 10th man after he left Cleveland
Boobie Gibson- Bench player
Joe Smith- Out of the league
Hickson- Became one of the worst players in the league before bouncing back this year

One day people will look back and be amazed that LeBron won 66 games with Mo Williams and Delonte West as his #2 and #3 options

[colts18]

More stats on LeBron:

Best RAPM since 2001:
1. 10 LeBron 9.8
2.09 LeBron 9.3
3. 07 Duncan 8.8
4.11 Dirk 8.6
5.10 Wade 8.4

Best xRAPM since 1991:
1. 10 LeBron 11.9
2. 09 LeBron 11.3
3. 01 Shaq 11.2
4. 05 Duncan 10.9
5. 02 Shaq 10.5
6. 04 Shaq 10.4
7. 04 Duncan 10.3
8. 03 Duncan 10.3
9. 04 KG 10.2
10. 07 Duncan 10.2


Best on court Net +/- since 2001 minimum 2400 MP (80 games*30 MPG):
1. 09 LeBron +15
2. 08 Pierce +14.2
3. 07 Duncan +13.8
4. 07 Bowen +13.7
5. 05 Nash +12.7

Best PER since 2002:
1. 09 LeBron 31.7
2. 10 LeBron 31.1
3. 13 LeBron 31.2
4. 12 LeBron 30.7
5. 09 Wade 30.4

Best WS/48 since 2002:
1. 09 LeBron .318
2. 13 LeBron .313
3. 10 LeBron .299
4. 12 LeBron .298
5. 09 CP3 .292

Best team SRS since 2002:
1. 08 Celtics/KG 9.31
2. 09 Cavs/LeBron 8.68
3. 07 Spurs/Duncan 8.35
4. 03 Mavs/Dirk 7.31
5. 05 Spurs/Duncan 7.84

Best O rating since 2002, minimum 25 usage%:
1. 08 CP3 125
2. 13 LeBron 124
3. 09 CP3 124
4. 08 Amare 124
5. 07 Dirk 123

Playoffs, minimum 400 MP

Best PER since 2002:
1. 09 LeBron 37.4 (best in history)
2. 08 CP3 30.7
3. 03 Shaq 30.6
4. 06 Duncan 30.4
5. 12 Lebron 30.3
6. 10 LeBron 28.6


Best playoff WS/48 since 2002:
1. 09 LeBron .399 (best in history)
2. 08 CP3 .289
3. 12 LeBron .284
4. 03 Duncan .279
5. 06 Dirk .263

Best playoff O Rating, minimum 25 Usage%:
1. 09 LeBron 128
2. 08 CP3 126
3. 07 Baron 124
4. 05 Ginobili 124
5. 06 Dirk 124

[Not Bias]

Still nice numbers in all. Problem is unlike Jordan or Shaq, he didn't win.

[colts18]

Still nice numbers in all. Problem is unlike Jordan or Shaq, he didn't win.

That doesn't preclude him from the GOAT peak conversation. No one is winning a title when they are relying on Mo Williams as their #2 option.

[Black Feet]

No not at all, people rely too much on stats when trying to evaluate how good a player is. Lebron last year was a much better player as well as this year. To answer the Question Goat peak belongs to either Shaq or MJ no one else should be discussed.

[JulesWinnfield]

If 09 LeBron doesn't win a title with the 09 Cavs, I don't know who does. You basically couldn't play any better that postseason, even in the losing effort vs Orlando. It's amazing to me that people still can't see just how brutal those supporting casts were, and how amazing it was that he made the Cavs as relevant as they were.

Great post Colts, i appreciate the work

[Rasho_libre]

Current lebron is alot better

[aal04]

Current lebron is alot better

skill wise yes. Athletically? Hard to tell.

Mentally? Hell no.

LBJ wanted the ball, he wanted the glory, his lust for winning was far far better in 2009. thats why I also rate 2009 as LBJ peak (so far). He still has the skills and athleticism to re-peak. But I don't know if his mind is up to the task. Its a lot harder when you have to really tell Ray, Wade, Bosh to sit down and watch him go HAM GOAT. And it wouldn't make the team any better either. Hes stuck in a funny situation in regards to peaks.

[sisibilio]

2009 had a worse team therefore he had to do create everything but 2013 LeBron is a much better player, I don't know how can anyone think otherwise.

[An Unbiased Fan]

If 09 LeBron doesn't win a title with the 09 Cavs, I don't know who does. You basically couldn't play any better that postseason, even in the losing effort vs Orlando. It's amazing to me that people still can't see just how brutal those supporting casts were, and how amazing it was that he made the Cavs as relevant as they were.

Great post Colts, i appreciate the work

That was a very good supporting cast built around Lebron's playing style.

But to the thread topic, of course not. Lebron wasn't even the best player that year. The 09 Cavs didn't lose to the Lakers...they lost to a Magic team without their PG. Lebron was a far superior players by 2012, and the fact that people choose 2009 as his peak only points out how overblown stats can be.

[Dupp]

That's probably Lebron's best individual season to date (baring this current season) but he's a better player now.

He's got that same 09 mentality back too since he got the monkey off the back last year and has a much more rounded game. Not to mention his defense since joining miami is on a completely other level compared to even 09.

Maybe numbers wise its a high peak but i think that's where numbers don't always tell the whole story because this right now is his peak. Of course we have to wait until playoffs to see if he continues to produce but im sure he will.

[Not Bias]

If 09 LeBron doesn't win a title with the 09 Cavs, I don't know who does. You basically couldn't play any better that postseason, even in the losing effort vs Orlando. It's amazing to me that people still can't see just how brutal those supporting casts were, and how amazing it was that he made the Cavs as relevant as they were.

Great post Colts, i appreciate the work

That was a very good supporting cast built around Lebron's playing style.

But to the thread topic, of course not. Lebron wasn't even the best player that year. The 09 Cavs didn't lose to the Lakers...they lost to a Magic team without their PG. Lebron was a far superior players by 2012, and the fact that people choose 2009 as his peak only points out how overblown stats can be.

How so?? Lebron was for sure the best player that season, the closest player to Lebron's level that season was Wade.

[An Unbiased Fan]

If 09 LeBron doesn't win a title with the 09 Cavs, I don't know who does. You basically couldn't play any better that postseason, even in the losing effort vs Orlando. It's amazing to me that people still can't see just how brutal those supporting casts were, and how amazing it was that he made the Cavs as relevant as they were.

Great post Colts, i appreciate the work

That was a very good supporting cast built around Lebron's playing style.

But to the thread topic, of course not. Lebron wasn't even the best player that year. The 09 Cavs didn't lose to the Lakers...they lost to a Magic team without their PG. Lebron was a far superior players by 2012, and the fact that people choose 2009 as his peak only points out how overblown stats can be.

How so?? Lebron was for sure the best player that season, the closest player to Lebron's level that season was Wade.

The best player in the post-season was Kobe, the best in the regular season was Lebron. It would have been nice to see them battle in the Finals, but of course, the Cavs didn't make it that far.

[Not Bias]

The best player in the post-season was Kobe, the best in the regular season was Lebron. It would have been nice to see them battle in the Finals, but of course, the Cavs didn't make it that far.

Okay, you expect a team with Mo Williams as the 2nd option, going to the finals??

[Illhavethelary]

Kobe was better than LeBron in the 09 post season. LeBron outperformed and outproduced Kobe against that same magic squad, the difference was his supporting cast wasn't close to Kobe's.

[An Unbiased Fan]

The best player in the post-season was Kobe, the best in the regular season was Lebron. It would have been nice to see them battle in the Finals, but of course, the Cavs didn't make it that far.

Okay, you expect a team with Mo Williams as the 2nd option, going to the finals??

That team won 66 games and had a 6+ SRS. Mo was an all-star that year(18 ppg on 59% TS is not bad for a 2nd option), and the team was constructed around Lebron.

So yeah, I expected them to beat a Jameer-less Magic squad, and not lose in 6 games with HCA.

[WinisKing]

If 09 LeBron doesn't win a title with the 09 Cavs, I don't know who does. You basically couldn't play any better that postseason, even in the losing effort vs Orlando. It's amazing to me that people still can't see just how brutal those supporting casts were, and how amazing it was that he made the Cavs as relevant as they were.

Great post Colts, i appreciate the work

That was a very good supporting cast built around Lebron's playing style.

But to the thread topic, of course not. Lebron wasn't even the best player that year. The 09 Cavs didn't lose to the Lakers...they lost to a Magic team without their PG. Lebron was a far superior players by 2012, and the fact that people choose 2009 as his peak only points out how overblown stats can be.

Too bad they shot 30% vs the Magic, and no, Kobe was never as good as Lebron. Give Lebron the same Laker team he had that year and I doubt they wouldn't even lose a game to the Magic

[GreenHat]

If 09 LeBron doesn't win a title with the 09 Cavs, I don't know who does. You basically couldn't play any better that postseason, even in the losing effort vs Orlando. It's amazing to me that people still can't see just how brutal those supporting casts were, and how amazing it was that he made the Cavs as relevant as they were.

Great post Colts, i appreciate the work

No one else wins with that team.

To me its not amazing that people can't see the lack of relative strength in the supporting cast. To me its willful ignorance. Put a gun to their heads and all of the Kobe, Jordan and Bird fans who will flock to this thread will admit that their idols had far superior teammates than the 09 Cavs. They know it but choose to ignore it because it fits their agendas.

[JulesWinnfield]

LeBron 09 vs Orlando was better than any series Kobe ever played in his life, even in a losing effort. He was in God mode. The Magic just shot the lights out though from deep (I still have visions of Rashard Lewis and Pietrus just sniping them to death every time Dwight got doubled) , Mo Williams went to sleep (Im not sure hes woken up yet), and they had no answer for Dwight inside. You couldn't play much better than Lebron did in that series. clutch late in those games too, buzzer beating three to win one, free throws to send another to OT. Was the sole offense late in all those games

[An Unbiased Fan]

Too bad they shot 30% vs the Magic, and no, Kobe was never as good as Lebron. Give Lebron the same Laker team he had that year and I doubt they wouldn't even lose a game to the Magic

You mean like the 2011 squad with Wade/Bosh who lost to a weaker Mavs team?

Kobe was the best player in that postseason, and did his damage against tough WC teams, instead of the cupcakes Lebron had in the 1st 2 rounds.